Earth Sciences Commons^™

Umphlett Qci June 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Historic Flooding in Missouri

Spring Conditions Impact Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Interpretive Geologic Cross Sections Across Lower Platte North Natural Resources District, Nebraska (Ccs-20), Dana Divine

Conservation and Survey Division: Faculty and Staff Publications

No abstract provided.

Evaluating The Impacts Of Farmers’ Behaviors On A Hypothetical Agricultural Water Market Based On Double Auction, Erhu Du, Ximing Cai, Barbara Minsker

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Agricultural water markets are considered effective instruments to mitigate the impacts of water scarcity and to increase crop production. However, previous studies have limited understanding of how farmers’ behaviors affect the performance of water markets. This study develops an agent-based model to explicitly incorporate farmers’ behaviors, namely irrigation behavior (represented by farmers’ sensitivity to soil water deficit k) and bidding behavior (represented by farmers’ rent seeking l and learning rate b), in a hypothetical water market based on a double auction. The model is applied to the Guadalupe River Basin in Texas to simulate a hypothetical agricultural water market under …

Mechanistic Modeling Of Insecticide Risks To Breeding Birds In North American Agroecosystems, Matthew Etterson, Kristina Garber, Edward Odenkirchen

United States Environmental Protection Agency: Publications

Insecticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. There is accumulating evidence that insecticides adversely affect non-target wildlife species, including birds, causing mortality, reproductive impairment, and indirect effects through loss of prey base, and the type and magnitude of such effects differs by chemical class, or mode of action. In evaluating data for an insecticide registration application and for registration review, scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of the insecticide and the risk the insecticide poses to the environment and non-target wildlife. Current USEPA risk assessments for pesticides …

Assessing Landslide Susceptibility With Gis Using Qualitative And Quantitative Methods In Knox County, Nebraska, Christian J. Cruz

Department of Geography: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This thesis assesses landslide susceptibility using data from LiDAR DEMs, land cover, and soil surveys. Data were assessed quantitatively through Bayesian logistic regression within a geographic information system (GIS) and statistical software to produce a landslide susceptibility map. The study area exhibits moderate relief where bluffs along the Missouri River valley gradually recede into rolling loess-mantled hills further to the south and southeast in Knox County. The six factors used to determine susceptibility to landslides are: land cover, parent material, slope aspect, slope curvature slope degree, and soil series. My findings show an increase in slope is the most significant …

Integration Of Hydrogeophysical Datasets For Improved Water Resource Management In Irrigated Systems, Catherine E. Finkenbiner

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Water scarcity is predicted to be the major limitation to increasing agronomic outputs to meet future food and fiber demands. With the agricultural sector accounting for 80 – 90% of all consumptive water use and an average water use efficiency (WUE) of less than 45%, major advances must be made in irrigation water management. Precision agriculture, specifically variable-rate irrigation (VRI) and variable-speed irrigation (VSI) systems, offers the technologies to address and manage for infield variability and incorporate that into management decisions. The major limitation to implementing this technology often lies in the management of spatial datasets and the development of …

Problematizing Socio-Scientific Issues: An Approach To Understanding Student Decision-Making Using Construal Level Theory, Ashley M. Peterson

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Socio-scientific issues (SSIs) are challenges at the intersection of science and everyday life that require use of scientific knowledge, argumentation skills, personal values, and morals to articulate science-informed decisions. While addressing SSIs, the ways in which individuals define a problem will influence the solution or decision reached. The problem definition can differ along many dimensions, including content and construal level. A construal is a mental construction of the past and future, other places and people, and unlikely events. Construal Level Theory (CLT) suggests pro-environmental intentions are associated with abstract situations. I explore the application of CLT to teaching and learning …

The Groundwater Atlas Of Richardson County, Nebraska, Dana P. Divine, Leslie M. Howard

Conservation and Survey Division: Faculty and Staff Publications

The purpose of this groundwater atlas is to synthesize a wealth of hydrogeologic data for Richardson County that has not been published in readily accessible formats previously. Many of the maps presented herein are based on data from registered well logs and test hole logs that are publicly available on-line, which become more valuable when compiled, analyzed, and discussed as a whole. The focus of the maps presented in this report is the accessibility of groundwater for pumping.

Plant Diversity Influences The Structure And Function Of A Restored Prairie And Its Responses To Added Disturbances, Rebecca Bevans

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

As global warming, human conversion of natural landscapes to agricultural uses, and widespread biodiversity losses continue to alter the ecosystems we depend on, an understanding of the relationship between ecosystem structure, composition, and function is needed to maintain valuable ecosystem states and their associated functions. Research testing the limits of an ecosystem’s ability to maintain essential structure and functioning under disturbance conditions can aid in this goal.

In this study, I measured the relationship between plant diversity, community structure and functional traits, and their responses to added disturbances. I added disturbances representing those either caused or intensified by human activity …

Sensitivity Of Mangrove Range Limits To Climate Variability, Kyle C. Cavanaugh, Michael J. Osland, Remi Bardou, Gustavo Hinojosa-Arango, Juan M. Lopez-Vivas, John D. Parker, Andre S. Rovai

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Aim: Correlative distribution models have been used to identify potential climatic controls of mangrove range limits, but there is still uncertainty about the relative importance of these factors across different regions. To provide insights into the strength of climatic control of different mangrove range limits, we tested whether temporal variability in mangrove abundance increases near range limits and whether this variability is correlated with climatic factors thought to control large scale mangrove distributions.

Location: North and South America.

Time period: 1984–2011.

Major taxa studied: Avicennia germinans, Avicennia schuaeriana, Rhizophora mangle, Laguncularia racemosa.

Methods: We characterized temporal variability in the enhanced …

Δ13c And Δ15n In The Endangered Kemp’S Ridley Sea Turtle Lepidochelys Kempii After The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, Kimberly J. Reich, Melania C. López-Castro, Donna J. Shaver, Claire Iseton, Kristen M. Hart, Michael J. Hooper, Christopher J. Schmitt

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The Deepwater Horizon explosion in April 2010 and subsequent oil spill released 3.19 × 106 barrels (5.07 × 108 l) of MC252 crude oil into important foraging areas of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle Lepidochelys kempii (Lk) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM). We measured δ13C and δ15N in scute biopsy samples from 33 Lk nesting in Texas during the period 2010 to 2012. Of these, 27 were equipped with satellite transmitters and were tracked to traditional foraging areas in the northern GoM after the spill. Differences in δ13C between the oldest and newest scute layers from 2010 …

Vegetation Response To Invasive Tamarix Control In Southwestern U.S. Rivers: A Collaborative Study Including 416 Sites, Eduardo Gonzalez, Anna A. Sher, Robert M. Anderson, Robin F. Bay, Daniel W. Bean, Gabriel J. Bissonnete, Berenger Bourgeois, David J. Cooper, Kara Dohrenwend, Kim D. Eichhorst, Hishma El Waer, Deborah K. Kennard, Rebecca Harms-Weissinger, Annie L. Henry, Lori J. Makarick, Steven M. Ostoja, Lindsay V. Reynolds, W. Wright Robinson, Patrick B. Shafroth

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Most studies assessing vegetation response following control of invasive Tamarix trees along southwestern U.S. rivers have been small in scale (e.g., river reach), or at a regional scale but with poor spatial-temporal replication, and most have not included testing the effects of a now widely used biological control. We monitored plant composition following Tamarix control along hydrologic, soil, and climatic gradients in 244 treated and 172 reference sites across six U.S. states. This represents the largest comprehensive assessment to date on the vegetation response to the four most common Tamarix control treatments. Biocontrol by a defoliating beetle (treatment 1) reduced …

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Fisheries & wildlife climate workshop...................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

NCA workshop and outreach activities......................................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Controls On Fracture Network Characteristics Of The Middle Member Of The Bakken Formation, Elm Coulee Field, Williston Basin, Usa, Shashank Khatri

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Bakken formation in the Elm Coulee Field of the Williston Basin consists of three members: 1) upper shale member, 2) middle silty dolostone member, and 3) lower shale member. The upper and lower members act as excellent source rocks and the main reservoir is the middle member with an average porosity of 3 to 9% and average permeability of 0.04md. The Bakken oil play in this area is a stratigraphic trap with a pinch-out to the southwest and a diagenetic facies change in the northeast. The main production is interpreted to come from matrix permeability in the field area. …

Evaluating The Impacts Of Grassland Conversions To Experimental Forest On Groundwater Recharge In The Nebraska Sand Hills, Zablon A. Adane

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Nebraska Sand Hills grasslands provide the greatest groundwater recharge rates in the High Plains Aquifer. However, the grasslands and their ecological services have become vulnerable to land use change and degradation. This study used a series of field data to investigate the effects of grassland conversions to forest on recharge rates in a century-old experimental forest in the Sand Hills. The results show that the impact of grassland conversion on recharge was dependent on the species and plantation density. Estimated recharge rates beneath the dense plantations represent reductions of 86–94% relative to the native grassland. Results of ¹H …

Influence Of Internal Variability On Population Exposure To Hydroclimatic Changes, Justin S. Mankin, Daniel Viviroli, Mesfin Mekonnen, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Radley M. Horton, Jason E. Smerdon, Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation …

Factors That Influence Vital Rates Of Seaside And Saltmarsh Sparrows In Coastal New Jersey, Usa, Samuel G. Roberts, Rebecca A. Longenecker, Matthew A. Etterson, Katharine J. Ruskin, Chris S. Elphick, Brian J. Olsen, W. Gregory Shriver

United States Environmental Protection Agency: Publications

As saltmarsh habitat continues to disappear, understanding the factors that influence the population dynamics of saltmarsh breeding birds is an important step in the conservation of these declining species. Using 5 yrs (2011–2015) of demographic data, we evaluated and compared apparent adult survival and nest survival of Seaside (Ammodramus maritimus) and Saltmarsh (A. caudacutus) sparrows at the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge in New Jersey, USA. We determined the effect of site management history (unditched vs. ditched marshes) on adult and nest survival to aid in prioritizing future management or restoration actions. Apparent adult …

The Future Of Evapotranspiration: Global Requirements For Ecosystem Functioning, Carbon And Climate Feedbacks, Agricultural Management, And Water Resources, Joshua B. Fisher, Forrest S. Melton, Elizabeth M. Middleton, Christopher Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Richard G. Allen, Matthew Mccabe, Simon Hook, Dennis Baldocchi, Philip A. Townsend, Ayse Kilic, Kevin Tu, Diego Miralles, Johan Perret, Jean-Pierre Lagouarde, Duane Waliser, Adam J. Purdy, Andrew French, David Schimel, James S. Famiglietti, Graeme Stephens, Eric F. Wood

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking …

Results Of Test-Hole Drilling For Observation Well Planning In The Upper Loup Natural Resources District, Fall 2016, Douglas Hallum, Sue Olafsen Lackey

Conservation and Survey Division: Faculty and Staff Publications

The High Plains Aquifer underlies much of Nebraska (Figure 1). It is the primary source of groundwater within the Upper Loup Natural Resources District (ULNRD) of central Nebraska (Figure 2). Water derived from the aquifer is an important natural resource for the area and supplies water for recreation, wildlife and agriculture, as well as domestic, municipal, and industrial uses. A general lack of water level observations in the region (Figure 3), recently developed groundwater irrigated acres along the upper Calamus River (Figure 4), falling spring water levels measured in existing irrigation wells (Figure 5), and a stable to falling stream …

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

Basic Meteorological Data Derived 30-Year Normas (1981-2010) Of Actual Evapotranspiration Rates In Nebraska, Usa, Jozsef Szilagyi

Conservation and Survey Division: Faculty and Staff Publications

No abstract provided.

Diet Composition Of Age-0 Fishes In Created Habitats Of The Lower Missouri River, Trevor A. Starks, James M. Long

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Channelization of the Missouri River has greatly reduced the availability of shallow water habitats used by many larval and juvenile fishes and contributed to imperilment of floodplain-dependent biota. Creation of small side channels, or chutes, is being used to restore shallow water habitat and reverse negative environmental effects associated with channelization. In the summer of 2012, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers collected early life stages of fishes from constructed chutes and nearby unrestored shallow habitats at six sites on the Missouri River between Rulo, Nebraska and St. Louis, Missouri. We compared the diets of two abundant species of fishes …

Effects Of Initial Aquifer Conditions On Economic Benefits From Groundwater Conservation, T. Foster, N. Brozovic, A. P. Butler

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Worldwide, there is growing recognition of the need to reduce agricultural groundwater use in response to rapid rates of aquifer depletion. To date, however, few studies have evaluated how benefits of conservation vary along an aquifer’s depletion pathway. To address this question, we develop an integrated modeling framework that couples an agro-economic model of farmers’ field-level irrigation decisionmaking with a borehole-scale groundwater flow model. Unique to this framework is the explicit consideration of the dynamic reductions in well yields that occur as an aquifer is depleted, and how these changes in intraseasonal groundwater supply affect farmers’ ability to manage production …

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 17, 2017, Richard Tinker

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 17, 2017 (1/17/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 10, 2017, David Miskus

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 10, 2017 (1/10/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 3, 2017, David Miskus

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 3, 2017 (1/3/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

Aquacrop-Os: An Open Source Version Of Fao’S Crop Water Productivity Model, T. Foster, N. Brozovic, A. P. Butler, C. M. U. Neale, D. Raes, P. Steduto, E. Fereres, T. C. Hsiao

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Crop simulation models are valuable tools for quantifying crop yield response to water, and for devising strategies to improve agricultural water management. However, applicability of the majority of crop models is limited greatly by a failure to provide open-access to model source code. In this study, we present an open-source version of the FAO AquaCrop model, which simulates efficiently water-limited crop production across diverse environmental and agronomic conditions. Our model, called AquaCrop-OpenSource (AquaCrop-OS), can be run in multiple programming languages and operating systems. Support for parallel execution reduces significantly simulation times when applying the model in large geospatial frameworks, for …

In-Situ Observation And Transport Modelling Of Arsenic In Gangetic Plain, India, Pankaj Kumar Gupta, Pranjay Joshi, Jahangeer

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

The focus of this study is to investigate the arsenic movement and impacts on the residual concentrations on groundwater pollution load. The Gangetic plain area in the Ballia, Uttar Pradesh is selected as study area, which is also reported to extreme arsenic pollution in soil-water system. A modelling approach is developed to assess the arsenic flux in partially saturated zone using data of soil texture, soil hydraulic properties and stratigraphy. Soil type, slope, and land-use cover is considered for estimating the transient flux at the top boundary from daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data of the study area. Solute transport in …