Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

An Imputation Approach To Developing Alternative Futures Of Country Conflict, Zachary J. Kane

Theses and Dissertations

Understanding what causes countries to be in a state of violent conflict is of vital importance to developing realistic national strategies on both a regional and global scale. Given these causes, it is important to understand the effects of missing data, how to impute that data, and the interrelation between data elements. Utilizing both open source data and previously generated equations that predict a country’s likelihood to transition conflict statuses, this research projects data into the future and predicts each nations’ subsequent conflict statuses. Future data is populated using a novel approach inspired by stochastic regression imputation. The replicated future …