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Ensemble Forecasting Of Coronal Mass Ejections Using The Wsa-Enlil With Coned Model, Daniel J. Emmons Ii
Ensemble Forecasting Of Coronal Mass Ejections Using The Wsa-Enlil With Coned Model, Daniel J. Emmons Ii
Theses and Dissertations
The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and Coned Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with Coned Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (CME's). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the Coned Model. The Coned Model employed image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO-LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. [2010]. The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the …