Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

A Bayesian Susceptible-Infectious-Hospitalized-Ventilated-Recovered Model To Predict Demand For Covid-19 Inpatient Care In A Large Healthcare System, Stella Coker Watson Self Ph.D., Ms, Rongjie Huang, Shrujan Amin, Joseph Ewing, Carolina Rudisill, Alexander C. Mclain Ph.D.

Faculty Publications

The COVID-19 pandemic has strained healthcare systems in many parts of the United States. During the early months of the pandemic, there was substantial uncertainty about whether the large number of COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization would exceed healthcare system capacity. This uncertainty created an urgent need to accurately predict the number of COVID-19 patients that would require inpatient and ventilator care at the local level. As the pandemic progressed, many healthcare systems relied on such predictions to prepare for COVID-19 surges and to make decisions regarding staffing, the discontinuation of elective procedures, and the amount of personal protective equipment (PPE) …

Quantile Differences In The Age-Related Decline In Cardiorespiratory Fitness Between Sexes In Adults Without Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus In The United States, Andrew Ortaglia, Melissa Stansbury, Michael David Wirth, Xuemei Sui, Matteo Bottai

Faculty Publications

Objective: To comprehensively assess the extent to which the decline in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) with age differs between sexes. Participants and Methods: This study used data from the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study, conducted between September 1974 and August 2006, consisting primarily of White adults from middle-to-upper socioeconomic strata restricted to adults without type 2 diabetes mellitus (33,742 men and 9,415 women). Quantile regression models were used to estimate the differences in age-associated changes in CRF between the sexes, estimated using a maximal treadmill test. Results: For adults aged up to 45 years, significant differences in slopes relating to age and …

Recognition And Screening For Chagas Disease In The Usa, Rachel Marcus, Andres F. Henao-Martinez, Melissa Nolan Ph.D., Mph, Elizabeth Livingston, Stephen A. Klotz, Robert H. Gilman, Monica Miranda-Schaeubinger, Sheba Meymandi

Faculty Publications

Chagas disease (CD), caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, is a public health concern, mainly among countries in South and Central America. However, despite the large number of immigrants from endemic countries living in the USA, awareness of CD is poor in the medical community, and therefore it is significantly underdiagnosed. To avoid the catastrophic cardiac complications of CD and to prevent maternal–fetal transmission, widespread educational programs highlighting the need for diagnosis are urgently needed.

Disparities In Meeting Uspstf Breast, Cervical, And Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines Among Women In The United States, Gabriel A. Benavidez, Anja Zgodic, Whitney E. Zahnd, Jan Marie Eberth

Faculty Publications

Introduction

Many sociodemographic factors affect women’s ability to meet cancer screening guidelines. Our objective was to examine which sociodemographic characteristics were associated with women meeting US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening.

Methods

We used 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to examine the association between sociodemographic variables, such as race/ethnicity, rurality, education, and insurance status, and self-reported cancer screening for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer. We used multivariable log-binomial regression models to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% CIs.

Results

Overall, the proportion of women meeting USPSTF guidelines for breast, cervical, …

Safety, Tolerability, And Pharmacokinetics Of Long-Acting Injectable Cabotegravir In Low-Risk Hiv-Uninfected Individuals: Hptn 077, A Phase 2a Randomized Controlled Trial., Raphael J Landovitz, Sue Li, Beatriz Grinsztejn, Halima Dawood, Albert Y Liu, Manya Magnus, Mina C Hosseinipour, Ravindre Panchia, Leslie Cottle, Gordon Chau, Paul Richardson, Mark A Marzinke, Craig W Hendrix, Susan H Eshleman, Yinfeng Zhang, Elizabeth Tolley, Jeremy Sugarman, Ryan Kofron, Adeola Adeyeye, David Burns, Alex R Rinehart, David Margolis, William R Spreen, Myron S Cohen, Marybeth Mccauley, Joseph J Eron

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Cabotegravir (CAB) is a novel strand-transfer integrase inhibitor being developed for HIV treatment and prevention. CAB is formulated both as an immediate-release oral tablet for daily administration and as a long-acting injectable suspension (long-acting CAB [CAB LA]) for intramuscular (IM) administration, which delivers prolonged plasma exposure to the drug after IM injection. HIV Prevention Trials Network study 077 (HPTN 077) evaluated the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of CAB LA in HIV-uninfected males and females at 8 sites in Brazil, Malawi, South Africa, and the United States.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: HPTN 077 was a double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2a trial. Healthy …

Tuberculosis And Risk Of Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis, Moises A. Huaman, Richard J. Kryscio, Carl J. Fichtenbaum, David Henson, Elizabeth G. Salt, Timothy R. Sterling, Beth A. Garvy

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

Several pathogens have been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Whether this occurs with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is unclear. We assessed if tuberculosis disease increased the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We identified patients with tuberculosis index claims from a large de-identified database of ~15 million adults enrolled in a U.S. commercial insurance policy between 2008 and 2010. Tuberculosis patients were 1:1 matched to patients without tuberculosis claims using propensity scores. We compared the occurrence of index AMI claims between the tuberculosis and non-tuberculosis cohorts using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox Proportional Hazard models. Data on 2026 patients with …

Self-Reported Sleep Apnea And Dementia Risk: Findings From The Prevention Of Alzheimer's Disease With Vitamin E And Selenium Trial, Xiuhua Ding, Richard J. Kryscio, Joshua Turner, Gregory A. Jicha, Gregory E. Cooper, Allison M. Caban-Holt, Frederick A. Schmitt, Erin L. Abner

Sanders-Brown Center on Aging Faculty Publications

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between baseline sleep apnea and risk of incident dementia in the Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease with Vitamin E and Selenium (PREADViSE) study and to explore whether the association depends on apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 allele status.

DESIGN: Secondary analysis based on data collected during PREADViSE.

SETTING: Participants were assessed at 128 local clinical study sites during the clinical trial phase and later were followed by telephone from a centralized location.

PARTICIPANTS: Men enrolled in PREADViSE (without dementia or other active neurological conditions that affect cognition such as major psychiatric disorders, including depression; N = …

Arsenic In Drinking Water And Lung Cancer Mortality In The United States: An Analysis Based On Us Counties And 30 Years Of Observation (1950-1979)., Hamid Ferdosi, Elisabeth K Dissen, Nana Ama Afari-Dwamena, Ji Li, Rusan Chen, Manning Feinleib, Steven H Lamm

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background. To examine whether the US EPA (2010) lung cancer risk estimate derived from the high arsenic exposures (10-934 µg/L) in southwest Taiwan accurately predicts the US experience from low arsenic exposures (3-59 µg/L). Methods. Analyses have been limited to US counties solely dependent on underground sources for their drinking water supply with median arsenic levels of ≥3 µg/L. Results. Cancer risks (slopes) were found to be indistinguishable from zero for males and females. The addition of arsenic level did not significantly increase the explanatory power of the models. Stratified, or categorical, analysis yielded relative risks that hover about 1.00. …

Effects Of Cost Sharing On Seeking Care For Serious And Minor Symptoms. Results Of A Randomized Controlled Trial, Martin Shapiro, John Ware, Cathy Sherbourne

Martin Shapiro

To estimate the effect of cost sharing on seeking care for serious and minor symptoms, we analyzed data for 3539 persons aged 17 to 61 from the Rand Health Insurance Experiment. Participants were randomly assigned to a free-care group or to insurance plans requiring them to pay part of the costs (cost-sharing group). Annual surveys were administered to determine if participants had serious and minor symptoms during the preceding month and whether they saw a physician. Serious symptoms were judged by a panel of physicians to warrant care in most instances; minor symptoms were judged neither to be severe nor …

Trends In The Prevalence And Mortality Of Cognitive Impairment In The United States: Is There Evidence Of A Compression Of Cognitive Morbidity, Kenneth Langa, Eric Larson, Jason Karlawish, David Cutler, Mohammed Kabeto, Scott Kim, Allison Rosen

Jason Karlawish

BACKGROUND: Recent medical, demographic, and social trends might have had an important impact on the cognitive health of older adults. To assess the impact of these multiple trends, we compared the prevalence and 2-year mortality of cognitive impairment (CI) consistent with dementia in the United States in 1993 to 1995 and 2002 to 2004. METHODS: We used data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative population-based longitudinal survey of U.S. adults. Individuals aged 70 years or older from the 1993 (N = 7,406) and 2002 (N = 7,104) waves of the HRS were included. CI was determined …

Striving For Cultural Competence In An Hiv Program: The Transformative Impact Of A Microsystem In A Larger Health Network, Judith N Sabino, Timothy Friel, Lynn Deitrick, Debbie Salas-Lopez

Debbie Salas-Lopez MD, MPH

No abstract provided.

Adjusting Medicare Capitation Payments Using Prior Hospitalization Data, Arlene Ash, Frank Porell, Leonard Gruenberg, Eric Sawitz, Alexa Beiser

Frank Porell

The diagnostic cost group approach to a reimbursement model for health maintenance organizations is presented. Diagnostic information about previous hospitalizations is used to create empirically determined risk groups, using only diagnoses involving little or no discretion in the decision to hospitalize. Diagnostic cost group and other models (including Medicare's current formula and other prior-use models) are tested for their ability to predict future costs, using R2 values and new measures of predictive performance. The diagnostic cost group models perform relatively well with respect to a range of criteria, including administrative feasibility, resistance to provider manipulation, and statistical accuracy.

A Comparison Of Spatio-Temporal Prediction Methods Of Cancer Incidence In The U.S, Michelle Hamlyn

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Cancer is the cause of one out of four deaths in the United States, and in 2009, researchers expected over 1.5 million new patients to be diagnosed with some form of cancer. People diagnosed with cancer, whether a common or rare type, need to undergo treatments, the amount and kind of which will depend on the severity of the cancer. So how do healthcare providers know how much funding is needed for treatment? What would better enable a pharmaceutical company to determine how much to allocate for research and development of drugs, the amount of each drug to manufacture, or …