Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Evolution Of The El Niño-Southern Oscillation And Tropical Pacific Climate Across The Last Deglaciation, Ryan Hunter Glaubke

OES Theses and Dissertations

The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest interannual component of Earth’s climate system, capable of exerting significant influence over global climate patterns that affect communities around the globe. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the ENSO system and its relationship to tropical Pacific climate dynamics remains unclear. Although new paleoceanographic proxies have shown promise in in their ability to constrain past ENSO change, little is known about how ENSO varied in response to millennial-scale climate events over the last 25,000 years. Here, I present new records of tropical Pacific mean state and ENSO variability over the last 25,000 …

Applying Science To Pressing Conservation Needs For Penguins, P. D. Boersma, P. García Borboroglu, Natasha J. Gownaris, C. A. Bost, A. Chiaradia, S. Ellis, T. Schneider, P. J. Seddon, A. Simeone, P. N. Trathan, L. J. Waller, B. Wienecke

Environmental Studies Faculty Publications

More than half of the world's 18 penguin species are declining. We, the Steering Committee of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission Penguin Specialist Group, determined that the penguin species in most critical need of conservation action are African penguin (Spheniscus demersus) , Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus) , and Yellow‐eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) . Due to small or rapidly declining populations, these species require immediate scientific collaboration and policy intervention. We also used a pairwise‐ranking approach to prioritize research and conservation needs for all penguins. Among the 12 cross‐taxa research areas we identified, we ranked quantifying …

Climate Change Impacts On Winter Wheat Yield In Northern China, Xiu Geng, Fang Wang, Wei Ren, Zhixin Hao

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change. We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb–Douglas production function. Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed. It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762–1.921% in absolute terms. Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981–2016. A …

The Spectroscopic And Computational Exploration Of Sulfur Hydrogen Bonding, Andrew Yoonkeun Lee

Honors Projects

Hydrogen bonds are a subset of non-covalent interactions that occur between X-H — Y, in which X and Y are the very electronegative atoms. In our research, we examine the more unconventional hydrogen bond-like interactions of thiol (SH) containing molecules using vapor-phase infrared (IR) spectroscopy and ab initio computational chemistry. When the SH hydrogen bond donor complexes to a hydrogen bond acceptor, a red shift of the SH stretching mode emerges. An anharmonic oscillator local mode model is applied to the ethanethiol-trimethylamine dimer, and we determine that any IR evidence of dimerization in our experiment is likely obscured by the …

Next-Generation Rainfall Idf Curves For The Virginian Drainage Area Of Chesapeake Bay, Xixi Wang, Xiaomin Yang, Zhaoyi Cai

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Probability-based intensity-duration-frequency IDF curves are needed but currently lacking for Department of Defense DoD to construct and manage its infrastructure in changing climate. The objectives of this project were to 1 develop an innovative approach for considering rainfall non-stationarity in developing such IDF curves and 2 apply this approach to the state of Virginia. In this regard, the observed data on 15-min rainfall at 57 gauges and the precipitations projected by twelve pairs of Regional Climate Model RCM and Global Circulation Model GCM were used. For a given gauge or watershed, in terms of fitting the empirical exceedance probabilities, a …

Assessment Of Agricultural Drought Considering The Hydrological Cycle And Crop Phenology In The Korean Peninsula, Chul-Hee Lim, Seung Hee Kim, Jong Ahn Chun, Menas Kafatos, Woo-Kyun Lee

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Hydrological changes attributable to global warming increase the severity and frequency of droughts, which in turn affect agriculture. Hence, we proposed the Standardized Agricultural Drought Index (SADI), which is a new drought index specialized for agriculture and crops, and evaluated current and expected droughts in the Korean Peninsula. The SADI applies crop phenology to the hydrological cycle, which is a basic element that assesses drought. The SADI of rice and maize was calculated using representative hydrological variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff) of the crop growing season. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of SADI, the three-month Standardized Precipitation Index, which …

Fallen Pillars: The Past, Present, And Future Population Dynamics Of A Rare, Specialist Coral–Algal Symbiosis, Andrea Chan, Cynthia L. Lewis, Karen L. Neely, Iliana B. Baums

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

With ongoing changes in climate, rare and ecologically specialized species are at increased risk of extinction. In sessile foundation fauna that reproduce asexually via fragmentation of existing colonies, the number of colonies does not reflect the number of genets and thus can obscure genotypic diversity. Colonies that are the product of fragmentation are not visually distinguishable from colonies that stem from sexual recruits. For this reason, molecular markers are necessary to assess genotypic variation and population structure in clonal organisms such as reef-building corals and their endosymbiotic dinoflagellates. For the rare Caribbean pillar coral, Dendrogyra cylindrus, and its endosymbiotic …

Facilitating Greenhouse Gas Reduction And Climate Change Adaptation Within The Coastal Zone: A Policy Analysis For The California Coastal Commission, Nicole Young

Master's Theses

California is already experiencing impacts to its coastline due to climate change, and more severe impacts are anticipated if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. These climate change impacts are especially strong within the California coastal zone, which falls under the jurisdiction of the California Coastal Commission. The Commission has a history of rigorous environmental protection and is committed to protecting California’s coast through proactive planning and regulation, however they will need to initiate coastal policies with ambitious targets to facilitate effective climate change adaptation and mitigation. This study analyzed existing California climate policies and Coastal Commission policies to identify …

Ethical Implications Of Population Growth And Reduction, Tiana Sepahpour

Student Theses 2015-Present

No abstract provided.

Circumpolar Status Of Arctic Ptarmigan: Population Dynamics And Trends, Eva Fuglei, John-Andre ́ Henden, Chris T. Callahan, Olivier Gilg, Jannik Hansen, Rolf A. Ims, Arkady P. Isaev, Johannes Lang, Carol L. Mcintyre, Richard A. Merizon, Oleg Y. Mineev, Yuri N. Mineev, Dave Mossop, Olafur K. Nielsen, Erlend B. Nilsen, Ashild Ønvik Pedersen, Niels Martin Martin, Benoıt Sittler, Maria Hørnell Willebrand, Kathy Martin

United States National Park Service: Publications

Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. …

Biogeography Of Endemic Dragonflies Of The Ozark-Ouachita Interior Highlands, Wade Alexander Boys

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

A common pattern across many taxonomic groups is that relatively few species are widespread while the majority are restricted in their geographic ranges. Such species distributions are used to inform conservation status, which poses unique challenges for rare or cryptic species. Further, priority status is often designated within geopolitical boundaries, which may include only a portion of a species range. This, coupled with lack of distributional data, has resulted in species being designated as apparently rare throughout some portions of their range, which may not accurately reflect their overall conservation need. The Interior Highlands region of the central United States …

An Examination Of Seasonal Shifts In Climate And Visitation, And Perspectives On Seasonal Shifts And Climate Adaptation Strategies In Tourism And Recreation Businesses For Moab, Utah, Elizabeth Cook

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The city of Moab, an outdoor recreation hub in eastern Utah, has been encountering both shifts in the seasonality of visitation, and increases in tourist visitation, even with summer temperatures above the normal high. Tourism research describing the effects of climate change on the outdoor recreation industry has focused on winter, snow-dependent activities, while studies in Moab city have focused on the economic value of outdoor recreational activities. Few studies have described the relationship between seasonal tourism and climate change for arid desert locations. The purpose of this study is to describe how the tourism and recreation industry in Moab, …

Indirect Legacy Effects Of An Extreme Climatic Event On A Marine Megafaunal Community, Robert Nowicki, Michael Heithaus, Jordan Thompson, Derek Burkholder, Kirk Gastrich, Aaron Wirsing

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

While extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent, reliably predicting their impacts on consumers remains challenging, particularly for large consumers in marine environments. Many studies that do evaluate ECE effects focus primarily on direct effects, though indirect effects can be equally or more important. Here, we investigate the indirect impacts of the 2011 “Ningaloo Niño” marine heatwave ECE on a diverse megafaunal community in Shark Bay, Western Australia. We use an 18‐year community‐level data set before (1998–2010) and after (2012–2015) the heatwave to assess the effects of seagrass loss on the abundance of seven consumer groups: sharks, …

Fostering University Collaboration And Building Capacity To Respond To Coastal Resilience Challenges In Virginia: Findings From The Rotating Resilience Roundtables Workshop Spring 2019, Wie Yusuf, Michelle Covi, Anamaria Bukvic, Tom Allen, Taiwo Oguntuyo

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

[from Background and Overview]

Communities in coastal Virginia, particularly in the urban region of Hampton Roads and the rural Eastern Shore peninsula, are experiencing the impacts of climate change as part of everyday life. Among the most apparent impacts are sea level rise and associated flooding, but increasingly residents of the region are observing changing ecosystems, health impacts and complex social challenges are made more difficult. The region is experiencing the fastest rate of relative sea level rise on the U.S. east coast due to interactions between ocean currents, global sea level rise, high-water tables and ground subsidence (Adapt Virginia …

Adjudication And The Adaptive Capacity Of Pecan Farmers In The Lower Rio Grande, Daniel R. Beene

Geography ETDs

Despite growing uncertainty of water availability in the future and popular understandings of water conservation in agriculture, a growing number of farmers in the Lower Rio Grande Basin are rapidly transitioning to pecan orchards, a long-term and highly water-dependent crop. Drivers of landscape change can be environmental, historic, socioeconomic, or institutional. Adaptation to change is understood as responses to external stimuli and is limited to a threshold by which an actor can meet their goals. Much of the current scholarship focuses on a given population’s adaptive capacity toward global climate change, however, most water policy in the western United States …

Characterization Of Psychromonas Aquimarina, A New Model Organism For Climate Change, Carrie Carpenter

Experiential Learning Projects

The current increase of average global temperature puts 25 to 35 percent of plant and animal species at an increased risk of extinction (Climate Change, 2018). Changing any environmental factor, such as increasing growth temperature, can significantly impact any organisms’ ability to survive. Because of the diversity of organisms on the planet, it is not feasible to study how each individually might adapt, but rather it is more efficient to study select organisms. This research focuses on a psychrophilic bacterium, Psychromonas aquimarina, which can survive in colder regions where most bacteria would not. This bacterium was chosen because climate change …

Effects Of Increased Precipitation On The Life History Of Spring- And Autumn-Germinated Plants Of The Cold Desert Annual Erodium Oxyrhynchum (Geraniaceae), Yanfeng Chen, Xiang Shi, Lingwei Zhang, Jerry M. Baskin, Carol C. Baskin, Huiliang Liu, Daoyuan Zhang

Biology Faculty Publications

Future increased precipitation in cold desert ecosystems may impact annual/ephemeral plant species that germinate in both spring and autumn. Our primary aim was to compare the life history characteristics of plants from spring-germinating (SG) and autumn-germinating (AG) seeds of Erodium oxyrhynchum. Plants in field plots with simulated increases in precipitation of 0, 30 and 50 % in spring and summer were monitored to determine seedling survival, phenology, plant size, seed production and biomass accumulation and allocation. Germination characteristics were determined in the laboratory for seeds produced by plants in all increased precipitation treatments. Increased precipitation in spring significantly improved survival …

Changes In Spring Arrival Times: Climate Change And The Phenology Of Spring Bird Migration, Aaron Svedlow

Student Scholarship

Climate change and weather affect the phenology of bird migration; however, specific climatological factors associated with these observed effects have only recently been described. The relationship between local, regional, and global climate patterns and avian migration are increasingly important to understand due to the widespread, and potentially negative, implications (such as reduced fecundity) of rapid human induced climate change on bird populations. Migratory birds are under selective pressure to arrive at breeding areas at the optimal time to set up nesting territories and exploit seasonally abundant food resources, and because climate change has the potential to occur more rapidly than …

Precipitation Trends Across The Commonwealth Of Virginia (1947 – 2016), Michael J. Allen, Thomas R. Allen

Virginia Journal of Science

Water is an important resource for the Commonwealth of Virginia. Too much water increases runoff, disrupt transportation networks, and contributes to school closures. Too little water may adversely impact agricultural operations. To improve climate-related information to Virginia citizens, this study assesses means and changes in precipitation across the Commonwealth of Virginia (1947 – 2016). Using daily station-level precipitation data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN), descriptive statistics were calculated for 43 locations in terms of total precipitation (inches decade^-1), precipitation days (x>0”), and heavy precipitation days (x>1.0”). On average, locations showed an overall increase in …

Iceland's Migratory Birds In Changing Environmental Conditions: An Interactive Synthesis, Frances J. Duncan

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Human-driven changes to environmental conditions alter the habitats, behaviors, and migration patterns of migratory species. Changes in temperature, vegetation, and precipitation are just some of the factors contributing to shifts in phenology, demography, and distribution of migratory birds. These changes are driven by anthropogenic climate change and amplified by human land-use change, and are especially intense at high latitudes. This project creatively communicates the effects of environmental changes on three species of migratory birds in Iceland—the northern wheatear, the Greenland white-fronted goose, and the black-tailed godwit—using principles of storytelling and game design. The resulting interactive product is a game that …

Kanjirowa Blues: An Exploration Of Environmental And Climate Consciousness In Lower Dolpa, Nepal, Casey Greenleaf

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

It has been scientifically demonstrated that high altitude, mountainous regions such as the Himalayas are extremely susceptible to and at accelerated risk of the effects of climate change. The regions of Lower Dolpa discussed in this work, Juphal, Dunai, Chun, and Dapu, lie in a glacial watershed, and are at present risk of landslides, floods, wildfires, and rely on agricultural and transhumant livelihoods that are uniquely susceptible to the impacts of changing temperature and weather patterns. People in this region are being forced to incrementally adapt and reframe their understanding of their surroundings due to both aforementioned severe events as …

“In Principle” Versus “In Reality”: Assessing The Potential Of Adaptive Urban Governance Toward Urban Flooding In Ho Chi Minh City’S District 7, Cindy Pham Nguyen

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Flooding has become the new normal in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During the rainy season, many areas of the city experience severe inundation that seriously impacts infrastructure, traffic, and economic transactions. As the effects of climate change unpredictably and rapidly manifest in Southern Vietnam, the frequency and impact of urban floods are projected to increase. In addition, within the last few decades, HCMC has rapidly developed and urbanized, transforming itself into the economic center of Southern Vietnam. However, previous studies and international experts have determined that rapid, poor development may be exacerbating urban flood issues.

In recent years, city …

Rising Temperatures In Hot Regions – How Many Species Would Be Able To Survive?, Sounak Ghosh

Biology Theses

Temperatures are rising throughout the world but not uniformly. Different latitudes have varying degrees of temperature rise and the most rapid changes are happening in the higher northern latitudes while only minor warming is taking place in the hot tropical regions. It has been widely assumed that the biggest ecological impacts will be seen in the cooler northern latitudes and that the impacts in hot tropical regions will be much smaller. However, if species in hot regions are already close to their thermal limits and if species in cold regions are far below them, it may be that small temperature …

Disappearing Act(Ions): College Perceptions Of Climate Change And Its Impacts On Tourism, Natalie A. Kisak, Brianna M. Costira

Student Publications

Various locations around the world are considered to be ‘disappearing’ due to the impacts of climate change on their natural attributes. This disappearance raises the question of how travel to those destinations will change in the future, and whether or not awareness of climate change might limit tourism. This study examines the presence of the last-chance tourism theory in college students, and hypothesizes that willingness to travel or engage in environmentally responsible behaviors will not change with increased awareness because of a desire to visit places before they disappear. A survey is used to gauge awareness and concern, as well …

The Ecological Impacts Of Climate Change In Hot Regions – Are Hawksbill Turtles Living Above Their Optimum Temperature In The Uae?, Obaid Ali Alshamsi

Theses

It is getting warmer throughout the world but it is not getting warmer by the same amount in all regions, leading to speculations that the biggest impact will be the impact on species living in the hot regions is widely assumed to be slight in comparison to the temperate and higher latitude regions. Temperature changes in hot regions are smaller, but it may be that the species in those regions have reached their optimum temperatures. In which case the effects of even a small temperature increase could be steeply negative. To test this thoroughly in terms of demographic parameters I …

Is Grassfed Meat And Dairy Better For Human And Environmental Health?, Frederick D. Provenza, Scott L. Kronberg, Pablo Gregorini

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

The health of livestock, humans, and environments is tied to plant diversity—and associated phytochemical richness—across landscapes. Health is enhanced when livestock forage on phytochemically rich landscapes, is reduced when livestock forage on simple mixture or monoculture pastures or consume high-grain rations in feedlots, and is greatly reduced for people who eat highly processed diets. Circumstantial evidence supports the hypothesis that phytochemical richness of herbivore diets enhances biochemical richness of meat and dairy, which is linked with human and environmental health. Among many roles they play in health, phytochemicals in herbivore diets protect meat and dairy from protein oxidation and lipid …

Public Perceptions Of The Health Risks Of Extreme Heat Across Us States, Counties, And Neighborhoods, Peter D. Howe, Jennifer R. Marlon, Xinran Wang, Anthony Leiserowitz

Environment and Society Faculty Publications

Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of death in the United States. Many individuals, however, fail to perceive this risk, which will be exacerbated by global warming. Given that awareness of one’s physical and social vulnerability is a critical precursor to preparedness for extreme weather events, understanding Americans’ perceptions of heat risk and their geographic variability is essential for promoting adaptive behaviors during heat waves. Using a large original survey dataset of 9,217 respondents, we create and validate a model of Americans’ perceived risk to their health from extreme heat in all 50 US states, 3,142 counties, and 72,429 …

A Green-Ish New Deal?, Shi-Ling Hsu

Scholarly Publications

No abstract provided.

Changes In Snow Phenology From 1979 To 2016 Over The Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia, Tao Yang, Qian Li, Sajjad Ahmad, Hongfei Zhou, Lanhai Li

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Snowmelt from the Tianshan Mountains (TS) is a major contributor to the water resources of the Central Asian region. Thus, changes in snow phenology over the TS have significant implications for regional water supplies and ecosystem services. However, the characteristics of changes in snow phenology and their influences on the climate are poorly understood throughout the entire TS due to the lack of in situ observations, limitations of optical remote sensing due to clouds, and decentralized political landscapes. Using passive microwave remote sensing snow data from 1979 to 2016 across the TS, this study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of snow …

Climate Change In A Differential Equations Course: Using Bifurcation Diagrams To Explore Small Changes With Big Effects, Justin Dunmyre, Nicholas Fortune, Tianna Bogart, Chris Rasmussen, Karen Keene

CODEE Journal

The environmental phenomenon of climate change is of critical importance to today's science and global communities. Differential equations give a powerful lens onto this phenomenon, and so we should commit to discussing the mathematics of this environmental issue in differential equations courses. Doing so highlights the power of linking differential equations to environmental and social justice causes, and also brings important science to the forefront in the mathematics classroom. In this paper, we provide an extended problem, appropriate for a first course in differential equations, that uses bifurcation analysis to study climate change. Specifically, through studying hysteresis, this problem highlights …