Hydrology Commons^™

The Colorado River Upper Initial Units Take Center Stage, Eric Kuhn, Anne Castle, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

In 1956, Congress authorized the Upper Initial Units—Flaming Gorge Reservoir,

Navajo Reservoir, and the Aspinall Unit (UIUs)—for a variety of water use

purposes in the Upper Colorado River Basin, including compliance with the

1922 Colorado River Compact (1922 Compact). The historical record is clear

that the primary reason these reservoirs exist is to satisfy the math of the 1922

Compact and the obligations it imposed on the Upper Division States

regarding flows at Lee Ferry.

The Colorado River Water Supply Crisis In A Few Graphs: Part 2 Agricultural Water Use In The Lower Basin, Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

Reductions in Lower Basin water use during the last four years, including

forecast use in 2026, are similar to the initial targets for Lower Basin shortages

described in the Final Environmental Impact Statement for Post-2026

Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead (FEIS)

and the accompanying Record of Decision (ROD).

6 Lower Basin consumptive

use in 2023, 2024, and 2025, and forecast for 2026 has been the smallest for

the entire 2010-2026 period. These four years of smallest use are between 1.4

and 1.7 million acre feet/year (maf/yr) less than the 7.50 maf/yr amount

generally recognized as …

Data Repository For "The Influence Of Hydrologic And Salinity Conditions On Drought-Tolerant Great Salt Lake Wetland Plant Species" By Samantha Kurkowski And Karin Kettenring, Samantha Kurkowski

Browse all Datasets

This greenhouse experiment investigated the effects of salinity (3 levels) and hydrologic condition (5 levels),  on the cover and biomass of a single mix of 11 native drought- and salt-tolerant species.

Global Performance Of Remote Sensing-Based And Reanalysis-Driven Models To Estimate Open Water Evaporation, Júlia Brusso Rossi, Ayan Santos Fleischmann, Leonardo Laipelt, Bruno Comini De Andrade, Joshua B. Fisher, Justin L. Huntington, Christopher Pearson, R. Iestyn Woolway, Roseilson Vale, Júlio Tota, Gabriel B. Senay, Huilin Gao, Anderson Ruhoff

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Evaporation plays an essential role in the water cycle, influencing local and regional climates while directly impacting water availability in lakes. However, directly measuring evaporation over water bodies remains challenging due to the high costs of installing and maintaining the required in situ instrumentation. Although several remote sensing algorithms have been providing evaporation estimates, the lack of a global validation hinders our understanding of their relative uncertainties and performances across different regions. Here, we analyze the performance of a suite of models that leverage satellite data and meteorological reanalysis to estimate evaporation over lakes worldwide. We compare 3 remote sensing‐based …

A Significant Moment In The Colorado River Water Supply Crisis, Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

On Sunday, July 12, the surface of Lake Powell was 3524.32 feet above sea level, and the surface of Lake Mead was at 1042.77 ft.7 These elevations equated to 5,505,869 and 7,169,640 acre feet (af), respectively, of live storage in the two reservoirs. The combined total live storage of these reservoirs was 12,675,509 af. The last time the combined total live storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead was this small was May 23, 1957, during construction of Glen Canyon Dam when the entire amount of 12,668,000 af was stored in Lake Mead.

Synoptic Conditions Favoring Tropical Cyclone-Enhanced Southwest Monsoon High Precipitation Events In The Philippines, Alwin Andriel L. Bathan, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

The interaction of tropical cyclones (TCs) with the southwest monsoon frequently causes heavy precipitation events (HPEs) and widespread flooding across the Philippines. Despite their substantial socio-economic impacts, the synoptic conditions that favor these events remain insufficiently understood, underscoring the need for systematic investigation to help improve forecasting and risk assessment. Lag composite analysis of daily rainfall records and reanalysis data from July to September for the period 1981–2023 shows that HPEs are more likely to occur when: (1) enhanced monsoon westerlies are present over the tropical Indian Ocean for at least nine days before the HPE, (2) a TC passes …

Hydroclimatic Whiplash Across The Contiguous United States: Characterizing Wet–Dry Transitions In Pdsi And Phdi, James Lam, Thomas Christopher Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Hydroclimatic whiplash, characterized by rapid transitions between wet and dry conditions, poses a growing challenge for water resource management and ecosystem stability. However, the spatial and statistical characteristics of wet–dry transitions across the contiguous United States are not fully understood. This study analyzed Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) records from 344 NOAA climate divisions spanning 1895–2024. Whiplash was defined as a transition between severe drought and severe wetness within 12-month rolling windows. Statistical descriptors including lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and skewness were evaluated for whiplash and non-whiplash windows to assess differences between them. Whiplash hotspots …

The Colorado River Water Supply Crisis In A Few Graphs: Part 1, Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

In 2026 and for only the third time in the 21st century, there was no accumulation, and no recovery, of total Basin live storage6 during the snowmelt season. Nor was there any accumulation or recovery of total live storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead during the 2026 snowmelt season. Total Basin live storage (hereafter, total Basin storage) is all the water available in the Colorado River Basin’s reservoir “savings account” and stored in reservoirs within the watershed.7 On June 1, total Basin storage was 22.94 million acre feet (maf), only 1.62 maf above the previous minimum of March 20238 …

Flood Risk Assessment And Water Diversion Scenarios For Terre Haute, Indiana Based On Time-Series Remote Sensing And In-Situ Measurements, Hung Q. Ha

2026 Spring Reports (Terre Haute)

The City of Terre Haute has faced growing concerns over the increasing frequency and intensity of riverine flooding along the Wabash River, alongside risks associated with urban inundation. To create more safely floodable areas – specifically by locating wetland areas using GIS and researching government ordinances on development in those areas – the City of Terre Haute sought to better understand flood patterns and identify viable floodwater diversion strategies. The project was formally titled as “Pattern of Flooding along the Wabash River in Vigo County and Scenarios for Floodwater Diversion”. Faculty and students from Geospatial Intelligence Lab, Department of Earth …

Update: Colorado River Basin Storage Continues Slide Toward System Crash, Anne Castle, Jack Schmidt, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

If the Colorado River Basin (Basin) experiences another dry year, similar to Water Year 2025, it is likely that reasonably accessible storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead would be mostly depleted, even if consumptive uses and losses are at or near historic lows. Run-of-the-river operations would shortly ensue. This would be an outcome with devastating consequences. In contrast, if next year is very wet, similar to Water Year 2023, the Basin’s largest federal reservoirs would recover somewhat, but would provide only about two years of cushion before we find ourselves again in the same position we are in today, …

Evapotranspiration Everywhere, All The Time: Towards A Unified View From Earth Observation, Joshua B. Fisher, Martha C. Anderson, Diego G. Miralles, Kanishka Mallick, Paul C. Stoy, Youngryel Ryu, Wim G. M. Bastiaanssen

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Scientists want to know everything, everywhere, and all the time. This is particularly true in Earth science, where we seek to understand processes that span from the molecular to the planetary scale in how the world works, how it affects us, and how we impact it—especially the water cycle. Evapotranspiration (ET) was the last component to be measured in closing the water cycle: for decades, closing the water budget meant adding up all the measurable components, then inferring ET as the residual. Early measurements relied on water loss from pans and weighing lysimeters, followed by sensors inserted into plants to …

Examining Extremes: A Comparison Between Machine Learning Based Southwestern Conus Seasonal Drought And High Fire Risk Event Synoptic Climatologies, Ethan M. Greenberg

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Southwestern United States (SW CONUS), comprised of California, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, is a vast region that tens of millions of people call home. Hosting ecosystems ranging from grasslands and shrublands to temperate forests and climate zones ranging from Mediterranean climates to arid deserts, the region is nearly unanimously prone to intense droughts and devastating wildfires. While fire weather conditions and drought are often studied separately or mentioned as background conditions for the other, there are relatively few studies that compare the typical meteorological conditions between the two. This study aims to more closely understand the meteorological relationship between …

Gaining Mussel: Evaluating Reintroduction Success Of Native Freshwater Mussels In Nebraska And Eastern Wyoming, Travis A. Moore

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Freshwater mussels are one of the most imperiled groups of organisms in North America, with over two-thirds of species considered threatened, endangered, or of special concern. These long-lived bivalves are essential to stream ecosystems, acting as filter feeders that improve water quality and as indicators of aquatic health. In Nebraska and Wyoming, native mussel populations have declined sharply due to habitat modification, pollution, and reduced connectivity. Two species of particular concern are the Plain Pocketbook Lampsilis cardium, listed as Tier I at-risk in Nebraska, and the Fatmucket Lampsilis siliquoidea, a Tier II at-risk species. In response, state agencies …

Passive Microwave Remote Sensing Of Flash Drought Impacts On Vegetation, Quinton R. Deppert

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

In 2002, Dr. Mark Svoboda characterized a new form of drought known as flash drought. Flash drought was defined as a rapid decline in vegetation health caused by severe heat and drought. In recent years, attempts to quantify the impacts of flash drought via precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and temperature indicators have proliferated. What has rarely been quantified is what the rapid decline in vegetation health amid flash drought looks like through remote sensing. This is because vegetation health indices like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are derived from the visible and infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum and …

Monitoring Koyna Dam Displacements Using Persistent Scatterer Interferometry, Sara Zouriq, Gehan Hamdy, Amr Fawzy, Rejoice Thomas, Hesham El-Askary, Eehab Khalil, Mohamed Elsayad, Tarik El-Salawaky

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Monitoring dam stability is critical to ensure structural safety and operational reliability. This study integrates Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) based on Sentinel-1 SAR imagery (2020–2023) with Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations to assess the behavior of the Koyna Dam in India. PSI detected crest displacements between −1.0 and −1.8 mm yr−1, while FEM simulations predicted a maximum vertical displacement of approximately −3.2 mm at the crest. Although these results represent different quantities (time-averaged displacement rates versus peak static displacement), both approaches indicate millimeter-scale deformation and a consistent pattern of settlement at the dam crest, supporting the interpretation of hydrologically driven …

Monitoring Terrestrial Ecosystem Productivity Using Hyperspectral Satellite Data, Serge Tuyambaze

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Accurate estimation of terrestrial Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) is critical for quantifying global carbon sequestration and understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle. While eddy covariance (EC) towers provide standard flux measurements, upscaling these measurements to continuous global coverage remains challenging due to the sparse distribution of flux towers and their small footprints. Remote sensing (RS), especially coupled with eddy covariance data, has been used to estimate GPP at the global scale. Different RS derived productivity models have been developed, including vegetation indices, light use efficiency (LUE) models, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM), and machine learning. One widely adapted …

Rethinking How The United States And Mexico Share The Colorado River, Eric Kuhn, Anne Castle, Carlos De La Parra, John Fleck, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

Since 1945, the United States and Mexico have managed common interests on their two largest shared rivers systems, the Colorado and the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande, under the terms of the 1944 international treaty that was designed from the beginning with tools to adapt to changing hydrologic and societal conditions. A recent emergency agreement on the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande illustrates what is possible, and with old river management rules on the Colorado both within the United States and between the United States and Mexico about to expire, we are at a moment of opportunity for meaningful change. The core problem on …

Bioclimatic Reorganization Of Carbon–Water–Energy Coupling Revealed By Eddy Covariance And Interpretable Machine Learning, Koong Yi, Margaret S. Torn, Gabriel B. Senay, Lixin Wang, Kosana Suvočarev, Joshua B. Fisher, Arman Ahmadi, Housen Chu, Gil Bohrer, Georgianne W. Moore, Stephen P. Good, Steven A. Kannenberg, Justine E. C. Missik, Kanishka Mallick, Kul Khand, Youngryel Ryu, Kuno Kasak, A. Christopher Oishi, David E. Reed, Xiangzhong Luo, Carl J. Bernacchi, Dennis Baldocchi

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Ecosystem exchanges of carbon, water, and energy are central to Earth system functioning, yet their sensitivities to environmental variability remain poorly constrained across biomes and climates. Here, we analyzed ≥ 5 years of eddy covariance data from 87 AmeriFlux sites (964 site-years) spanning six vegetation types and a broad range of climatic conditions to examine the controls and multi-year trends of gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency (WUE), and the Bowen ratio. We trained boosted regression tree ensembles with environmental (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, soil water content, atmospheric CO2, radiation, wind speed) and temporal (month, year) variables …

A Review Of Satellite-Derived Terrestrial Evapotranspiration: Theories, Methods And Products, Yunjun Yao, Jiquan Chen, Joshua B. Fisher, Changliang Shao, Yuanbo Liu

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Accurately estimating terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET), the second-largest hydrologic flux in the terrestrial water cycle, is vital for understanding global water and carbon exchanges. It is difficult to measure and estimate terrestrial ET at regional and global scales. Satellites have provided us an effective tool to estimate regional and global terrestrial ET in recent decades. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of the basic theoretical foundations, methods and products of satellite-derived terrestrial ET. The basic theoretical foundations for estimating terrestrial ET are the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and other budding theories (e.g., Maximum entropy production theory, and generalized Hamilton …

Comments On The Draft Environmental Impact Statement On Post-2026 Operational Guidelines And Strategies For Lake Powell And Lake Mead, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Katherine Tara, Kathryn Sorensen

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

Thank you for the opportunity to submit comments on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement on Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead (DEIS). The undersigned colleagues with experience in Colorado River matters commend the Bureau of Reclamation and its consultants for the tremendous effort involved in preparing this environmental impact analysis. We are especially impressed by Reclamation’s effort to analyze policy alternatives within the context of the deep uncertainty about what future hydrology might be. Your work is novel in its effort to provide the public with a sense of what the performance, robustness, and vulnerability …

A Probabilistic Deep Learning Framework For Retrieving Chlorophyll-A From Hyperspectral Imagery: Integrating Channel Attention And Mixture Density Networks, Wenzhao Li, Surendra Maharjan, Rejoice Thomas, Junde Chen, Hesham Morgan, Michael J. Garay, Olga V. Kalashnikova, Shahryar Fazli, Charles Ichoku, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Accurate monitoring of Chlorophyll-a (Chla) is critical for assessing aquatic ecosystem health, yet ecological complexity often leads to ambiguous spectral signatures in satellite data. Traditional deterministic models assume a one-to-one mapping between spectra and pigments, often failing to capture these high-dimensional analytical challenges. In this study, we propose a novel deep learning architecture, the Channel Attention-Mixture Density Network (CA-MDN), to retrieve Chla from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) hyperspectral mission. The CA-MDN integrates an attention mechanism to dynamically select ecologically relevant spectral bands and employs a probabilistic output layer to quantify …

Lake Powell And Lake Mead Are Moving In Opposite Directions -- What Gives?, Jack Schmidt, Eric Kuhn, Anne Castle, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

No abstract provided.

The World's Largest Saddle Dam At Risk: Multisensor Geohazard Analysis And Downstream Impacts, Hesham El-Askary, Hesham Morgan, Surendra Maharjan, Ali Elgendy, Wenzhao Li, Rejoice Thomas, Austin Madson, Cyril Rakovski

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Saddle Dam, which holds approximately 89% of the main reservoir's live storage, is one of the largest and most critical auxiliary dams globally; its construction on Ethiopia's Blue Nile has consequently raised significant regional and international concerns regarding potential environmental impacts and geohazard risks. This study presents a comprehensive risk assessment of the GERD Saddle Dam by integrating high-resolution satellite data (GRACE, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, WorldView-3), hydrological modeling (SWAT), Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI), geospatial analysis, and advanced statistical techniques. The results highlight critical structural vulnerabilities, including groundwater infiltration estimated at approximately 41 ± 6.2 billion …

Supporting Data – Urban Stream, Cardinal Court, Isu, Normal, November 9, 2023 To May 1, 2025, Eric Wade Peterson, Ava Miller

Faculty Publications - Geography, Geology, and the Environment

Between November 9, 2023 to May 1, 2025, water samples were collected upstream and downstream along a segment of a stream adjacent to Cardinal Court on the Illinois State University campus. At each location, samples were collected at the surface. In-situ measurements of Dissolved Oxygen, Specific Conductance, and Temperature were recorded with a YSI 85. Anion samples were analyzed using a Ion Chromatograph for fluoride (F^-), chloride (Cl^-), nitrate as nitrogen (NO3-N), phosphate (PO₄^3-), and sulfate (SO₄^2-). The available dataset provides the recorded field parameters and the analyzed ion concentrations.

A High-Resolution Daily Precipitation Fusion Framework Integrating Radar, Satellite, And Nwp Data Using Machine Learning Over South Korea, Hyoju Park, Hiroyuki Miyazaki, Menas Kafatos, Seung Hee Kim, Yangwon Lee

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

Accurate precipitation mapping is essential for effective disaster management; however, individual radar, satellite, and numerical weather prediction products often struggle in the topographically complex terrain of South Korea. This study proposes a high-resolution (~500 m) daily precipitation fusion framework that integrates Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) radar, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) data. The framework employs a Random Forest model augmented with a monthly Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function (ECDF) correction. Auxiliary predictors are incorporated to enhance physical interpretability and stability, including terrain attributes to represent orographic effects, land-cover …

Synthesis Study Of Evapotranspiration Evolution In The Mekong Delta Induced By Land Use And Land Cover Changes In The Decades Of 1990–2020, Emiliana Valentini, Serena Sapio, Son V. Nghiem, Seung Hee Kim, Sara Liburdi, Andrea Taramelli

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a key role in the water cycle and balance, and its estimation is of paramount importance in hydrological studies. This variable is also strongly influenced by the land use and land cover (LULC). This study use a synthesis approach to analyse the relationship between ET variation and LULC transformation in the period 1990–2020. The study area represents a major agricultural region in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam between the Mekong and Bassac rivers. The multivariate dataset was ingested into the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool to examine the multidecadal ET evolution across the study region. …

Considerations For Assigned Water After Expiration Of The 2007 Guidelines, Kathryn Sorensen, Sarah Porter, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

As Colorado River supplies and demands reach razor-thin margins, new tools to provide adaptive capacity will play a critical role in sustaining communities across the West. We must reduce our consumption of water, while finding ways to cushion the impact. One of the most innovative tools for doing this, developed over the last two decades, is “Assigned Water” - giving users the ability to store conserved water earmarked for their own future use. Originally developed as “Intentionally Created Surplus” in the 2007 Colorado River Interim Guidelines, Assigned Water has been revised and expanded through U.S. Mexico Treaty Minutes and as …

Nebraska Statewide Groundwater-Level Monitoring Report 2025, Aaron R. Young, Mark E. Burbach, Sue Olafsen Lackey, Robert Matthew Joeckel, Jeffrey Westrop

Conservation and Survey Division: Faculty and Staff Publications

No abstract provided.

Last Glacial Maximum And Late Glacial Aeolian Sand Activity, South-Central Indiana, Usa, H. M. Loope, J. L. Antinao, P.R. Hanson, P. M. Jacobs, D. A. Grimley

Conservation and Survey Division: Faculty and Staff Publications

No abstract provided.

On The Contribution Of The Gulf Stream To High Frequency Coastal Sea Level Variability, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Long-term Atlantic Ocean and Gulf Stream (GS) variability were linked in past studies to coastal sea level (CSL) change along the U.S. East Coast - a weakening GS can lead to rise in CSL and increased coastal flooding. However, high frequency variability (HFV) in CSL is, in most cases, attributed to atmospheric weather events. This study is focused on HFV (intraseasonal variations with periods between similar to 1 week and similar to 2 months) in the GS and in CSL. First, wavelet and spectral analysis of observations of the Florida Current transport and CSL characterized the HFV in the data, …