Hydrology Commons^™

The Colorado River Upper Initial Units Take Center Stage, Eric Kuhn, Anne Castle, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

In 1956, Congress authorized the Upper Initial Units—Flaming Gorge Reservoir,

Navajo Reservoir, and the Aspinall Unit (UIUs)—for a variety of water use

purposes in the Upper Colorado River Basin, including compliance with the

1922 Colorado River Compact (1922 Compact). The historical record is clear

that the primary reason these reservoirs exist is to satisfy the math of the 1922

Compact and the obligations it imposed on the Upper Division States

regarding flows at Lee Ferry.

The Colorado River Water Supply Crisis In A Few Graphs: Part 2 Agricultural Water Use In The Lower Basin, Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

Reductions in Lower Basin water use during the last four years, including

forecast use in 2026, are similar to the initial targets for Lower Basin shortages

described in the Final Environmental Impact Statement for Post-2026

Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead (FEIS)

and the accompanying Record of Decision (ROD).

6 Lower Basin consumptive

use in 2023, 2024, and 2025, and forecast for 2026 has been the smallest for

the entire 2010-2026 period. These four years of smallest use are between 1.4

and 1.7 million acre feet/year (maf/yr) less than the 7.50 maf/yr amount

generally recognized as …

Information Theory Analysis Of Water Vapor Stable Isotopes From The Sail Campaign, Matthew John Rybecky

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Understanding the processes that control water vapor isotopic composition in mountain environ- ments is essential for interpreting isotope records and predicting water resource responses to cli- mate change. This thesis applies information theory to continuous, high-resolution water vapor stable isotope measurements from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign in the East River watershed of Colorado’s Upper Gunnison Basin, spanning the winter- to-spring transition of 2022–2023. The analysis employs Shannon entropy, mutual information, transfer entropy, and joint transfer en- tropy (JTE) to quantify how environmental variables, including surface meteorology, radiation, tur- bulent fluxes, and ERA5 reanalysis products, transfer information …

Wildfire Impacts On Fluvial Hydrology From Watershed To National Scales, Paige G. Tunby

Civil Engineering ETDs

Wildfires alter the water quantity and quality in downstream river networks. Fires promote biodiversity, maintain habitat, and provide many ecosystem services in a fire-adapted landscape. However, changes in the natural fire regimes can alter ecosystem function and threaten the water security of impacted downstream communities. The magnitude, timing, and persistence of these impacts are difficult to predict due to the lack of high-resolution datasets with adequate coverage to evaluate spatiotemporal trends after a fire. This dissertation moves us beyond the status quo to evaluate post-fire fluvial responses across scales, from the event-scale impacts after the Hermit’s Peak-Calf Canyon wildfire in …

A Significant Moment In The Colorado River Water Supply Crisis, Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

On Sunday, July 12, the surface of Lake Powell was 3524.32 feet above sea level, and the surface of Lake Mead was at 1042.77 ft.7 These elevations equated to 5,505,869 and 7,169,640 acre feet (af), respectively, of live storage in the two reservoirs. The combined total live storage of these reservoirs was 12,675,509 af. The last time the combined total live storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead was this small was May 23, 1957, during construction of Glen Canyon Dam when the entire amount of 12,668,000 af was stored in Lake Mead.

The Colorado River Water Supply Crisis In A Few Graphs: Part 1, Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

In 2026 and for only the third time in the 21st century, there was no accumulation, and no recovery, of total Basin live storage6 during the snowmelt season. Nor was there any accumulation or recovery of total live storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead during the 2026 snowmelt season. Total Basin live storage (hereafter, total Basin storage) is all the water available in the Colorado River Basin’s reservoir “savings account” and stored in reservoirs within the watershed.7 On June 1, total Basin storage was 22.94 million acre feet (maf), only 1.62 maf above the previous minimum of March 20238 …

Update: Colorado River Basin Storage Continues Slide Toward System Crash, Anne Castle, Jack Schmidt, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

If the Colorado River Basin (Basin) experiences another dry year, similar to Water Year 2025, it is likely that reasonably accessible storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead would be mostly depleted, even if consumptive uses and losses are at or near historic lows. Run-of-the-river operations would shortly ensue. This would be an outcome with devastating consequences. In contrast, if next year is very wet, similar to Water Year 2023, the Basin’s largest federal reservoirs would recover somewhat, but would provide only about two years of cushion before we find ourselves again in the same position we are in today, …

Rethinking How The United States And Mexico Share The Colorado River, Eric Kuhn, Anne Castle, Carlos De La Parra, John Fleck, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

Since 1945, the United States and Mexico have managed common interests on their two largest shared rivers systems, the Colorado and the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande, under the terms of the 1944 international treaty that was designed from the beginning with tools to adapt to changing hydrologic and societal conditions. A recent emergency agreement on the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande illustrates what is possible, and with old river management rules on the Colorado both within the United States and between the United States and Mexico about to expire, we are at a moment of opportunity for meaningful change. The core problem on …

Comments On The Draft Environmental Impact Statement On Post-2026 Operational Guidelines And Strategies For Lake Powell And Lake Mead, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Katherine Tara, Kathryn Sorensen

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

Thank you for the opportunity to submit comments on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement on Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead (DEIS). The undersigned colleagues with experience in Colorado River matters commend the Bureau of Reclamation and its consultants for the tremendous effort involved in preparing this environmental impact analysis. We are especially impressed by Reclamation’s effort to analyze policy alternatives within the context of the deep uncertainty about what future hydrology might be. Your work is novel in its effort to provide the public with a sense of what the performance, robustness, and vulnerability …

Lake Powell And Lake Mead Are Moving In Opposite Directions -- What Gives?, Jack Schmidt, Eric Kuhn, Anne Castle, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

No abstract provided.

Considerations For Assigned Water After Expiration Of The 2007 Guidelines, Kathryn Sorensen, Sarah Porter, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

As Colorado River supplies and demands reach razor-thin margins, new tools to provide adaptive capacity will play a critical role in sustaining communities across the West. We must reduce our consumption of water, while finding ways to cushion the impact. One of the most innovative tools for doing this, developed over the last two decades, is “Assigned Water” - giving users the ability to store conserved water earmarked for their own future use. Originally developed as “Intentionally Created Surplus” in the 2007 Colorado River Interim Guidelines, Assigned Water has been revised and expanded through U.S. Mexico Treaty Minutes and as …

Analysis Of Colorado River Basin Storage Suggests Need For Immediate Action, Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

Consumptive water use in the Colorado River Basin continues to outpace natural flow. The dwindling reserve stored in reservoirs that has long sustained this shortfall might soon be exhausted. Immediate steps should be taken to reduce current consumptive uses in the Upper and Lower Basins.

Awaiting The Colorado River 24-Month Study, John Fleck, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

No abstract provided.

Essential Pillars For The Post-2026 Colorado River Guidelines, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

The process for determining the operating rules for the Colorado River system that will take effect in 2027 is in full swing. While various alternative operating regimes have been proposed, no preferred or consensus alternative has yet emerged. As a group of experienced Colorado River colleagues without affiliation to any Basin State, Tribe, or interested stakeholder, we submit that there are fundamental principles that should form the basis of the ultimate Record of Decision defining management of the Colorado River for the future. We propose the following essential pillars for inclusion in the Post-2026 Guidelines.

Reservoir Storage In Mid-March: Where Do We Stand?, Jack Schmidt, John Fleck, Kathryn Sorensen, Eric Kuhn, Katherine Tara

The Traveling Wilburys of the Colorado River

No abstract provided.

Environmental Fate Of Sulfur In Sulphur Creek, Valles Caldera, Nm: Implications For Metal Transport And Water Quality, Daniel Lavery

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

The 1.2 Ma Valles Caldera in north-central New Mexico hosts a young igneous volcanic hydrothermal system after the model proposed in Goff and Janik (2000). The Sulphur Springs area within Valles Caldera is an acid-sulfate area typical of this model, discharging acidic waters (pH 1.5-3) formed by oxidation of magmatic H₂S at the surface. We report on samples obtained from springs and streams collected between October 2021 and May 2023 in the Sulphur Creek and Alamo watersheds. Sulphur Creek receives input from Sulphur Springs and exhibits low pH (2-4) and high concentrations of Al (≤110 mg/L), Fe (≤60 …

Seismic Analysis Of The Upper & Lower Falls Of The Yellowstone River, Loring Schaible

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Twelve years of concurrent hydrologic and continuous seismic data along with temporary seismic data demonstrate that the Upper and Lower Falls of the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone River comprise a highly localized source of 0.5-5 Hz seismic energy that overwhelms anthropogenic contributions. In aggregate, seismic amplitude from 2008-2019 is linearly related to discharge with a correlation coefficient of 0.96. Repeated deviations from this linear relationship persist for 1-2 weeks prior to the date that Yellowstone Lake becomes clear of winter ice coverage. Seismic efficiency increases by ~50-250% during this period of ice-breakup, during which lake ice flows into the …

Combining Semi-Continuous And Discrete Water Quality Data To Characterize Solute Transport, Biogeochemical Processes, And Wildfire Disturbances In Fluvial Systems, Justin Rae Nichols

Civil Engineering ETDs

In the past decade, high-frequency water quality sondes have become more abundant in watersheds across North America and Europe and are gaining a foothold in Asia and South America. In this dissertation, three relevant topics associated with high-frequency data are investigated, i.e., the impact of winter’s precipitation on surface water quality and stream metabolism, the longitudinal propagation of wildfire disturbances through a fluvial network, and the use of machine learning with high-frequency data to estimate fluvial nutrient processing. First, we found that significant snow precipitation can cause surface water anoxia and declines in stream metabolism. Second, our data illustrate that …

Soil Moisture Dependent Runoff In A Dryland Region: An Investigation Of The Role Of Antecedent Conditions, Monitoring, And Modeling Strategies, Gerhard Schoener

Civil Engineering ETDs

Approximately 30% of the Earth’s land surface is characterized as arid or semiarid, including much of the western United States. Accurate runoff predictions are important for informed watershed management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas. Infiltration excess overland flow is the dominant mechanism for runoff generation in many dryland basins, and event-based infiltration or loss models are commonly used to estimate runoff. However, predictions are associated with considerable uncertainty due to the role antecedent soil moisture, an initial condition that must be set by the modeler. The objectives of my research were to (1) evaluate the impact of antecedent soil moisture …

Fluvial Geomorphic And Hydrologic Evolution And Climate Change Resilience In Young Volcanic Landscapes: Rhyolite Plateau And Lamar Valley, Yellowstone National Park, Benjamin Newell Burnett

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Quaternary volcanism associated with the last caldera cycle in Yellowstone National Park included emplacement of ash-flow tuffs, massive rhyolite flows ranging from 79 to 484 ka, and valley-filling basalts. This study examines (1) the evolution of spring hydrology with flow age on the Rhyolite Plateau, (2) initial development and evolution of stream networks on the rhyolite flows, and (3) the impact of the 630 ka caldera formation and volcanic flow emplacement on Lamar Valley incision rates.

Integrated stream networks formed within 79 kyr on the Rhyolite Plateau. Incision is focused on steep flow margins and knickpoints and is dependent on …

Natural Salinization Of The Jemez River, New Mexico: An Insight From Trace Element Geochemistry, Jon K. Golla

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

The Jemez River, a tributary of the Rio Grande in north-central New Mexico, receives thermal water input from the geofluids of the Valles Caldera, an active, high-temperature, liquid-dominated geothermal system. We focus on a ∼50-km portion of the northern Jemez River. This research extends previous decadal work (Crossey et al., in prep., 2013) on major chemistry in the river by characterizing the response of 16 trace elements to geochemical contributions from geothermal waters (McCauley, Spence, Soda Dam, and Jemez Springs springs and San Ysidro mineral waters), an area with copious hydrothermal degassing (Hummingbird), and two major tributaries (Rio San Antonio …

An Estimation Of Lower Tropospheric Mixing Derived From Inverse Modeling Of Boundary Layer Water Vapor Isotopologues On Graciosa Island, Azores, Jacquelyn M. Delp

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Recent studies have shown water vapor isotopologues to be sensitive tracers of mixing processes that govern low-cloud feedback in climate models. In this study, we develop an inverse model (MBL Mix inverse model) that uses one year of isotope and humidity observations from Graciosa Island, Azores to estimate mixing for four seasons. We show the dry end-member of the model, the lower free troposphere (LFT), can be represented using Rayleigh fractionation. Isotope observations from Graciosa Island are compared to other field locations to discuss controls on isotopic variability other than mixing. Output from the MBL Mix inverse model shows the …

Evaluating Future Reservoir Storage In The Rio Grande Using Normalized Climate Projections And A Water Balance Model, Nolan T. Townsend

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

We develop and implement new tools for assessing the future of surface water supplies in downstream reaches of the Rio Grande, for which Elephant Butte Reservoir is the major storage reservoir. First, a normalization procedure is developed to adjust natural Rio Grande streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches. The normalization accounts for upstream anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model, thereby yielding downstream flows closer to observed values and more appropriate for use in assessments of future flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on …

An Estimation Of Lower Tropospheric Mixing Derived From Inverse Modeling Of Boundary Layer Water Vapor Isotopologues On Graciosa Island, Azores, Jacquelyn M. Delp

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Recent studies have shown water vapor isotopologues to be sensitive tracers of mixing processes that govern low-cloud feedback in climate models. In this study, we develop an inverse model (MBL Mix inverse model) that uses one year of isotope and humidity observations from Graciosa Island, Azores to estimate mixing for four seasons. We show the dry end-member of the model, the lower free troposphere (LFT), can be represented using Rayleigh fractionation. Isotope observations from Graciosa Island are compared to other field locations to discuss controls on isotopic variability other than mixing. Output from the MBL Mix inverse model shows the …

Observed And Projected Snowmelt Runoff In The Upper Rio Grande In A Changing Climate, Nels R. Bjarke

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

As climate has warmed over the past half century, the strength of the covariance between interannual snowpack and streamflow anomalies in the Rio Grande headwaters has decreased. This change has caused an amplification of errors in seasonal streamflow forecasts using traditional statistical forecasting methods, based on the diminishing correlation between peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and subsequent snowmelt runoff. Therefore, at a time when water resources in south-western North America are becoming scarcer, water supply forecasters need to develop prediction schemes that account for the dynamic nature of the relationship between precipitation, temperature, snowpack and streamflow. We quantify temporal changes …

Fluid Transport In Porous Media For Engineering Applications, Eric M. Benner

Chemical and Biological Engineering ETDs

This doctoral dissertation presents three topics in modeling fluid transport through porous media used in engineering applications. The results provide insights into the design of fuel cell components, catalyst and drug delivery particles, and aluminum- based materials. Analytical and computational methods are utilized for the modeling of the systems of interest. Theoretical analysis of capillary-driven transport in porous media show that both geometric and evaporation effects significantly change the time dependent behavior of liquid imbibition and give a steady state flux into the medium. The evaporation–capillary number is significant in determining the time-dependent behavior of capillary flows in porous media. …

Irrigation Forbearance In The Middle Rio Grande: Using Remote Sensing To Improve Investments, Trevor Birt

Water Resources Professional Project Reports

In extremely dry years when there is a high premium on surface water, irrigation forbearance agreements help water managers maintain riparian health, fish populations, and ensure water delivery to downstream users. In order for these programs to maximize their effectiveness and limit their impact on agricultural communities, water managers should seek the highest return on investment - or the highest amount of water per acre entered into forbearance. This may be accomplished by assessing the water requirements of fields and then grouping by conveyance lateral, to target the highest among them as good forbearance participants. Unfortunately, irrigation measurement in the …

Assessing Water Policy Implications Of The Changing Agriculture In New Mexico, Trevor A. Birt

Shared Knowledge Conference

Agriculture is the dominant water sector in New Mexico, responsible for more than 80% of water withdrawals in 2015 (USGS 2018). Water policy needs to be extremely adaptive and informed to meet the needs of not only farmers, but cities, industry and riparian uses. Since 1840, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has conducted census surveys assessing all levels of agriculture. These data are physically published at the county, state, and national level on a 5-year cycle, detailing various material counts such as acreage, yields, and water usage, as well as socioeconomic estimates of farm costs, revenues, and hired workers. …

Natural Trace Element Salinization Of The Jemez River, New Mexico By Geothermal Springs And Major Tributaries, Jon K. Golla, Laura J. Crossey, Abdul-Mehdi S. Ali, Karl E. Karlstrom

Shared Knowledge Conference

The Jemez River (JR), a tributary of the Rio Grande, is in north-central New Mexico within the Jemez Mountains, which houses the active, high-temperature (≤ 300 oC), liquid-dominated Valles Caldera geothermal system (VC). This work focuses on the northern portion of the JR, spanning a reach from the East Fork JR to the town of San Ysidro. Previous decadal work during low-flow or baseflow conditions (~10-20 cfs) has identified and characterized significant major-solute contributions from two outflow expressions of the VC, Soda Dam Springs and Jemez Hot Springs, and two major tributaries, Rio San Antonio and Rio Guadalupe. There is …

Comparison Of Methodologies Of Using Colorimetry To Detect Low Concentrations Of Bromide As A Hydrologic Tracer, Emily Wolf

Water Resources Professional Project Reports

The objective of this research was to compare colorimetric methods for measuring low concentrations of bromide in natural waters. The bromide ion has long been used as a tracer to study hydrodynamic processes and properties. Its conservative nature makes it ideal as a tracer. Bromide is almost entirely immune to loss from a solution via adsorption on rocks and sediments, or reaction with other solutes present in the water. Using three methodologies to use colorimetry in the detection of bromide, I analyzed samples taken from the Gila River, Jemez Creek, and the Rio Grande after injections of sodium bromide were …