Applied Mathematics Commons^™

Traveling Wave Fronts For Sir Epidemic Models With Nonlocal Dispersal And Delayed Effects, Ashley Evette Embry

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates traveling wave solutions for two classes of delayed nonlocal dispersal susceptible--infected--recovered (SIR) epidemic models incorporating biologically realistic mechanisms such as delayed infectivity, delayed dispersal, nonlocal transmission, demographic turnover, and nonlinear incidence effects. These models extend classical spatial epidemic frameworks by allowing long-range population movement through nonlocal dispersal operators and incorporating temporal memory into both diffusion and transmission processes. The primary objective is to establish the existence of traveling wave solutions connecting disease-free equilibria to endemic states and to characterize threshold conditions governing epidemic propagation. The simultaneous presence of nonlocal dispersal, multiple delays, and non-monotone nonlinear incidence terms …

Stochastic Invasion And Extinction In Environmentally Transmitted Diseases, Mahmudul Bari Hridoy, Lauren M. Childs

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Modeling, Control Analysis, And Parameter Estimation Of Epidemic Dynamics Using The Unscented Kalman Filter, Muhammad Imran, Saira Batool, Brett Mckinney

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Dynamics Of A Two-Stage Epidemiological Model With Post-Infection Mortality And Transmission Heterogeneity, B Sagar

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Phylogeny Informed Mathematical Model Of Hpai H5n1 Transmission And Control In Multi Host Systems, Oluwatosin Babasola

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Parameter Sensitivity, Identifiability, And Estimation For A Data-Driven Model Of Malaria, Katharine Gurski, Kathleen Hofman

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Stochastic Universal Differential Equations For Epidemiological Modeling: Uncertainty Quantification In Disease Transmission Dynamics, Alice Menaya Armah-Bonney

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Epidemic forecasting requires not only predictions of expected case counts, but also quantification of uncertainty, although existing surrogate modeling frameworks for agent-based models remain fundamentally deterministic. In this thesis a Stochastic Universal Differential Equation framework is presented that extends the deterministic Universal Differential Equation approach by incorporating a learnable stochastic diffusion term, enabling calibrated probabilistic forecasts while preserving the mechanistic interpretability and computational efficiency of the deterministic baseline. In doing so, a two-phase training algorithm is introduced to ensure stable convergence and the framework is validated against the ensemble output from ExaEpi, an exascale agent-based model of a COVID-19 outbreak …

A Modified Sir Model Used To Investigate The Relationship Between Congenital And Adult Syphilis, Kaleesta R. Waysman

Honors Thesis

A complex SIR model integrating the relationship between adult and congenital syphilis was developed. The goal of the project was to determine the specific population(s) or control strategies that should be enforced, altered, or removed to decrease the number of children experiencing clinical sequelae due to congenital syphilis. Early clinical sequelae include hydrops fetalis, preterm birth, central nervous system infection, hepatosplenomegaly, hyperbilirubinemia, cholestasis, hemolytic anemia, snuffles, osteochondritis, and lesions or rashes in the palms and soles. Late clinical sequelae include interstitial keratitis, hearing loss, Hutchinson teeth, saber shins, Clutton joints, mulberry molars, and saddle nose. After implementing real-world data into …

A Mathematical Modeling Approach To Investigate The Impacts Of Post-Infection Mortality And Partial Immunity On Disease Endemicity, Brendan M. Shrader

Honors Undergraduate Theses

A number of infectious diseases cause post-infection conditions or complications, such as COVID- 19, Q fever, and Polio. These conditions result in recovered individuals having a higher mortality rate than susceptibles, and this can impact disease dynamics. An existing mass-action model in the literature that incorporated post-infection mortality was shown to have limit cycles, or persistent oscillations, in the infected population. To better understand what causes these limit cycles, we develop and analyze a new epidemiological model with standard incidence. We show standard results, including the existence, uniqueness, and stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria, and we rule out …

Mathematical Modelling And Analysis For The Co-Infection Of Viral And Bacterial Diseases: A Systematic Review Protocol, Timothy Kiprono Yano, Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah, Julia Collins, Ute Mueller, Steven Richardson

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Introduction Breaking the chain of transmission of an infectious disease pathogen is a major public health priority. The challenges of understanding, describing and predicting the transmission dynamics of infections have led to a wide range of mathematical, statistical and biological research problems. Advances in diagnostic laboratory procedures with the ability to test multiple pathogens simultaneously mean that co-infections are increasingly being detected, yet little is known about the impact of co-infections in shaping the course of an infection, infectivity, and pathogen replication rate. This is particularly true of the apparent synergistic effects of viral and bacterial co-infections, which present the …

Mathematical Modelling Of Disease Outbreak, Favour Christian, Matthew Molloy

SURE Journal: Science Undergraduate Research Experience Journal

Establishing a model framework for more research necessitates a thorough understanding of the causes, distribution, prevalence, and evolution of infectious illnesses. The main mathematical concept used in this modelling simulation is ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The purpose of this study was to investigate the significance of the many criteria linked to a zombie virus spread. The zombie framework provides an accessible and relatively simple representation of the nature of infectious disease spread, allowing for tractable assumptions and the development of more complex situations.

The models are designed around a zombie outbreak in which the zombie virus is spread through a …

Modeling Fast Information And Slow(Er) Disease Spreading: A Geometric Analysis, Iulia Martina Bulai, Mattia Sensi, Sara Sottile

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Using Splines To Investigate The Effects Of Temperature On The Within-Mosquito Malaria Parasite Forms, Alexander J. Diefes, Miranda I. Teboh-Ewungkem

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Comparative Analysis Of Source Identification Algorithms, Pablo A. Curiel

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Incorporating Awareness, Misinformation And Optimal Control In A Model Of Sars-Cov-2, Eric Numfor

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Information Feedback Delays Within Epidemic Models And Their Effect On Model Dynamics., Maria K. Bouka, Christopher Strickland Dr

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Estimating Modeling Parameters For Covid-19 Spread On Campus, Aviel S. Crigger

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Understanding the true burden of community transmission of communicable diseases like COVID-19 is crucial for effective public health response. Clinical cases, while important, only represent a fraction of the actual disease prevalence within a population. In this thesis, we investigate methods to estimate parameters that link clinical cases to the true disease prevalence using a modified compartmental model known as SICR (Susceptible, Infected, Cases, Recovered). We employ Bayesian inference and ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to analyze clinical case data provided by the University of Central Florida Health Center from 2020 to 2022. Our goal is to estimate …

A Novel Family Of Chain Binomial Models To Investigate Correlated Vaccination And Infection Rates In Sveirs Epidemic Dynamics, Divine Wanduku

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Generalized Differential Equation Models For Disease Interventions: A Novel Approach For Predicting Sexually Transmitted Disease Outbreaks, Scott Greenhalgh

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Relative Efficacy Of Resource Constrained Forward And Backward Contact Tracing In An Open Population, Nicholas Roberts

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Modeling The Dynamics Of Alcohol-Marijuana Co-Abuse In Virginia, Ana L. Vivas-Barber, James Tipton, Sujan Pant, Anne Fernando

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Imperfect Immunity And The Stability Of A Modified Kermack-Mckendrick Model, Kaylee Sims

Honors Theses

The classic Kermack-McKendrick model of mathematical epidemiology suggests that a population is only in equilibrium when there is no disease present. In the modern era, we have several cyclic infectious diseases that show no signs of eradication, despite global health measures. In this thesis, we introduce a coefficient of waning immunity in order to produce a modified Kermack-McKendrick model and analyze whether the model yields system stability with a certain amount of infection present. Ultimately, the model is incongruent with real-world case data, with its most glaring failure being exponential dampening of the height of each disease case peak due …

Epidemiological Assessment Of Wolbachia-Based Biocontrol For Reduction Of Dengue Morbidity, Olga Vasilieva, Oscar E. Escobar, Hector J. Martinez, Pierre-Alexandre Bliman, Yves Dumont

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Understanding Biofilm-Phage Interactions In Mathematical Framework, Blessing Emerenini

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Optimal Intervention Strategies To Minimize Spread Of Infectious Diseases And Economic Impact On A Dynamic Small-World Network, Malindi Whyte, Danielle Dasilva

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Mathematical Model Of Zika Epidemic In Colombia, Sethupathy Ganesan

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Modeling And Analysis Of Social Contagion In Overweight And Obesity Epidemic, Chathuri Edirisinghe Arachchige

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Rewriting The Rules For Diagnostics: Implications Of Probability And Measure Theory For Sars-Cov-2 Testing, Paul Patrone, Anthony Kearsley

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Prep Uptake And Adherence On The Spread Of Hiv In The Presence Of Casual And Long-Term Partnerships, Sylvia J. Gutowska, Katharine Gurski, Kathleen Hoffman

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Analysis Of Sir Epidemic Models With Sociological Phenomenon, Robert F. Allen, Katherine C. Heller, Matthew A. Pons

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological differences. We compute the basic reproduction number for each model, as well as analyze the sensitivity of R₀ to changes in sociological parameter values.