Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Prediction Of The Probability Of Large Fires In The Sydney Region Of South-Eastern Australia Using Components Of Fire Weather., R A. Bradstock, J S. Cohn, A M. Gill, M Bedward, C Lucas

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

The probability of large-fire (>= 1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue …