Data Science Commons^™

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Divad: A Dynamic And Interactive Visual Analytical Dashboard For Exploring And Analyzing Transport Data, Tin Seong Kam, Ketan Barshikar, Shaun Jun Hua Tan

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The advances in location-based data collection technologies such as GPS, RFID etc. and the rapid reduction of their costs provide us with a huge and continuously increasing amount of data about movement of vehicles, people and goods in an urban area. This explosive growth of geospatially-referenced data has far outpaced the planner’s ability to utilize and transform the data into insightful information thus creating an adverse impact on the return on the investment made to collect and manage this data. Addressing this pressing need, we designed and developed DIVAD, a dynamic and interactive visual analytics dashboard to allow city planners …

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Semi-Automatic Management Of Knowledge Bases Using Formal Ontologies, Andreas Textor

Theses

This thesis presents an approach that deals with the ever-growing amount of data in knowledge bases, especially concerning knowledge interoperability and formal representation of domain knowledge. There arc multiple issues that must be addressed with current systems. A multitude of different formats, sources and tools exist in a domain, and it is desirable to develop their use further towards a standardised environment. Such an environment should support both the representation and processing of data from this domain, and the connection to other domains, where necessary. In order to manage large amounts of data, it should be possible to perform whatever …

Information Brokerage - A New Approach Using Knowledge Management, Robert Loew

Theses

Traditional knowledge management attempts to store the total enterprise knowledge into IT related structures, but knowledge management strategies should focus also on people and organisations and not just on technology.

This can be addressed in part by communicating knowledge between people, in and across organisations. Such communication focuses on the development and exchange of people’s experience.

This thesis introduces a hybrid knowledge management solution consisting of an automated system that includes people: employees, experts and Knowledge Brokers (KB). The hybrid concept supports the identification of suitable people for certain topics of discussion. Further, it supports the knowledge communication process by …

Object Reuse And Exchange, Michael L. Nelson, Carl Lagoze, Herbert Van De Sompel, Pete Johnston, Robert Sanderson, Simeon Warner, Jürgen Sieck (Ed.), Michael A. Herzog (Ed.)

Computer Science Faculty Publications

The Open Archives Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE) project defines standards for the description and exchange of aggregations of Web resources. The OAI-ORE abstract data model is conformant with the Architecture of the World Wide Web and leverages concepts from the Semantic Web, including RDF descriptions and Linked Data. In this paper we provide a brief review of a motivating example and its serialization in Atom.

Methods And System For Equalizing Data, Jaiganesh Balakrishnan, Richard K. Martin, C. Richard Johnson Jr.

AFIT Patents

A method for equalizing data and systems utilizing the method. The method of this invention for equalizing (by shortening the channel response) data includes minimizing a function of the data and a number of equalizer characteristic parameters, where the function utilizes auto-correlation data corresponding to equalized data. Updated equalizer characteristic parameters are then obtained from the minimization and an initial set of equalizer characteristic parameters. Finally, the received data is processed utilizing the equalizer defined by the minimization. The method of this invention can be implemented in an equalizer and the equalizer of this invention may be included in a …

Information Visualization Methods And Techniques Using Web Services, Kevin Dupigny

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Data, even in small amounts, can be difficult to interpret quickly and efficiently. Data domains are continually expanding and making this data available and usable in collaborative data environment is a challenge that was not addressed by legacy systems. Such a framework would make the existence of a global information sharing system feasible. Visualizing this complex dataset presents a complex task for current static interface solutions. A flexible layered service oriented model is presented in this work to approach this challenge. The visual scope of human perception is largely untapped by today's data visualization applications. Human mental processes are adept …

A Component Based Formal Ontology Model, A Method For Evaluating Such A Model, And The Results Of An Application Of That Method, Charles Tumitsa

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

For systems to truly communicate effectively, more than just data interchange is necessary. The systems must achieve conceptual interoperability, which implies communicating with understanding.

The LCIM (Levels of Conceptual Interoperability Model) describes a number of levels of interoperability, each of which shows systems with an increased amount of conceptual understanding of the other systems they are communicating with. The lowest levels of this model, technical and syntactic interoperability, are achieved (and there are many existing examples) via data exchange in a number of different ways. Research has shown, however, that to attain higher levels of conceptual understanding, that there must …

Synchronization And Multiple Group Server Support For Kepler, K. Maly, M. Zubair, H. Siripuram, S. Zunjarwad, Yannis Manolopoulos (Ed.), Joaquim Filipe (Ed.), Panos Constantopoulos (Ed.), José Cordeiro (Ed.)

Computer Science Faculty Publications

In the last decade literally thousands of digital libraries have emerged but one of the biggest obstacles for dissemination of information to a user community is that many digital libraries use different, proprietary technologies that inhibit interoperability. Kepler framework addresses interoperability and gives publication control to individual publishers. In Kepler, OAI-PMH is used to support "personal data providers" or "archivelets".". In our vision, individual publishers can be integrated with an institutional repository like Dspace by means of a Kepler Group Digital Library (GDL). The GDL aggregates metadata and full text from archivelets and can act as an OAI-compliant data provider …

Scis Networking - Summer-Fall 1998, Nova Southeastern University

CCIS Networking / SCIS Networking magazines

No abstract provided.

An Examination Of Multi-Tier Designs For Legacy Data Access, Michael L. Acker

Theses and Dissertations

This work examines the application of Java and the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) to support access to remote databases via the Internet. The research applies these software technologies to assist an Air Force distance learning provider in improving the capabilities of its World Wide Web-based correspondence system. An analysis of the distance learning provider's operation revealed a strong dependency on a non-collocated legacy relational database. This dependency limits the distance learning provider's future web-based capabilities. A recommendation to improve operation by data replication is proposed, and the implementation details are provided for two alternative test systems that support …

Scis Networking - January 1997, Nova Southeastern University

CCIS Networking / SCIS Networking magazines

No abstract provided.

Scis Networking - July 1995, Nova Southeastern University

CCIS Networking / SCIS Networking magazines

No abstract provided.

Scis Networking - January 1995, Nova Southeastern University - Shepard Broad College Of Law

CCIS Networking / SCIS Networking magazines

No abstract provided.

Ccis Networking - July 1993, Nova University

CCIS Networking / SCIS Networking magazines

No abstract provided.

Ccis Networking - January 1993, Nova University

CCIS Networking / SCIS Networking magazines

No abstract provided.

Ccis Networking - July 1992, Nova University

CCIS Networking / SCIS Networking magazines

No abstract provided.