Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Predicting Magnetospheric Dynamics With A Coupled Sun‐To‐Earth Model: Challenges And First Results, V. G. Merkin, M. J. Owens, Harlan E. Spence, W. J. Hughes, J. M. Quinn

Physics & Astronomy

[1] Results from the first Sun-to-Earth coupled numerical model developed at the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling are presented. The model simulates physical processes occurring in space spanning from the corona of the Sun to the Earth's ionosphere, and it represents the first step toward creating a physics-based numerical tool for predicting space weather conditions in the near-Earth environment. Two 6- to 7-d intervals, representing different heliospheric conditions in terms of the three-dimensional configuration of the heliospheric current sheet, are chosen for simulations. These conditions lead to drastically different responses of the simulated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, emphasizing, on the one …

Gis Analysis Of Lightning Strikes Within A Tornadic Environment, Richard Snow, Mary Snow, Nicole Kufa

Publications

Recent research suggests that a maximum rate of lightning strikes occurs at least 15 to 20 minutes prior to tornado formation within a supercell storm. These maxima are associated with strengthening updrafts as they appear in radar measurements. An increase in lightning rates correlates with an increase of shear in the lower part of the storm. In combination with a strong updraft or downdraft, this shear can provide the ingredients for rotation and possibly a tornado. Polarity reversal of lightning around the time of tornado touchdown also has been examined. Thus, increasing lightning flash rates and reversal of lightning strike …

A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams

Publications and Research

Forecasters often encounter situations in which the local pattern of a time series is not expected to persist over the forecasting horizon. Since exponential smoothing models emphasize recent behavior, their forecasts may not be appropriate over longer horizons. In this paper, we develop a new model in which the local trend line projected by exponential smoothing converges asymptotically to an assumed future long-run trend line, which might be an extension of a historical long-run trend line. The rapidity of convergence is governed by a parameter. A familiar example is an economic series exhibiting persistent long-run trend with cyclic variation. This …

Crop Updates 2007 - Farming Systems, David Jeffries, A. Loi, B. J. Nutt, C. K. Revell, Yvette Oliver, Michael Robertson, Bill Bowden, Kit Leake, Ashley Bonser, Ian Maling, Bindi Isbister, Garren Knell, Alison Slade, David Stephens, Michael Meuleners, David Beard, Nicolyn Short, Rob Grima, Ingrid Richardson, Ruhi Ferdowsian, Geoff Bee, David Evans, Bob Gilkes, Senthold Asseng, Jim Dixon, Felicity Byrne, Mike Ewing, Dennis Van Gool, Louise Barton, Ralf Kiese, David Gatter, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Renee Buck, Christoph Hinz, Daniel Murphy, Cameron Weeks, Meredith Fairbanks, John Peirce, Brad Rayner, Sandy White, Paul Damon, Qifa Ma, Zed Rengel, Ed Barrett-Lennard, Meir Altman, Tracey M. Gianatti, Lindsay Bell, Ben Webb, Caroline Peek, Paul Sanford, Paul Blackwell, Glen Riethmuller, Darshan Sharma, Mike Collins, Frank D'Emden, David Hall, G. P. Manango, D. L. Steverson, Vanessa Stewart, Julie Roche, Peter Rutherford, Imma Farré, Ian Foster, Stephen Charles, Frances Hoyle, N. Milton, M. Osman, L. K. Abbott, W. R. Cookson, S. Darmawanto, Rob Sands, David Mccarthy, Paul Carmody, J. Russell, J. Eyres, G. Fosbery, A. Roe, Phil Nichols, Andrew Bathgate, Anne Wilkins

Crop Updates

This session covers forty papers from different authors:

1. Quality Assurance and industry stewardship, David Jeffries, Better Farm IQ Manager, Cooperative Bulk Handling

2. Sothis: Trifolium dasyurum (Eastern Star clover), A. Loi, B.J. Nutt and C.K. Revell, Department of Agriculture and Food

3. Poor performing patches of the paddock – to ameliorate or live with low yield? Yvette Oliver¹, Michael Robertson¹, Bill Bowden², Kit Leake³and Ashley Bonser³, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems¹, Department of Food and Agriculture², Kellerberrin Farmer³

4. What evidence is there that …

Forecasting Consumer Adoption Of Technological Innovation: Choosing The Appropriate Diffusion Models For New Products And Services Before Launch, Roger Calantone, Lance Gentry

Business and Information Technology Faculty Research & Creative Works

There are many good articles on various forecasting models. There is consensus that no single diffusion model is best for every situation. Experts in the field have asked for studies to provide empirical-based guidelines for recommending when various models should be used. This research investigates multiple diffusion models and provides recommendations for which diffusion models are appropriate for radical and really new products and services before the launch of the innovation.

Forecasting With Panel Data, Badi H. Baltagi

Center for Policy Research

This paper gives a brief survey of forecasting with panel data. Starting with a simple error component regression model and surveying best linear unbiased prediction under various assumptions of the disturbance term. This includes various ARMA models as well as spatial autoregressive models. The paper also surveys how these forecasts have been used in panel data applications, running horse races between heterogeneous and homogeneous panel data models using out of sample forecasts.