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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Forecasting Razorback Baseball Game Outcomes, Austin Raabe
Forecasting Razorback Baseball Game Outcomes, Austin Raabe
Information Systems Undergraduate Honors Theses
Despite the disappointing end to the 2021 Arkansas Razorback baseball year, the team’s success provided hog fans something to look forward to next season. While they will be without the 2021 Golden Spikes Award winner, Kevin Kopps, and four All-SEC team selections, the 2022 roster has promising new and returning talent. With fifty percent of the players who played significant time last year coming back (minimum ten hits or ten innings pitched), the arrival of several impact transfers from major conferences, and a recruiting class ranked in the top five according to Perfect Game, there is reason to believe that …
Understanding And Improving The System: The Effects Of Weighting On The Accuracy Of Political Polling In Arkansas, Beck Williams
Understanding And Improving The System: The Effects Of Weighting On The Accuracy Of Political Polling In Arkansas, Beck Williams
Political Science Undergraduate Honors Theses
In an effort to increase the accuracy of statewide political polling in Arkansas, we explore the statistical strategy of weighting with a focus on one yearly opinion poll: The Arkansas Poll. We conduct over 70 weighting experiments on the 2016 and 2020 Arkansas Polls using a variety of variables and opinion questions. From these experiments, we find that while some weighted variables tend to create larger changes, weighting typically results in a single-digit percentage change that does not substantially shift or “flip” the majorities. Due to a greater rate of change through weighting in the 2020 Poll compared to the …
Spatio-Temporal Analysis Of Tree Ring Chronology And Precipitation, Ruizhe Yin
Spatio-Temporal Analysis Of Tree Ring Chronology And Precipitation, Ruizhe Yin
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
Tree ring chronology data is known to reflect regional climate due to the strong impact of rainfall and temperature. Therefore, tree ring data can be used to reconstruct historical climate in order to understand how climate changed in the past and make prediction about the future behavior of the climate. For simplicity, this research only considers the influence of precipitation on tree ring growth within the New England area. A total of 94 measurement sites are used to record tree ring width over 881 years and corresponding precipitation data are given at some locations for 121 years. We developed a …
Effect Of Cross-Validation On The Output Of Multiple Testing Procedures, Josh Dallas Price
Effect Of Cross-Validation On The Output Of Multiple Testing Procedures, Josh Dallas Price
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
High dimensional data with sparsity is routinely observed in many scientific disciplines. Filtering out the signals embedded in noise is a canonical problem in such situations requiring multiple testing. The Benjamini--Hochberg procedure using False Discovery Rate control is the gold standard in large scale multiple testing. In Majumder et al. (2009) an internally cross-validated form of the procedure is used to avoid a costly replicate study and the complications that arise from population selection in such studies (i.e. extraneous variables). I implement this procedure and run extensive simulation studies under increasing levels of dependence among parameters and different data generating …
Advanced Statistics In Arkansas Sports Reporting, Andrew Lee Epperson
Advanced Statistics In Arkansas Sports Reporting, Andrew Lee Epperson
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
This study seeks to analyze how Arkansas’ sports journalists are adapting to the recent surge in available advanced statistics that are being used by certain national news organizations. Using in-depth qualitative research that includes in-depth interviews with a number of individuals in the print, broadcast, and athletics side of sports coverage, we discover how journalists and coaches use these next-generation analytics, what they fundamentally mean for the evolution of each respective path, and why so few Arkansas reporters and writers use them at the time of this paper’s defense. We see how budgets and deadlines restrict the use of these …
Bayesian Model For Detection Of Outliers In Linear Regression With Application To Longitudinal Data, Zahraa Al-Sharea
Bayesian Model For Detection Of Outliers In Linear Regression With Application To Longitudinal Data, Zahraa Al-Sharea
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
Outlier detection is one of the most important challenges with many present-day applications. Outliers can occur due to uncertainty in data generating mechanisms or due to an error in data recording/processing. Outliers can drastically change the study's results and make predictions less reliable. Detecting outliers in longitudinal studies is quite challenging because this kind of study is working with observations that change over time. Therefore, the same subject can produce an outlier at one point in time produce regular observations at all other time points. A Bayesian hierarchical modeling assigns parameters that can quantify whether each observation is an outlier …