Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Assessment Of Tidal Range Changes In The North Sea From 1958 To 2014, Leon Jänicke, Andra Ebener, Sönke Dangendorf, Arne Arns, Michael Schindelegger, Sebastian Niehüser, Ivan D. Haigh, Philip Woodworth, Jürgen Jensen

CCPO Publications

We document an exceptional large-spatial scale case of changes in tidal range in the North Sea, featuring pronounced trends between -2.3 mm/yr at tide gauges in the United Kingdom and up to 7 mm/yr in the German Bight between 1958 and 2014. These changes are spatially heterogeneous and driven by a superposition of local and large-scale processes within the basin. We use principal component analysis to separate large-scale signals appearing coherently over multiple stations from rather localized changes. We identify two leading principal components (PCs) that explain about 69% of tidal range changes in the entire North Sea including the …

Bonnet Carré Spillway Freshwater Transport And Corresponding Biochemical Properties In The Mississippi Bight, Sabrina M. Parra, Virginie Sanial, Adam D. Boyette, M. Kemal Cambazoglu, Inia M. Soto, Adam T. Greer, Luciano M. Chiaverano, Angie Hoover, Michael S. Dinniman

CCPO Publications

Large freshwater pulses to coastal ecosystems change local hydrologic regimes and alter biogeochemical processes. The Mississippi Bight coastal ecosystem, located in the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf, is influenced by extensive freshwater inputs: the Mississippi River (MSR) and several smaller rivers to the east. Under river flood conditions, MSR waters flow through the Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) to relieve pressure on levees in New Orleans, Louisiana. In 2015, mild wintertime temperatures and heavy rainfall throughout the MSR watershed led to extreme flooding and prompted an unusually early BCS opening on January 10, 2016 for 23 days. This study examines the …

The 10th International Workshop On Modeling The Ocean (Iwmo 2018) In Santos, Brazil, June 25-28, 2018, Tal Ezer, Ricardo De Camargo, Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Fanghua Xu, Huijie Xue

CCPO Publications

The 10th International Workshop on Modeling the Ocean (IWMO 2018) was hosted by the University of Sao Paulo and held on June 25–28, 2018, at the beautiful coastal city of Santos, Brazil. This old city was founded by the Portuguese in the 1500s and is known for its world’s longest beach garden, the Coffee Museum and the Pele Museum (featuring the famous football player and a local hero). Since the inaugural IWMO meeting in Taiwan in 2009, meetings were held in Asia, Europe, North America, and Australia, but this was the first meeting to be held in South America. With …

A Pre-Industrial Sea-Level Rise Hotspot Along The Atlantic Coast Of North America, W. R. Gehrels, Sönke Dangendorf, N. L. M. Barlow, M. H. Saher, A. J. Long, P. L. Woodworth, C. G. Piecuch, K. Berk

CCPO Publications

The Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras has been proposed as a “hotspot” of late 20th century sea‐level rise. Here we test, using salt‐marsh proxy sea‐level records, if this coast experienced enhanced sea‐level rise over earlier multidecadal‐centennial periods. While we find in agreement with previous studies that 20th century rates of sea‐level change were higher compared to rates during preceding centuries, rates of 18th century sea‐level rise were only slightly lower, suggesting that the “hotspot” is a reoccurring feature for at least three centuries. Proxy sea‐level records from North America (Iceland) are negatively (positively) correlated with centennial …

Mean Sea Level Changes In The Southwestern Baltic Sea Over The Last 190 Years, Jessica Kelln, Sönke Dangendorf, Ulf Gräwe, Holger Steffen, Justus Patzke, Jürgen Jensen

CCPO Publications

(First paragraph) Over the 20th century a global mean sea level (GMSL) rise of about 1.3 to 2 mm/yr could be observed and it is projected to further accelerate throughout the 21st century (Church and White 2006, Hay et al., 2015; Dangendorf et al., 2017). However, GMSL rise is neither temporally nor spatially uniform. Because of a number of different factors (e.g. mass changes and gravitational effects due to melting ice sheets/glaciers, expanding/contracting volume due to temperature and salinity fluctuations, ocean circulation changes, atmospheric forcing), regional mean sea level (MSL) trends can vary significantly from the global average. In order …

The “Challenge" Of Depletion: Why The Oyster Fishery Is Not Self-Regulating, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Leanne M. Poussard

CCPO Publications

The possibility that the economics of the oyster fishery impose a self-limitation on overharvesting has been proffered on occasion. The inefficiency of harvesting by the fishery has been evaluated and estimates of the exploitation rate permissible under conditions of maximum sustainable yield have been obtained in previous studies. The question becomes to what extent does the inefficiency of harvest interact with the economics of the fishery to compromise ready detection of overfishing? This study explores the possibility that the constraint of economics on the fishery occurs at oyster exploitation rates that are higher than maximum sustainable yield, leading ineluctably to …

Constraining An Ocean Model Under Getz Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Using A Gravity‐Derived Bathymetry, Romain Millan, Pierre St-Laurent, Eric Rignot, Mathieu Morlighem, Jeremie Mouginot, Bernd Scheuchl

CCPO Publications

Getz Ice Shelf, the largest producer of ice shelf meltwater in Antarctica, buttresses glaciers that hold enough ice to raise sea level by 22 cm. We present a new bathymetry of its sub‐ice shelf cavity using a three‐dimensional inversion of airborne gravity data constrained by multibeam bathymetry at sea and a reconstruction of the bedrock from mass conservation on land. The new bathymetry is deeper than previously estimated with differences exceeding 500 m in a number of regions. When incorporated into an ocean model, it yields a better description of the spatial distribution of ice shelf melt, specifically along glacier …

Modeling Iron And Light Controls On The Summer Phaeocystis Antarctica Bloom In The Amundsen Sea Polynya, Hilde Oliver, Pierre St-Laurent, Robert M. Sherrell, Patricia L. Yaeger

CCPO Publications

Of all the Antarctic coastal polynyas, the Amundsen Sea Polynya is the most productive per unit area. Observations from the 2010-2011 Amundsen Sea Polynya International Research Expedition (ASPIRE) revealed that both light and iron can limit the growth of phytoplankton (Phaeocystis antarctica), but how these controls manifest over the bloom season is poorly understood, especially with respect to their climate sensitivity. Using a 1-D biogeochemical model, we examine the influence of light and iron limitation on the phytoplankton bloom and vertical carbon flux at 12 stations representing different bloom stages within the polynya. Model parameters are determined by …

Analysis Of Iron Sources In Antarctic Continental Shelf Waters, Michael S. Dinniman, Pierre St-Laurent, Kevin R. Arrigo, Eileen E. Hofmann, Gert L. Van Dijken

CCPO Publications

Previous studies showed that satellite‐derived estimates of chlorophyll a in coastal polynyas over the Antarctic continental shelf are correlated with the basal melt rate of adjacent ice shelves. A 5‐km resolution ocean/sea ice/ice shelf model of the Southern Ocean is used to examine mechanisms that supply the limiting micronutrient iron to Antarctic continental shelf surface waters. Four sources of dissolved iron are simulated with independent tracers, assumptions about the source iron concentration for each tracer, and an idealized summer biological uptake. Iron from ice shelf melt provides about 6% of the total dissolved iron in surface waters. The contribution from …

Annual And Seasonal Surface Circulation Over The Mid Atlantic Bight Continental Shelf Derived From A Decade Of High Frequency Radar Observations, Hugh Roarty, Scott Glenn, Joseph Brodie, Laura Nazzaro, Michael Smith, Ethan Handel, Josh Kohut, Teresa Updyke, Larry Atkinson, William Boicourt, Wendell Brown, Harvey Seim, Mike Muglia, Haixing Wang, Donglai Gong

CCPO Publications

A decade (2007–2016) of hourly 6‐km‐resolution maps of the surface currents across the Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) generated by a regional‐scale High Frequency Radar network are used to reveal new insights into the spatial patterns of the annual and seasonal mean surface flows. Across the 10‐year time series, temporal means and interannual and intra‐annual variability are used to quantify the variability of spatial surface current patterns. The 10‐year annual mean surface flows are weaker and mostly cross‐shelf near the coast, increasing in speed and rotating to more alongshore directions near the shelfbreak, and increasing in speed and rotating to flow off‐shelf …

Vertical Processes And Resolution Impact Ice Shelf Basal Melting: A Multi-Model Study, David E. Gwyther, Kazuya Kusahara, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi

CCPO Publications

Understanding ice shelf–ocean interaction is fundamental to projecting the Antarctic ice sheet response to a warming climate. Numerical ice shelf–ocean models are a powerful tool for simulating this interaction, yet are limited by inherent model weaknesses and scarce observations, leading to parameterisations that are unverified and unvalidated below ice shelves. We explore how different models simulate ice shelf–ocean interaction using the 2nd Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+) framework. Vertical discretisation and resolution of the ocean model are shown to have a significant effect on ice shelf basal melt rate, through differences in the distribution of meltwater fluxes and the …

Global Sea Level Reconstruction For 1900-2015 Reveals Regional Variability In Ocean Dynamics And An Unprecedented Long Weakening In The Gulf Stream Flow Since The 1990s, Tal Ezer, Sönke Dangendorf

CCPO Publications

A new monthly global sea level reconstruction for 1900-2015 was analyzed and compared with various observations to examine regional variability and trends in the ocean dynamics of the western North Atlantic Ocean and the U.S. East Coast. A proxy of the Gulf Stream (GS) strength in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (GS-MAB) and in the South Atlantic Bight (GS-SAB) were derived from sea level differences across the GS in the two regions. While decadal oscillations dominate the 116-year record, the analysis showed an unprecedented long period of weakening in the GS flow since the late 1990s. The only other period of long …

20th Century Multivariate Indian Ocean Regional Sea Level Reconstruction, Praveen Kumar, Benjamin Hamlington, Se-Hyeon Cheon, Weiqing Han, Phillip Thompson

CCPO Publications

Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastlines, Indian Ocean sea level variability over the past century is poorly understood relative to other ocean basins primarily, due to the short and sparse observational records. In an attempt to overcome the limitations imposed by the lack of adequate observations, we have produced a 20th century Indian Ocean sea level reconstruction product using a new multivariate reconstruction technique. This technique uses sea level pressure and sea surface temperature in addition to sea level data to help constrain basin‐wide sea level variability by (1) the removal of large spurious …

The Role Of Eddies And Topography In The Export Of Shelf Waters From The West Antarctic Peninsula Shelf, J. Alexander Brearler, Caelos Moffat, Hugh J. Venables, Michael P. Meredith, Michael S. Dinniman

CCPO Publications

Oceanic heat strongly influences the glaciers and ice shelves along West Antarctica. Prior studies show that the subsurface onshore heat flux from the Southern Ocean on the shelf occurs through deep, glacially carved channels. The mechanisms enabling the export of colder shelf waters to the open ocean, however, have not been determined. Here, we use ocean glider measurements collected near the mouth of Marguerite Trough (MT), west Antarctic Peninsula, to reveal shelf‐modified cold waters on the slope over a deep (2,700 m) offshore topographic bank. The shelf hydrographic sections show subsurface cold features (θ

Editorial-The 9th International Workshop On Modeling The Ocean (Iwmo 2017) In Seoul, Korea, July 3–6, 2017, Lie-Yauw Oey, Yign Noh, Jarle Berntsen, Sung Yong Kim, Humio Mitsudera, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

(First paragraph) The 9th International Workshop on Modeling the Ocean (IWMO 2017) was held in the modern campus of Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, from July 3–6 2017. The workshop was attended by about 80 participants from countries all around the world, many of whom were young and earliercareer scientists: students and postdocs. Papers were presented covering a broad range oftopics on field observations, analyses, and modeling: wave and air-sea interaction dynamics, climate variability, basin-scale processes and coastal oceanography, sea-ice dynamics, sediment transport, tropical cyclones, biogeochemical-physical coupling, boundary currents, sea-level rise, extreme events, ocean prediction and others. We were pleased to …

Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux From Space: With Application To Chesapeake And Delaware Bays, Sergio R. Signorini, Antonio Mannino, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, John Wilkin, Aboozar Tabatabai, Raymond G. Najjar, Eileen E. Hofmann, Fei Da, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao

CCPO Publications

This study uses a neural network model trained with in situ data, combined with satellite data and hydrodynamic model products, to compute the daily estuarine export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the mouths of Chesapeake Bay (CB) and Delaware Bay (DB) from 2007 to 2011. Both bays show large flux variability with highest fluxes in spring and lowest in fall as well as interannual flux variability (0.18 and 0.27 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2010 for CB; 0.04 and 0.09 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2011 for DB). Based on previous estimates of total organic carbon (TOCexp) exported by …

Modeling Ocean Eddies On Antarctica's Cold Water Continental Shelves And Their Effects On Ice Shelf Basal Melting, Stefanie L. Mack, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Dennis J. Mcgillicuddy, Laurence Padman

CCPO Publications

Changes in the rate of ocean‐driven basal melting of Antarctica's ice shelves can alter the rate at which the grounded ice sheet loses mass and contributes to sea level change. Melt rates depend on the inflow of ocean heat, which occurs through steady circulation and eddy fluxes. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of eddy fluxes for ice shelves affected by relatively warm intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water. However, ice shelves on cold water continental shelves primarily melt from dense shelf water near the grounding line and from light surface water at the ice shelf front. Eddy effects on basal …

Hurricane Model Development At Gfdl: A Collaborative Success Story From A Historical Perspective, Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac Ginis, Vijay Tallapragada, Stephen J. Lord

CCPO Publications

The hurricane project at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) was established in 1970. By the mid-1970s pioneering research had led to the development of a new hurricane model. As the reputation of the model grew, GFDL was approached in 1986 by the director of the National Meteorological Center about establishing a collaboration between the two federal organizations to transition the model into an operational modeling system. After a multiyear effort by GFDL scientists to develop a system that could support rigorous requirements of operations, and multiyear testing had demonstrated its superior performance compared …

Impacts Of Basin-Scale Climate Modes On Coastal Sea Level: A Review, Weiqing Han, Detlef Stammer, Philip Thompson, Tal Ezer, Hindu Palanisamy, Xuebin Zhang, Catia M. Domingues, Lei Zhang, Dongliang Yuan

CCPO Publications

Global sea level rise (SLR) associated with a warming climate exerts significant stress on coastal societies and low-lying island regions. The rates of coastal SLR observed in the past few decades, however, have large spatial and temporal differences from the global mean, which to a large part have been attributed to basin-scale climate modes. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about climate modes’ impacts on coastal sea level variability from interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Relevant climate modes, their impacts and associated driving mechanisms through both remote and local processes are elaborated separately for the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic …

Towards Comprehensive Observing And Modeling Systems For Monitoring And Predicting Regional To Coastal Sea Level, Rui M. Ponte, Mark Carson, Mauro Cirano, Catia M. Domingues, Tal Ezer, Xuebin Zhang

CCPO Publications

A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our very limited capacity to predict SL change on coastal scales, over various timescales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of …

Regional Differences In Sea Level Rise Between The Mid-Atlantic Bight And The South Atlantic Bight: Is The Gulf Stream To Blame?, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Recent studies appear to show that a "hot spot" for accelerated sea level rise (SLR) shifted around 2010 from the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) to the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) and south Florida. The role of the Gulf Stream (GS) in this shift was thus investigated. The findings show that in the ~15–20 years before, SLR was accelerating in the MAB due to weakening and southward shifting of the GS. After 2010, however, SLR started slowing down in the MAB due to strengthening and northward shifting of the GS. Thermosteric effects seen in altimeter data indicate a warming trend south of …

Modeling The Seasonal Cycle Of Iron And Carbon Fluxes In The Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica, P. St-Laurent, P. L. Yager, R. M. Sherrell, H. Oliver, M. S. Dinniman, S. E. Stammerjohn

CCPO Publications

The Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) is distinguished by having the highest net primary production per unit area in the coastal Antarctic. Recent studies have related this high productivity to the presence of fast-melting ice shelves, but the mechanisms involved are not well understood. In this study we describe the first numerical model of the ASP to represent explicitly the ocean-ice interactions, nitrogen and iron cycles, and the coastal circulation at high resolution. The study focuses on the seasonal cycle of iron and carbon, and the results are broadly consistent with field observations collected during the summer of 2010–2011. The simulated …

The Tides They Are A-Changin': A Comprehensive Review Of Past And Future Nonastronomical Changes In Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, And Future Implications, Ivan D. Haigh, Mark D. Pickering, J. A. Mattias Green, Brian K. Arbic, Arne Arns, Sönke Dangendorf, David F. Hill, Kevin Horsburgh, Tom Howard, Déborah Idier, David A. Jay, Leon Jänicke, Serena B. Lee, Malte Müller, Michael Schindelegger, Stefan A. Talke, Sophie-Berenice Wilmes, Philip L. Woodworth

CCPO Publications

Scientists and engineers have observed for some time that tidal amplitudes at many locations are shifting considerably due to nonastronomical factors. Here we review comprehensively these important changes in tidal properties, many of which remain poorly understood. Over long geological time scales, tectonic processes drive variations in basin size, depth, and shape and hence the resonant properties of ocean basins. On shorter geological time scales, changes in oceanic tidal properties are dominated by variations in water depth. A growing number of studies have identified widespread, sometimes regionally coherent, positive, and negative trends in tidal constituents and levels during the 19th, …

Description And Mechanisms Of The Mid-Year Upwelling In The Southern Caribbean Sea From Remote Sensing And Local Data, Digna T. Rueda-Roa, Tal Ezer, Frank E. Muller-Karger

CCPO Publications

The southern Caribbean Sea experiences strong coastal upwelling between December and April due to the seasonal strengthening of the trade winds. A second upwelling was recently detected in the southeastern Caribbean during June-August, when local coastal wind intensities weaken. Using synoptic satellite measurements and in situ data, this mid-year upwelling was characterized in terms of surface and subsurface temperature structures, and its mechanisms were explored. The mid-year upwelling lasts 6-9 weeks with satellite sea surface temperature (SST) ~1-2°C warmer than the primary upwelling. Three possible upwelling mechanisms were analyzed: cross-shore Ekman transport (csET) due to alongshore winds, wind curl (Ekman …

Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw

CCPO Publications

[From the Executive Summary] The following report presents a synthesis of reviewer responses from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee’s (STAC) panel on the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Climate Change Assessment Framework (CCAF) and Programmatic Integration and Response Efforts. The enclosed findings and recommendations are in response to the 16 questions delivered to the panel (Appendix A).

In summary, given the current state of knowledge, the combination of using climate model projections and downscaling provides an acceptable baseline for estimating changing climate conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, and the panel finds the CCAF approach to be fundamentally sound. However, the …

Effects Of Projected Changes In Wind, Atmospheric Temperature, And Freshwater Inflow On The Ross Sea, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann, Walker O. Smith Jr.

CCPO Publications

A 5-km horizontal resolution regional ocean-sea ice-ice shelf model of the Ross Sea is used to examine the effects of changes in wind strength, air temperature, and increased meltwater input on the formation of high-salinity shelf water (HSSW), on-shelf transport and vertical mixing of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and its transformation into modified CDW (MCDW), and basal melt of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS). A 20% increase in wind speed, with no other atmospheric changes, reduced summer sea ice minimum area by 20%, opposite the observed trend of the past three decades. Increased winds with spatially uniform, reduced atmospheric temperatures …

Analyzing The Spectral Energy Cascade In Turbulent Channel Flow, João Rodrigo Andrade, Ramon Silva Martins, Gilmar Mompean, Laurent Thais, Thomas B. Gatski

CCPO Publications

An analysis of the spectral turbulent kinetic energy budget in a fully developed turbulent plane channel flow is performed. Direct numerical simulation data are evaluated at friction Reynolds numbers Re_τ of 180 and 1000. The analysis is focused on the influence of the Reynolds number on the spectral cascade of energy and the corresponding energy cascade in physical space in the presence of inhomogeneity and anisotropy. The turbulent kinetic energy distribution is compared for both Reynolds numbers, and the relevant characteristics of the energy transfer process in a wall-bounded turbulent flow are described. Differences in energy cascade are noted …

Editorial-The 8th International Workshop On Modeling The Ocean (Iwmo 2016) In Bologna, Italy, June 7-10, 2016, Tal Ezer, Lie-Yauw Oey, Huijie Xue, Marco Zavatarelli, Gianmaria Sannino, Ricardo De Camargo

CCPO Publications

The 8th International Workshop on Modeling the Ocean (IWMO 2016) was held on June 7–10, 2016, at one of the oldest universities in Europe—the University of Bologna in Italy (founded 1088 A.D.). The workshop returned to Europe for the second time (the other European IWMO was held in Norway in 2013; Berntsen et al. 2014). Since the establishment of the IWMO in 2009 (Oey et al. 2010a, b), meetings were held four times in Asia, two times in Europe, two times in North America, one time in Australia, and for the 10th anniversary of IWMO, the 2018’s meeting will be …

Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington

CCPO Publications

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the …

The Increased Risk Of Flooding In Hampton Roads: On The Roles Of Sea Level Rise, Storm Surges, Hurricanes, And The Gulf Stream, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

The impact of sea level rise on increased tidal flooding and storm surges in the Hampton Roads region is demonstrated, using ~90 years of water level measurements in Norfolk, Virginia. Impacts from offshore storms and variations in the Gulf Stream (GS) are discussed as well, in view of recent studies that show that weakening in the flow of the GS (daily, interannually, or decadal) is often related to elevated water levels along the U.S. East Coast. Two types of impacts from hurricanes on flooding in Hampton Roads are demonstrated here. One type is when a hurricane like Isabel (2003) makes …