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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantifying Seasonal And Annual Precipitation Variability On San Salvador Island, Bahamas Using Surface Observations And Satellite Estimates., John Bryson Wells
Quantifying Seasonal And Annual Precipitation Variability On San Salvador Island, Bahamas Using Surface Observations And Satellite Estimates., John Bryson Wells
Theses and Dissertations
San Salvador Island is a small Bahamian island located in the subtropics just north of the Tropic of Cancer. Due to its subtropical location, the island is influenced by both mid-latitude and tropical weather patterns. These weather patterns vary in scale from localized convective uplift to synoptic-scale systems. This study compares satellite-derived estimates of precipitation and rain gauge observations from June 2019 through September 2021 to evaluate the relationship between the two datasets. This study then uses the satellite-derived estimates of precipitation over a 20-year period to quantify annual and seasonal variability in precipitation on San Salvador. Corroborating past research, …
Developing A Probabilistic Heavy-Rainfall Guidance Forecast Model For Great Lakes Cities, Cory Kevin Rothstein
Developing A Probabilistic Heavy-Rainfall Guidance Forecast Model For Great Lakes Cities, Cory Kevin Rothstein
Theses and Dissertations
A method for predicting the probability of exceeding specific warm-season (April-October) 0-24 hour precipitation thresholds is developed based upon daily maximums of meteorological parameters. North American Regional Reanalysis and Daily Unified Precipitation data from 2002-2017 were used to gather meteorological data for the Milwaukee and Chicago County Warning Areas. Individual artificial neural networks and multiple logistic regressions were conducted for daily rainfall thresholds above 0.5'', 1'', 1.5'' and 2'' to determine the probability of threshold exceedances for each County Warning Area. The most important parameters were 1000-500 hPa specific humidity, vertical velocities at various levels, high cloud cover, precipitable water …
Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based On The Mrf Ensemble, Frederick Anthony Eckel
Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based On The Mrf Ensemble, Frederick Anthony Eckel
Theses and Dissertations
Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF) based on the medium range forecast (MRF) ensemble are currently in operational use below their full potential quality (i.e., accuracy and reliability). This unfulfilled potential is due to the MRF ensemble being adversely affected by systematic errors which arise from an imperfect model and less than ideal ensemble initial perturbations. This thesis sought to construct a calibration to account for these systematic errors and thus produce higher quality PQPF. Systematic errors were explored with the use of the verification rank histogram, which tracks the performance of the ensemble. The information in these histograms was then …
A Comparison Of Advect Cloud Model And Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model Total Fractional Cloud Forecasts, Brian D. Pukall
A Comparison Of Advect Cloud Model And Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model Total Fractional Cloud Forecasts, Brian D. Pukall
Theses and Dissertations
Total fractional cloudiness (FC) forecasts from the advect cloud (ADVCLD) model and total FC forecasts diagnosed from the relative humidity and total cloud condensate (snow, ice, rain water, and cloud water) fields from the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) were statistically and subjectively compared to determine which model produced the better total FC forecasts from August through November 1997 for a forecast window centered on Bosnia. The real time nephanalysis (RTNFPH) model was used to represent the true state of the atmosphere. ADVCLD and MM5 forecasts were also compared against a persistence forecast to provide a minimal skill baseline. The …