Data Science Commons^™

An Introduction To Calling Bullshit: Learning To Think Outside The Black Box, Jevin D. West, Carl T. Bergstrom

Numeracy

Bergstrom, Carl T. and Jevin D. West. 2020. Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World. (New York: Random House) 336 pp. ISBN 978-0525509202.

While statistical methods receive greater attention, the art of critically evaluating information in everyday life more commonly depends on thinking outside the black box of the algorithm. In this piece we introduce readers to our book and associated online teaching materials—for readers who want to more capably call “bullshit” or to teach their students to do the same.

Ensemble Data Fitting For Bathymetric Models Informed By Nominal Data, Samantha Zambo

Dissertations

Due to the difficulty and expense of collecting bathymetric data, modeling is the primary tool to produce detailed maps of the ocean floor. Current modeling practices typically utilize only one interpolator; the industry standard is splines-in-tension.

In this dissertation we introduce a new nominal-informed ensemble interpolator designed to improve modeling accuracy in regions of sparse data. The method is guided by a priori domain knowledge provided by artificially intelligent classifiers. We recast such geomorphological classifications, such as ‘seamount’ or ‘ridge’, as nominal data which we utilize as foundational shapes in an expanded ordinary least squares regression-based algorithm. To our knowledge …

Predicting Severity Of Traumatic Brain Injury: A Residual Learning Model From Magnetic Resonance Images, Dacosta Yeboah

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

One of the most significant frontiers for computational scientists is the engineering of human healthcare delivery based on intelligent analysis of health data. In a variety of neurological disorders such as Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI), neuro-imaging information plays a crucial role in the decision-making regarding patient care and as a potential prognostic marker for outcome. TBI is a heterogeneous neurological disorder. Due to the economic burdens of the disorder, sorting out this heterogeneity could provide more insights and better understanding of TBI recovery trajectories, thus improving overall diagnosis and treatment options. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is a non-invasive technique that …

Applying Deep Learning To The Ice Cream Vendor Problem: An Extension Of The Newsvendor Problem, Gaffar Solihu

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Newsvendor problem is a classical supply chain problem used to develop strategies for inventory optimization. The goal of the newsvendor problem is to predict the optimal order quantity of a product to meet an uncertain demand in the future, given that the demand distribution itself is known. The Ice Cream Vendor Problem extends the classical newsvendor problem to an uncertain demand with unknown distribution, albeit a distribution that is known to depend on exogenous features. The goal is thus to estimate the order quantity that minimizes the total cost when demand does not follow any known statistical distribution. The …

Contributions To The Teaching And Learning Of Fluid Mechanics, Ashwin Vaidya

Department of Mathematics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This issue showcases a compilation of papers on fluid mechanics (FM) education, covering different sub topics of the subject. The success of the first volume [1] prompted us to consider another follow-up special issue on the topic, which has also been very successful in garnering an impressive variety of submissions.

As a classical branch of science, the beauty and complexity of fluid dynamics cannot be overemphasized. This is an extremely well-studied subject which has now become a significant component of several major scientific disciplines ranging from aerospace engineering, astrophysics, atmospheric science (including climate modeling), biological and biomedical science …

Be Careful! That Is Probably Bullshit! Review Of Calling Bullshit: The Art Of Skepticism In A Data-Driven World By Carl T. Bergstrom And Jevin D. West, James B. Schreiber

Numeracy

Bergstrom, C. T., & West, J. D. 2021. Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World. NY: Random House. 336 pp. ISBN 978-0525509189

The authors provide a journey through the numerical bullshit that surrounds our daily lives. Each chapter has multiple examples of specific types of bullshit that each of us experience on any given day. Most importantly, information on how to identify bullshit and refute it are provided so that reader finishes the book with a set of skills to be a more engaged and critical interpreter of information. The writing has a quick and lively …

On The Use Of Minimum Penalties In Statistical Learning, Ben Sherwood, Bradley S. Price

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

Modern multivariate machine learning and statistical methodologies estimate parameters of interest while leveraging prior knowledge of the association between outcome variables. The methods that do allow for estimation of relationships do so typically through an error covariance matrix in multivariate regression which does not scale to other types of models. In this article we proposed the MinPEN framework to simultaneously estimate regression coefficients associated with the multivariate regression model and the relationships between outcome variables using mild assumptions. The MinPen framework utilizes a novel penalty based on the minimum function to exploit detected relationships between responses. An iterative algorithm that …

An Integrated Magneto-Electrochemical Device For The Rapid Profiling Of Tumour Extracellular Vesicles From Blood Plasma, Jongmin Park, Jun Seok Park, Chen Han Huang, Ala Jo, Kaitlyn Cook, Rui Wang, Hsing Ying Lin, Jan Van Deun, Huiyan Li, Jouha Min, Lan Wang, Ghilsuk Yoon, Bob S. Carter, Leonora Balaj, Gyu Seog Choi, Cesar M. Castro, Ralph Weissleder, Hakho Lee

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

Assays for cancer diagnosis via the analysis of biomarkers on circulating extracellular vesicles (EVs) typically have lengthy sample workups, limited throughput or insufficient sensitivity, or do not use clinically validated biomarkers. Here we report the development and performance of a 96-well assay that integrates the enrichment of EVs by antibody-coated magnetic beads and the electrochemical detection, in less than one hour of total assay time, of EV-bound proteins after enzymatic amplification. By using the assay with a combination of antibodies for clinically relevant tumour biomarkers (EGFR, EpCAM, CD24 and GPA33) of colorectal cancer (CRC), we classified plasma samples from 102 …

Privacy-Preserving Cloud-Assisted Data Analytics, Wei Bao

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Nowadays industries are collecting a massive and exponentially growing amount of data that can be utilized to extract useful insights for improving various aspects of our life. Data analytics (e.g., via the use of machine learning) has been extensively applied to make important decisions in various real world applications. However, it is challenging for resource-limited clients to analyze their data in an efficient way when its scale is large. Additionally, the data resources are increasingly distributed among different owners. Nonetheless, users' data may contain private information that needs to be protected.

Cloud computing has become more and more popular in …

Convolutional Neural Networks For Deflate Data Encoding Classification Of High Entropy File Fragments, Nehal Ameen

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Data reconstruction is significantly improved in terms of speed and accuracy by reliable data encoding fragment classification. To date, work on this problem has been successful with file structures of low entropy that contain sparse data, such as large tables or logs. Classifying compressed, encrypted, and random data that exhibit high entropy is an inherently difficult problem that requires more advanced classification approaches. We explore the ability of convolutional neural networks and word embeddings to classify deflate data encoding of high entropy file fragments after establishing ground truth using controlled datasets. Our model is designed to either successfully classify file …

Machine Learning Based Restaurant Sales Forecasting, Austin B. Schmidt

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

To encourage proper employee scheduling for managing crew load, restaurants have a need for accurate sales forecasting. We predict partitions of sales days, so each day is broken up into three sales periods: 10:00 AM-1:59 PM, 2:00 PM-5:59 PM, and 6:00 PM-10:00 PM. This study focuses on the middle timeslot, where sales forecasts should extend for one week. We gather three years of sales between 2016-2019 from a local restaurant, to generate a new dataset for researching sales forecasting methods.

Outlined are methodologies used when going from raw data to a workable dataset. We test many machine learning models on …

Stock Markets Performance During A Pandemic: How Contagious Is Covid-19?, Yara Abushahba

Theses and Dissertations

Background and Motivation: The coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the subsequent policies and lockdowns have unarguably led to an unprecedented fluid circumstance worldwide. The panic and fluctuations in the stock markets were unparalleled. It is inarguable that real-time availability of news and social media platforms like Twitter played a vital role in driving the investors’ sentiment during such global shock.

Purpose:The purpose of this thesis is to study how the investor sentiment in relation to COVID-19 pandemic influenced stock markets globally and how stock markets globally are integrated and contagious. We analyze COVID-19 sentiment through the Twitter posts and investigate its …

Reporting Of Eating Disorder Deaths, Katherine Mobley, Amy Hord

Symposium of Student Scholars

Those affected by eating disorders experience disturbances in eating behaviors which are often related to underlying psychiatric disorders such as anxiety, depression, or obsessive-compulsive disorder (Parekh, 2017, Drieberg et al., 1998 p.53). The duplicitous nature of the disorder makes it difficult to diagnose, and the tole it takes on an individual’s physical health makes its mortality rate the second highest among psychiatric disorders (Guinhut et al., 2021 p.130). Even if the correct education and resources are accessible to certain individuals, negative stigmatization about the disorder can make sufferers unlikely to seek help (Becker et al., 2010). Findings from analysis of …

Characterizing The Northern Hemisphere Circumpolar Vortex Through Space And Time, Nazla Bushra

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This hemispheric-scale, steering atmospheric circulation represented by the circumpolar vortices (CPVs) are the middle- and upper-tropospheric wind belts circumnavigating the poles. Variability in the CPV area, shape, and position are important topics in geoenvironmental sciences because of the many links to environmental features. However, a means of characterizing the CPV has remained elusive. The goal of this research is to (i) identify the Northern Hemisphere CPV (NHCPV) and its morphometric characteristics, (ii) understand the daily characteristics of NHCPV area and circularity over time, (iii) identify and analyze spatiotemporal variability in the NHCPV’s centroid, and (iv) analyze how CPV features relate …

Application Of Randomness In Finance, Jose Sanchez, Daanial Ahmad, Satyanand Singh

Publications and Research

Brownian Motion which is also considered to be a Wiener process and can be thought of as a random walk. In our project we had briefly discussed the fluctuations of financial indices and related it to Brownian Motion and the modeling of Stock prices.

Improving Bayesian Graph Convolutional Networks Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Graph Sampling, Aneesh Komanduri

Computer Science and Computer Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

In the modern age of social media and networks, graph representations of real-world phenomena have become incredibly crucial. Often, we are interested in understanding how entities in a graph are interconnected. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have proven to be a very useful tool in a variety of graph learning tasks including node classification, link prediction, and edge classification. However, in most of these tasks, the graph data we are working with may be noisy and may contain spurious edges. That is, there is a lot of uncertainty associated with the underlying graph structure. Recent approaches to modeling uncertainty have been …

Statistical Analysis Of 2017-18 Premier League Match Statistics Using A Regression Analysis In R, Bergen Campbell

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This thesis analyzes the correlation between a team’s statistics and the success of their performances, and develops a predictive model that can be used to forecast final season results for that team. Data from the 2017-2018 Premier League season is to be gathered and broken down within R to highlight what factors and variables are largely contributing to the success or downfall of a team. A multiple linear regression model and stepwise selection process is then used to include any factors that are significant in predicting in match results.

The predictions about the 17-18 season results based on the model …

An Exploratory Analysis Of The Bgsu Learning Commons Student Usage Data, Emily Eskuri

Honors Projects

The purpose of this study was to explore past student usage data in individualized tutoring sessions from the Learning Commons from two academic years. The Bowling Green State University (BGSU) Learning Commons is a learning assistance center that offers various services, such as individualized tutoring, math assistance, writing assistance, study hours, and academic coaching. There have been limited research studies into how big data and analytics can have an impact in higher education, especially research utilizing predictive analytics.

This project applied analytics to individualized tutoring data in the Learning Commons to create a better understanding of why those trends happen …

Netsci High: Bringing Agency To Diverse Teens Through The Science Of Connected Systems, Stephen M. Uzzo, Catherine B. Cramer, Hiroki Sayama, Russell Faux

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This paper follows NetSci High, a decade-long initiative to inspire teams of teenage researchers to develop, execute and disseminate original research in network science. The project introduced high school students to the computer-based analysis of networks, and instilled in the participants the habits of mind to deepen inquiry in connected systems and statistics, and to sustain interest in continuing to study and pursue careers in fields involving network analysis. Goals of NetSci High ranged from proximal learning outcomes (e.g., increasing high school student competencies in computing and improving student attitudes toward computing) to highly distal (e.g., preparing students for 21st …

Node Classification On Relational Graphs Using Deep-Rgcns, Nagasai Chandra

Master's Theses

Knowledge Graphs are fascinating concepts in machine learning as they can hold usefully structured information in the form of entities and their relations. Despite the valuable applications of such graphs, most knowledge bases remain incomplete. This missing information harms downstream applications such as information retrieval and opens a window for research in statistical relational learning tasks such as node classification and link prediction. This work proposes a deep learning framework based on existing relational convolutional (R-GCN) layers to learn on highly multi-relational data characteristic of realistic knowledge graphs for node property classification tasks. We propose a deep and improved variant, …

Predictive Modeling And Estimation Of The Doubling Time Of Confirmed Cases Of Covid-19 In Niger, Ibrahim Sidi Zakari, Hadiza Galadima

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Modeling is increasingly used to assess scenarios and make projections on the future course of new coronavirus disease. This allows for better planning of care as well as a relaxation or tightening of the restrictive measures decreed by the government and the health authorities. The data analyzed in this study covers the period from March 19 to June 05, 2020 and allowed predictions of new cases of COVID-19 based on a growth model with a growth rate that changes linearly over time. In addition, we calculated and predicted the doubling time of the number of positive cases in each region …

Clustering Web Users By Mouse Movement To Detect Bots And Botnet Attacks, Justin L. Morgan

Master's Theses

The need for website administrators to efficiently and accurately detect the presence of web bots has shown to be a challenging problem. As the sophistication of modern web bots increases, specifically their ability to more closely mimic the behavior of humans, web bot detection schemes are more quickly becoming obsolete by failing to maintain effectiveness. Though machine learning-based detection schemes have been a successful approach to recent implementations, web bots are able to apply similar machine learning tactics to mimic human users, thus bypassing such detection schemes. This work seeks to address the issue of machine learning based bots bypassing …

Sars-Cov-2 Pandemic Analytical Overview With Machine Learning Predictability, Anthony Tanaydin, Jingchen Liang, Daniel W. Engels

SMU Data Science Review

Understanding diagnostic tests and examining important features of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection are essential steps for controlling the current pandemic of 2020. In this paper, we study the relationship between clinical diagnosis and analytical features of patient blood panels from the US, Mexico, and Brazil. Our analysis confirms that among adults, the risk of severe illness from COVID-19 increases with pre-existing conditions such as diabetes and immunosuppression. Although more than eight months into pandemic, more data have become available to indicate that more young adults were getting infected. In addition, we expand on the definition of COVID-19 test and discuss …

Computing For Numeracy: How Safe Is Your Covid-19 Social Bubble?, Charles Connor

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic has led many people to form social bubbles. These social bubbles are small groups of people who interact with one another but restrict interactions with the outside world. The assumption in forming social bubbles is that risk of infection and severe outcomes, like hospitalization, are reduced. How effective are social bubbles? A Bayesian event tree is developed to calculate the probabilities of specific outcomes, like hospitalization, using example rates of infection in the greater community and example prior functions describing the effectiveness of isolation by members of the social bubble. The probabilities are solved for two contrasting …

Is Technological Progress A Random Walk? Examining Data From Space Travel, Michael Howell, Daniel Berleant, Hyacinthe Aboudja, Richard Segall, Peng-Hung Tsai

Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science

Improvement in a variety of technologies can often be successful modeled using a general version of Moore’s law (i.e. exponential improvements over time). Another successful approach is Wright’s law, which models increases in technological capability as a function of an effort variable such as production. While these methods are useful, they do not provide prediction distributions, which would enable a better understanding of forecast quality

Farmer and Lafond (2016) developed a forecasting method which produces forecast distributions and is applicable to many kinds of technology. A fundamental assumption of their method is that technological progress can be modeled as a …

Statistical Approaches For Estimation And Comparison Of Brain Functional Connectivity, Jifang Zhao

Theses and Dissertations

Drug addiction can lead to many health-related problems and social concerns. Functional connectivity obtained from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data promotes a variety of fundamental understandings in such association. Due to its complex correlation structure and large dimensionality, the modeling and analysis of the functional connectivity from neuroimage are challenging. By proposing a spatio-temporal model for multi-subject neuroimage data, we incorporate voxel-level spatio-temporal dependencies of whole-brain measurements to improve the accuracy of statistical inference. To tackle large-scale spatio-temporal neuroimage data, we develop a computationally efficient algorithm to estimate the parameters. Our method is used to identify functional connectivity and …

Assessing And Forecasting Chlorophyll Abundances In Minnesota Lake Using Remote Sensing And Statistical Approaches, Ben Von Korff

All Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects

Harmful algae blooms (HABs) can negatively impact water quality, lake aesthetics, and can harm human and animal health. However, monitoring for HABs is rare in Minnesota. Detecting blooms which can vary spatially and may only be present briefly is challenging, so expanding monitoring in Minnesota would require the use of new and cost efficient technologies. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were used for bloom mapping using RGB and near-infrared imagery. Real time monitoring was conducted in Bass Lake, in Faribault County, MN using trail cameras. Time series forecasting was conducted with high frequency chlorophyll-a data from a water quality sonde. Normalized …

Neither “Post-War” Nor Post-Pregnancy Paranoia: How America’S War On Drugs Continues To Perpetuate Disparate Incarceration Outcomes For Pregnant, Substance-Involved Offenders, Becca S. Zimmerman

Pitzer Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the unique interactions between pregnancy, substance involvement, and race as they relate to the War on Drugs and the hyper-incarceration of women. Using ordinary least square regression analyses and data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ 2016 Survey of Prison Inmates, I examine if (and how) pregnancy status, drug use, race, and their interactions influence two length of incarceration outcomes: sentence length and amount of time spent in jail between arrest and imprisonment. The results collectively indicate that pregnancy decreases length of incarceration outcomes for those offenders who are not substance-involved but not evenhandedly -- benefitting white …

Dimension Reduction Techniques In Regression, Pei Wang

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

Because of the advances of modern technology, the size of the collected data nowadays is larger and the structure is more complex. To deal with such kinds of data, sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) and reduced rank (RR) regression are two powerful tools. This dissertation focuses on these two tools and it is composed of three projects. In the first project, we introduce a new SDR method through a novel approach of feature filter to recover the central mean subspace exhaustively along with a method to determine the dimension, two variable selection methods, and extensions to multivariate response and large p …

Uncovering Object Categories In Infant Views, Naiti S. Bhatt

Scripps Senior Theses

While adults recognize objects in a near-instant, infants must learn how to categorize the objects in their visual environments. Recent work has shown that egocentric head-mounted camera videos contain rich data that illuminate the infant experience (Clerkin et al., 2017; Franchak et al., 2011; Yoshida & Smith, 2008). While past work has focused on the social information in view, in this work, we aim to characterize the objects in infants’ at-home visual environments by modifying modern computer vision models for the infant view. To do so, we collected manual annotations of objects that infants seemed to be interacting within a …