Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Global Forecasts Of Marine Heatwaves, Michael Jacox

Benefits of Ocean Observing Catalog (BOOC)

Timestamp: 44862.4486656366 Email Address: michael.jacox@noaa.gov Name: Michael Jacox Affiliation: NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory Program Office/Division: Position Title: Research oceanographer Title of use case: Global forecasts of marine heatwaves Authors or Creators: Jacox, M., Alexander, M., Amaya, D., Becker, B., Bograd, S., Brodie, S., Hazen, E., Pozo Buil, M., Tommasi, D., Hsu, C.-W., Smith, C. Affiliations of Authors or Creators: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory; NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center; University of Colorado; University of Miami; University of California Santa Cruz Contributors: Affiliation of Contributors: Description: Researchers used climate forecast systems to develop global marine heatwave …

A Remote Sensing And Machine Learning-Based Approach To Forecast The Onset Of Harmful Algal Bloom (Red Tides), Moein Izadi

Dissertations

In the last few decades, harmful algal blooms (HABs, also known as “red tides”) have become one of the most detrimental natural phenomena all around the world especially in Florida’s coastal areas due to local environmental factors and global warming in a larger scale. Karenia brevis produces toxins that have harmful effects on humans, fisheries, and ecosystems. In this study, I developed and compared the efficiency of state-of-the-art machine learning models (e.g., XGBoost, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine) in predicting the occurrence of HABs. In the proposed models, the K. brevis abundance is used as the target, and 10 …

Regression Modeling And Prediction By Individual Observations Versus Frequency, Stan Lipovetsky

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A regression model built by a dataset could sometimes demonstrate a low quality of fit and poor predictions of individual observations. However, using the frequencies of possible combinations of the predictors and the outcome, the same models with the same parameters may yield a high quality of fit and precise predictions for the frequencies of the outcome occurrence. Linear and logistical regressions are used to make an explicit exposition of the results of regression modeling and prediction.

Finding Common Ground For Citizen Empowerment In The Smart City, John D. Kelleher, Aphra Kerr

Articles

Corporate smart city initiatives are just one example of the contemporary culture of surveillance. They rely on extensive information gathering systems and Big Data analysis to predict citizen behaviour and optimise city services. In this paper we argue that many smart city and social media technologies result in a paradox whereby digital inclusion for the purposes of service provision also results in marginalisation and disempowerment of citizens. Drawing upon insights garnered from a digital inclusion workshop conducted in the Galapagos islands, we propose that critically and creatively unpacking the computational techniques embedded in data services is needed as a first …

A Tacticians Guide To Conflict, Vol. 1: Advancing Explanations & Predictions Of Intrastate Conflict, Khaled Eid

CGU Theses & Dissertations

Intrastate conflict is an ever-evolving problem – causes, explanation, and predictions are increasingly murky as traditional methods of analysis focus on structural issues as precursors of conflict. Often times these theories do not consider the underlying meso and micro dynamics that can provide vital insights into the phenomena. Tactical decision-makers are left using models that rely on highly aggregated, country level data to create proper courses of actions (COAs) to address or predict conflict. The shortcoming is that conflicts morph quite rapidly and structural variables can struggle capture such dynamic changes. To address this some tacticians are using big data …

Exploiting The Interdependency Of Land Use And Mobility For Urban Planning, Kasthuri Jayarajah, Andrew Tan, Archan Misra

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Urban planners and economists alike have strong interest in understanding the inter-dependency of land use and people flow. The two-pronged problem entails systematic modeling and understanding of how land use impacts crowd flow to an area and in turn, how the influx of people to an area (or lack thereof) can influence the viability of business entities in that area. With cities becoming increasingly sensor-rich, for example, digitized payments for public transportation and constant trajectory tracking of buses and taxis, understanding and modelling crowd flows at the city scale, as well as, at finer granularity such as at the neighborhood …

Global Deforestation Prediction: Summer Internship At Clark Labs, Tianze Li, Yahsee Joshi

International Development, Community and Environment (IDCE)

This paper is a description of our internship with Clark Labs in the summer of 2016. We worked as research assistants in the Deforestation Risk Prediction project for Ecosystem Services team. This goal of the project was to predict deforestation at global, continental and national level. Our responsibilities were to choose the variables that may influence the deforestation and to use Land Change Modeler in TerrSet to test the variables and create the deforestation prediction maps. We highly recommend this internship with Clark Labs to other GISDE students who are interested in land change analysis.

Infodemiology For Syndromic Surveillance Of Dengue And Typhoid Fever In The Philippines, Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar, Kennedy E. Espina

Department of Information Systems & Computer Science Faculty Publications

Finding determinants of disease outbreaks before its occurrence is necessary in reducing its impact in populations. The supposed advantage of obtaining information brought by automated systems fall short because of the inability to access real-time data as well as interoperate fragmented systems, leading to longer transfer and processing of data. As such, this study presents the use of realtime latent data from social media, particularly from Twitter, to complement existing disease surveillance efforts. By being able to classify infodemiological (health-related) tweets, this study is able to produce a range of possible disease incidences of Dengue and Typhoid Fever within the …

Predictive Modeling Of Adolescent Cannabis Use From Multimodal Data, Philip Spechler

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

Predicting teenage drug use is key to understanding the etiology of substance abuse. However, classic predictive modeling procedures are prone to overfitting and fail to generalize to independent observations. To mitigate these concerns, cross-validated logistic regression with elastic-net regularization was used to predict cannabis use by age 16 from a large sample of fourteen year olds (N=1,319). High-dimensional data (p = 2,413) including parent and child psychometric data, child structural and functional MRI data, and genetic data (candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms, "SNPs") collected at age 14 were used to predict the initiation of cannabis use (minimum six occasions) by age 16. …

Optimal Strategy For Gambling Pools, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In gambling pools, entrants submit predictions and the prizes are awarded to the prediction or predictions closest to actual outcomes. Some well-known examples are football pools (both the global and American game versions), toto, NCAA March Madness bracket pools and horse racing tournaments. For small pools with complete information about outcome probabilities, exact game theory optimal solutions are straightforward to compute. If there is also complete information about the number and strategy of other players, optimal exploitive strategies are even easier to derive. These problems have been treated in the literature.

This paper argues that the complete information approaches are …

Whom Should We Sense In 'Social Sensing' - Analyzing Which Users Work Best For Social Media Now-Casting, Jisun An, Ingmar Weber

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Given the ever increasing amount of publicly available social media data, there is growing interest in using online data to study and quantify phenomena in the offline 'real' world. As social media data can be obtained in near real-time and at low cost, it is often used for 'now-casting' indices such as levels of flu activity or unemployment. The term 'social sensing' is often used in this context to describe the idea that users act as 'sensors', publicly reporting their health status or job losses. Sensor activity during a time period is then typically aggregated in a 'one tweet, one …

Perspectivas Culturais Na Comunicação Climática (Cultural Perspectives On Climate Communication), Karen E. Pennesi

Anthropology Publications

Este artigo considera que a previsão climática deve ser interpretada dentro de contextos sociais, culturais e linguísticos. Dentro de uma perspectiva antropológica baseada em entrevistas, observações e um questionário, será investigado como mudanças no meio-ambiente são entendidas por diferentes indivíduos, e transformadas em previsões que são comunicadas a diversos públicos. A linguagem utilizada e a maneira como a previsão é comunicada depende da experiência e dos objetivos do previsor, enquanto que a interpretação e a avaliação da previsão por outros são influenciadas por seus diferentes objetivos, atitudes, conhecimento e práticas. Esta etnografia da comunicação enfatiza o processo da comunicação das …

A Climatological Study Of Drought In Southern Michigan, Rudy Bartels

Masters Theses

Drought has become a reoccurring phenomenon throughout many regions around the world. Significant drought conditions have beenobserved overthe pastfive decades in relation to economic, social, and agricultural impacts. In this study, Southern Michigan is investigated over the past 52 years from 1960-2012. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) will be calculated over a 6-month timescale from monthly precipitations. Three variables including 500-mb heights, surface pressure maps, and sea surface temperatures, will be correlated with the SPI using sliding correlations and Pearson's R correlation to determine any relations between these variables and precipitation variations. We will further investigate the five driest, wettest, …

Risk Factors For Physical Violence Against Partners In The U.S., K. Daniel O'Leary, Nathan L. Tintle, Evelyn Bromet

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

Objective: To examine unique and relative predictive values of demographic, social learning, developmental, psychopathology, and dyadic variables as risk factors for perpetration of intimate partner physical aggression in a national sample of married or cohabiting individuals. Method: Men (n = 798) and women (n = 770) were selected from the public use data file of the 2003 National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R) which used a multistage cluster sampling design. Results: Eight percent of women and 5% of men reported perpetrating physical aggression in the past year. Based on multivariable regression analyses, among men, the unique risk factors for perpetrating physical …

Improving Promoter Prediction For The Nnpp2.2 Algorithm: A Case Study Using Escherichia Coli Dna Sequences, Ren Zhang, Alexandra Burden, Yan-Xia Lin

Associate Professor Yan-Xia Lin

No abstract provided.

The Probability Distribution Of Distance Tss-Tls Is Organism Characteristic And Can Be Used For Promoter Prediction, Yun Dai, Ren Zhang, Yan-Xia Lin

Associate Professor Yan-Xia Lin

Transcription is a complicated process which involves the interactions of promoter cis-elements with multiple trans-protein factors. The specific interactions rely not only on the specific sequence recognition between the cis- and trans-factors but also on certain spatial arrangement of the factors in a complex. The relative positioning of involved cis-elements provides the framework for such a spatial arrangement. The distance distribution between gene transcription and translation start sites (TSS-TLS) is the subject of the present study to test an assumption that over evolution, the TSS-TLS distance becomes a distinct character for a given organism. Four representative organisms (Escherichia cloi, Saccharomyces …

Improving Promoter Prediction For The Nnpp2.2 Algorithm: A Case Study Using Escherichia Coli Dna Sequences, Ren Zhang, Alexandra Burden, Yan-Xia Lin

Alexandra Burden, Lecturer, School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, Faculty of Informatics

No abstract provided.

Exploring The Impact Of Knowledge And Social Environment On Influenza Prevention And Transmission In Midwestern United States High School Students, William L. Romine, Tanvi Banerjee, William S. Barrow, William R. Folk

Kno.e.sis Publications

We used data from a convenience sample of 410 Midwestern United States students from six secondary schools to develop parsimonious models for explaining and predicting precautions and illness related to influenza. Scores for knowledge and perceptions were obtained using two-parameter Item Response Theory (IRT) models. Relationships between outcome variables and predictors were verified using Pearson and Spearman correlations, and nested [student within school] fixed effects multinomial logistic regression models were specified from these using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). Neural network models were then formulated as classifiers using 10-fold cross validation to predict precautions and illness. Perceived barriers against taking precautions …

Demographic Prediction Of Mobile User From Phone Usage, Shahram Mohrehkesh, Shuiwang Ji, Tamer Nadeem, Michele C. Weigle

Computer Science Faculty Publications

In this paper, we describe how we use the mobile phone usage of users to predict their demographic attributes. Using call log, visited GSM cells information, visited Bluetooth devices, visited Wireless LAN devices, accelerometer data, and so on, we predict the gender, age, marital status, job and number of people in household of users. The accuracy of developed classifiers for these classification problems ranges from 45-87% depending upon the particular classification problem.

The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows.We distinguish between two types of predictability: the intrinsic or theoretical predictability of a system and the realized predictability that is achieved using available models and parameterizations. We contend that there are strong limits on the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems that arise from inherent characteristics of biological systems. While the realized predictability of ecological systems can be limited by process and parameter misspecification or uncertainty, we argue that the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems is widely and strongly limited …

Prediction Of The Probability Of Large Fires In The Sydney Region Of South-Eastern Australia Using Components Of Fire Weather., R A. Bradstock, J S. Cohn, A M. Gill, M Bedward, C Lucas

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

The probability of large-fire (>= 1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue …

Slides: Water Needs And Strategies For A Sustainable Future, Shaun Mcgrath

Shifting Baselines and New Meridians: Water, Resources, Landscapes, and the Transformation of the American West (Summer Conference, June 4-6)

Presenter: Shaun McGrath, Program Director, Western Governors’ Association

25 slides

An Exploration Of Using Data Mining In Educational Research, Yonghong Jade Xu

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Technology advances popularized large databases in education. Traditional statistics have limitations for analyzing large quantities of data. This article discusses data mining by analyzing a data set with three models: multiple regression, data mining, and a combination of the two. It is concluded that data mining is applicable in educational research.

Jmasm10: A Fortran Routine For Sieve Bootstrap Prediction Intervals, Andrés M. Alonso

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A Fortran routine for constructing nonparametric prediction intervals for a general class of linear processes is described. The approach uses the sieve bootstrap procedure of Bühlmann (1997) based on residual resampling from an autoregressive approximation to the given process.

The Long Time Scales Of Human-Caused Climate Warming: Further Challenges For The Global Policy Process, Jerry D. Mahlman

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

28 pages.

"Jerry D. Mahlman, Senior Research Fellow, National Center for Atmospheric Research"

"Presented at the Pew Center Workshop on The Timing of Climate Change Policies, The Westin Grand Hotel, Washington, DC, October 10-12, 2001"

"Cite As: Mahlman, J.D. 2001. The Long Time Scales of Human-Caused Climate Warming: Further Challenges for the Global Policy Process. Pew Center Workshop on the Timing of Climate Change Policies, October 10-12, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA."

Subsidence Of Land Caused By Ground-Water Pumping, Thomas L. Holzer

Groundwater: Allocation, Development and Pollution (Summer Conference, June 6-9)

22 pages (includes illustration).

Contains references (pages 2-6).

Land Subsidence And Ground-Water Pumping: Outline, Thomas L. Holzer

Water Resources Allocation: Laws and Emerging Issues: A Short Course (Summer Conference, June 8-11)

10 pages.

Contains research sources.