Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Assessment Of Observed Increases In Extreme Warm Exceedances In Locations With Short Warm Side Tails, Jacob S. Hunter, Paul C. Loikith, J. David Neelin

Student Research Symposium

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian temperature distribution tails have been shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate using reanalysis. Under such conditions, future changes in extremes due to global warming may manifest in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were closer to Gaussian. For instance, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in exceedances than if the distribution were Gaussian. This carries meaningful societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, …