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2015

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Articles 9541 - 9570 of 9578

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Physical Engagement As A Way To Increase Emotional Rapport In Interactions With Embodied Conversational Agents, Ivan Gris Sepulveda Jan 2015

Physical Engagement As A Way To Increase Emotional Rapport In Interactions With Embodied Conversational Agents, Ivan Gris Sepulveda

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

One of the major goals in research on embodied conversational agents (ECAs) is to increase the believability and perceived trustworthiness of agents. To improve the efficacy of the interaction between humans and ECAs, I focus on the development of rapport, which is a complex and extensive behavioral state of affinity, synchronicity, coordination and mutual understanding that is difficult to model, measure and interpret. I present our AGENT Framework and our ECA, Adriana, which is capable of speech recognition and gesture recognition over long periods of time. Our current system provides up to 60 minutes of human-ECA interaction in a jungle-survival …


Multi-Expert Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Joel Henderson Jan 2015

Multi-Expert Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Joel Henderson

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Expert analysis and decisions are highly valued assets in a wide variety of fields, from social services to grant funding committees. However, the use of experts can be prohibitive due to either lack of availability or cost. As such, it is desirable to be able to replicate such decisions. However, there are many obstacles that impede an accurate simulation of expert decisions. For example, despite looking at the same information, two experts may disagree on the decisions. In addition, a single expert may make inconsistent decisions across similar scenarios.

In this work, we focus on multi-criteria decision making and in …


High Temperature Helical Tubular Receiver For Concentrating Solar Power System, Nazmul Hossain Jan 2015

High Temperature Helical Tubular Receiver For Concentrating Solar Power System, Nazmul Hossain

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

In the field of conventional cleaner power generation technology, concentrating solar power systems have introduced remarkable opportunity. In a solar power tower, solar energy concentrated by the heliostats at a single point produces very high temperature. Falling solid particles or heat transfer fluid passing through that high temperature region absorbs heat to generate electricity. Increasing the residence time will result in more heat gain and increase efficiency. A novel design of solar receiver for both fluid and solid particle is approached in this paper which can increase residence time resulting in higher temperature gain in one cycle compared to conventional …


Wind Farm Optimization Using Evolutionary Algorithms, Carlos Marco Ituarte-Villarreal Jan 2015

Wind Farm Optimization Using Evolutionary Algorithms, Carlos Marco Ituarte-Villarreal

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

In recent years, the wind power industry has focused its efforts on solving the Wind Farm Layout Optimization (WFLO) problem. Wind resource assessment is a pivotal step in optimizing the wind-farm design and siting and, in determining whether a project is economically feasible or not. In the present work, three (3) different optimization methods are proposed for the solution of the WFLO: (i) A modified Viral System Algorithm applied to the optimization of the proper location of the components in a wind-farm to maximize the energy output given a stated wind environment of the site. The optimization problem is formulated …


Japanese Computational Lexicon: A Computational Dictionary Of Japanese Verb Forms, Mayumi Kobayashi Jan 2015

Japanese Computational Lexicon: A Computational Dictionary Of Japanese Verb Forms, Mayumi Kobayashi

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This paper presents two main topics: a linguistic analysis of Japanese morphological lexicon focused on verb conjugation and a computational analysis of Japanese verb conjugation in Prolog programming. Prolog is one of the computer programming languages and is used to solve a problem logically with a number of statements called "clauses," which are defining various relationships of the entities. With respect to the linguistic aspect, this paper discusses Japanese verb formation, its conjugation patterns, twelve basic forms of Japanese verbs, and a Japanese morphophonemic process called “音便 (onbin)” by investigating 304 regular verbs and 2 irregular verbs. Among the several …


Transition Metal Carbide (Tmc) Novel Materials For Novel Catalytic Applications, Svetlana Lagoykina Jan 2015

Transition Metal Carbide (Tmc) Novel Materials For Novel Catalytic Applications, Svetlana Lagoykina

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Transition metal carbides (TMC) constitute a diverse class of materials and traditionally have many technological applications. TMC became a subject of extensive research since 1973, when their platinum -like properties were discovered. They demonstrated high catalytical activity and selectivity in a variety of chemical reaction and have potential for some novel catalytic application.

This research is an effort to design new high effective, selective and stable bimetal or alkali promoted TMC catalyst. After extensive theoretical research a wide range of TMC, including bimetal and alkali promoted carbides, were synthesized by different methods. All solids were characterized by XRD and microscopy. …


On The Path To Multi-Electron Redox Chemistry With Bimetallic Systems, Nathalie Metta Jan 2015

On The Path To Multi-Electron Redox Chemistry With Bimetallic Systems, Nathalie Metta

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The following study is presented in two sections, in the first, a novel digold (II) complex with semi-bridging chlorides supported by two bulky formamidinates was synthesized for the purpose of studying late-transition metal multi-electron redox chemistry. Electrochemical analysis shows one non-reversible reduction. Although the electrochemistry of this complex is restricted, the compound shows interesting electronic properties. The crystal structure reveals a geometry distortion of the Au2ï?­-Cl2 core. The coupling of an unoccupied orbital and an occupied orbital through a vibrational mode, causes a distortion in the geometry of the molecule lowering the D2h symmetry to C2h. This is an example …


When Can The Primitive Element Be Written As A Sum Of Two Algebraic Elements Adjoined To The Field Of The Rational Numbers, Mohamad Moussa Jan 2015

When Can The Primitive Element Be Written As A Sum Of Two Algebraic Elements Adjoined To The Field Of The Rational Numbers, Mohamad Moussa

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Given a field F and elements \alpha and \beta not in F, then F(\alpha, \beta) is the smallest field containing \alpha,\beta, and F. A simple extension is a field extension which is generated by the adjunction of a single element. The Primitive Element Theorem says that if F is a field of characteristic 0, and \alpha and \beta are algebraic over F, then there is an element \gamma in F(\alpha ,\beta ) such that

F(\alpha ; \beta ) = F(\gamma). When can we say that \gamma=\alpha+\beta? We will introduce some situations where \gamma=\alpha+\beta is true and some when this is …


Latina/O High School Students' Standpoint On Environmental Justice In A Border Community: A Phenomenological Study, Cynthia Christina Ontiveros Jan 2015

Latina/O High School Students' Standpoint On Environmental Justice In A Border Community: A Phenomenological Study, Cynthia Christina Ontiveros

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This qualitative research is a transcendental phenomenology seeking to understand Latin@ high school students’ perceptions and standpoints as they participated lessons that addressed border environmental justice issues in an underrepresented, marginalized community. Seven students from Borderland High School, enrolled in a senior level course, Environmental Science, participated in the study which focused on their experiences in an environmental justice air quality thematic unit built around the complex issues surrounding a local refinery, American Smelting and Refining Company (ASARCO). The study analyzed the meaning students made and their standpoints regarding the impact of the factory and its one-hundred year history polluting …


Receiver Function Analysis To Study Crustal Structure Of The Northern Nepal And Tibetan Plateau, Mohan Pant Jan 2015

Receiver Function Analysis To Study Crustal Structure Of The Northern Nepal And Tibetan Plateau, Mohan Pant

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The teleseismic P-waveform receiver function analysis is a commonly used technique in earthquake seismology to study the crustal structure beneath a broadband seismic station. To understand the structure of the Northern Nepal and Tibetan plateau different studies have used the receiver function method to estimate the Moho depth and Vp/Vs ratio. The value suggested was ~ 30 km in the south and the ~ 75 km in the north. Other studies have used teleseismic body wave data to perform the travel time residuals to model the lithosphere structure. In our study, we analyzed data from 261 seismic stations to establish …


Ac-Susceptibility And Epr Investigations Of Superspin Dynamics In Magnetite Nanoparticles, Alex D. Price Jan 2015

Ac-Susceptibility And Epr Investigations Of Superspin Dynamics In Magnetite Nanoparticles, Alex D. Price

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

In this investigation we use two complementary techniques to distinguish between superparamagnetic blocking (SPB) and superspin-glass (SSG) freezing phenomena in magnetite nanoparticles. While these manifestations of the superspin dynamics are fundamentally different, they have similar "signatures", especially in dc-magnetization experiments. Even if ac-susceptibility measurements are employed, careful use of mathematical models to analyze the data are needed to uncover which type of phenomena (SPB or SSG freezing) occurs within the material. Yet, by utilizing electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) on a 10 nm Fe3O4 nano-powder as well as on a ferrofluid (based on the same nanoparticle ensemble) we found a very …


Studying Cellular And Molecular Interaction With Two-Photon Fluorescence Microscopy, Arifur Rahaman Jan 2015

Studying Cellular And Molecular Interaction With Two-Photon Fluorescence Microscopy, Arifur Rahaman

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Advances in microscopy and fluorescent probes provide new insight into studying cellular and molecular interactions. Two-photon fluorescence microscopy is one of the most important recent inventions in cellular and molecular study. This technology enables noninvasive study at cellular and molecular levels in three dimensions with submicrometer resolution. Two-photon excitation of fluorophores results from the simultaneous absorption of two photons. This excitation process has a number of unique advantages, such as reduced specimen photodamage and enhanced penetration depth. In this study, we used our two-photon microscope to observe predatorial behavior of fast moving bacterivorous marine organism Cafeteria roenbergensis and quantify Mycobacterium …


Microscopic And Spectroscopic Analysis Of Cadmium Telluride, Jessica Goretty Salazar Jan 2015

Microscopic And Spectroscopic Analysis Of Cadmium Telluride, Jessica Goretty Salazar

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Cadmium telluride (CdTe) remains one of the materials of interest in the fabrication of photovoltaic cells and infrared devices, mainly because of its suitable crystal structure as well as of its small, direct bandgap of 1.5 eV. Since development of such devices requires a high quality and low defect material, the goal of this study is to microscopically and spectroscopically examine not only crystallinity, but also the induced stress in the material due to the effect of substrate orientation. This information is valuable if optimization of sample growth conditions is envisioned. Prior to CdTe deposition by close-spaced sublimation (CSS), Si …


A Geophysical Study Of The Castle Mountain Fault System And Matanuska-Susitna Valley Near Anchorage, Alaska, Shane Michael Schinagel Jan 2015

A Geophysical Study Of The Castle Mountain Fault System And Matanuska-Susitna Valley Near Anchorage, Alaska, Shane Michael Schinagel

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The Castle Mountain Fault (CMF) is the closest (~50 km) active fault to Anchorage, Alaska. Located within the Matanuska and Susitna (Matsu) Valleys, the CMF shows repeated, unmistakable evidence for Holocene motion. Recent geologic studies estimate that this fault is capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 - 7.1. The Anchorage metropolitan area (which includes the Matsu Valley) contains most of Alaska's population as well as vital shipping and transportation facilities that serve much of inland Alaska. Expected magnitude >7 earthquakes pose seismic hazards to the expanding Anchorage area.

While several mapping and trenching studies have been conducted along the …


Heat Absorption Analysis By Falling Particles At High Temperatures For Concentrating Solar Power Systems, Arturo Sepulveda Fernandez Jan 2015

Heat Absorption Analysis By Falling Particles At High Temperatures For Concentrating Solar Power Systems, Arturo Sepulveda Fernandez

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

High temperature Heat Transfer Fluid (HTF) with Thermal Energy Storage (TES) for the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology can provide a large and relatively cheaper storage option, as opposed to limited and expensive electrical battery storage with PV technology, and hence, it has potential to maintain a constant production when no sunlight is available. Research of material like aluminum, silicon, graphite could be potential candidates to work as thermal energy storage. Currently, nitrate and chloride molten salts are widely used as the TES medium for a CSP plant. However, molten salt, especially chlorides, must be handled carefully at high temperature …


A Bayes Approach In Step-Stress Accelerated Life Testings, Hao Yang Teng Jan 2015

A Bayes Approach In Step-Stress Accelerated Life Testings, Hao Yang Teng

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

A Bayesian analysis for the Weibull proportional hazard (PH) model is presented. A comparison between the Weibull PH model and the Weibull cumulative exposure (CE) model is made graphically and mathematically. The PH model is as flexible as the CE model in fitting step-stress data and the mathematical form of the PH model enables researchers to do Bayesian inferencemuch easier than the CE model. In addition, the PH model has the desirable proportional hazard property. A convex tent prior is used for Bayesian analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for posterior inferences. In this study, we adopt two …


Stochastic Differential Equation Applied To High Frequency Data Arising In Geophysics And Other Disciplines, Osei Kofi Tweneboah Jan 2015

Stochastic Differential Equation Applied To High Frequency Data Arising In Geophysics And Other Disciplines, Osei Kofi Tweneboah

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Estimating future seismic hazards of a region constitutes an important study many scholars have shown a renewed interest in the past few decades. A good estimation of the seismic hazard in a region requires predicting the location and magnitude of future seismic events. As the knowledge of the geophysical mechanisms that drive seismic events have increased, so have the corresponding mathematical model representations.

This Thesis is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical data. We propose a stochastic differential equation arising on the superposition of independent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by a Gamma process.

Superposition of independent Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes offers …


Single And Multiple Objective Biomass-To-Biofuel Supply Chain Optimization Considering Environmental Impacts, Claudia Evangelina Valles Sosa Jan 2015

Single And Multiple Objective Biomass-To-Biofuel Supply Chain Optimization Considering Environmental Impacts, Claudia Evangelina Valles Sosa

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Bioenergy has become an important alternative source of energy to alleviate the reliance on petroleum energy. Bioenergy offers diminishing climate change by reducing Green House Gas Emissions, as well as providing energy security and enhancing rural development. The Energy Independence and Security Act mandate the use of 21 billion gallons of advanced biofuels including 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels by the year 2022. It is clear that Biomass can make a substantial contribution to supply future energy demand in a sustainable way. However, the supply of sustainable energy is one of the main challenges that mankind will face over …


Pre-Tuned Ridge Regression And Its Extension To Generalized Linear Models, Yaa Tawiah Wonkye Jan 2015

Pre-Tuned Ridge Regression And Its Extension To Generalized Linear Models, Yaa Tawiah Wonkye

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Ridge regression is regularization or shrinkage method and a common approach in dealing with multicollinearity in conventional regression analysis. Ridge regression is widely used by statistical analyst since it is one of the best compared to other regularization methods. Also, the introduction of high dimension and ultra-high dimensional data has become an issue of concern and ridge regression is one way of dealing with such data. One of the key issues associated with ridge regression is the determination of the tuning or ridge parameter. The common practice is to fit ridge regression for a different number of values of tuning …


Monitoring And Understanding Decadal Scale Changes In Hydrology, Productivity And Carbon Balance In Arctic Tundra Ponds, Christian Gerardo Andresen Jan 2015

Monitoring And Understanding Decadal Scale Changes In Hydrology, Productivity And Carbon Balance In Arctic Tundra Ponds, Christian Gerardo Andresen

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The Arctic is known for containing large stocks of soil organic carbon, which exists frozen in permafrost in a greenhouse inert state. With predicted future warming in these high northern latitudes, the mobilization of stored soil organic carbon and release to the atmosphere may increase and induce further positive climatic feedbacks. Previous studies have shown that Arctic wetlands and ponds cover a large percentage of the Arctic Coastal Plain and contribute large amounts of carbon to the atmosphere; however, it remains largely unknown how these systems are responding to a warming climate and how this change will impact regional carbon …


Effects Of Gravity On The Acceleration And Pair Statistics Of Inertial Particles In Homogeneous Isotropic Turbulence, H. Parishani, O. Ayala, B. Rosa, L.-P. Wang, W. W. Grabowski Jan 2015

Effects Of Gravity On The Acceleration And Pair Statistics Of Inertial Particles In Homogeneous Isotropic Turbulence, H. Parishani, O. Ayala, B. Rosa, L.-P. Wang, W. W. Grabowski

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

Within the context of heavy particles suspended in a turbulent airflow, we study the effects of gravity on acceleration statistics and radial relative velocity (RRV) of inertial particles. The turbulent flow is simulated by direct numerical simulation (DNS) on a 2563 grid and the dynamics of O(106) inertial particles by the point-particle approach. For particles/droplets with radius from 10 to 60 µm, we found that the gravity plays an important role in particle acceleration statistics: (a) a peak value of particle acceleration variance appears in both the horizontal and vertical directions at a particle Stokes number …


Effects Of Forcing Time Scale On The Simulated Turbulent Flows And Turbulent Collision Statistics Of Inertial Particles, B. Rosa, H. Parishani, O. Ayala, L.-P. Wang Jan 2015

Effects Of Forcing Time Scale On The Simulated Turbulent Flows And Turbulent Collision Statistics Of Inertial Particles, B. Rosa, H. Parishani, O. Ayala, L.-P. Wang

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

In this paper, we study systematically the effects of forcing time scale in the large-scale stochastic forcing scheme of Eswaran and Pope ["An examination of forcing in direct numerical simulations of turbulence," Comput. Fluids 16, 257 (1988)] on the simulated flow structures and statistics of forced turbulence. Using direct numerical simulations, we find that the forcing time scale affects the flow dissipation rate and flow Reynolds number. Other flow statistics can be predicted using the altered flow dissipation rate and flow Reynolds number, except when the forcing time scale is made unrealistically large to yield a Taylor microscale flow Reynolds …


Self-Reported Experiences Of Climate Change In Nigeria: The Role Of Personal And Socio-Environmental, Idowu Ajibade, Frederick Ato Armah, Vincent Kuuire, Isaac Luginaah, Gordon Mcbean Jan 2015

Self-Reported Experiences Of Climate Change In Nigeria: The Role Of Personal And Socio-Environmental, Idowu Ajibade, Frederick Ato Armah, Vincent Kuuire, Isaac Luginaah, Gordon Mcbean

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this study, we examined the individual and socio-environmental factors that mediate differential self-reported experiences of climate change in coastal communities in Lagos, Nigeria. Binary complementary log-log multivariate regression was used to model residents’ experiences of changing rainfall patterns, ocean surges, and flood events. An analysis of both compositional and contextual factors showed that there were urban communities where vulnerability to flooding tends to be clustered, and that this was not fully explained by the characteristics of the people of whom the community was composed. This study, thus, underscores the importance and complex nature of the interaction between personal and …


Scheduling N Burgers For A K-Burger Grill: Chromatic Numbers With Restrictions, Peter Johnson, Xiaoya Zha Jan 2015

Scheduling N Burgers For A K-Burger Grill: Chromatic Numbers With Restrictions, Peter Johnson, Xiaoya Zha

Theory & Applications of Graphs

The chromatic number has a well-known interpretation in the area of scheduling. If the vertices of a finite, simple graph are committees, and adjacency of two committees indicates that they must never be in session simultaneously, then the chromatic number of the graph is the smallest number of hours during which the committees/vertices of the graph may all have properly scheduled meetings of one continuous hour each. Slivnik [3] showed that the fractional chromatic number can be similarly characterized. In that characterization, the meetings are allowed to be broken into a finite number of disjoint intervals. Here we consider chromatic …


Path-Tables Of Trees: A Survey And Some New Results, Kevin Asciak Jan 2015

Path-Tables Of Trees: A Survey And Some New Results, Kevin Asciak

Theory & Applications of Graphs

The (vertex) path-table of a tree Τ contains quantitative information about the paths in Τ. The entry (i,j) of this table gives the number of paths of length j passing through vertex vi. The path-table is a slight variation of the notion of path layer matrix. In this survey we review some work done on the vertex path-table of a tree and also introduce the edge path-table. We show that in general, any type of path-table of a tree Τ does not determine Τ uniquely. We shall show that in trees, the number of paths passing through …


Comparison Between The Asset Ez4 Nco And Impinger Sampling Devices For Aerosol Sampling Of 4,4′-Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate In Spray Foam Application, Silvia Puscasu, Simon Aubin, Yves Cloutier, Philippe Sarazin, Huu Van Tra, Sébastien Gagné Jan 2015

Comparison Between The Asset Ez4 Nco And Impinger Sampling Devices For Aerosol Sampling Of 4,4′-Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate In Spray Foam Application, Silvia Puscasu, Simon Aubin, Yves Cloutier, Philippe Sarazin, Huu Van Tra, Sébastien Gagné

Études primaires

4,4′-methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) aerosol exposure evaluation in spray foam insulation application is known to be a challenge. Current available techniques are either not user-friendly or are inaccurate or are not validated for this application. A new sampler has recently been developed to address the user-friendliness issues with other samplers: the ASSET EZ4-NCO, but the use of this sampler in spray foam insulation applications has not been demonstrated or validated. Because of this, the current work was undertaken to provide a comparison of the ASSET sampler with an impinger method, considered to be the best available method in the context …


Determination Of Triglycidyl Isocyanurate From Air Samples By Ultra-Performance Liquid Chromatography Coupled With Coordination Ion Spray Mass Spectrometry, Sébastien Gagné, Marielle Carrier, Simon Aubin Jan 2015

Determination Of Triglycidyl Isocyanurate From Air Samples By Ultra-Performance Liquid Chromatography Coupled With Coordination Ion Spray Mass Spectrometry, Sébastien Gagné, Marielle Carrier, Simon Aubin

Études primaires

Rationale

Ultra-performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) coupled with coordination ion spray tandem mass spectrometry was used for the analysis of air samples containing triglycidyl isocyanurate. The method is not affected by any chromatographic interference and the filter extract is compatible with the UPLC system, as opposed to approaches using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with ultraviolet detection and gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry.

Methods

Accu-cap™ filters that had sampled triglycidyl isocyanurate were extracted using a mixture of acetonitrile/acetone (95/5) diluted with 3 volumes of water and were then analyzed. The mass spectrometry method uses sodium as the alkali adduct complexing …


Multi-Surface Simplex Spine Segmentation For Spine Surgery Simulation And Planning, Rabia Haq Jan 2015

Multi-Surface Simplex Spine Segmentation For Spine Surgery Simulation And Planning, Rabia Haq

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This research proposes to develop a knowledge-based multi-surface simplex deformable model for segmentation of healthy as well as pathological lumbar spine data. It aims to provide a more accurate and robust segmentation scheme for identification of intervertebral disc pathologies to assist with spine surgery planning. A robust technique that combines multi-surface and shape statistics-aware variants of the deformable simplex model is presented. Statistical shape variation within the dataset has been captured by application of principal component analysis and incorporated during the segmentation process to refine results. In the case where shape statistics hinder detection of the pathological region, user-assistance is …


Introduction Effort, Climate Matching And Species Traits As Predictors Of Global Establishment Success In Non-Native Reptiles, Peter J. Mahoney, Karen H. Beard, Andrew M. Durso, Aimee G. Tallian, Arin Lexine Long, Ryan J. Kindermann, Nicole E. Nolan, Daniel Kinka, Harrison E. Mohn Jan 2015

Introduction Effort, Climate Matching And Species Traits As Predictors Of Global Establishment Success In Non-Native Reptiles, Peter J. Mahoney, Karen H. Beard, Andrew M. Durso, Aimee G. Tallian, Arin Lexine Long, Ryan J. Kindermann, Nicole E. Nolan, Daniel Kinka, Harrison E. Mohn

Biology Faculty Publications

Non-native reptiles are often detrimental to native communities and ecosystems and can be extremely difficult to manage once established. Thus, there is considerable interest in predicting the likelihood of establishment of nonnative reptiles. We assessed three hypotheses describing possible factors contributing to the successful establishment of introduced reptiles in an effort to better identify potential invaders.


Taming The Hurricane Of Acquisition Cost Growth – Or At Least Predicting It, Allen J. Deneve, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Christine M. Schubert Kabban Jan 2015

Taming The Hurricane Of Acquisition Cost Growth – Or At Least Predicting It, Allen J. Deneve, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Christine M. Schubert Kabban

Faculty Publications

Cost growth is a persistent adversary to efficient budgeting in the Department of Defense. Despite myriad studies to uncover causes of this cost growth, few of the proposed remedies have made a meaningful impact. A key reason may be that DoD cost estimates are formulated using the highly unrealistic assumption that a program’s current baseline characteristics will not change in the future. Using a weather forecasting analogy, the authors demonstrate how a statistical approach may be used to account for these inevitable baseline changes and identify related cost growth trends. These trends are then used to reduce the error in …