Data Science Commons^™

Impacts Of Climate Disruption On Mobility Aircraft Performance In The Pacaf Region, Hannah M. Dauterman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the projected impacts of climate disruption on the performance and fuel management of the C-17 Globemaster III, a critical mobility aircraft in the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) region. As rising global temperatures reduce air density, the performance of aircraft is compromised, resulting in increased fuel consumption, as well as the potential for extended runway requirements and diminished cargo capacity. Using climate projection data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this research analyzes future air temperature trends and their implications for C-17 fuel consumption. Results suggest that by 2049, the U.S. Air Force may incur an …

Forecasting Army Recruiting Mission Distribution, Maxwell A. Deihl

Theses and Dissertations

The Army’s recruiting landscape has changed markedly in recent years, raising questions about whether forecasting methods of Army contracts remain robust. This thesis recreates the presented models in Joshua McDonald’s 2015 thesis. It replicates and evaluates the models with updated data (2018–2023) to assess their current validity and compare them to novel alternative approaches, such as simpler regression models or neural networks. While the 2015 model remains a valuable baseline, results suggest that either refining its variables or adopting alternative methods can improve predictive accuracy and interpretability. Ultimately, the United States Army Recruiting Command has many options regarding how it …

Analyzing U.S. Army Recruiter Productivity Through Cohort Differentiation And Behavioral Tendency Composition, Mary M. Bates

Theses and Dissertations

This research analyzes differences among aggregate achievements of U.S. Army recruiting cohorts, determines which behavioral tendencies are indicative of performance level, and investigates aggregate behavioral composition with cohort achievement. Analyses require implementation of OLS regression, ANOVA, Tukey’s Test, Mann-Whitney U test, Holm-Bonferroni adjustment, XGBoost decision tree, logistic regression, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results show insignificant achievement differences among cohorts and weak yet prevalent abilities of select measures of behavioral tendencies to indicate recruiter performance.

Class Imbalance: A Landscape Of Classification Models, Joshua L. Edmonds

Theses and Dissertations

Class imbalance poses significant challenges in machine learning classification. This study evaluates the performance of seven models (ANN, k-Means, kNN, LDA, LR, SVM, XGBoost) across multiple imbalance levels (10\%, 5\%, 1 \%, 0.5\%) and investigates the effectiveness of sampling techniques (Undersampling, SMOTE, SMOTE-ENN). ANOVA results confirm that model choice is the most critical factor, with XGBoost and SVM demonstrating superior robustness. SMOTE improves recall but reduces precision, while undersampling generally degrades overall performance. While significant, imbalance levels do not play a critical role in model effectiveness.

Tracking News Narratives: Topic Modeling, Sentiment, And Media Coverage Patterns, Alexandria G. Lai

Theses and Dissertations

This study introduces a novel content-driven influence measurement framework, built around a custom influence formula that integrates Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) topic modeling, sentiment analysis, and influence metrics to analyze media narratives over time. Applied to news coverage of the 2020 U.S. presidential election and the COVID-19 pandemic, the framework identifies key topics, sentiment patterns, and influential sources. Results demonstrate its ability to distinguish between transient political controversies and sustained public health discourse while capturing shifts in media influence. While effective, refinements in topic separation, sentiment analysis, and temporal weighting could enhance adaptability. This study highlights the novel influence formula …

A Reinforcement Learning Approach For Maneuvering And Firing Decisions In Sead Operations, Nathaniel Garcia

Theses and Dissertations

The integration of automated processes in defense continues to expand, enhancing the lethality of military forces. Artificial intelligence accelerates decision-making cycles, removes the constraints of human-operated hardware, and improves coordination by enabling seamless integration across multiple systems. Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) missions are critical to the United States (U.S.) military, as they neutralize hostile air defense systems, ensuring air superiority and enabling safe and effective operations for aircraft in contested environments. Therefore, it is necessary to pair emerging autonomous capabilities with an important mission set in defense. This research investigates the Autonomous Unmanned Air-to-Ground Strike (AUAGS) problem, modeling …

Symbology Detection And Numerical Recognition For T-38 Heads-Up Display Recordings, Ben T. Hepner

Theses and Dissertations

The extraction of symbology and numerical data from the T-38 Heads-Up Display (HUD) enhances post-flight analysis and supports real-time decision-making. This research develops a deep learning pipeline using YOLO-based object detection and Optical Character Recognition (OCR) to analyze HUD video data. Model evaluations showed mAP0.5:0.95 ranging from 0.422 (YOLOv11m, hard test set) to 0.696 (YOLOv8m, medium test set), demonstrating robust symbology detection. Numeric detection performed well (mAP_0.5:0.95 = 0.764), but OCR struggled with glare and resolution limitations, achieving a recognition accuracy of 17.35%. These results validate deep learning for HUD data extraction but highlight the need for improved robustness …

Practical Estimation Of Action-Generation Mechanisms In Repeated Games, Vladimer Kellachow Iii

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this research is to gain insight into how players of a game learn their strategy during the course of repeated play. The study employs the Experience Weighted Attraction (EWA) model, developed by Dr. Colin F. Camerer and Dr. Teck-Hua Ho, as the foundational behavioral framework. Using historic observed strategy decisions, the parameter values that define an opponent’s learning process are updated using various inference methods.

Machine Learning With Flight Data Recorder Data For Flight Fuel Consumption Predictions, Adam C. Levandowski

Theses and Dissertations

This study applies advanced Machine Learning (ML) to Flight Data Recorder (FDR) data for fuel consumption predictions. It explores feature engineering, model selection, and Hyper-Parameter Optimization (HPO) across all flight phases. Baseline models like Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, Multi- Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), and decision trees are compared to Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) layers, and XGBoost. Results analyze segmentation strategies, tailored features, and model performance. A counterfactual analysis compares ML models to operational fuel predictions, demonstrating their deployment potential. Findings establish a foundation for future ML-driven advancements in aviation fuel optimization.

Data Lakehouse And Machine Learning Pipeline For Aircraft Fuel Efficiency Experimentation, Skyler G. Kepley

Theses and Dissertations

Fuel efficiency is crucial for the U.S. Air Force, impacting mission success, aircraft performance, and cost savings. This study presents an information system that integrates flight and maintenance data using a data lakehouse. It automates ingestion, enrichment, and predictive modeling, leveraging AutoML for optimization and SHAP for transparency. A case study on C-130J aircraft shows that optimizing D Check cycles can save 11.52 pounds of fuel per flight hour. These findings highlight the effectiveness of data-driven decision-making in aviation, offering a scalable, automated solution for improving fuel efficiency and reducing costs.

Proximal Policy Optimization Applied To The Beyond Visual Range Air Combat Maneuvering Problem, Daniel B. Joseph

Theses and Dissertations

Artificial intelligence (AI) grows ever-more important in warfighting. Emerging technologies allow for the use of AI to control aircraft and weapons systems. This research investigates the application of reinforcement learning (RL) through the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm to a two-versus-two (2v2) beyond-visual-range (BVR) air combat maneuvering problem (ACMP). Implemented in the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM), the methodology frames the engagement as a Markov decision process, wherein an autonomous RL agent learns continuous control decisions—throttle, pitch, roll, and yaw—under a cooperative communication scheme. A multi-phase curriculum-learning approach facilitates the progressive acquisition of flight stability, weapon deployment, …

Hyperparameter Tuning For Robust Autonomous Vehicle Vision, Nico D. De Ros

Theses and Dissertations

Classification “flickering,” where the classification of an object changes inconsistently between consecutive video frames, remains a persistent issue in modern object classification algorithms. This problem undermines the reliability of autonomous vision systems and poses significant risks in high-stakes applications such as autonomous vehicles. This thesis explores the use of response surface methodology, a statistical design of experiments technique, to optimize hyperparameters across three object classification pipelines. The first pipeline combines YOLOv8 with SORT to establish a benchmark. The second integrates a Bayesian back-end, while the third employs an exponential smoothing back-end. Hyperparameter tuning was conducted using a two-step process: an …

Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Solar Particle Events And Radiation Of Aircrew, Haley Traub

Theses and Dissertations

Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are high-energy phenomena from the Sun that pose risks to technology, human health, and Air Force operations. Accurate prediction of SPEs exceeding 100 MeV is crucial for mitigating these risks. This thesis explores using Bayesian statistical models to predict such events, integrating prior knowledge from solar physics with the ability to update predictions based on new data. The research uses a dataset spanning three solar cycles (21–23) and incorporates attributes like flare fluence, peak flux, latitude, longitude, and class. Four Bayesian models (PyMC, Bnlearn, and two Dredge models) were compared to machine learning models. The Bayesian …

Geo-Spatial Mapping Of Sentiment Analysis With Transformer-Based Models, Dugan J. Turnbow

Theses and Dissertations

The public sentiment of events of interest, and their impacts, is vital for decision makers to allocate resources. This research develops a robust algorithm for aggregating sentiment analysis from social media and published articles, while contextualizing results through spatial and temporal mapping. The methodology employs two transformer-based language models for sentiment analysis and named entity recognition (NER). Sentiment scores are generated and augmented using explicit location data, such as latitude and longitude, and implicit location data derived through NER or location features. Results are mapped using a geo-tagged location dictionary, enabling visualization of sentiment trends at state and county levels …

Improving Zero Shot Learning By Linking Multi-Label Cnns With Llms, Michael A. Wegner

Theses and Dissertations

Classifying previously unseen objects poses a significant challenge for traditional computer vision algorithms, which rely on extensive labeled training data. Zero-shot reasoning offers a way to overcome this limitation. This research explores a novel method for image recognition using the Animals with Attributes 2 (AWA2) dataset as a proof of concept. A multi-label ResNet50 model predicts core attributes like color, ear shape, or number of limbs. Those attributes then feed into ChatGPT which leverages its extensive knowledge base to classify the animal based on the provided attributes. This novel approach skips the need to train on every possible class. Instead, …

Using Machine Learning To Predict State Compliance With International Legal Obligations For Registration Of Space Objects: Comparative Performance Of Logistic Regression And Dense Neural Network Models, Jonathan K. Sawmiller

Student Publications

Approximately 12% of satellites and other objects launched into outer space have not been registered with the United Nations (UN) as required by international law. To predict whether States will register a launched space object and understand what factors influence a registration decision, data from a UN online index of space objects was used to train and select the best machine learning model. After preparation, the dataset had 1938 datapoints with 11 features, with categorical features simplified and converted to binary.

Multiple variations of classical logistic regression models were compared to multiple variations of dense neural network models. The best …

An Integrated Space Test Lexicon: A Taxonomy For The Integrated Test And Evaluation Of Space Systems, Stephen K. Tullino, Andrew S. Keys, Robert A. Bettinger, Amy M. Cox, David R. Jacques

Faculty Publications

The proposed Integrated Space Test Lexicon is intended to amalgamate the numerous definitions of integrated (IT or IT&E), development test (DT or DT&E), and operational test (OT or OT&E) into unified, service-wide definitions, aligned with the Space Test Enterprise Vision. Refining such definitions will help distill the core characteristics of these fundamental test types to first identify space system activities composing what is traditionally known as DT and OT, then to provide a means of how these activities fit into the IT paradigm and support space system development. In forging a common understanding of how DT and OT support space …

Impact Of Operational Ladar Occlusions On Point Cloud Instance Segmentation, Andrew D. Gibson

Theses and Dissertations

Data exploitation techniques are the enabler for technological advancements in military ISR applications of ladar ISR. By identifying instances of military objects in observed scenes, point cloud deep learning models can unlock new standards of real-time information delivery to warfighters. Although current deep learning training datasets do not include real-world collection occlusions consistent with military applications, this research characterizes SPT model performance by adding occlusions to the DALESObjects dataset via artificial flyby simulations.We find that a baseline model trained on unoccluded data suffers performance degradation on both semantic and instance segmentation tasks when evaluated on occluded data, but that the …

Federated Analysis Of Wearables Data For United States Air Force Mental And Physical Readiness, Sung Yong O

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the use of machine learning and deep learning models within a federated learning framework to predict physical and mental readiness in military personnel, using wearable technology data. The collaboration with the 711th Human Performance Wing’s STRONG Lab highlights the importance of readiness as emphasized by the National Defense and Security Strategies. The study evaluates various predictive models, incorporating federated learning to ensure data privacy and security in healthcare systems. By analyzing a comprehensive dataset, the research aims to contribute to military readiness enhancement through technological advancements, supporting health and wellness initiatives to bolster the effectiveness of military …

A Staged Framework For Llm-Powered Information Extraction In Government Contracts, Jung H. Yae

Theses and Dissertations

The manual extraction of meaningful insights and conversion of content into structured forms to enhance document processing require substantial resources and are susceptible to errors. Despite numerous applications of various Natural Language Processing (NLP) models to streamline the manual process, challenges persist due to domain-specific data constraints and the deficiency of annotated data. This study attempts to address these challenges by leveraging a Large Language Model (LLM) to analyze government contracts. Through rigorous evaluation, we demonstrate the LLM’s effectiveness in information extraction and mitigating hallucinations, achieving a 87.86% accuracy in metadata extraction.

On Intrinsic Dimensionality Of Data Sets And Neural Networks, Ori Chachmo

Theses and Dissertations

The concept of Intrinsic Dimensionality (ID) is of special interest in the field of Neural Networks (NNs) since it promotes both (a) a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms, and (b) embraces parsimonious modeling (that is, building the right-sized model for the task) with associated benefits to processing speed and storage requirements. This thesis explores the concept of ID via two separate, but related, questions. First, we study the potential of NN ID prediction by exploiting easily obtained quantities measured on the data. We then explore NN ID as an independent concept by comparing the results of different methods for …

Automated Image Registration For Titanium Aircraft Components Via Resolution-Robust Parallel Neural Networks, Paige T. Luebbering

Theses and Dissertations

Titanium alloys are vital to the structural integrity of military and commercial aircraft, comprising numerous critical components. These components are composed of microtexture regions (MTRs) that, at a specific size and orientation, can lead to aircraft failure. Existing MTR testing methods, such as Electron Backscatter Diffraction, often fall short in effectively detecting these MTRs without causing damage to the component. Addressing this gap, this thesis develops a Parallel Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model tailored for multi-resolution image registration of Polarized Light Microscopy (PLM) images to enhance MTR identification in a non-invasive manner. The findings reveal a significant enhancement in the …

Hyperspectral Point Cloud Projection For The Semantic Segmentation Of Multimodal Hyperspectral And Lidar Data With Point Convolution-Based Deep Fusion Neural Networks, Kevin T. Decker, Brett J. Borghetti

Faculty Publications

The fusion of dissimilar data modalities in neural networks presents a significant challenge, particularly in the case of multimodal hyperspectral and lidar data. Hyperspectral data, typically represented as images with potentially hundreds of bands, provide a wealth of spectral information, while lidar data, commonly represented as point clouds with millions of unordered points in 3D space, offer structural information. The complementary nature of these data types presents a unique challenge due to their fundamentally different representations requiring distinct processing methods. In this work, we introduce an alternative hyperspectral data representation in the form of a hyperspectral point cloud (HSPC), which …

Uncertainty Quantification In Federated Learning For Persistent Post-Traumatic Headache, Byungmoo Brian Kim

Theses and Dissertations

A post-traumatic headache (PTH), resulting from a mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), potentially develops into persistent post-traumatic headache (PPTH). Although no known cure for PPTH exists, research has shown that receiving treatment at earlier stages of PTH lowers the risk of patients developing PPTH. Previous studies have shown machine learning (ML) models capable of predicting a patient’s PTH progression, but none have considered the issue of protecting patient privacy. Due to patient privacy, ML models only have access to data within the institution. Federated learning (FL) harnesses data from separate institutions without sacrificing patient privacy as institutions can run ML …

Multicollinearity Applied Stepwise Stochastic Imputation: A Large Dataset Imputation Through Correlation‑Based Regression, Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

Faculty Publications

This paper presents a stochastic imputation approach for large datasets using a correlation selection methodology when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A variable range-based guard rail modification is proposed that benefits the convergence rate of data elements while simultaneously providing increased confidence in the plausibility of the imputations. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The Multicollinearity Applied Stepwise Stochastic imputation methodology (MASS-impute) capitalizes on correlation between variables within the dataset and uses model residuals to estimate unknown values. Examination of the …

Emotion Classification Of Indonesian Tweets Using Bidirectional Lstm, Aaron K. Glenn, Phillip M. Lacasse, Bruce A. Cox

Faculty Publications

Emotion classification can be a powerful tool to derive narratives from social media data. Traditional machine learning models that perform emotion classification on Indonesian Twitter data exist but rely on closed-source features. Recurrent neural networks can meet or exceed the performance of state-of-the-art traditional machine learning techniques using exclusively open-source data and models. Specifically, these results show that recurrent neural network variants can produce more than an 8% gain in accuracy in comparison with logistic regression and SVM techniques and a 15% gain over random forest when using FastText embeddings. This research found a statistical significance in the performance of …

Machine Learning Prediction Of Dod Personal Property Shipment Costs, Tiffany Tucker, Torrey J. Wagner, Paul Auclair, Brent T. Langhals

Faculty Publications

U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) personal property moves account for 15% of all domestic and international moves - accurate prediction of their cost could draw attention to outlier shipments and improve budget planning. In this work 136,140 shipments between 13 personal property shipment hubs from April 2022 through March 2023 with a total cost of $1.6B were analyzed. Shipment cost was predicted using recursive feature elimination on linear regression and XGBoost algorithms, as well as through neural network hyperparameter sweeps. Modeling was repeated after removing 28 features related to shipment hub location and branch of service to examine their influence …

Modern Approaches And Theoretical Extensions To The Multivariate Kolmogorov Smirnov Test, Gonzalo Hernando

Theses and Dissertations

Most statistical tests are fully developed for univariate data, but when inference is required for multivariate data, univariate tests risk information loss and interpretability. This research 1) derives and extends the multivariate Komolgorov Smirnov test for 2 and into m-dimensions, 2) derives small sample critical values for the KS test that are not reliant on sample size simulations or correlation between variables, 3) extends large sample estimations and current KS implementations, and 4) provides sample size and power calculations in order to enable experimental design with respect to testing for differences in distributions. Through extensive simulation, we demonstrate that our …

Improving Country Conflict And Peace Modeling: Datasets, Imputations, And Hierarchical Clustering, Benjamin D. Leiby

Theses and Dissertations

Many disparate datasets exist that provide country attributes covering political, economic, and social aspects. Unfortunately, this data often does not include all countries nor is the data complete for those countries included, as measured by the dataset’s missingness. This research addresses these dataset shortfalls in predicting country instability by considering country attributes in all aspects as well as in greater thresholds of missingness. First, a structured summary of past research is presented framed by a developed casual taxonomy and functional ontology. Additionally, a novel imputation technique for very large datasets is presented to account for moderate missingness in the expanded …

Innovative Heuristics To Improve The Latent Dirichlet Allocation Methodology For Textual Analysis And A New Modernized Topic Modeling Approach, Jamie T. Zimmerman

Theses and Dissertations

Natural Language Processing is a complex method of data mining the vast trove of documents created and made available every day. Topic modeling seeks to identify the topics within textual corpora with limited human input into the process to speed analysis. Current topic modeling techniques used in Natural Language Processing have limitations in the pre-processing steps. This dissertation studies topic modeling techniques, those limitations in the pre-processing, and introduces new algorithms to gain improvements from existing topic modeling techniques while being competitive with computational complexity. This research introduces four contributions to the field of Natural Language Processing and topic modeling. …