Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel

Publications

Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …

The Connection Between Local Sea Level Rise, Climate Change And Ocean Circulation, Tal Ezer, Larry P. Atkinson

CCPO Publications

In recent years, Norfolk has become a symbol for a city that is already battling the impact of sea level rise (SLR). Street flooding during high tides (Fig. 1, left) is much more common now than in the past, and storm surges (Fig. 1, right) are more severe and last longer. Therefore, as part of Old Dominion University’s Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative (CCSLRI), CCPO scientists focus on studies that enhance our understanding of the causes of local SLR and improve our ability to predict future SLR. This information can help policy makers, insurers, city planners and other …

Circulation, Vol. 18, No. 3, Center For Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Tal Ezer, Larry P. Atkinson

CCPO Circulation

Summer 2013 issue of CCPO Circulation featuring article "The Connection Between Local Sea Level Rise, Climate Change and Ocean Circulation" by Tal Ezer and Larry P. Atkinson

Old Dominion University Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Initiative, Summer 2013, Larry P. Atkinson (Editor), Hans-Peter Plag (Editor)

CCSLRI Newsletters

Summer 2013 Newsletter of the Old Dominion University Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative

Updating Maryland's Sea-Level Rise Projections, Donald F. Boesch, Larry P. Atkinson, William C. Boicourt, John D. Boon, Donald R. Cahoon, Robert A. Dalrymple, Tal Ezer, Benjamin P. Horton, Zoe P. Johnson, Robert E. Kopp, Ming Li, Richard H. Moss, Adam Parris, Christopher K. Sommerfield

CCPO Publications

With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, "The Free State" is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the …

Agriculture In A Water Scarce World, Allison Roberts, Amjad Assi, Bassel Daher, Men Li

Student Papers in Public Policy

According to the McKinsey report (2009), the world is facing a water scarcity challenge where agriculture is its predominant consumer. It accounts for approximately 3100 billion m³, or 71 percent of global water withdrawals today, and is expected to increase to 4500 billion m³ by 2030. This increase is due to a number of factors: growing population and the ever growing necessity to cater for its food needs, economic growth, the variability of precipitation trends and increase in global temperatures. In addition to the increase in water scarcity, the agricultural sector faces an enormous challenge of producing …

Slides: What Does Climate Change Mean For Cold Water Fisheries, Stan Bradshaw

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

1 page "Abstract" and 8 slides

Insights Into Spatial Sensitivities Of Ice Mass Response To Environmental Change From The Searise Ice Sheet Modeling Project I : Antarctica, Sophie Nowicki, Robert A. Bindschadler, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Ed Bueler, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Eric Larour, Anders Levermann, William Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Diandong Ren, Eric Rignot, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, Wei Li Wang

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response tovIce Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to …

Slides: Is There A Dust Bowl In Our Future?: Projections For The Eastern Rockies And Central Great Plains, Dennis Ojima

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Dennis Ojima, Senior Research Scientist, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University (NREL/CSU)

30 slides

Slides: Future Water Availability In The West: Will There Be Enough?, Michael Dettinger

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Michael Dettinger, USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA

30 slides

"with contributions from Julio Betancourt, Dan Cayan, & others"

Slides: A History Of Climate Variability And Change In The American West, Kelly T. Redmond

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Kelly T. Redmond, Regional Climatologist, Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), Desert Research Institute

65 slides

Insights Into Spatial Sensitivities Of Ice Mass Response To Environmental Change From The Searise Ice Sheet Modeling Project Ii : Greenland, Sophie Nowicki, Robert A. Bindschadler, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Ed Bueler, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Eric Larour, Anders Levermann, William Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen Price, Diandong Ren, Eric Rignot, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, Wei Li Wang

Computer Science Faculty Publications

The Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin-up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are …

Marine Invertebrates: Communities At Risk, Jennifer A. Mather

Ecological Impacts of Climate Change Collection

Our definition of the word ‘animal’ centers on vertebrates, yet 99% of the animals on the planet are invertebrates, about which we know little. In addition, although the Census of Marine Life (COML.org) has recently conducted an extensive audit of marine ecosystems, we still do not understand much about the animals of the seas. Surveys of the best-known ecosystems, in which invertebrate populations often play a key role, show that the invertebrate populations are affected by human impact. Coral animals are the foundation of coral reef systems, which are estimated to contain 30% of the species in the ocean. Physical …

A Path To A Renewable Energy System: A Financing And Regulatory Model, Edward Patrick Kelly

Masters Theses, 2010-2019

As the effects of climate change become more and more evident, the necessity of transitioning to a carbon-free economy and powering our energy and transportation systems from renewables energy sources is quite evident. This transition to a renewable- based energy system will be a massive undertaking, similar to the efforts put into WWII, where the country was united with unity of purpose. Taking on the vested interests of the fossil fuel industry and all their subsidiaries will take a political will that does not exist in this country at this time. Hermann Scheer describes what he calls a social movement; …

Acting To Address The Ocean-Related Impacts Of Climate Change On Human And National Security, With Recommendations For Priority Actions Drawn From The Discussions Of The Global Conference On Oceans, Climate And Security At The University Of Massachusetts Boston, Robbin Peach, Felix Dodds, Michael Strauss, Collaborative Institute For Oceans, Climate And Security, University Of Massachusetts Boston

Collaborative Institute for Oceans, Climate and Security Publications

In the course of the past calendar year the United States has been struck by a series of droughts, tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, wildfires, and floods whose size and path of resulting damage defy previously established patterns. The U.S. thus joins nations on every continent that have increasingly experienced extreme and extremely damaging weather events over the past two decades.

At the same time, the world’s oceans have been exhibiting a less-visible but equally dangerous sequence of temperature rise, acidification increase, fish kills, coastal erosion, salinity shifts, algae blooms, and steady decreases in commercially available fish and shellfish species.

Those impacts …

The Consciousness Of Water: Narrative Flows, Environmental Change, And The Voice Of Yemen, Tricia Nellessen

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Icebergs are melting in the Arctic. The Gulf of Mexico is warming and producing hurricanes such as Katrina. The delta of the southern United States is drying. And, Yemen will be the first country in modern history to experience a lack of accessible ground water, as soon as 2017 possibly. Yemen's situation has been tracked by scholars and governments since the 1960s. Despite this fact, cities have expanded in Yemen and the population has increased its use of water while little has been invested in desalination or infrastructure to offset growth. Climate change has affected humans for thousands of years; …

Exploring Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Beaver Ponds In Southern Rhode Island, Molly K. Welsh

Senior Honors Projects

Climate change is one of the largest environmental issues facing humanity today, having the potential to alter fresh water availability, agricultural yields, forest productivity, and global sea levels. As climate change is likely to increase the intensity of extreme weather events, the potential for massive human and financial consequences is of further concern. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change asserts that climate change is due to anthropogenic alterations of the atmosphere’s composition, with additional contributions from natural biochemical processes. In particular, the rapid increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere can trigger atmospheric warming as these …

Disclosing Climate Change Patterns Using An Adaptive Markov Chain Pattern Detection Method, Zhaoxia Wang, Gary Lee, Hoong Maeng Chan, Reuben Li, Xiuju Fu, Rick Goh, Pauline A. W. Poh Kim, Martin L. Hibberd, Hoong Chor Chin

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This paper proposes an adaptive Markov chain pattern detection (AMCPD) method for disclosing the climate change patterns of Singapore through meteorological data mining. Meteorological variables, including daily mean temperature, mean dew point temperature, mean visibility, mean wind speed, maximum sustained wind speed, maximum temperature and minimum temperature are simultaneously considered for identifying climate change patterns in this study. The results depict various weather patterns from 1962 to 2011 in Singapore, based on the records of the Changi Meteorological Station. Different scenarios with varied cluster thresholds are employed for testing the sensitivity of the proposed method. The robustness of the proposed …

Marine Phytoplankton Temperature Versus Growth Responses From Polar To Tropical Waters- Outcome Of A Scientific Community-Wide Study, Philip W. Boyd, Tatiana A. Rynearson, Evelyn A. Armstrong, Feixue Fu, Kendra Hayashi, Zhangxi Hu, David A. Hutchins, Elena Litchman, Margaret R. Mulholland, Uta Passow, Robert F. Stzepek, Kerry A. Whittaker, Elizabeth Yu, Mridul K. Thomas

OES Faculty Publications

“It takes a village to finish (marine) science these days”

Paraphrased from Curtis Huttenhower (the Human Microbiome project)

The rapidity and complexity of climate change and its potential effects on ocean biota are challenging how ocean scientists conduct research. One way in which we can begin to better tackle these challenges is to conduct community-wide scientific studies. This study provides physiological datasets fundamental to understanding functional responses of phytoplankton growth rates to temperature. While physiological experiments are not new, our experiments were conducted in many laboratories using agreed upon protocols and 25 strains of eukaryotic and prokaryotic phytoplankton …

Colorado River Cutthroat Trout Habitat Resistance And Resilience To Climate Change, Kate H. Olsen

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Government agencies and private organizations spend large amounts of public money attempting to return ecosystems to a more natural state, which have often been harmed or even destroyed as a result of modern development. Colorado River cutthroat trout, Oncorhyncus clarki pleuriticus, are a subspecies of cutthroat trout. Cutthroat trout live in the Rocky Mountains of the western United States. The population of this particular subspecies has been severely reduced by human actions, and currently only 12% of its historic populations still exist. To improve the condition of cutthroat trout, fisheries professionals and biologists are working to restore natural populations. …

The Living Labs: Nantucket Island, Anamarija Frankic, Robyn Hannigan, Sarah Oktay

Office of Community Partnerships Posters

The Living Labs are a practical response to growing environmental challenges, including habitat degradation, loss of biodiversity, and global climate change. Nantucket Living Labs develops and implements holistic solutions to environmental challenges right here and now. The School for the Environment (SFE) established this concept in Conjunction with the Nantucket Field Station, Nantucket Conservation Foundation and ReMain Nantucket, a nonprofit dedicated to supporting a year-round community in the town center.

Ice-Sheet Model Sensitivities To Environmental Forcing And Their Use In Projecting Future Sea Level (The Searise Project), Robert A. Bindschadler, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Anders Levermann, William H. Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Diandong Ren, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, Wei Li Wang

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more …

Rethinking Sustainability To Meet The Climate Change Challenge, Michael Burger, Elizabeth Burleson, Rebecca M. Bratspies, Robin Kundis Craig, Alexandra R. Harrington, David M. Driesen, Keith H. Hirokawa, Sarah Krakoff, Katrina Fischer Kuh, Stephen R. Miller, Jessica Owley, Patrick Parenteau, Melissa Powers, Shannon M. Roesler, Jona M. Roesler

Journal Articles

This article presents a preliminary effort to capture the dialogue at the Environmental Law Collaborative’s inaugural Workshop. Attendees engaged in the re-conceptualization of sustainability in the age of climate change, premised on evidence that climate change is forcing changes in the norms of political, social, economic, and technological standards. As climate change continues to dominate many fields of research, sustainability is at a critical moment that challenges its conceptual coherence. Sustainability has never been free from disputes over its meaning and has long struggled with the difficulties of simultaneously implementing the “triple-bottom line” components of environmental, economic, and social well-being. …

Extending A Geographic Lens Towards Climate Justice, Part 1: Climate Change Characterization And Impacts, Morey Burnham, Claudia Radel, Zhao Ma, Ann Laudati

Environment and Society Faculty Publications

There has been a recent increase of interest within the academic literature on the justice issues posed by climate change and the human responses to its present and forecasted effects. This literature is partially shaped by debates from environmental justice scholarship, but also has roots in various subfields of geography. In two parts (here and in a subsequent article), we review and synthesize the recent literature by asking what climate justice concerns have been identified within three related realms: 1) the characterization of climate change itself and the assignment of responsibility for that change; 2) the differential or uneven impacts …

Modeling Vulnerability Of Groundwater To Pollution Under Future Scenarios Of Climate Change And Biofuels-Related Land Use Change: A Case Study In North Dakota, Usa, Ruopu Li, James W. Merchant

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality.Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use condi- tions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions thatmay change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic condi- tions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with …

Preparing For The Rising Tide, Ellen Douglas, Paul Kirshen, Vivian Li, Chris Watson, Julie Wormser

Environmental, Earth, and Ocean Sciences Faculty Publication Series

On October 29, 2012, one of the largest Atlantic basin storms in recorded history hit the East Coast. Although Superstorm Sandy centered around New Jersey and New York when it made landfall, the massive storm system spanned 1,000 miles north to south, over three times the size of a typical hurricane.

Luckily for Boston, Sandy’s storm surge hit the city near low tide, causing relatively minor coastal flooding. Had the storm hit 5½ hours earlier, 6.6 percent of the city could have been flooded, with floodwaters reaching City Hall.

Events such as Superstorm Sandy highlight the growing relevance of climate …

Water, Climate, And Social Change In A Fragile Landscape, William L. Hargrove, David M. Borrok, Josiah Mc C.C. Heyman, Craig E. Tweedie, Carlos Cabrera Ferregut

Geosciences and Geological and Petroleum Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

We present here and in the companion papers an analysis of sustainability in the Middle Rio Grande region of the U.S.-Mexico border and propose an interdisciplinary research agenda focused on the coupled human and natural dimensions of water resources sustainability in the face of climate and social change in an international border region. Key threats to water sustainability in the Middle Rio Grande River region include: (1) increasing salinization of surface and ground water, (2) increasing water demand from a growing population in the El Paso/Ciudad Juarez area on top of an already high base demand from irrigated agriculture, (3) …

Orbitally Paced Shifts In The Particle Size Of Antarctic Continental Shelf Sediments In Response To Ice Dynamics During The Miocene Climatic Optimum, Sandra Passchier, Candice J. Falk, Fabio Florindo

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The AND-2A drill hole (ANDRILL [Antarctic Geological Drilling Program] Southern McMurdo Sound Project), ∼10 km from the East Antarctica coastline, records nearly 6 m.y. of sedimentation across the Miocene climatic optimum at a high-latitude site. Sedimentological studies of bedforms and particle size distributions indicate that the paleoenvironment was strongly affected by waves and currents, consistent with deposition in a glacially influenced neritic environment. We document abrupt shifts in mud percent within glacial-interglacial cycles ca. 17.8 Ma and between ca. 16.7 and 15.7 Ma that we attribute to the hydrodynamic effects of wave stirring tied to episodes of ice growth and …

Modeling The Production Of Multiple Ecosystem Services From Agricultural And Forest Landscapes In Rhode Island, Tingting Liu, Nathaniel H. Merrill, Arthur J. Gold, Dorothy Q. Kellogg, Emi Uchida

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Assessing Migration Of Ruby-Throated Hummingbirds (Archilochus Colubris) At Broad Spatial And Temporal Scales Evaluación De La Migración De Archilochus Colubris A Escalas Amplias De Tiempo Y Espacio, Jason Courter, Ron J. Johnson, William C. Bridges Jr., Kenneth Hubbard

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Phenological patterns in birds appear to be temperature-dependent in part, and global temperatures are undergoing change. Many studies of bird phenology are conducted at broad temporal but local spatial scales, making it difficult to assess how temperature affects bird migration across landscapes. Recently, networks of “citizen science” volunteers have emerged whose collective efforts may improve phenology studies as biases associated with such efforts are recognized and addressed. We compared mean Rubythroated Hummingbird (Archilochus colubris) first arrival dates from Journey North (2001-2010) with data from the North American Bird Phenology Program (1880-1969). Ruby-throated Hummingbirds arrived earlier in the more recent period …