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A New Approach To Probabilistic Lava Flow Hazard Assessments, Applied To The Idaho National Laboratory, Eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho, Usa, Elisabeth Gallant, Jacob Richardson, Charles Connor, Paul Wetmore, Laura Connor
A New Approach To Probabilistic Lava Flow Hazard Assessments, Applied To The Idaho National Laboratory, Eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho, Usa, Elisabeth Gallant, Jacob Richardson, Charles Connor, Paul Wetmore, Laura Connor
School of Geosciences Faculty and Staff Publications
We present a new probabilistic lava flow hazard assessment for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory (INL) nuclear facility that (1) explores the way eruptions are defined and modeled, (2) stochastically samples lava flow parameters from observed values for use in MOLASSES, a lava flow simulator, (3) calculates the likelihood of a new vent opening within the boundaries of INL, (4) determines probabilities of lava flow inundation for INL through Monte Carlo simulation, and (5) couples inundation probabilities with recurrence rates to determine the annual likelihood of lava flow inundation for INL. Results show a 30% probability of …