Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Treading Water: Tools To Help Us Coastal Communities Plan For Sea Level Rise Impacts, E A. Smith, W Sweet, Molly Mitchell, R Domingues, C P. Weaver, M Baringer, G Goni, J Haines, Jon Derek Loftis, John D. Boon, David L. Malmquist

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As communities grapple with rising seas and more frequent flooding events, they need improved projections of future rising and flooding over multiple time horizons, to assist in a multitude of planning efforts. There are currently a few different tools available that communities can use to plan, including the Sea Level Report Card and products generated by a United States. Federal interagency task force on sea level rise. These tools are a start, but it is recognized that they are not necessarily enough at present to provide communities with the type of information needed to support decisions that range from seasonal …

Citizen-Science For The Future: Advisory Case Studies From Around The Globe, C Simoniello, J Jencks, Fm Lauro, Jon Derek Loftis, K Deja, David R. Forrest, Et At

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The democratization of ocean observation has the potential to add millions of observations every day. Though not a solution for all ocean monitoring needs, citizen scientists offer compelling examples showcasing their ability to augment and enhance traditional research and monitoring. Information they are providing is increasing the spatial and temporal frequency and duration of sampling, reducing time and labor costs for academic and government monitoring programs, providing hands-on STEM learning related to real-world issues and increasing public awareness and support for the scientific process. Examples provided here demonstrate the wide range of people who are already dramatically reducing gaps in …

The Future Of Coastal And Estuarine Modeling: Findings From A Workshop, Oliver B. Fringer, Clint N. Dawson, Ruoying He, David K. Ralston, Yinglong J. Zhang

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This paper summarizes the findings of a workshop convened in the United States in 2018 to discuss methods in coastal and estuarine modeling and to propose key areas of research and development needed to improve their accuracy and reliability. The focus of this paper is on physical processes, and we provide an overview of the current state-of-the-art based on presentations and discussions at the meeting, which revolved around the four primary themes of parameterizations, numerical methods, in-situ and remote-sensing measurements,and high-performance computing. A primary outcome of the workshop was agreement on the need to reduce subjectivity and improve reproducibility in …

Embracing Dynamic Design For Climate-Resilient Living Shorelines, Molly Mitchell, Donna M. Bilkovic

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As natural marshes are lost to erosion, sea level rise, and human activity, small created marshes, (sometimes with ancillary stabilization structures, and frequently called living shorelines) have gained interest as a replacement habitat; providing both shoreline stabilization and restoration of important ecological functions. These living shorelines enhance ecological function while reducing erosion through the use of marsh plants (Table 1). In all but the lowest energy settings, oyster reefs, low rock structures, or other stabilizing material are frequently used to enhance marsh establishment. Due to their ability to stabilize the shoreline with minimal impact to the ecology, living shorelines are …

Shorescape-Level Factors Drive Distribution And Condition Of A Salt Marsh Facilitator (Geukensia Demissa), Robert E. Isdell, Donna M. Bilkovic, Carl Hershner

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Ribbed mussels (Geukensia demissa) are a highly abundant bivalve filter feeder throughout the salt marshes of the U.S. Atlantic Coast. These mussels form a mutualistic relationship with smooth cordgrass Spartina alterniflora wherein the grass provides habitat and shade to the mussels, and the mussels stabilize the sediment and fertilize the grass. Salt marshes are, however, rapidly changing and eroding as humans modify the coast, and the rate of sea level rise is accelerating. In order to understand how ribbed mussels may respond to their changing habitat, we collected mussel density and distribution data from 30 marshes covering the range of …

A 3d Unstructured-Grid Model For Chesapeake Bay: Importance Of Bathymetry, Fei Ye, Yinglong J. Zhang, Harry V. Wang, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Isaac D. Irby, Eli Alteljevich, Arnaldo Valle-Levinson, Zhengui Wang, Hai Huang, Jian Shen, Jiabi Du

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We extend the 3D unstructured-grid model previously developed for the Upper Chesapeake Bay to cover the entire Bay and its adjacent shelf, and assess its skill in simulating saltwater intrusion and the coastal plume. Recently developed techniques, including a flexible vertical grid system and a 2nd-order, monotone and implicit transport solver are critical in successfully capturing the baroclinic responses. Most importantly, good accuracy is achieved through an accurate representation of the underlying bathymetry, without any smoothing. The model in general exhibits a good skill for all hydrodynamic variables: the averaged root-mean-square errors (RMSE‟s) in the Bay are 9 cm for …

Tidal Response To Sea-Level Rise In Different Types Of Estuaries: The Importance Of Length, Bathymetry, And Geometry, Jb Du, Jian Shen, Yinglong J. Zhang, Fei Ye, Z Liu, Zg Wang, Yp Wang, X Yu, M Sisson, Harry V. Wang

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Tidal response to sea-level rise (SLR) varies in different coastal systems. To provide a generic pattern of tidal response to SLR, a systematic investigation was conducted using numerical techniques applied to idealized and realistic estuaries, with model results cross-checked by analytical solutions. Our results reveal that the response of tidal range to SLR is nonlinear, spatially heterogeneous, and highly affected by the length and bathymetry of an estuary and weakly affected by the estuary convergence with an exception of strong convergence. Contrary to the common assumption that SLR leads to a weakened bottom friction, resulting in increased tidal amplitude, we …

Integrated Ocean, Earth, And Atmospheric Observations For Resilience Planning In Hampton Roads, Virginia, Jon Derek Loftis, Molly Mitchell, Larry Atkinson, Ben Hamlington, Thomas R. Allen, David R. Forrest, Et Al

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Building flood resilience in coastal communities requires a precise understanding of the temporal and spatial scales of inundation and the ability to detect and predict changes in flooding. In Hampton Roads, the Intergovernmental Pilot Project's Scientific Advisory Committee recommended an integrated network of ocean, earth, and atmospheric data collection from both private and public sector organizations that engage in active scientific monitoring and observing. Since its establishment, the network has grown to include monitoring of water levels, land subsidence, wave measurements, current measurements, and atmospheric conditions. High-resolution land elevation and land cover data sets have also been developed. These products …

Stormsense: A New Integrated Network Of Iot Water Level Sensors In The Smart Cities Of Hampton Roads, Va, Jon Derek Loftis, David R. Forrest, Sridhar Katragadda, Kyle Spencer, Tammie Organski, Cuong Nguyen, Sokwoo Rhee

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Propagation of cost-effective water level sensors powered through the Internet of Things (IoT) has expanded the available offerings of ingestible data streams at the disposal of modern smart cities. StormSense is an IoT-enabled inundation forecasting research initiative and an active participant in the Global City Teams Challenge, seeking to enhance flood preparedness in the smart cities of Hampton Roads, VA, for flooding resulting from storm surge, rain, and tides. In this study, we present the results of the new StormSense water level sensors to help establish the “regional resilience monitoring network” noted as a key recommendation from the Intergovernmental Pilot …

Shoreline Hardening Affects Nekton Biomass, Size Structure,And Taxonomic Diversity In Nearshore Waters, With Responses Mediated By Functional Species Groups, Ms Kornis, Donna Marie Bilkovic, La Davias, S Giordano, Dl Brietburg

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Coastal shoreline hardening is intensifying due to human population growth and sea level rise. Prior studies have emphasized shoreline-hardening effects on faunal abundance and diversity; few have examined effects on faunal biomass and size structure or described effects specific to different functional groups. We evaluated the biomass and size structure of mobile fish and crustacean assemblages within two nearshore zones (waters extending 3 and 16 m from shore) adjacent to natural (native wetland; beach) and hardened (bulkhead; riprap) shorelines. Within 3 m from shore, the total fish/crustacean biomass was greatest at hardened shorelines, driven by greater water depth that facilitated …

Marsh Persistence Under Sea-Level Rise Is Controlled By Multiple, Geologically Variable Stressors, Molly Mitchell, Julie Herman, Donna M. Bilkovic, Carl Hershner

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Introduction: Marshes contribute to habitat and water quality in estuaries and coastal bays. Their importance to continued ecosystem functioning has led to concerns about their persistence.

Outcomes: Concurrent with sea-level rise, marshes are eroding and appear to be disappearing through ponding in their interior; in addition, in many places, they are being replaced with shoreline stabilization structures. We examined the changes in marsh extent over the past 40 years within a subestuary of Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the United States, to better understand the effects of sea-level rise and human pressure on marsh coverage.

The Storm Surge And Sub-Grid Inundation Modeling In New York City During Hurricane Sandy, Harry V. Wang, Jon Derek Loftis, Zhou Liu, David R. Forrest, Yinglong J. Zhang

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Hurricane Sandy inflicted heavy damage in New York City and the New Jersey coast as the second costliest storm in history. A large-scale, unstructured grid storm tide model, Semi-implicit Eulerian Lagrangian Finite Element (SELFE), was used to hindcast water level variation during Hurricane Sandy in the mid-Atlantic portion of the U.S. East Coast. The model was forced by eight tidal constituents at the model’s open boundary, 1500 km away from the coast, and the wind and pressure fields from atmospheric model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) provided by Weatherflow Inc. The comparisons of the modeled storm tide with the NOAA …

Simulated Tsunami Inundation For A Range Of Cascadia Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios At Bandon, Oregon, Usa, Rc Witter, Yinglong J. Zhang, Kl Wang, Gr Priest, C Goldfinger

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Characterizations of tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone hinge on uncertainties in megathrust rupture models used for simulating tsunami inundation. To explore these uncertainties, we constructed 15 megathrust earthquake scenarios using rupture models that supply the initial conditions for tsunami simulations at Bandon, Oregon. Tsunami inundation varies with the amount and distribution of fault slip assigned to rupture models, including models where slip is partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried fault. Constraints on fault slip come from onshore and offshore paleoseismological evidence. We rank …

Potential Climate-Change Impacts On The Chesapeake Bay, Raymond G. Najjar, Christopher R. Pyke, Mary Beth Adams, Denise Breitburg, Carl Hershner, Et Al

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We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO2 emissions indicate that by the end of the 21st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO2 concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6m, and 2–6C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associatedwith changes in annual streamflow, though it …