Data Science Commons^™

Predicting Outcomes Of El Clásico Using Random Forests And Extreme Gradient Boosting, Emanuel Jarquin

CMC Senior Theses

In the modern era, sports betting is becoming increasingly popular. This is especially true in the realm of soccer (or ‘football’ as it is known outside the United States). As a result, the concept of attempting to predict the outcomes of soccer matches using machine learning has garnered much attention in recent years. In this thesis, I utilize well-known machine learning techniques to predict the outcomes of El Clásico matchups and compare the predictive performance of these techniques. The predictive methods employed for this thesis are random forests using the party package in R and extreme gradient boosting using the …

Integrated Gradients Is A Nonlinear Generalization Of The Industry Standard Approach To Variable Attribution For Credit Risk Models, Jonathan Boardman, Md Shafiul Alam, Xiao Huang, Ying Xie

Published and Grey Literature from PhD Candidates

In modern society, epistemic uncertainty limits trust in financial relationships, necessitating transparency and accountability mechanisms for both consumers and lenders. One upshot is that credit risk assessments must be explainable to the consumer. In the United States regulatory milieu, this entails both the identification of key factors in a decision and the provision of consistent actions that would improve standing. The traditionally accepted approach to explainable credit risk modeling involves generating scores with Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) - usually logistic regression, calculating the contribution of each predictor to the total points lost from the theoretical maximum, and generating reason codes …

Batch Normalization Preconditioning For Neural Network Training, Susanna Luisa Gertrude Lange

Theses and Dissertations--Mathematics

Batch normalization (BN) is a popular and ubiquitous method in deep learning that has been shown to decrease training time and improve generalization performance of neural networks. Despite its success, BN is not theoretically well understood. It is not suitable for use with very small mini-batch sizes or online learning. In this work, we propose a new method called Batch Normalization Preconditioning (BNP). Instead of applying normalization explicitly through a batch normalization layer as is done in BN, BNP applies normalization by conditioning the parameter gradients directly during training. This is designed to improve the Hessian matrix of the loss …

A Machine Learning Algorithm Improves Surface Freeze-Thaw Classification, Fredrick Bunt

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

The frozen or thawed state of the land surface is an important factor affecting a wide range of natural processes such as surface water movement, the carbon cycle, and ecosystem development. It is also important for human endeavors such as permafrost engineering and agricultural planning. This makes having an accurate record important. The Freeze-Thaw (FT) Earth System Data Record (FT-ESDR) is a global, daily product that strives to be a reliable record of the FT ground state. In its current form, the FT-ESDR uses annual regression analysis of reanalysis surface air temperatures (SAT) and brightness temperatures (Tb) at each grid …

Interpretable Machine Learning For Self-Service High-Risk Decision Making, Charles Recaido

All Master's Theses

This research contributes to interpretable machine learning via visual knowledge discovery in General Line Coordinates (GLC). The concepts of hyperblocks as interpretable dataset units and GLC are combined to create a visual self-service machine learning model. Two variants of GLC known as Dynamic Scaffold Coordinates (DSC) are proposed. DSC1 and DSC2 can map in a lossless manner multiple dataset attributes to a single two-dimensional (X, Y) Cartesian plane using a dynamic scaffolding graph construction algorithm.

Hyperblock analysis is used to determine visually appealing dataset attribute orders and to reduce line occlusion. It is shown that hyperblocks can generalize decision tree …

Fairly Predicting Graft Failure In Liver Transplant For Organ Assigning, Sirui Ding, Ruixiang Tang, Daochen Zha, Na Zou, Kai Zhang, Xiaoqian Jiang, Xia Hu

Faculty, Staff and Student Publications

Liver transplant is an essential therapy performed for severe liver diseases. The fact of scarce liver resources makes the organ assigning crucial. Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is a widely adopted criterion when making organ distribution decisions. However, it ignores post-transplant outcomes and organ/donor features. These limitations motivate the emergence of machine learning (ML) models. Unfortunately, ML models could be unfair and trigger bias against certain groups of people. To tackle this problem, this work proposes a fair machine learning framework targeting graft failure prediction in liver transplant. Specifically, knowledge distillation is employed to handle dense and sparse …

Hydrocarbon Pay Zone Prediction Using Ai Neural Network Modeling., Darren D. Guedon

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This paper captures the ability of AI neural network technology to analyze petrophysical datasets for pattern recognition and accurate prediction of the pay zone of a vertical well from the Santa Fe field in Kansas.

During this project, data from 10 completed wells in the Santa Fe field were gathered, resulting in a dataset with 25,580 records, ten predictors (logs data), and a single binary output (Yes or No) to identify the availability of Hydrocarbon over a half feet depth segment in the well. Several models composed of different predictors combinations were also tested to determine how impactful some logs …

Physics-Informed Machine Learning To Predict Extreme Weather Events, Rthvik Raviprakash, Jonathan Buchanan, Mahdi Bu Ali

Discovery Undergraduate Interdisciplinary Research Internship

Extreme weather events refer to unexpected, severe, or unseasonal weather events, which are dynamically related to specific large-scale atmospheric patterns. These extreme weather events have a significant impact on human society and also natural ecosystems. For example, natural disasters due to extreme weather events caused more than $90 billion global direct losses in 2015. These extreme weather events are challenging to predict due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and are highly correlated with the occurrence of atmospheric blocking. A key aspect for preparedness and response to extreme climate events is accurate medium-range forecasting of atmospheric blocking events.

Unlike …

Identifying Vacant Lots To Reduce Violent Crime In Dallas, Texas, Laura Lazarescou, Andrew Mejia, Tina Pai, Sabrina Purvis, Robert Slater, Owen Wilson-Chavez

SMU Data Science Review

Vacant lots have been associated with community violence for many years. Researchers have confirmed a positive correlation between vacant lots and vacant buildings with increased violence in urban and rural geographies. However, identifying vacant lots has been a challenge, and modeling methods were largely manual and time-intensive. This prevented cities and non-profit organizations from acting on the information since it was expensive and high-risk to develop remediation programs without clearly understanding where or how many vacant lots existed.

The primary objective of this study was to provide a predictive model that accelerates and improves the accuracy of prior land classification …

Analyzing And Detecting Android Malware And Deepfake, Md Shohel Rana

Dissertations

Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) over the past several decades have produced a variety of technologies and tools that, among numerous cybersecurity issues, have enticed cybercriminals and hackers to design malware for the Android operating systems and/or manipulate multimedia. For example, high-quality and realistic fake videos, images, or audios have been created to spread misinformation and propaganda, foment political discord and hate, or even harass and blackmail people; these manipulated, high-quality and realistic videos became known recently as Deepfake. There has been much work done in recent years on malware analysis and …

An Information-Theoretic Analysis Of Adherence To Physical Exercise Routines, Lily Foster

Computational and Data Sciences (MS) Theses

One of the most common recommendations in healthcare is to simply form healthy habits, but little research has been done to understand the formation and continuation of a healthy habit that isn’t heavily influenced by an individual’s interpretation. Arizona State University’s WalkIT study aimed to analyze how goal setting and financial reinforcement can influence moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in adults, while using data from accelerometers to alleviate individual bias. In this trial, 512 insufficiently active adults were recruited to wear an accelerometer for 1 year and were then randomly assigned to one of the four study groups. Each group had …

Visualizing Features From Deep Neural Networks Trained On Alzheimer’S Disease And Few-Shot Learning Models For Alzheimer’S Disease, John Reeder

All Theses

Alzheimer’s disease is an incurable neural disease, usually affecting the elderly. The afflicted suffer from cognitive impairments that get dramatically worse at each stage. Previous research on Alzheimer’s disease analysis in terms of classification leveraged statistical models such as support vector machines. However, statistical models such as support vector machines train the from numerical data instead of medical images. Today, convolutional neural networks (CNN) are widely considered as the one which can achieve the state-of-the- art image classification performance. However, due to their black box nature, there can be reluctance amongst medical professionals for their use. On the other hand, …

Analysis Of Deep Learning Methods For Wired Ethernet Physical Layer Security Of Operational Technology, Lucas Torlay

All Theses

The cybersecurity of power systems is jeopardized by the threat of spoofing and man-in-the-middle style attacks due to a lack of physical layer device authentication techniques for operational technology (OT) communication networks. OT networks cannot support the active probing cybersecurity methods that are popular in information technology (IT) networks. Furthermore, both active and passive scanning techniques are susceptible to medium access control (MAC) address spoofing when operating at Layer 2 of the Open Systems Interconnection (OSI) model. This thesis aims to analyze the role of deep learning in passively authenticating Ethernet devices by their communication signals. This method operates at …

Analytical Models For Traffic Congestion And Accident Analysis, Hongrui Liu, Rahul Ramachandra Shetty

Mineta Transportation Institute

In the US, over 38,000 people die in road crashes each year, and 2.35 million are injured or disabled, according to the statistics report from the Association for Safe International Road Travel (ASIRT) in 2020. In addition, traffic congestion keeping Americans stuck on the road wastes millions of hours and billions of dollars each year. Using statistical techniques and machine learning algorithms, this research developed accurate predictive models for traffic congestion and road accidents to increase understanding of the complex causes of these challenging issues. The research used US Accidents data consisting of 49 variables describing 4.2 million accident records …

Take The Lead: Toward A Virtual Video Dance Partner, Ty Farris

Master's Theses

My work focuses on taking a single person as input and predicting the intentional movement of one dance partner based on the other dance partner's movement. Human pose estimation has been applied to dance and computer vision, but many existing applications focus on a single individual or multiple individuals performing. Currently there are very few works that focus specifically on dance couples combined with pose prediction. This thesis is applicable to the entertainment and gaming industry by training people to dance with a virtual dance partner.

Many existing interactive or virtual dance partners require a motion capture system, multiple cameras …

A Deep Learning Approach For Forecasting Global Commodities Prices, Ahmed Saied Elberawi, Mohamed Belal Prof.

Future Computing and Informatics Journal

Forecasting future values of time-series data is a critical task in many disciplines including financial planning and decision-making. Researchers and practitioners in statistics apply traditional statistical methods (such as ARMA, ARIMA, ES, and GARCH) for a long time with varying accuracies. Deep learning provides more sophisticated and non-linear approximation that supersede traditional statistical methods in most cases. Deep learning methods require minimal features engineering compared to other methods; it adopts an end-to-end learning methodology. In addition, it can handle a huge amount of data and variables. Financial time series forecasting poses a challenge due to its high volatility and non-stationarity …

Lexical Complexity Prediction With Assembly Models, Aadil Islam

Dartmouth College Undergraduate Theses

Tuning the complexity of one's writing is essential to presenting ideas in a logical, intuitive manner to audiences. This paper describes a system submitted by team BigGreen to LCP 2021 for predicting the lexical complexity of English words in a given context. We assemble a feature engineering-based model and a deep neural network model with an underlying Transformer architecture based on BERT. While BERT itself performs competitively, our feature engineering-based model helps in extreme cases, eg. separating instances of easy and neutral difficulty. Our handcrafted features comprise a breadth of lexical, semantic, syntactic, and novel phonetic measures. Visualizations of BERT …

Fine-Grained Detection Of Hate Speech Using Bertoxic, Yakoob Khan

Dartmouth College Undergraduate Theses

This thesis describes our approach towards the fine-grained detection of hate speech using deep learning. We leverage the transformer encoder architecture to propose BERToxic, a system that fine-tunes a pre-trained BERT model to locate toxic text spans in a given text and utilizes additional post-processing steps to refine the prediction boundaries. The post-processing steps involve (1) labeling character offsets between consecutive toxic tokens as toxic and (2) assigning a toxic label to words that have at least one token labeled as toxic. Through experiments, we show that these two post-processing steps improve the performance of our model by 4.16% on …

Soarnet, Deep Learning Thermal Detection For Free Flight, Jake T. Tallman

Master's Theses

Thermals are regions of rising hot air formed on the ground through the warming of the surface by the sun. Thermals are commonly used by birds and glider pilots to extend flight duration, increase cross-country distance, and conserve energy. This kind of powerless flight using natural sources of lift is called soaring. Once a thermal is encountered, the pilot flies in circles to keep within the thermal, so gaining altitude before flying off to the next thermal and towards the destination. A single thermal can net a pilot thousands of feet of elevation gain, however estimating thermal locations is not …

Learn Biologically Meaningful Representation With Transfer Learning, Di He

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Machine learning has made significant contributions to bioinformatics and computational biol­ogy. In particular, supervised learning approaches have been widely used in solving problems such as bio­marker identification, drug response prediction, and so on. However, because of the limited availability of comprehensively labeled and clean data, constructing predictive models in super­ vised settings is not always desirable or possible, especially when using data­hunger, red­hot learning paradigms such as deep learning methods. Hence, there are urgent needs to develop new approaches that could leverage more readily available unlabeled data in driving successful machine learning ap­ plications in this area.

In my dissertation, …

Machine Learning Based Restaurant Sales Forecasting, Austin B. Schmidt

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

To encourage proper employee scheduling for managing crew load, restaurants have a need for accurate sales forecasting. We predict partitions of sales days, so each day is broken up into three sales periods: 10:00 AM-1:59 PM, 2:00 PM-5:59 PM, and 6:00 PM-10:00 PM. This study focuses on the middle timeslot, where sales forecasts should extend for one week. We gather three years of sales between 2016-2019 from a local restaurant, to generate a new dataset for researching sales forecasting methods.

Outlined are methodologies used when going from raw data to a workable dataset. We test many machine learning models on …

Machine Learning For Terminal Procedure Chart Change Detection, Anthony M. Marchiafava

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Terminal Procedure Charts are a constantly updated and necessary tool for aircraft personnel to approach and take off from airport runways safely. Detecting changes within these charts is a time-consuming and laborious process. Here machine learning techniques were used to predict regions of change in charts based on detecting the charts image regions and comparing features extracted from those regions. Outlined are methodologies to detect differences between two separate charts to produce images with changed regions clearly indicated. Both more conventional computer vision and machine learning techniques were applied. For images with minor shifts, the proposed model is able to …

Analyzing Empirical Quality Metrics Of Deep Learning Models For Antimicrobial Resistance, Huy H. Nguyen, Sanjay Pillay, Allison Roderick, Hao Wang, John Santerre

SMU Data Science Review

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is a growing concern in the medical field. Over-prescription of antibiotics as well as bacterial mutations have caused some once lifesaving drugs to become ineffective against bacteria. However, the problem of AMR might be addressed using Machine Learning (ML) thanks to increased availability of genomic data and large computing resources. The Pathosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC) has genomic data of various bacterial genera with sample isolates that are either resistant or susceptible to certain antibiotics. Past research has used this database to use ML algorithms to model AMR with successful results, including accuracies over 80%. To better …

Analysis Of Individual Player Performances And Their Effect On Winning In College Soccer, Angelo Bravo, Thomas Karba, Sean Mcwhirter, Billy Nayden

SMU Data Science Review

This study describes the process of modernizing the approach of the Southern Methodist University (SMU) Men's Soccer coaching staff through the use of location and tracking data from their matches in the 2019 season. This study utilizes a variety of modeling and analysis techniques to explore and categorize the data and use it to evaluate the types of plays that are most often correlated with victories. This study's contribution to college soccer analytics includes the implementation of a model to determine individual players' performance, the production of team-level metrics, and visualizations to increase the efficiency of the coaching staff's efforts. …

A Machine Learning Method Of Determining Causal Inference Applied To Shifts In Voting Preferences Between 2012-2016, Jaclyn A. Coate, Reagan Meagher, Megan Riley, John Santerre

SMU Data Science Review

This research investigates the application of machine learning techniques to assist in the execution of a synthetic control model. This model was performed to analyze counties within the United States that showed a voter shift from a majority of Democratic voter share to Republican between the 2012 and 2016 election cycles. The following study applies two steps of machine learning analysis. The first, which is the treatment discovery process, leverages a Random Forest to evaluate feature importance. The second step was the execution of the synthetic control model with two predictor variable lists. The first was the parametric method: …

Automated Analysis Of Rfps Using Natural Language Processing (Nlp) For The Technology Domain, Sterling Beason, William Hinton, Yousri A. Salamah, Jordan Salsman

SMU Data Science Review

Much progress has been made in text analysis, specifically within the statistical domain of Term Frequency (TF) and Inverse Document Frequency (IDF). However, there is much room for improvement especially within the area of discovering Emerging Trends. Emerging Trend Detection Systems (ETDS) depend on ingesting a collection of textual data and TF/IDF to identify new or up-trending topics within the Corpus. However, the tremendous rate of change and the amount of digital information presents a challenge that makes it almost impossible for a human expert to spot emerging trends without relying on an automated ETD system. Since the U.S. Government …

Optimal Analytical Methods For High Accuracy Cardiac Disease Classification And Treatment Based On Ecg Data, Jianwei Zheng

Computational and Data Sciences (PhD) Dissertations

This work constitutes six projects. In the first project, a newly inaugurated research database for 12-lead electrocardiogram signals was created under the auspices of Chapman University and Shaoxing People's Hospital (Shaoxing Hospital Zhejiang University School of Medicine). This database aims to enable the scientific community in conducting new studies on arrhythmia and other cardiovascular conditions. In the second project, we created a new 12-lead ECG database under the auspices of Chapman University and Ningbo First Hospital of Zhejiang University that aims to provide high quality data enabling detection of the distinctions between idiopathic ventricular arrhythmia from right ventricular outflow tract …

Application Of Machine Learning Techniques To Forecast Harmful Algal Blooms In Gulf Of Mexico, Bala Tripura Sundari Yerrapothu

Master's Theses

The Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) forecast is crucial for the mitigation of health hazards and to inform actions for the protection of ecosystems and fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). For the sake of simplicity of our application we assume ocean color satellite imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as a proxy for HABs.

In this study we use a deep neural network trained on the 2-Dimensional time series proxy data to provide a forecast of the HABs’ manifestations in the GoM.Our approach analyzes between both spatial and temporal features simultaneously. In addition, the network also helps …

Machine Learning Approaches To Dribble Hand-Off Action Classification With Sportvu Nba Player Coordinate Data, Dembe Stephanos

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Recently, strategies of National Basketball Association teams have evolved with the skillsets of players and the emergence of advanced analytics. One of the most effective actions in dynamic offensive strategies in basketball is the dribble hand-off (DHO). This thesis proposes an architecture for a classification pipeline for detecting DHOs in an accurate and automated manner. This pipeline consists of a combination of player tracking data and event labels, a rule set to identify candidate actions, manually reviewing game recordings to label the candidates, and embedding player trajectories into hexbin cell paths before passing the completed training set to the classification …

Using Deep Learning To Automate The Diagnosis Of Skin Melanoma, Akhil Reddy Alasandagutti

Honors Theses

Machine learning and image processing techniques have been widely implemented in the field of medicine to help accurately diagnose a multitude of medical conditions. The automated diagnosis of skin melanoma is one such instance. However, a majority of the successful machine learning models that have been implemented in the past have used deep learning approaches where only raw image data has been utilized to train machine learning models, such as neural networks. While they have been quite effective at predicting the condition of these lesions, they lack key information about the images, such as clinical data, and features that medical …