Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei And Enriquillo: A Future Outlook For Two Of The Caribbean Basin's Largest Lakes, Mahrokh Moknatian, Michael Piasecki

Publications and Research

Lakes Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola Island started expanding in 2005 and continued to do so until 2016. After inundating large swaths of arable land, submerging a small community, and threatening to swallow a significant trade route between the Dominican Republic and Haiti; worries persisted at how far this seemingly unstoppable expansion would go. The paper outlines the approach to a look forward to answer this question vis-à-vis climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It uses numerical representations of the two lakes, and it examines how the lakes might evolve, deploying three …

Local- And Regional-Scale Forcing Of Glacier Mass Balance Changes In The Swiss Alps, Saeideh Gharehchahi, Thomas J. Ballinger, Jennifer L.R. Jensen, Anshuman Bhardwaj, Lydia Sam, Russell C. Weaver, David R. Butler

Research, Publications & Creative Work

Glacier mass variations are climate indicators. Therefore, it is essential to examine both winter and summer mass balance variability over a long period of time to address climate-related ice mass fluctuations. In this study, we analyze glacier mass balance components and hypsometric characteristics with respect to their interactions with local meteorological variables and remote large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns. The results show that all selected glaciers have lost their equilibrium condition in recent decades, with persistent negative annual mass balance trends and decreasing accumulation area ratios (AARs), accompanied by increasing air temperatures of +0.45 C decade 1. The controlling factor …

Section 2: Context, Kathryn L. Sobocinski

Institute Publications

Section 2 sets a foundation for understanding the Salish Sea ecosystem by describing its fundamental biophysical processes and structure, including estuarine circulation, ecological productivity, and an overview of several important biogenic habitats.

Diversity – Independent Factors Predict Elevated Extinction Rates, Dustin Perriguey

Earth and Planetary Sciences Faculty and Staff Publications

Multiple linear regression was used to determine the relationships between diversity-independent factors (i.e., abiotic, climatic) 2, 5, and 10 Myrs-prior to the most elevated Phanerozoic extinctions. We constructed five abiotic variables from Phanerozoic proxy records1–5 to compare to extinction rates: mean temperature, temperature instability, carbon cycle instability, continental weathering rates, and habitat instability. All three models were statistically significant (P < 0.05) and explained > 70% of the variation in Alroy’s6 three-timer generic extinction rates. However, the 2 Myr-prior model explained the most variance in extinction rates and had the most predictive power, based on adjusted and predictive R2 (~ 72% and 41%, respectively). Carbon …

What Is Refractory Organic Matter In The Ocean?, Federico Baltar, Xosé A. Alvarez-Salgado, Javier Arístegui, Ronald Benner, Dennis A. Hansell, Gerhard J. Herndl, Christian Lønborg

Faculty Publications

About 20% of the organic carbon produced in the sunlit surface ocean is transported into the ocean’s interior as dissolved, suspended and sinking particles to be mineralized and sequestered as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), sedimentary particulate organic carbon (POC) or “refractory” dissolved organic carbon (rDOC). Recently, the physical and biological mechanisms associated with the particle pumps have been revisited, suggesting that accepted fluxes might be severely underestimated (Boyd et al., 2019; Buesseler et al., 2020). Perhaps even more poorly understood are the mechanisms driving rDOC production and its potential accumulation in the ocean. On the basis of …

What Is Refractory Organic Matter In The Ocean?, Federico Baltar, Xosé A. Alvarez-Salgado, Javier Arístegui, Ronald Benner, Dennis A. Hansell, Gerhard J. Herndl, Christian Lønborg

Faculty Publications

About 20% of the organic carbon produced in the sunlit surface ocean is transported into the ocean’s interior as dissolved, suspended and sinking particles to be mineralized and sequestered as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), sedimentary particulate organic carbon (POC) or “refractory” dissolved organic carbon (rDOC). Recently, the physical and biological mechanisms associated with the particle pumps have been revisited, suggesting that accepted fluxes might be severely underestimated (Boyd et al., 2019; Buesseler et al., 2020). Perhaps even more poorly understood are the mechanisms driving rDOC production and its potential accumulation in the ocean. On the basis of recent conflicting evidence …

Coal Energy And Environmental Impacts: Introduction, Luis F. O. Silva, Amy L. Wolfe

Faculty, Staff, and Affiliated Publications--KGS

No abstract provided.

Under-Ice Phytoplankton Blooms: Shedding Light On The "Invisible" Part Of Arctic Primary Production, Mathieu Ardyna, C. J. Mundy, Nicolas Mayot, Lisa C. Matthes, Laurent Oziel, Christopher Horvat, Eva Leu, Philipp Assmy, Victoria Hill, Patricia A. Matrai, Matthew Gale, Igor A. Melnikov, Kevin R. Arrigo

OES Faculty Publications

The growth of phytoplankton at high latitudes was generally thought to begin in open waters of the marginal ice zone once the highly reflective sea ice retreats in spring, solar elevation increases, and surface waters become stratified by the addition of sea-ice melt water. In fact, virtually all recent large-scale estimates of primary production in the Arctic Ocean (AO) assume that phytoplankton production in the water column under sea ice is negligible. However, over the past two decades, an emerging literature showing significant under-ice phytoplankton production on a pan-Arctic scale has challenged our paradigms of Arctic phytoplankton ecology and phenology. …

Spatial Fingerprint Of Younger Dryas Cooling And Warming In Eastern North America, David Fastovich, James M. Russell, Stephen T. Jackson, Teresa R. Krause, Shaun A. Marcott, John W. Williams

Faculty Authored Articles

The Younger Dryas (YD, 12.9–11.7 ka) is the most recent, near‐global interval of abrupt climate change with rates similar to modern global warming. Understanding the causes and biodiversity effects of YD climate changes requires determining the spatial fingerprints of past temperature changes. Here we build pollen‐based and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether‐based temperature reconstructions in eastern North America (ENA) to better understand deglacial temperature evolution. YD cooling was pronounced in the northeastern United States and muted in the north central United States. Florida sites warmed during the YD, while other southeastern sites maintained a relatively stable climate. This fingerprint is …

Scientific Assessment Of Climate Change And Its Effects In Maine, Maine Climate Council Scientific And Technical Subcommittee, Ivan Fernandez, Robert Marvinney, Susie Arnold, Linda Bacon, Andrew Barton, Brian Beal, Sean Birkel, Russell Black, Alix Contosta, Amanda Cross, Adam Daigneault, Thomas Danielson, Stephen Dickson, Jeanne Difranco, Susan Elias, Glenn Hodgkins, Brian Hubbell, Joe Kelley, Rick Kersbergen, Glen Koehler, Rebecca Lincoln, William Livingston, Pamela Lombard, Bradfield Lyon, Andrew Pershing, Nichole Price, Jonathan Rubin, Joseph Salisbury, Erin Simons-Legaard, Peter Slovinsky, Robert Steneck, Sally Stockwell, Richard Wahle, Jay Wason, Aaron Weiskittel, Carl Wilson

Climate Change

Climate change has already made its presence known in Maine, from shorter winters and warmer summers with ocean heat waves, to stronger storms, new species showing up in our backyards and the Gulf of Maine, aquatic algal blooms, acidic ocean waters that affect shellfish, and new pests and diseases that harm our iconic forests and fisheries.

The health of Maine people is also being affected by climate change, from high heat index days driving increased emergency room visits to the ravages of Lyme and other vector-borne diseases. And our economy is feeling the effects, too — with farmers trying to …

Statement Of World Aquatic Scientific Societies On The Need To Take Urgent Action Against Human-Caused Climate Change, Based On Scientific Evidence [Dear Colleague Letter], Scott A. Bonar, Brian R. Murphy, Leanne H. Roulson, Jesse T. Trushenski, Douglas J. Austen, Michael Edward Douglas

United States Fish and Wildlife: Staff Publications

Dear Colleague Letter from the American Fisheries Society to fellow scientific societies, July 25, 2020, about the urgent need for responsive collective action to mitigate impending radical climate change. Includes the Statement of World Aquatic Scientific Societies on the Need to Take Urgent Action Against Human-Caused Climate Change, Based on Scientific Evidence, emphasizing the importance of aquatic ecosystems. Includes extensive citations and notes.

"Water is the most important natural resource on Earth as it is vital for life. Aquatic ecosystems, freshwater or marine, provide multiple benefits to human society, such as provisioning of oxygen, food, drinking water, genetic resources; regulation …

Projected Surface Water For Fruit And Vegetable Irrigation Under A Changing Climate In The Us, Marty Matlock, Greg Thoma, Kieu Ngoc Le, Eric Cummings, Zach Morgan, Andrew Shaw

Water Systems

Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, resulting in climate impacts, are raising concerns over the hydrologic cycle and its effects upon agricultural productivity. If rainfall patterns change, meeting an increased demand for fruits and vegetables will pose a challenge for domestic production regions in the United States (U.S.). Information on potential water supply scarcity in the current production regions provides decision makers with critical information for risk mitigation for future production. We used a hydrologic balance-based model of historic and future water availability to evaluate risk of available irrigation water to support major fruit and vegetable production the US. …

Climate Change Impacts The Subsurface Transport Of Atrazine And Estrone Originating From Agricultural Production Activities, Renys Enrique Barrios, Simin Akbariyeh, Chuyang Liu, Khalid Muzamil Gani, Margarita T. Kovalchuk, Xu Li, Yusong Li, Daniel D. Snow, Zhenghong Tang, John Gates, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Climate change will impact soil properties such as soil moisture, organic carbon and temperature and changes in these properties will influence the sorption, biodegradation and leaching of trace organic contaminants to groundwater. In this study, we conducted a modeling case study to evaluate atrazine and estrone transport in the subsurface under current and future climate conditions at a field site in central Nebraska. According to the modeling results, in the future, enhanced evapotranspiration and increased average air temperature may cause drier soil conditions, which consequently reduces the biodegradation of atrazine and estrone in the water phase. On the other hand, …

Developing And Implementing A 100% Renewable Electricity Resolution: A Research-Based Framework, Emily E. Skill, Roslynn Brain Mccann, Sarah C. Klain

All Current Publications

While it may seem that the efforts of local governments have only a marginal impact on the global issue of climate change, local action can spread to generate large-scale change. Local action can inspire other communities to adopt policies, creating the potential to expand and form regional action on climate change. Furthermore, local policies can influence state and federal policies. This guide will walk you through a five-step framework that was developed from the results of a qualitative research study that explored how three Utah cities, Salt Lake City, Park City, and Moab, successfully adopted 100% renewable electricity resolutions.

Global Pattern And Change Of Cropland Soil Organic Carbon During 1901-2010: Roles Of Climate, Atmospheric Chemistry, Land Use And Management, Wei Ren, Kamaljit Banger, Bo Tao, Jia Yang, Yawen Huang, Hanqin Tian

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

Soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands is a key property of soil quality for ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability, and also plays a central role in the global carbon (C) budget. When managed sustainably, soils may play a critical role in mitigating climate change by sequestering C and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. However, the magnitude and spatio-temporal patterns of global cropland SOC are far from well constrained due to high land surface heterogeneity, complicated mechanisms, and multiple influencing factors. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse spatially-explicit gridded environmental data to …

Assessing The Hierarchy Of Long-Term Environmental Controls On Diatom Communities Of Yellowstone National Park Using Lacustrine Sediment Records, Victoria Chraibi, Sherilyn C. Fritz

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

An ecosystem’s ability to maintain structure and function following disturbance, defined as resilience, is influenced by a hierarchy of environmental controls, including climate, surface cover, and ecological relationships that shape biological community composition and productivity. This study examined lacustrine sediment records of naturally fishless lakes in Yellowstone National Park to reconstruct the response of aquatic communities to climate and trophic cascades from fish stocking. Sediment records of diatom algae did not exhibit a distinct response to fish stocking in terms of assemblage or algal productivity. Instead, 3 of 4 lakes underwent a shift to dominance by benthic diatom species from …

No Evidence Of Fine Scale Thermal Adaption In Green Turtles, Taylor Apter

Scientific Communication News

No abstract provided.

Internet Of Things For Sustainable Forestry, Abdul Salam

Faculty Publications

Forests and grasslands play an important role in water and air purification, prevention of the soil erosion, and in provision of habitat to wildlife. Internet of Things has a tremendous potential to play a vital role in the forest ecosystem management and stability. The conservation of species and habitats, timber production, prevention of forest soil degradation, forest fire prediction, mitigation, and control can be attained through forest management using Internet of Things. The use and adoption of IoT in forest ecosystem management is challenging due to many factors. Vast geographical areas and limited resources in terms of budget and equipment …

An Evaluation Of Soils On Sólheimajökull Glacier Foreland: Using Invertebrates And Decomposition As Bio-Indicators Of Soil Quality, Carolyn Weisman

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Anthropogenic climate change has led to the retreat of glaciers globally. As glaciers melt, they expose the underlying land- termed the glacier foreland. These forelands provide a natural laboratory for studying ecological succession after a massive disturbance, which is in this case glaciation. In this study, soil invertebrates and decomposition are used as bio-indicators of the soil quality in the foreland of Sólheimajökull Outlet Glacier. Soil cores were collected from five sites (A-E) located 300m apart moving away from the glacier terminus. The abundance of each observed invertebrate taxa and the dissolved oxygen (DO) levels were taken for 30 soil …

Interglacial Expansion Of Alpine Glaciers In Garwood Valley, Antarctica, Laura Mattas

Honors College

It is important to understand the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to ongoing global atmospheric and oceanic warming to anticipate future sea-level change. There are several contrasting views in this regard. Harig and Simons (2015) concur with the IPCC (2013) conclusion that, in recent decades, outflow across the peripheral grounding lines of the ice sheet has exceeded increased accumulation on the interior surface of the ice sheet. In contrast, Zwally et al. (2015) suggest that recent surface accumulation in the interior East and West Antarctica has outpaced peripheral losses. They further suggest that this recent positive imbalance adds …

Climate Change Impacts On Winter Wheat Yield In Northern China, Xiu Geng, Fang Wang, Wei Ren, Zhixin Hao

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change. We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb–Douglas production function. Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed. It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762–1.921% in absolute terms. Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981–2016. A …

Next-Generation Rainfall Idf Curves For The Virginian Drainage Area Of Chesapeake Bay, Xixi Wang, Xiaomin Yang, Zhaoyi Cai

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Probability-based intensity-duration-frequency IDF curves are needed but currently lacking for Department of Defense DoD to construct and manage its infrastructure in changing climate. The objectives of this project were to 1 develop an innovative approach for considering rainfall non-stationarity in developing such IDF curves and 2 apply this approach to the state of Virginia. In this regard, the observed data on 15-min rainfall at 57 gauges and the precipitations projected by twelve pairs of Regional Climate Model RCM and Global Circulation Model GCM were used. For a given gauge or watershed, in terms of fitting the empirical exceedance probabilities, a …

Assessment Of Agricultural Drought Considering The Hydrological Cycle And Crop Phenology In The Korean Peninsula, Chul-Hee Lim, Seung Hee Kim, Jong Ahn Chun, Menas Kafatos, Woo-Kyun Lee

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Hydrological changes attributable to global warming increase the severity and frequency of droughts, which in turn affect agriculture. Hence, we proposed the Standardized Agricultural Drought Index (SADI), which is a new drought index specialized for agriculture and crops, and evaluated current and expected droughts in the Korean Peninsula. The SADI applies crop phenology to the hydrological cycle, which is a basic element that assesses drought. The SADI of rice and maize was calculated using representative hydrological variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff) of the crop growing season. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of SADI, the three-month Standardized Precipitation Index, which …

Sea-Level Driven Land Conversion And The Formation Of Ghost Forests, Matthew L. Kirwan, Keryn B. Gedan

VIMS Articles

Ghost forests created by the submergence of low-lying land are one of the most striking indicators of climate change along the Atlantic coast of North America. Although dead trees at the margin of estuaries were described as early as 1910, recent research has led to new recognition that the submergence of terrestrial land is geographically widespread, ecologically and economically important, and globally relevant to the survival of coastal wetlands in the face of rapid sea level rise. This emerging understanding has in turn generated widespread interest in the physical and ecological mechanisms influencing the extent and pace of upland to …

“In Principle” Versus “In Reality”: Assessing The Potential Of Adaptive Urban Governance Toward Urban Flooding In Ho Chi Minh City’S District 7, Cindy Pham Nguyen

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Flooding has become the new normal in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During the rainy season, many areas of the city experience severe inundation that seriously impacts infrastructure, traffic, and economic transactions. As the effects of climate change unpredictably and rapidly manifest in Southern Vietnam, the frequency and impact of urban floods are projected to increase. In addition, within the last few decades, HCMC has rapidly developed and urbanized, transforming itself into the economic center of Southern Vietnam. However, previous studies and international experts have determined that rapid, poor development may be exacerbating urban flood issues.

In recent years, city …

Including Variability Across Climate Change Projections In Assessing Impacts On Water Resources In An Intensively Managed Landscape, Bangshuai Han, Shawn G. Benner, Alejandro N. Flores

Geosciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

In intensively managed watersheds, water scarcity is a product of interactions between complex biophysical processes and human activities. Understanding how intensively managed watersheds respond to climate change requires modeling these coupled processes. One challenge in assessing the response of these watersheds to climate change lies in adequately capturing the trends and variability of future climates. Here we combine a stochastic weather generator together with future projections of climate change to efficiently create a large ensemble of daily weather for three climate scenarios, reflecting recent past and two future climate scenarios. With a previously developed model that captures rainfall-runoff processes and …

Northeastern China 4.2ka Database, Louis A. Scuderi, Xiaoping Yamg, Samantha Ascoli, Hongwei Li

Paleoclimate Datasets

The Hunshandake Sandy Lands of northeastern China, currently a semiarid lightly vegetated region, were characterized by perennial lakes and forest stands in the early and middle Holocene. Well-developed dark grassland-type paleosols (mollisols) at the southern edge of the Hunshandake OSL-dated to between 6.93 +0.61 and 4.27 +0.38 ka along with lacustrine sands at higher elevations that date to between 5.7 +0.3 and 5.2 +0.2 ka and thick gray lacustrine sediments suggest a wetter climate. Between 4.2 and 3.8 ka, the region experienced extreme drying that was exacerbated by lake overflow drainage and sapping that depleted the groundwater table. The region …

Assessment Of The Effects Of Climate Change On Evapotranspiration With An Improved Elasticity Method In A Nonhumid Area, Lei Tian, Jiming Jin, Pute Wu, Guo-Yue Niu

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Climatic elasticity is a crucial metric to assess the hydrological influence of climate change. Based on the Budyko equation, this study performed an analytical derivation of the climatic elasticity of evapotranspiration (ET). With this derived elasticity, it is possible to quantitatively separate the impacts of precipitation, air temperature, net radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed on ET in a watershed. This method was applied in the Wuding River Watershed (WRW), located in the center of the Yellow River Watershed of China. The estimated rate of change in ET caused by climatic variables is −10.69 mm/decade, which is close to the …

Quantifying The Impact Of Climate Change And Human Activities On Streamflow In A Semi-Arid Watershed With The Budyko Equation Incorporating Dynamic Vegetation Information, Lei Tian, Jiming Jin, Pute Wu, Guo-Yue Niu

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Understanding hydrological responses to climate change and land use and land cover change (LULCC) is important for water resource planning and management, especially for water-limited areas. The annual streamflow of the Wuding River Watershed (WRW), the largest sediment source of the Yellow River in China, has decreased significantly over the past 50 years at a rate of 5.2 mm/decade. Using the Budyko equation, this study investigated this decrease with the contributions from climate change and LULCC caused by human activities, which have intensified since 1999 due to China’s Grain for Green Project (GFGP). The Budyko parameter that represents watershed characteristics …

Breeding For Resilience To Increasing Temperatures: A Field Trial Assessing Genetic Variation In Soft Red Winter Wheat, Kathleen Russell, David Van Sanford

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

Breeding for resilience to climate change is a daunting prospect. Crop and climate models tell us that global wheat yields are likely to decline as the climate warms, causing a significant risk to global food security. High temperatures are known to affect crop development yet breeding for tolerance to heat stress is difficult to achieve in field environments. We conducted an active warming study over two years to quantify the effects of heat stress on genetic variation of soft red winter (SRW) wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Forty SRW cultivars and breeding lines were chosen based on marker genotypes at …