Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Seasonal Variability And Predictability Of Monsoon Precipitation In Southern Africa, Matthew F. Horan, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq

Faculty Publications

Rainfed agriculture is the mainstay of economies across Southern Africa (SA), where most precipitation is received during the austral summer monsoon. This study aims to further our understanding of monsoon precipitation predictability over SA. We use three natural climate forcings, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indian Ocean Precipitation Dipole (IOPD)—the dominant precipitation variability mode—to construct an empirical model that exhibits significant skill over SA during monsoon in explaining precipitation variability and in forecasting it with a five-month lead. While most explained precipitation variance (50%–75%) comes from contemporaneous IOD and IOPD, preconditioning all three forcings is key …

Ocean Temperatures Do Not Account For A Record-Setting Winter In The U.S. West, Matthew D. Laplante, Liping Deng, Luthiene Dalanhese, Shih-Yu Wang

Journalism and Communication Faculty Publications

The record-setting winter of 2022–2023 came as an answer to both figurative and literal prayers for political leaders, policy makers, and water managers reliant on snowpacks in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a vital source of water for tens of millions of people across the Western United States. But this “drought-busting” winter was not well-predicted, in part because while interannual patterns of tropical ocean temperatures have a well-known relationship to precipitation patterns across much of the American West, the Upper Colorado is part of a liminal region where these connections tend to be comparatively weak. Using historical sea surface temperature …

Using Phenology To Unravel Differential Soil Water Use And Productivity In A Semiarid Savanna, Blake Steiner, Russell L. Scott, Jia Hu, Natasha Mcbean, Andrew Richardson, David J. P. Moore

University Administration Publications

Savannas are water-limited ecosystems characterized by two dominant plant types: trees and an understory primarily made up grass. Different phenology and root structures of these plant types complicate how savanna primary productivity responds to changes in water availability. We tested the hypothesis that productivity in savannas is controlled by the temporal and vertical distribution of soil water content (SWC) and differences in growing season length of understory and tree plant functional types. To quantify the relationship between tree, understory, and savanna-wide phenology and productivity, we used PhenoCam and satellite observations surrounding an eddy covariance tower at a semiarid savanna site …

Precipitation Variability And Predictability Over The Arabian Peninsula, Central Southwest Asia, And Southern Africa, Matthew Francis Horan

Doctoral Dissertations

The Northern Hemisphere winter is the main rainy season for the Arabian Peninsula (AP), Central Southwest Asia (CSWA), and Southern Africa (SF), where precipitation predictability is limited or understudied. This dissertation research focuses on improving our understanding of these regions' wet-season precipitation characteristics and predictability.

First, I have identified the AP's key moisture sources through a Lagrangian back-trajectory algorithm. Mid-latitude land and water bodies, such as the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas, are the primary moisture sources in the northern region. Areas further south rely on moisture transport from the Western Indian Ocean and the African continent. A significant drying trend …

Atmospheric Impacts From The 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, Charles Philip Johnson

LSU Master's Theses

Although the ecological devastations induced by an oil spill are well studied, the hydrometeorological impacts from a long-term slick have gone unnoticed. The ocean-surface alterations stemming from the lasting oil footprint increase solar radiation absorption which in turn alters the surface pressure and moisture gradients and wind speeds thereby influencing precipitation surrounding the oil spill. Revealing the potential impacts from these could better aid in the safety of crews cleaning spills and provide a better understanding of how humans alter the landscape. This thesis examines the changes in local hydrometeorology brought on by the 2010 summer Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil …

Hydroclimate Effects On Great Salt Lake Decline Since 1980, Siiri Joy Bigalke

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

As a terminal basin lake, the Great Salt Lake (GSL) is known to act as a barometer for low frequency climate variability for the Western United States. As thus, there are naturally occurring large changes to GSL elevation levels that vary on time scales from years to decades. However, amongst these naturally occurring interannual changes there has been a significant declining trend in the elevation levels since a string of anomalous pluvial years in the early 1980s. In the summer of 2022, the Great Salt Lake reached its lowest levels in recorded history, which coincided with a two-decades long regional …

Storm In A Glass Lesson Plan, Admin Stem For Success

STEM for Success Showcase

Lesson Plan and Video Demonstration for the "Storm in a Glass" Activity, which teaches students about precipitation.

Timing And Magnitude Of Drought Impacts On Carbon Uptake Across A Grassland Biome, Andrew Felton, Gregory R. Goldsmith

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Although drought is known to negatively impact grassland functioning, the timing and magnitude of these impacts within a growing season remains unresolved. Previous small-scale assessments indicate grasslands may only respond to drought during narrow periods within a year; however, large-scale assessments are now needed to uncover the general patterns and determinants of this timing. We combined remote sensing datasets of gross primary productivity and weather to assess the timing and magnitude of grassland responses to drought at 5 km² temporal resolution across two expansive ecoregions of the western US Great Plains biome: the C₄-dominated shortgrass steppe and …

The Response Of Sea Ice And High-Salinity Shelf Water In The Ross Ice Shelf Polynya To Cyclonic Atmosphere Circulations, Xiaoqiao Wang, Zhaoru Zhang, Michael S. Dinniman, Petteri Uotila, Xichen Li, Meng Zhou

CCPO Publications

Coastal polynyas in the Ross Sea are important source regions of high-salinity shelf water (HSSW) – the precursor of Antarctic Bottom Water that supplies the lower limb of the thermohaline circulation. Here, the response of sea ice production and HSSW formation to synoptic-scale and mesoscale cyclones was investigated for the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya (RISP) using a coupled ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model targeted on the Ross Sea. When synoptic-scale cyclones prevailed over RISP, sea ice production (SIP) increased rapidly by 20 %–30 % over the entire RISP. During the passage of mesoscale cyclones, SIP increased by about 2 times over …

Precipitation Recorded In The Turkana Basin From 2005 To 2022., Acacia Leakey, Greg Henkes, Mae Saslaw, Dino Martins

Geosciences Research Data

This is a dataset of precipitation recorded at three sites in northern Kenya near Lake Turkana using standard rain gauges. The data was recorded at the Koobi Fora Research Station (3.947736, 36.186166) from March 2003 until 2006, at the Turkana Basin Institute’s Ileret facility (4.28510, 36.262158) from 2006 to 2022 and at the Turkana Basin Institute’s Turkwel facility (3.140825, 35.864599) from 2012 to 2022. The data was collected manually by TBI staff observing gradation lines on the collectors following rainfall events and recorded as a single total for each 24 hour period.

An Integrative Salt Marsh Conceptual Framework For Global Comparisons, Erik S. Yando, Scott F. Jones, W. Ryan James, Denise D. Colombano, Diana I. Montemayor, Stefanie Nolte, Jacqueline L. Raw, Shelby L. Ziegler, Luzhen Chen, Daniele Daffonchio, Marco Fusi, Kerrylee Rogers, Liudmila Sergienko

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Salt marshes occur globally across climatic and coastal settings, providing key linkages between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, salt marsh science lacks a unifying conceptual framework; consequently, historically well-studied locations have been used as normative benchmarks. To allow for more effective comparisons across the diversity of salt marshes, we developed an integrative salt marsh conceptual framework. We review ecosystem-relevant drivers from global to local spatial scales, integrate these multi-scale settings into a framework, and provide guidance on applying the framework using specific variables on 11 global examples. Overall, this framework allows for appropriate comparison of study sites by accounting for …

Analysis Of Precipitation Reversals Over The State Of Arkansas, Mallory Hoff

Crop, Soil and Environmental Sciences Undergraduate Honors Theses

Recent studies have examined hydroclimate precipitation reversals, but because it is a newly defined concept, there is minimal research available on how reversals are changing, and it has not been widely investigated. Precipitation reversal is the rapid switch between wet and dry periods or “precipitation extremes and the opposite” (McKay, 2018), based on precipitation measurements in this case. A single reversal is the immediate transition from a wet to a dry period or from a dry to a wet period. Changes in reversals have not been thoroughly reported and this gap in research creates a risk of unpredictable conditions that …

Prediction Of Cultivation Areas For The Commercial And An Early Flowering Wild Accession Of Salvia Hispanica L. In The United States, Mohammad Hassani, Thomas Piechota, Hagop S. Atamian

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Salvia hispanica L., commonly known as chia, is a plant-based alternative to seafood and is rich in heart-healthy omega-3 fatty acid, protein, fiber, and antioxidants. In the Northern Hemisphere, chia flowering is triggered by the fall equinox (12-h light and dark, early October) and the seeds mature after approximately three months. Chia is sensitive to frost and end of season moisture which limits its cultivation to small areas in regions with temperate climate. The U.S. chia import has increased considerably over the years; however, chia is not widely cultivated in the United States. This study used the historical U.S. temperature …

Climatology Of Rainfall Distribution And Asymmetries Of Tropical Cyclones: A Global Perspective, Oscar Guzman Rey

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Estimating the magnitude of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall at different landfalling states is an important aspect of the TC forecast that directly affects the level of response from emergency managers in coastal areas. This research analyses the spatial distribution of the rainfall magnitude in tropical cyclones (TCs) at different stages over global oceans. The research’s central hypothesis is that TC rainfall exhibits distinct features in the long-term satellite dataset due to the evolution of the spatial distribution, radial variation, and asymmetries at the stages before, during, and after landfall. The resulting patterns are analyzed through a statistical approach that takes …

Understanding Coastal And Inland Hydrometeorological Hazards Produced By Extratropical And Tropical Cyclones Along The East Coast Of The United States, Katherine Towey

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

As global temperatures continue to rise, the effects of anthropogenic climate change will impact the magnitude and frequency of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flooding events. If we want to accurately predict changes in these flooding events, we need to fully understand them in the current climate. As such, this research examines the relationship between hydrometeorological hazards and the characteristics of the storm types, such as extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and tropical cyclones (TCs), that produce such hazards. Through the use of observational and reanalysis data, the work herein utilizes a cyclone-hazard association algorithm and extreme value analysis to assess the extent, …

Small-Scale Variability In Warm Season, Precipitation Around An Urban Area: A Case Study Of Louisville-Jefferson County, Ky., Isaiah I. Kingsberry

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Numerous studies have detected anomalous precipitation patterns occurring up to 50 km downwind of major cities, providing major evidence that cities inadvertently modify precipitation and atmospheric circulations. Louisville is one such major city with a growing body of evidence of inadvertent precipitation modification. Despite these efforts, the physical mechanisms driving small-scale and unintentional changes in urban precipitation are little understood, being rooted largely in theory rather than in physical observations. This study seeks to build upon previous research by analyzing ground-based precipitation observations recorded by a high-density gauge network located within approximately 40 km of Louisville’s urban center. The results …

Atlantic Ocean Variability And European Alps Winter Precipitation, Giuseppe Formetta, Jonghun Kam, Sahar Sadeghi, Glenn Tootle, Thomas Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Winter precipitation (snowpack) in the European Alps provides a critical source of freshwater to major river basins such as the Danube, Rhine, and Po. Previous research identified Atlantic Ocean variability and hydrologic responses in the European Alps. The research presented here evaluates Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and European Alps winter precipitation variability using Singular Value Decomposition. Regions in the north and mid-Atlantic from the SSTs were identified as being tele-connected with winter precipitation in the European Alps. Indices were generated for these Atlantic SST regions to use in prediction of precipitation. Regression and non-parametric models were developed using the …

Remote Ocean Forcing On Interannual-To-Decadal Climate Variability Through Inter-Basin Interactions, Zachary F. Johnson

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

This dissertation explores the connection between ocean basins through the atmosphere by employing observational data analyses and a climate modeling approach. Sea surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific, known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, can influence worldwide weather and sea surface temperatures in other ocean basins. For instance, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures can impact the Atlantic and Indian Oceans through airflow changes along the equator. However, Atlantic and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature changes can also influence the tropical Pacific through similar processes. Therefore, it is challenging to identify the mechanisms of these remote connections between ocean …

Stony Brook Radar Observatory Radar Data For February 20, 2019, Mariko Oue

SoMAS Research Data

Stony Brook Radar Observatory (SBRO) has been in operation since March in 2017 (-73.127E, 40.897N, https://you.stonybrook.edu/radar/). The flagship radar of SBRO is a very sensitive, sophisticated, and well-calibrated Ka-band (35-GHz) scanning fully-polarimetric radar (KASPR). The radar measurements are complemented by two profiling radar systems operating at W-band (94-GHz, ROGER) and K-band (24-GHz, MRRPro). KASPR, ROGER, and MRRPro at SBRO collected triple frequency data during a snow event on February 20, 2019. Analyses of dual wavelength ratio, mean vertical Doppler velocity, and polarimetric radar variables from the triple frequency measurements can be used to identify ice particle types, distinguish among …

Stony Brook Radar Observatory Radar And Lidar Data For February 25, 2020, Mariko Oue, Katia Lamer

SoMAS Research Data

Observations collected during the 25-February-2020 deployment of the Vapor In-Cloud Profiling Radar at the Stony Brook Radar Observatory clearly demonstrate the potential of G-band radars for cloud and precipitation research. The field experiment, which coordinated an X-, Ka, W-and G-band radar, revealed that the differential reflectivity from Ka-G-band pair provides larger signals than the traditional Ka-W pairing underpinning an increased sensitivity to smaller amounts of liquid and ice water mass and sizes. The data include:

1) Vapor In-Cloud Profiling Radar (VIPR) collected on 24-26 February 2020

2) W-band profiling radar (ROGER) collected on 25 February 2020

3) Ka-band Scanning Polarimetric …

The Effect Of Barometric Pressure, Temperature, And Precipitation On Preterm Labor In Expecting Women In South Carolina, Allison K. Fletcher

Journal of the South Carolina Academy of Science

Each year, approximately 9.9% of infants in the United States are born prematurely at less than 37 weeks of gestation with unidentified causes. From 2014 to 2016, the total preterm birth rate rose 3%, and late preterm birth rates rose almost 4%. One source of preterm labor that has been examined in recent years is its potential correlation with meteorological phenomena, including barometric pressure, temperature, and precipitation. In September of 2019, birth data recording 322 deliveries from two South Carolina hospitals was collected along with weather data on the given dates. The changes in temperature, barometric pressure, and precipitation for …

Quantification Of Climate Variability And Extreme Events In The Great Plains, Angelinah Ntsieng Rasoeu

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Climate variability and extreme events continue to worsen resulting in significant impacts to society and the environment. Quantifying precipitation variability, streamflow, and extreme events at local scale is crucial for local planning and management due to spatial and temporal precipitation variability which influences streamflow and thus, water resources. This study uses statistical tools to analyze 1895-2019 (125 years) of historical precipitation data to examine how long-term precipitation varies annually, seasonally, and monthly, and create climate classifications. The results show that annual precipitation is increasing linearly over time ranging from 13.2 in (1976) to 43.1 in (2010) and 5 climate classes …

Analysis Of Uncertainty In Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasts, Carolien N. Mossel

Dissertations and Theses

Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting has great potential for improving flood predictions and use in water management systems, however, the amount of data used and created with an ensemble forecast requires a careful and intentional approach to understand how useful and skillful the forecast is. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) was run using downscaled NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) meteorological forcings for the 2016-2017 wet season (October-March) in California to create an 11-member hydrologic forecast ensemble. To evaluate the performance of these ensemble forecasts, we chose to study streamflow sites within Sonoma County, California, a rain-dominated region which includes the …

Response Of Deep Aquifers To Climate Variability, Karem Fathy Abdelgaber Abdelmohsen

Dissertations

Our recent analysis of Temporal Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) solutions over the largest aquifer system in Africa (the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System: NSAS) revealed that while the response of deep aquifers to climatic variations remains a relatively slow process that takes thousands to tens of thousands of years, there is a much faster response in aquifers that are characterized by dense networks of faults, fractures and karst as is the case with the NSAS. This rapid groundwater flow, when it occurs, is detected as an increase in GRACE_TWS over areas downgradient and distant (hundreds of km) from …

Evaluation Of Daily Precipitation From The Era5 Global Reanalysis Against Ghcn Observations In The Northeastern United States, Caitlin C. Crossett, Alan K. Betts, Lesley Ann L. Dupigny-Giroux, Arne Bomblies

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Precipitation is a primary input for hydrologic, agricultural, and engineering models, so making accurate estimates of it across the landscape is critically important. While the distribution of in-situ measurements of precipitation can lead to challenges in spatial interpolation, gridded precipitation information is designed to produce a full coverage product. In this study, we compare daily precipitation accumulations from the ERA5 Global Reanalysis (hereafter ERA5) and the US Global Historical Climate Network (hereafter GHCN) across the northeastern United States. We find that both the distance from the Atlantic Coast and elevation difference between ERA5 estimates and GHCN …

Characterizing El Niño-Southern Oscillation Effects On The Blue Nile Yield And The Nile River Basin Precipitation Using Empirical Mode Decomposition, Justin A. Le, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Allali, Eman Sayed, Hani Sweliem, Thomas C. Piechota, Daniele C. Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Using new mathematical and data-driven techniques, we propose new indices to measure and predict the strength of different El Niño events and how they affect regions like the Nile River Basin (NRB). Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), when applied to Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), yields three Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) tracking recognizable and physically significant non-stationary processes. The aim is to characterize underlying signals driving ENSO as reflected in SOI, and show that those signals also meaningfully affect other physical processes with scientific and predictive utility. In the end, signals are identified which have a strong statistical relationship with various physical …

Correlation Analysis Of Precipitation And River Flow With The Injection And Discharge Of The Three Gorges Dam And Reservoir, Lirong Yin

LSU Master's Theses

The Yangtze River has been the primary support of the resources and transportation of China. Its basin covers an area of 1.8 million square kilometers. The Three Gorges Dam and Reservoir on the Yangtze River is one of the world's largest dams. After the dam construction in 1997, the reservoir started injecting the reservoir to a size of over 600 km². The influence caused by the dam and reservoir on the river system has been overwhelming and destructive. The possible influence of this vast water body and the operation to maintain this waterbody's size and water level on …

Increased Drought Severity Tracks Warming In The United States’ Largest River Basin, Justin T. Martin, Gregory T. Pederson, Connie A. Woodhouse, Edward R. Cook, Gregory J. Mccabe, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Erika K. Wise, Patrick J. Erger, Larry Dolan, Marketa Mcguire, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Katherine J. Chase, Jeremy S. Litell, Stephen T. Gray, Scott St. George, Jonathan M. Friedman, David J. Sauchyn, Jeannine-Marie St-Jacques, John King

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring–based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has …

A Pilot Experiment To Replace Missing Rainfall Events Using Soil Moisture Information From The Kansas Mesonet, N. Parker, A. Patrignani

Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station Research Reports

The Kansas Mesonet is a state-of-the-art environmental monitoring network that provides accurate rainfall measurements across Kansas. However, missing rainfall records are common problems in weather stations that rely on tipping bucket rain gauges. In this study, we conducted a pilot experiment to estimate missing rainfall records from root-zone soil moisture information recorded at Kansas Mesonet stations. Soil moisture is recorded at depths of 5, 10, 20, and 50 cm using the Campbell Scien­tific CS655 soil water reflectometer. Hourly rainfall and soil moisture data from mid- August 2017 to mid-May 2018 were taken from three stations (Lakin, Manhattan, and Hays) of …

Comparative Assessment Of Downscaling Methods And Application Towards Analysis Of Climate Change Impact On Urban Regions, Markus Eichenbaum

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Global climate models (GCM) are sophisticated numerical models used to make long term climate projections. However, the resolution of their output is too coarse for climate change related local impact studies on urban regional scales. Downscaling efforts are taken to address this and increase GCM projection resolution. Physical Scaling (SP) downscaling methodology attempts to incorporate the physical basis of dynamical downscaling efforts with the computational efficiency of statistical methods. In this study, North American Regional Reanalysis surface skin temperature and precipitation data for a 1°x1° region centered on Houston, TX are downscaled to a resolution of 500m via SP and …