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Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Theses/Dissertations

2018

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Articles 31 - 60 of 211

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Population Dynamics And Genotypic Richness Of The Threatened Acropora Spp. And Their Hybrid In The U.S. Virgin Islands, Hannah F. Nylander-Asplin Nov 2018

Population Dynamics And Genotypic Richness Of The Threatened Acropora Spp. And Their Hybrid In The U.S. Virgin Islands, Hannah F. Nylander-Asplin

HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations

Since the 1980’s, there has been an unprecedented decline in the reef-building Caribbean corals, Acropora cervicornis and A. palmata, which has led to their listing as “threatened” under the U.S Endangered Species Act. Despite this protective status, these Acropora species continue to experience declines primarily attributed to disease, global climate change, and storm damage. Recent evidence suggests the hybrid of these threatened species (A. prolifera) is found at abundances similar to or higher than the parental species at many sites throughout the Caribbean. However, there is still much that is unknown as to how and why hybrids may …

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Early Life History Response Of Reef Building Coral, Orbicella Faveolata, To Ocean Acidification And Warming, Kelly A. Pitts Nov 2018

Early Life History Response Of Reef Building Coral, Orbicella Faveolata, To Ocean Acidification And Warming, Kelly A. Pitts

HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations

Ocean warming and acidification pose major threats to coral reef organisms. It is unknown how the early life history stages of Atlantic corals cope with the combined effects of these two global environmental stressors. Here, I investigate how these stressors influence the fertilization success, larval survivorship, and settlement of the threatened Atlantic coral, Orbicella faveolata. Gametes from O. faveolata were subjected to a factorial combination of present and future scenarios of oceanic temperatures (28.5° C and 30° C) and pH (8.2 and 8.0) predicted to occur by 2050. Results indicate that treatment type did not significantly affect fertilization success. …

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Dormancy In The Amphistegina Gibbosa Holobiont: Ecological And Evolutionary Implications For The Foraminifera, Benjamin J. Ross Nov 2018

Dormancy In The Amphistegina Gibbosa Holobiont: Ecological And Evolutionary Implications For The Foraminifera, Benjamin J. Ross

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Dormancy, a state of severely decreased or suspended metabolism, is a widespread survival strategy in nature. In the Foraminifera, one of the most studied groups of marine organisms, its presence had been suggested by circumstantial evidence, but rarely studied directly until recently. Despite the lack of research, stressor-induced dormancy can significantly alter the way in which foraminiferal ecology is understood, especially in marginal environments. In this dissertation, I reviewed the evidence for dormancy in the foraminiferal literature, concluding that evidence for dormancy is widespread across the Phylum. I then explored the role of dormancy in the survival of the diatom-bearing …

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Quantifying The Probability Of Lethal Injury To Florida Manatees Given Characteristics Of Collision Events., B. Lynn Combs Nov 2018

Quantifying The Probability Of Lethal Injury To Florida Manatees Given Characteristics Of Collision Events., B. Lynn Combs

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Wherever wildlife share space with boaters, collisions are a potential source of mortality. Establishing protection and speed zones are the primary actions taken to mitigate collision risk. However, creation of protection zones may be a point of contention with stakeholders as new zones can have significant socioeconomic impacts. The Florida Manatee is a prime example of a species whose abundance and viability are constrained by this balance between the needs of humans and wildlife on a shared landscape. The goal of this work is to help further understand the risk to manatees by quantifying the probability of lethal collisions. I …

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Integrating Towed Underwater Video With Multibeam Acoustics For Mapping Benthic Habitat And Assessing Reef Fish Communities On The West Florida Shelf, Alexander Ross Ilich Nov 2018

Integrating Towed Underwater Video With Multibeam Acoustics For Mapping Benthic Habitat And Assessing Reef Fish Communities On The West Florida Shelf, Alexander Ross Ilich

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Using a towed underwater video camera system, benthic habitats were classified along transects in a popular offshore fishing area on the West Florida Shelf (WFS) known as “The Elbow.” Additionally, high resolution multibeam bathymetry and co-registered backscatter data were collected for the entire study area. Using these data, full coverage geologic and biotic habitat maps were developed using both unsupervised and supervised statistical classification methodologies. The unsupervised methodology used was k-means clustering, and the supervised methodology used a random forest algorithm. The two methods produced broadly similar results; however, the supervised methodology outperformed the unsupervised methodology. The results of the …

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Ice And Guano Deposits In El Malpais Lava Tubes: Potential Paleoclimate Archives For The Southwest United States, Dylan S. Parmenter Oct 2018

Ice And Guano Deposits In El Malpais Lava Tubes: Potential Paleoclimate Archives For The Southwest United States, Dylan S. Parmenter

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Three ice cores and one guano core were obtained from lava tubes in El Malpais National Monument, New Mexico, in the Southwest United States. A large hiatus in the Bat Cave guano record, resulting from mining activities in the early 1900's, left us with only ~50 years of data (from AD 1955-2006) to use in analysis. 13C values in guano (-18 to -11.6‰) primarily fall within the range of C4 plants, and likely indicate a tendency of Tadarida brasiliensis to feed on insects over grasslands to the North or South of the park. Variations in 13C values for this period …

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Mid-Pliocene To Early Pleistocene Sea Surface And Land Temperature History Of Nw Australia Based On Organic Geochemical Proxies From Site U1463, Rebecca Smith Oct 2018

Mid-Pliocene To Early Pleistocene Sea Surface And Land Temperature History Of Nw Australia Based On Organic Geochemical Proxies From Site U1463, Rebecca Smith

Masters Theses

Ocean gateways facilitate water circulation between ocean basins, and therefore directly impact thermohaline circulation and global climate. In order to better predict the effects of future climate change, it is critical to constrain past changes in ocean gateway behavior, and corresponding changes in thermohaline circulation, particularly during analogue periods for modern climate change. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is a primary ocean gateway and vital component of the global conveyor that transports water from the Pacific Ocean into the Indian Ocean, however due to a lack of long and continuous sedimentary records from locations under its influence, changes in ITF behavior …

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Tidal-, Wind-, And Buoyancy-Driven Dynamics In The Barataria Estuary And Its Impact On Estuarine-Shelf Exchange Processes, Linlin Cui Oct 2018

Tidal-, Wind-, And Buoyancy-Driven Dynamics In The Barataria Estuary And Its Impact On Estuarine-Shelf Exchange Processes, Linlin Cui

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

A three-dimensional, high-resolution, Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) was used to study the dynamics of Barataria Estuary located in the Southeastern Louisiana. Three numerical experiments with different discharge scenarios, including the actual discharge (average ~ 160 m3 s-1) from the Davis Pond Diversion (DPD) over three months from April to June 2010, no discharge (NO), and the proposed Mid-Barataria Diversion (MBD) with a constant discharge of 850 m3 s-1, were conducted to investigate the impacts of river diversions on salinity gradients and residence times in the estuary. The three-month average salinity indicated that surface …

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Quantitative Validation Of Simulated Sea Ice Displacements, Bryan R. Mccormick Oct 2018

Quantitative Validation Of Simulated Sea Ice Displacements, Bryan R. Mccormick

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Accurate simulations of Arctic sea ice are important for forecasting as well as for understanding the global climate. However, quantitative measures for simulation displacements are underutilized. We present five such measures proposed as being useful in the validation of simulated sea ice displacements. Using drifting buoy and satellite measurements of sea ice motion as observation, we apply the metrics in a comparison of observed displacements and predicted displacements from the Arctic sea ice simulation MPM\_ice. We find the metric scores are useful for comparing simulations and observations. The metrics also brought to light problems in the simulation MPM_ice, demonstrating their …

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Characterizing Diatom Biofilms And Their Influence On The Sand Biogeochemistry Of High Energy Beaches, Logan C. Jarrell Oct 2018

Characterizing Diatom Biofilms And Their Influence On The Sand Biogeochemistry Of High Energy Beaches, Logan C. Jarrell

Honors Theses

High energy beaches are among the most dynamic ecological settings on Earth. Compared to mudflats, diatoms of high energy beaches have been more neglected in the literature, particularly true of the intertidal biofilms that form and dissipate with nutrient cycling and light intensity over the tidal cycle. Although short lived, the productivity of these biofilms may be critical to the organic-poor sand. Through sediment coring and subsequent analyses of the uppermost sand of three suspected biofilm stations—non-runnel, runnel crest, and runnel trough—along with seemingly bare sand as a control, this study sought to verify the presence of diatom biofilms and …

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Habitat Preferences Of Blue Marlin (Makaira Nigricans) And Black Marlin (Istiompax Indica) In The Eastern Pacific Ocean, Nima Farchadi, Michael G. Hinton, Andrew R. Thompson, Zhi-Yong Yin Sep 2018

Habitat Preferences Of Blue Marlin (Makaira Nigricans) And Black Marlin (Istiompax Indica) In The Eastern Pacific Ocean, Nima Farchadi, Michael G. Hinton, Andrew R. Thompson, Zhi-Yong Yin

Theses

Overexploitation and climate change can reduce the abundance and shift the spatial distribution of marine species. Determining the habitat suitability of a mobile pelagic species, such as Makaira nigricans (BUM) and Istiompax indica (BLM), can help describe their spatiotemporal distribution patterns over a broad spatial scale, which is a crucial need for fisheries management. Using 14 years (1997-2010) of Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) catch data from purse-seine vessels in the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO), we modeled the dynamic habitat suitability of BUM and BLM in response to environmental variables within the EPO using a species distribution model (MaxEnt) with …

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The Assemblage Structure And Trophic Ecology Of A Deep-Pelagic Fish Family (Platytroctidae) In The Gulf Of Mexico, Michael Novotny Sep 2018

The Assemblage Structure And Trophic Ecology Of A Deep-Pelagic Fish Family (Platytroctidae) In The Gulf Of Mexico, Michael Novotny

HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations

Members of the family Platytroctidae (tubeshoulders) are found throughout the meso- and bathypelagic waters of the World Ocean. Due to the lack of specimens collected globally, this taxon has received little attention, despite recent evidence suggesting its predominance in the bathypelagic biome. Prior to this study, only four species had been reported in the Gulf of Mexico’s (GoM) highly diverse deep-pelagic ecosystem. An extensive meso- and bathypelagic trawl series in the GoM allowed a detailed examination of this family, which included analyses of species composition, abundance, vertical distribution, sex ratios, and trophic ecology. A total of 16 species were collected, …

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Using Self-Organizing Maps As A Forecasting Tool, Andrea Honor Sep 2018

Using Self-Organizing Maps As A Forecasting Tool, Andrea Honor

Theses and Dissertations

Some extreme weather events, such as the early season heavy snow and cold weather outbreak of early November 2014, can be traced back to the influence of tropical or extratropical cyclones on the planetary scale flow. Such planetary scale reorganization also occurs in conjunction with serial extratropical cyclogenesis. Potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause (defined by the 2 PVU surface) allows for a dynamically compact characterization of the flow. NCEP Climate Forecast Systems Reanalysis data spanning 32 years are used to provide this measure, and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) are then constructed to identify our atmospheric regimes. Key elements of this …

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Impacts Of Climate Extremes On Terrestrial Productivity, Suhua Wei Sep 2018

Impacts Of Climate Extremes On Terrestrial Productivity, Suhua Wei

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Terrestrial biosphere absorbs approximately 28% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This terrestrial carbon sink might become saturated in a future climate regime. To explore the issues associated with this topic, an accurate estimate of gross primary production (GPP) of global terrestrial ecosystems is needed. A major uncertainty in modeling global terrestrial GPP is the parameter of light use efficiency (LUE). Most LUE estimates in global models are satellite-based and coarsely measured with emphasis on environmental variables. Others are from eddy covariance towers with much greater spatial and temporal data quality and emphasis on mechanistic processes, but in a limited number …

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Quantifying The Effects Of Wind Regimes And Temperature On Surface Melt Over The Antarctic Peninsula (1982–2017) Through Modeling, Remote Sensing And In-Situ Data, Rajashree Datta Sep 2018

Quantifying The Effects Of Wind Regimes And Temperature On Surface Melt Over The Antarctic Peninsula (1982–2017) Through Modeling, Remote Sensing And In-Situ Data, Rajashree Datta

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Surface melting over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) plays a crucial role for the stability of ice shelves and dynamics of grounded ice, hence modulating the mass balance in a region of the world which is particularly sensitive to increasing surface temperatures. Understanding the processes that drive melting using surface energy and mass balance models is fundamental to improving estimates of current and future surface melting and associated sea level rise through ice-shelf collapse. This is even more important in view of the specific challenges presented by how circulation patterns over the topographically-complex Antarctic Peninsula, especially foehn winds, impact surface melt. …

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The Periglacial Landscape Of Mars: Insight Into The 'Decameter-Scale Rimmed Depressions' In Utopia Planitia, Arya Bina Aug 2018

The Periglacial Landscape Of Mars: Insight Into The 'Decameter-Scale Rimmed Depressions' In Utopia Planitia, Arya Bina

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Currently, Mars appears to be in a ‘frozen’ and ‘dry’ state, with the clear majority of the planet’s surface maintaining year-round sub-zero temperatures. However, the discovery of features consistent with landforms found in periglacial environments on Earth, suggests a climate history for Mars that may have involved freeze and thaw cycles. Such landforms include hummocky, polygonised, scalloped, and pitted terrains, as well as ice-rich deposits and gullies, along the mid- to high-latitude bands, typically with no lower than 20o N/S. The detection of near-surface and surface ice via the Phoenix lander, excavation of ice via recent impact cratering activity as …

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The Effects Of Density Gradients On The Distribution And Behavior Of Copepods, Connor Cayson Aug 2018

The Effects Of Density Gradients On The Distribution And Behavior Of Copepods, Connor Cayson

Theses

Observations of fine-scale behavioral dynamics of zooplankton may shed insight into much larger-scale ecosystem patterns and phenomena. Some zooplankton, such as copepods, are known to aggregate near density gradients; however, it is not clear the extent to which density gradients alone affect copepod distribution and behavior, since these gradients are often associated with phytoplankton layers. In this study, we investigated the behavior of Calanus pacificus in response to salinity gradients through laboratory experiments observed with high-resolution video and analyzed using computational techniques. Image data were collected using two cameras recording continuously for a duration of 30 minutes or more, allowing …

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Environmental Controls On Depositional Patterns Of Isolated Carbonate Platforms, Jeremy M. Kerr Aug 2018

Environmental Controls On Depositional Patterns Of Isolated Carbonate Platforms, Jeremy M. Kerr

HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation explores the influence of the environment on the lateral spatial patterning of facies in modern isolated carbonate platforms through six studies. The first study describes the creation of a database of benthic habitat and bathymetric maps derived from multispectral satellite imagery and the field data used calibrate and validate the mapping algorithms. The second study develops and assesses a new approach for remotely-deriving water depth from multispectral satellite imagery without the need for ground-truth information. The third study identifies a criterion for distinguishing between facies belts and mosaics and deploys the criterion to investigate the co-occurrence of these …

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Physical And Chemical Response Of Small, North Temperate Lakes To Recovery From Acidification And Climate Change, Amanda Gavin Aug 2018

Physical And Chemical Response Of Small, North Temperate Lakes To Recovery From Acidification And Climate Change, Amanda Gavin

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

As the rate of sulfate (SO42-) deposition continues to decline and climate is trending towards warmer and wetter conditions, the biogeochemical and physical response of small, north temperate lakes is variable. In this study, we observed long-term chemical trends combined with seasonal water temperature patterns in the context of climate change and recovery from acidification in two remote lake populations in Maine: 29 high elevation lakes and eight low elevation lakes. Small, temperate lakes are the most abundant type of lake, making them a widely representative study sample to consider. Maine’s high elevation lakes (>600m) could potentially provide unique …

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Preventing Extinction Of At-Risk Plant Species In A Complex World, Holly Lee Bernardo Aug 2018

Preventing Extinction Of At-Risk Plant Species In A Complex World, Holly Lee Bernardo

Arts & Sciences Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Earthճ current biodiversity crisis is now considered a true mass extinction event, with species level extinction rates well above background rates and population level extinction rates orders of magnitude more common that species extinctions. There are many threats driving this loss of biodiversity. How each threat impacts the viability of a species is highly context dependent, but all are anthropogenic in origin and so as the human population continues to increase, so too will the pressure of these threats on our natural systems. Ultimately, how much a threat decreases the viability of a species depends on how that threat influences …

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Genomic Analysis Of Acropora Cervicornis Mucus And Sediments In The Florida Keys Tavernier Nursery, Rachel Zimmerman Aug 2018

Genomic Analysis Of Acropora Cervicornis Mucus And Sediments In The Florida Keys Tavernier Nursery, Rachel Zimmerman

HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations

White Band disease has devastated the staghorn coral Acropora cervicornis in recent decades, and it continues to impinge upon restoration efforts. The etiological agent(s) remain unknown as Koch’s postulates have yet to be satisfied, but disease may originate when opportunistic pathogens in the surface mucus layer exploit a stressed host. Using 16s rRNA sequencing, differences in the taxonomic diversity and relative abundances of bacteria within the mucus of A. cervicornis were documented between colonies of the same genotype, genotypes (n=8) categorized as having either high or low WBD susceptibility, and during a transplantation event. A. cervicornis colonies suspended from midwater …

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Using Local Fishery Monitoring To Understand Small-Scale Coastal Fisheries In Tanzania, Matthew Robertson Aug 2018

Using Local Fishery Monitoring To Understand Small-Scale Coastal Fisheries In Tanzania, Matthew Robertson

LSU Master's Theses

Nearshore marine fisheries provide the main source of protein for nearly 9 million people in the coastal villages of Tanzania, yet for decades the fisheries have shown signs of overexploitation. These fisheries are small-scale and co-managed by local coastal communities in groups known as Beach Management Units (BMUs). BMUs monitor individual fishing trip data (e.g. gear, vessel, taxa); however, these data have only been analyzed in nationally aggregated statistics and to our knowledge, are not presently used in management decision making. The present thesis aimed to identify the forms of data and information that local fishery monitoring can record about …

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Next Generation Sequencing Methods For Coastal Zone Water Quality Monitoring, Catherine Iskrenko Aug 2018

Next Generation Sequencing Methods For Coastal Zone Water Quality Monitoring, Catherine Iskrenko

HCNSO Student Capstones

When analyzing the water quality of the coastal zone, culture-based techniques have been utilized most often to identify Fecal Indicator Bacteria in samples. Since the advent of the Sanger Method for DNA sequencing, other techniques have arisen that provide significantly more information on the microorganisms in sample, but they are still not the mainstream for water quality analysis. This capstone reviews and compares culture-based techniques, DNA sequencing, RNA sequencing, qPCR for biomarker, and 16S rDNA sequencing to highlight their merits and shortcomings for analyzing environmental water samples. The technique presented that provides the broadest range of information (including the identification …

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Development Of Large-Scale Unstructured Grid Storm Surge And Sub-Grid Inundation Models For Coastal Applications, Zhuo Liu Aug 2018

Development Of Large-Scale Unstructured Grid Storm Surge And Sub-Grid Inundation Models For Coastal Applications, Zhuo Liu

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

Storm surge and inundation induced by hurricanes and nor'easters pose a profound threat to coastal communities and ecosystems. These storm events with powerful winds, heavy precipitation, and strong wind waves can lead to major flooding for cities along U.S. Coasts. Recent examples of Hurricane Irene (2011) in North Carolina and Virginia and Hurricane Sandy (2012) in New York City not only demonstrated the immense destructive power by the storms, but also revealed the obvious, crucial need for improved forecasting of storm tide and inundation. in part I, a large-scale unstructured-grid 3-D barotropic storm tide model SCHISM (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated …

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A Comparison Of Benthic Habitats And Faunas Between The Miami Terrace (Proposed Calypso Pipeline Site) And The Pourtales Terrace (Coral Habitat Of Particular Concern), Laura Dell Aug 2018

A Comparison Of Benthic Habitats And Faunas Between The Miami Terrace (Proposed Calypso Pipeline Site) And The Pourtales Terrace (Coral Habitat Of Particular Concern), Laura Dell

HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations

Quantitative photographs of benthic communities at two northern Miami Terrace sites, originally investigated as part of an environmental impact survey in advance of the proposed Calypso pipeline, and two Pourtalès Terrace sites, investigated as part of an exploration of deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems (DSCEs) within the Pourtalès Terrace Deep-water Coral Habitat Area of Particular Concern (CHAPC), were reanalyzed and compared for similarities and differences. Both terraces are part of an elongated lithified platform that parallels the southeastern Florida coast at depths averaging between 250 and 450 m. Although both sites have similar geological origins and lie under the Florida …

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Meta-Analytic Summary Of Parasites And Diseases Of Elasmobranchs Found In Florida Waters, Alexis S. Modzelesky Aug 2018

Meta-Analytic Summary Of Parasites And Diseases Of Elasmobranchs Found In Florida Waters, Alexis S. Modzelesky

HCNSO Student Capstones

Elasmobranchs have conservational and commercial importance. There is a need for a more complete understanding of their health, due to their ability to shape trophic webs and their money-making potential with fishers and ecotourists. Sharks have been known to influence the strength of food webs, including reef ecosystems where many fish species are harvested for food. The investigation of pathogenic agents and diseases in elasmobranchs has been biased to favor those natural enemies that inhabit the digestive system and epidermal surfaces. Certain groups of parasites such as cestodes, copepods, and monogeneans, were most often recorded in this study. The bacterial …

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Impact Of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation On Water Quality In Cache Slough Complex, Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta: A Numerical Modeling Study, Xun Cai Aug 2018

Impact Of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation On Water Quality In Cache Slough Complex, Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta: A Numerical Modeling Study, Xun Cai

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) plays a significant role in many aquatic systems, and impacts both physical and ecological quantities. It can baffle currents, attenuate waves, recycle nitrogen and phosphorus from the sediment bed, perform ecosystem function as a primary producer, and provide critical habitat for many aquatic species. Conversely, the invasive SAV, Egeria densa (Brazilian waterweed), in the San Francisco Bay & Delta has been a nuisance since its introduction into the system in the 1960s. It has displaced most of the native submersed aquatic plant species in the Delta and restructured the ecosystem, thus threatening the survival of several …

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Bubble Stream Production By Belugas (Delphinapterus Leucas), Megan Slack Aug 2018

Bubble Stream Production By Belugas (Delphinapterus Leucas), Megan Slack

Theses

Bubble stream production in belugas has been poorly characterized and its function is not well understood. I examined behavioral states when producing bubble streams (“bubbling”), and when bubbling calls, to determine whether bubbling was significantly associated with a particular call category or behavioral state. Using 19 hours of video and audio recordings collected over a two-day period, I quantified bubble streams of a 4-month old calf and an unrelated adult female housed together. Based on the overall activity budgets and pool of vocalizations for both animals, I calculated the expected counts of bubble streams with and without vocalizations, assuming that …

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Assessment Of Snow Atmosphere Forcing During Central Idaho Atmospheric Rivers, William Rudisill Aug 2018

Assessment Of Snow Atmosphere Forcing During Central Idaho Atmospheric Rivers, William Rudisill

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are globally occuring weather features and the primary mechanism through which water vapor moves from the tropics and subtropics towards the mid-latitudes, doing so at rates comparable to the world’s largest terrestrial rivers. AR that encounter mountains often cause extreme precipitation in the form of rain and snow, high winds, and flooding in many watersheds. They account for as much as 20-30% of cool season precipitation in the central Idaho Mountains. In the Northern Hemisphere, seasonal snow cover during Winter and Spring months is the most variable land surface component in space and time, and acts on …

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Developing A Probabilistic Heavy-Rainfall Guidance Forecast Model For Great Lakes Cities, Cory Kevin Rothstein Aug 2018

Developing A Probabilistic Heavy-Rainfall Guidance Forecast Model For Great Lakes Cities, Cory Kevin Rothstein

Theses and Dissertations

A method for predicting the probability of exceeding specific warm-season (April-October) 0-24 hour precipitation thresholds is developed based upon daily maximums of meteorological parameters. North American Regional Reanalysis and Daily Unified Precipitation data from 2002-2017 were used to gather meteorological data for the Milwaukee and Chicago County Warning Areas. Individual artificial neural networks and multiple logistic regressions were conducted for daily rainfall thresholds above 0.5'', 1'', 1.5'' and 2'' to determine the probability of threshold exceedances for each County Warning Area. The most important parameters were 1000-500 hPa specific humidity, vertical velocities at various levels, high cloud cover, precipitable water …

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