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Articles 1 - 25 of 25
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Improving Country Conflict And Peace Modeling: Datasets, Imputations, And Hierarchical Clustering, Benjamin D. Leiby
Improving Country Conflict And Peace Modeling: Datasets, Imputations, And Hierarchical Clustering, Benjamin D. Leiby
Theses and Dissertations
Many disparate datasets exist that provide country attributes covering political, economic, and social aspects. Unfortunately, this data often does not include all countries nor is the data complete for those countries included, as measured by the dataset’s missingness. This research addresses these dataset shortfalls in predicting country instability by considering country attributes in all aspects as well as in greater thresholds of missingness. First, a structured summary of past research is presented framed by a developed casual taxonomy and functional ontology. Additionally, a novel imputation technique for very large datasets is presented to account for moderate missingness in the expanded …
A Quantitative Argument For Autonomous Aerial Defense Overembedded Missile Systems To Thwart Cruise Threats, Andrew R. Davis
A Quantitative Argument For Autonomous Aerial Defense Overembedded Missile Systems To Thwart Cruise Threats, Andrew R. Davis
Theses and Dissertations
Given the high cost of missile defense systems, their ability to be overwhelmed, and rising tensions between the U.S. and adversaries in the Indo-Pacific region, a new modeled is proposed to investigate a new approach to missile defense. The Autonomous Aerial Defense Against Missiles (AADAM) system leverages reusable, small-scale UAVs to propose a cheaper, more effective system in defending against cruise missile threats. The aim of this system is to provide and additional layer in current missile defense strategies at lower-cost. This modeled system is found to outperform a modeled Patriot system in close-range interception of designated assets, with no …
Mult-Spectral Imaging Of Vegetation With A Diffractive Plenoptic Camera, Tristan R. Naranjo
Mult-Spectral Imaging Of Vegetation With A Diffractive Plenoptic Camera, Tristan R. Naranjo
Theses and Dissertations
Snapshot multi-spectral sensors allow for object detection based on its spectrum for remote sensing applications in air or space. By making these types of sensors more compact and lightweight, it allows drones to dwell longer on targets or the reduction of transport costs for satellites. To address this need, I designed and built a diffractive plenoptic camera (DPC) which utilized a Fresnel zone plate and a light field camera in order to detect vegetation via a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). This thesis derives design equations by relating DPC system parameters to its expected performance and evaluates its multi-spectral performance. …
An Imputation Approach To Developing Alternative Futures Of Country Conflict, Zachary J. Kane
An Imputation Approach To Developing Alternative Futures Of Country Conflict, Zachary J. Kane
Theses and Dissertations
Understanding what causes countries to be in a state of violent conflict is of vital importance to developing realistic national strategies on both a regional and global scale. Given these causes, it is important to understand the effects of missing data, how to impute that data, and the interrelation between data elements. Utilizing both open source data and previously generated equations that predict a country’s likelihood to transition conflict statuses, this research projects data into the future and predicts each nations’ subsequent conflict statuses. Future data is populated using a novel approach inspired by stochastic regression imputation. The replicated future …
Forecasting Country Conflict Within Modified Combatant Command Regions Using Statistical Learning Methods, Sarah Neumann
Forecasting Country Conflict Within Modified Combatant Command Regions Using Statistical Learning Methods, Sarah Neumann
Theses and Dissertations
Conflict forecasts are crucial to Combatant Commanders’ understanding of the dynamic environment encompassing countries within their area of responsibility. The current structure of the Combatant Commands (COCOMs) is rooted in geography by grouping nations in geographic proximity to the same regional command. However, leaders today question the effectiveness of the current structure. A novel modified k-means clustering algorithm is developed and implemented that groups countries based on data similarities and geographic proximity resulting in new COCOM groupings that improve conflict forecasts. The data spans various political, military, economic, and social characteristics of countries, and is used to develop conditional logistic …
A Statistical Approach To Characterize And Detect Degradation Within The Barabasi-Albert Network, Mohd-Fairul Mohd-Zaid
A Statistical Approach To Characterize And Detect Degradation Within The Barabasi-Albert Network, Mohd-Fairul Mohd-Zaid
Theses and Dissertations
Social Network Analysis (SNA) is widely used by the intelligence community when analyzing the relationships between individuals within groups of interest. Hence, any tools that can be quantitatively shown to help improve the analyses are advantageous for the intelligence community. To date, there have been no methods developed to characterize a real world network as a Barabasi-Albert network which is a type of network with properties contained in many real-world networks. In this research, two newly developed statistical tests using the degree distribution and the L-moments of the degree distribution are proposed with application to classifying networks and detecting degradation …
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
Theses and Dissertations
Using open source data, this research formulates and constructs a suite of statistical models that predict future transitions into and out of violent conflict and forecasts the regional and global incidences of violent conflict over a ten-year time horizon. A total of thirty predictor variables are tested and evaluated for inclusion in twelve conditional logistic regression models, which calculate the probability that a nation will transition from its current conflict state, either In Conflict or Not in Conflict, to a new state in the following year. These probabilities are then used to construct a series of nation-specific Markov chain models …
Combating Biological Terrorism From Imported Food, Jeffrey S. Nelson
Combating Biological Terrorism From Imported Food, Jeffrey S. Nelson
Theses and Dissertations
There is a threat that a terrorist or terrorist organization will use access to the US food supply to kill or sicken Americans by contaminating imported food products from Mexico. The food that Americans eat is coming more and more often from foreign countries such as Mexico. Foodborne diseases infect nearly fifty million people in the US each year, resulting in over three thousand deaths. There are many terrorist organizations that would like to deliberately contaminate American food. Drug cartels and terrorist organizations currently operate in Mexico, one of the leading food importers into the US. The purpose of this …
Exploitation Of Geographic Information Systems For Vehicular Destination Prediction, Richard T. Muster
Exploitation Of Geographic Information Systems For Vehicular Destination Prediction, Richard T. Muster
Theses and Dissertations
Much of the recent successes in the Iraqi theater have been achieved with the aid of technology so advanced that celebrated journalist Bob Woodward recently compared it to the Manhattan Project of WWII. Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) platforms have emerged as the rising star of Air Force operational capabilities as they are enablers in the quest to track and disrupt terrorist and insurgent forces. This thesis argues that ISR systems have been severely under-exploited. The proposals herein seek to improve the machine-human interface of current ISR systems such that a predictive battle-space awareness may be achieved, leading to shorter …
Characterizing And Detecting Unrevealed Elements Of Network Systems, James A. Leinart
Characterizing And Detecting Unrevealed Elements Of Network Systems, James A. Leinart
Theses and Dissertations
This dissertation addresses the problem of discovering and characterizing unknown elements in network systems. Klir (1985) provides a general definition of a system as “... a set of some things and a relation among the things" (p. 4). A system, where the `things', i.e. nodes, are related through links is a network system (Klir, 1985). The nodes can represent a range of entities such as machines or people (Pearl, 2001; Wasserman & Faust, 1994). Likewise, links can represent abstract relationships such as causal influence or more visible ties such as roads (Pearl, 1988, pp. 50-51; Wasserman & Faust, 1994; Winston, …
Satellite-Based Fusion Of Image/Inertial Sensors For Precise Geolocation, Neil R. Jesse
Satellite-Based Fusion Of Image/Inertial Sensors For Precise Geolocation, Neil R. Jesse
Theses and Dissertations
The ability to produce high-resolution images of the Earth’s surface from space has flourished in recent years with the continuous development and improvement of satellite-based imaging sensors. Earth-imaging satellites often rely on complex onboard navigation systems, with dependence on Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking and/or continuous post-capture georegistration, to accurately geolocate ground targets of interest to either commercial and military customers. Consequently, these satellite systems are often massive, expensive, and susceptible to poor or unavailable target tracking capabilities in GPS-denied environments. Previous research has demonstrated that a tightly-coupled image-aided inertial navigation system (INS), using existing onboard imaging sensors, can provide …
Geospatial Informational Security Risks And Concerns Of The U.S. Air Force Geobase Program, Scott A. Bryant
Geospatial Informational Security Risks And Concerns Of The U.S. Air Force Geobase Program, Scott A. Bryant
Theses and Dissertations
Technological advancements such as Geospatial Information Systems (GIS) and the Internet have made it easier and affordable to share information, which enables complex and time sensitive decisions to be made with higher confidence. Further, advancements in information technology have dramatically increased the ability to store, manage, integrate, and correlate larger amounts of data to improve operational efficiency. However, the same technologies that enable increased productivity also provide increased capabilities to those wishing to do harm. Today’s military leaders are faced with the challenge of deciding how to make geospatial information collected on military installations and organizations available to authorized communities …
Internet Protocol Geolocation: Development Of A Delay-Based Hybrid Methodology For Locating The Geographic Location Of A Network Node, John M. Roehl
Internet Protocol Geolocation: Development Of A Delay-Based Hybrid Methodology For Locating The Geographic Location Of A Network Node, John M. Roehl
Theses and Dissertations
Internet Protocol Geolocation (IP Geolocation), the process of determining the approximate geographic location of an IP addressable node, has proven useful in a wide variety of commercial applications. Commercial applications of IP Geolocation include market research, redirection for performance enhancement, restricting content, and combating fraud. The potential for military applications include securing remote access via geographic authentication, intelligence collection, and cyber attack attribution. IP Geolocation methods can be divided into three basic categories based upon what information is used to determine the geographic location of the given IP address: 1) Information contained in databases, 2) information that is leaked during …
Classifying Failing States, Nathan E. Nysether
Classifying Failing States, Nathan E. Nysether
Theses and Dissertations
The US is heavily involved in the first major war of the 21st Century -- The Global War on Terror (GWOT). As with any militant group, the foundation of the enemy's force is their people. There are two primary strategies for defeating the terrorists and achieving victory in the GWOT. First, we must root out terrorists where they live, train, plan, and recruit and attack them militarily. Second, we must suffocate them by cutting off the supply of new soldiers willing to choose aggression or even death over their current life. This thesis helps to achieve these objectives by applying …
Theory Of Effectiveness Measurement, Richard K. Bullock
Theory Of Effectiveness Measurement, Richard K. Bullock
Theses and Dissertations
Effectiveness measures provide decision makers feedback on the impact of deliberate actions and affect critical issues such as allocation of scarce resources, as well as whether to maintain or change existing strategy. Currently, however, there is no formal foundation for formulating effectiveness measures. This research presents a new framework for effectiveness measurement from both a theoretical and practical view. First, accepted effects-based principles, as well as fundamental measurement concepts are combined into a general, domain independent, effectiveness measurement methodology. This is accomplished by defining effectiveness measurement as the difference, or conceptual distance from a given system state to some reference …
Comparative Analysis Of Biosurveillance Methodologies, David M. Kempisty
Comparative Analysis Of Biosurveillance Methodologies, David M. Kempisty
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to compare two different biosurveillance methodologies: BioWatch and "A Hot Idea". BioWatch is fielded and operating in major US cities today. Air samples are collected on filter paper and analyzed for the presence of harmful biological agents. "A Hot Idea" is an evolving methodology using the human body's immune response to identify the onset of infection from a harmful pathogen. Detecting a temperature increase, using infrared thermographers, in a statistically significant portion of population would allow earlier identification of a biological release, accelerating initiation of response actions. A selected population including policemen, firemen, and …
The Longitudinal Effect Of Self-Monitoring And Locus Of Control On Social Network Position In Friendship Networks, Gary J. Moore
The Longitudinal Effect Of Self-Monitoring And Locus Of Control On Social Network Position In Friendship Networks, Gary J. Moore
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research was to identify how enduring personality characteristics predict a person's location in a network, locations which in turn affect outcomes such as performance. Specifically, this thesis examines how self-monitoring and locus of control influence an individual's location in a friendship social network over time. Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) was used to analyze 28 groups of students and instructors at a military training course over six and one half weeks. Self-monitoring predicted betweenness centrality in five of six time periods while locus of control predicted betweenness centrality in three of six time periods. The moderation of …
An Estimation Theory Approach To Detection And Ranging Of Obscured Targets In 3-D Ladar Data, Charles R. Burris
An Estimation Theory Approach To Detection And Ranging Of Obscured Targets In 3-D Ladar Data, Charles R. Burris
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to develop an algorithm to detect obscured images in 3-D LADAR data. The real data used for this research was gathered using a FLASH LADAR system under development at AFRL/SNJM. The system transmits light with a wavelength of 1.55 micrometers and produces 20 128 X 128 temporally resolved images from the return pulse separated by less than 2 nanoseconds in time. New algorithms for estimating the range to a target in 3-D FLASH LADAR data were developed. Results from processing real data are presented and compared to the traditional correlation receiver for extracting ranges …
Bda Enhancement Methodology Using Situational Parameter Adjustments, Michael V. Carras Jr.
Bda Enhancement Methodology Using Situational Parameter Adjustments, Michael V. Carras Jr.
Theses and Dissertations
In the context of close ground combat, the perception of Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) is closely linked with a soldier’s engagement decisions and has significant effects on the battlefield. Perceived BDA is also one of the most complex and uncertain processes facing the soldier in live combat. As a result, the modeling and simulation community has yet to adequately model the perceived BDA process in combat models. This research effort examines the BDA process from a perception standpoint and proposes a methodology to collect the pertinent data and model this perception in the Army’s current force-on-force model, CASTFOREM. A subject …
Investigation Of Geobase Implementation Issues: Case Study Of Information Resource Management, Mario L. Oliver
Investigation Of Geobase Implementation Issues: Case Study Of Information Resource Management, Mario L. Oliver
Theses and Dissertations
Billions of dollars have been wasted on failed information system (IS) projects over the last decade in the private and public sectors. More specifically, the tri-service environment of the U.S. military has not implemented a single successful geospatial IS (GIS). The lack of a service-wide insertion process for GIS was cited as the most significant cause for military GIS failures. GeoBase represents the USAF's most recent GIS implementation. The GeoBase program focuses on Information Resource Management (IRM) and cultural issues. The GeoBase Sustainment Model (GSM), anecdotally developed by GeoBase leadership to reflect implementation issues and the IRM practices of the …
Remote Sensing Systems Optimization For Geobase Enhancement, Steve J. Paylor
Remote Sensing Systems Optimization For Geobase Enhancement, Steve J. Paylor
Theses and Dissertations
The U.S. Air Force is in the process of implementing GeoBase, a geographic information system (GIS), throughout its worldwide installations, Air Force GIS needs can be augmented by imagery from aerial and satellite platforms. Imagery has greatly improved over the past several years and provides high resolution coverage of features on earth. Various imagery types will significantly increase GeoBase usefulness in a range of mission requirements, Potential Air Force uses of imagery include identifying heat loss, environmental monitoring, command decision-making, and emergency response, The research develops a decision tool to determine the appropriate imagery for a given Air Force Application, …
Collection Of Detonation Signatures And Characterization Of Spectral Features, Jay A. Orson
Collection Of Detonation Signatures And Characterization Of Spectral Features, Jay A. Orson
Theses and Dissertations
The remote observations of the temporal and spectral characteristics of the infrared (IR) emissions from exploding ordnance have been correlated with explosion conditions. A Bomem MR-154 Fourier Transform Interferometer with two detectors, InSb and HgCdTe, and a 75 mrad telescope was used to record spectra in the 1.3 - 20 µm range. Data was collected at spectral resolutions of 16 cm-1 and 4 cm-1 and temporal resolutions of 0.045 s and 0.123 s respectively. Two field tests were conducted: (1) a set of dynamic drop explosions and (2) a series of static detonations. In most events, the temporal …
Implementation Of Speech Recognition Software For Text Processing: An Exploratory Analysis, Sean P. Abell
Implementation Of Speech Recognition Software For Text Processing: An Exploratory Analysis, Sean P. Abell
Theses and Dissertations
The rationale behind implementing new information technologies is often to gain productivity improvements associated with the substitution of machinery for labor. However, the literature shows little direct evidence of a positive relationship between information technology investment and subsequent productivity benefits. This thesis reports on the examination into the productivity implications of implementing speech recognition software in a text processing environment. More specifically, research was conducted to compare text processing speeds and error rates using speech recognition software versus the keyboard and mouse. Of interest was the time required to input and proofread text processing tasks as well as the number …
Subjective Quality Of Experience With The Internet: Accounting For Temporal Changes In User Acceptance Of Information Technology, Jason M. Turner
Subjective Quality Of Experience With The Internet: Accounting For Temporal Changes In User Acceptance Of Information Technology, Jason M. Turner
Theses and Dissertations
Contemporary information technology (IT) related research has focused on use as a key dependent measure for valuing IT. By understanding the determinants of IT use, we gain descriptive information about successful IT, and prescriptive information for better deploying IT resources. Although there are several competing theories regarding IT use, research findings often cite their inability to account for temporal changes in usage behaviors. This thesis introduces quality of experience as a potential moderator between the determinants of use and actual usage behaviors. A pilot survey concerning Internet usage generated potentially relevant items which were later refined into a questionnaire assessing …
The Implementation Of Federal Government Policy In The Reuse Planning Of Military Installations: A Case Study Of Gentile Air Force Station, John L. Hoover
The Implementation Of Federal Government Policy In The Reuse Planning Of Military Installations: A Case Study Of Gentile Air Force Station, John L. Hoover
Theses and Dissertations
Local communities affected by a base closure are uncertain as to their future and look to the federal government for guidance and economic assistance in rebuilding their local economy. The local communities want to close the base with as little federal government interference as possible and convert the base to civilian use with as much federal financial assistance as possible. During 1993-1994 two Air Force Institute of Technology research teams began longitudinal case studies of the base closure and rescue process at Gentile Air Force Station, Ohio to determine the effectiveness of the federal government's current approach. These research teams …