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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Predictive Modeling Of Adolescent Cannabis Use From Multimodal Data, Philip Spechler
Predictive Modeling Of Adolescent Cannabis Use From Multimodal Data, Philip Spechler
Graduate College Dissertations and Theses
Predicting teenage drug use is key to understanding the etiology of substance abuse. However, classic predictive modeling procedures are prone to overfitting and fail to generalize to independent observations. To mitigate these concerns, cross-validated logistic regression with elastic-net regularization was used to predict cannabis use by age 16 from a large sample of fourteen year olds (N=1,319). High-dimensional data (p = 2,413) including parent and child psychometric data, child structural and functional MRI data, and genetic data (candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms, "SNPs") collected at age 14 were used to predict the initiation of cannabis use (minimum six occasions) by age 16. …
The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman
The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman
College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications
Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows.We distinguish between two types of predictability: the intrinsic or theoretical predictability of a system and the realized predictability that is achieved using available models and parameterizations. We contend that there are strong limits on the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems that arise from inherent characteristics of biological systems. While the realized predictability of ecological systems can be limited by process and parameter misspecification or uncertainty, we argue that the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems is widely and strongly limited …