Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Improving Data-Driven Infrastructure Degradation Forecast Skill With Stepwise Asset Condition Prediction Models, Kurt R. Lamm, Justin D. Delorit, Michael N. Grussing, Steven J. Schuldt

Faculty Publications

Organizations with large facility and infrastructure portfolios have used asset management databases for over ten years to collect and standardize asset condition data. Decision makers use these data to predict asset degradation and expected service life, enabling prioritized maintenance, repair, and renovation actions that reduce asset life-cycle costs and achieve organizational objectives. However, these asset condition forecasts are calculated using standardized, self-correcting distribution models that rely on poorly-fit, continuous functions. This research presents four stepwise asset condition forecast models that utilize historical asset inspection data to improve prediction accuracy: (1) Slope, (2) Weighted Slope, (3) Condition-Intelligent Weighted Slope, and (4) …

Stock Trend Prediction Using Candlestick Charting And Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques With A Novelty Feature Engineering Scheme, Yaohu Lin, Shancun Liu, Haijun Yang, Harris Wu

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

Stock market forecasting is a knotty challenging task due to the highly noisy, nonparametric, complex and chaotic nature of the stock price time series. With a simple eight-trigram feature engineering scheme of the inter-day candlestick patterns, we construct a novel ensemble machine learning framework for daily stock pattern prediction, combining traditional candlestick charting with the latest artificial intelligence methods. Several machine learning techniques, including deep learning methods, are applied to stock data to predict the direction of the closing price. This framework can give a suitable machine learning prediction method for each pattern based on the trained results. The investment …

Improving Stock Trading Decisions Based On Pattern Recognition Using Machine Learning Technology, Yaohu Lin, Shancun Liu, Haijun Yang, Harris Wu, Bingbing Jiang

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

PRML, a novel candlestick pattern recognition model using machine learning methods, is proposed to improve stock trading decisions. Four popular machine learning methods and 11 different features types are applied to all possible combinations of daily patterns to start the pattern recognition schedule. Different time windows from one to ten days are used to detect the prediction effect at different periods. An investment strategy is constructed according to the identified candlestick patterns and suitable time window. We deploy PRML for the forecast of all Chinese market stocks from Jan 1, 2000 until Oct 30, 2020. Among them, the data from …

Demand Forecasting For Alcoholic Beverage Distribution, Lei Jiang, Kristen M. Rollins, Meredith Ludlow, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

Forecasting demand is one of the biggest challenges in any business, and the ability to make such predictions is an invaluable resource to a company. While difficult, predicting demand for products should be increasingly accessible due to the volume of data collected in businesses and the continuing advancements of machine learning models. This paper presents forecasting models for two vodka products for an alcoholic beverage distributing company located in the United States with the purpose of improving the company’s ability to forecast demand for those products. The results contain exploratory data analysis to determine the most important variables impacting demand, …

Utilization Of Statistics For Provision Of Business Information: Implementation Of Α-Sutte Indicator On Provision Of Stock Movement Prediction Information, Nuning Kurniasih, Ansari Saleh Ahmar, Nanik Kurniawati

Library Philosophy and Practice (e-journal)

The Current information services are dealing with big data that is freely accessible. Companies providing information services and products need to develop creativity and innovation to maintain their existence. In this paper, we offer that information specialist can add value to information. The added value is given through an analysis of information that is relevant to user needs. The Research and Development Method can be used to develop a framework for service information products and services, and bridge the gap between the theories studied in higher education and the needs of the industry. α-Sutte Indicator can be used to predict …

A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with …

Macroconstants Of Development: A New Benchmark For The Strategic Development Of Advanced Countries And Firms, Andrey Bystrov, Vyacheslav Yusim, Tamilla Curtis

Dr. Tamilla Curtis

This research proposed a new indicator of countries’ development called “macroconstants of development”. The literature review indicates that the concept of "macroconstants of development" is not used at the moment in neither the theory nor the practice of industrial policy. Research of longitudinal data of total GDP, GDP per capita and their derivatives for most countries of the world was conducted. An analysis of statistical information has been done by employing econometric analyses.

Based on the analysis of the statistical data, which characterizes the development of large, technologically advanced countries in ordinary conditions, it was identified that the average acceleration …

Macroconstants Of Development: A New Benchmark For The Strategic Development Of Advanced Countries And Firms, Andrey V. Bystrov, Vyacheslav N. Yusim, Tamilla Curtis

Publications

This research proposed a new indicator of countries’ development called “macroconstants of development”. The literature review indicates that the concept of "macroconstants of development" is not used at the moment in neither the theory nor the practice of industrial policy. Research of longitudinal data of total GDP, GDP per capita and their derivatives for most countries of the world was conducted. An analysis of statistical information has been done by employing econometric analyses.

Based on the analysis of the statistical data, which characterizes the development of large, technologically advanced countries in ordinary conditions, it was identified that the average acceleration …

Review Of Daniel Kahnemann, Paul Slovic, And Amos Tversky (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics And Biases, J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

This book provides a convenient collection of important papers relevant to a subset of judgmental forecasting. My review discusses: (i) the scope of the readings (ii) the importance of the readings (iii) what is new (iv) how the book is organized (v) advice on using the book, and (vi) who should read the book.

A Comparative Study Of Methods For Long-Range Market Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Michael C. Grohman

J. Scott Armstrong

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H2 The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H3 Causal methods provide more accuracy than do naive methods. H4 The relative advantage of causal over naive methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. Support for these hypotheses was then obtained from the literature and from a study of a single market. The study used three different models to make ex ante forecasts of the U.S. air …

Error Measures For Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy

J. Scott Armstrong

This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90 annual and 101 quarterly economic time series. We judged error measures on reliability, construct validity, sensitivity to small changes, protection against outliers, and their relationship to decision making. The results lead us to recommend the Geometric Mean of the Relative Absolute Error (GMRAE) when the task involves calibrating a model for a set of time series. The GMRAE compares the absolute error of a given method to that from the random walk forecast. For selecting the most accurate methods, we recommend the Median RAE (MdRAE)when …

Crop Updates 2007 - Farming Systems, David Jeffries, A. Loi, B. J. Nutt, C. K. Revell, Yvette Oliver, Michael Robertson, Bill Bowden, Kit Leake, Ashley Bonser, Ian Maling, Bindi Isbister, Garren Knell, Alison Slade, David Stephens, Michael Meuleners, David Beard, Nicolyn Short, Rob Grima, Ingrid Richardson, Ruhi Ferdowsian, Geoff Bee, David Evans, Bob Gilkes, Senthold Asseng, Jim Dixon, Felicity Byrne, Mike Ewing, Dennis Van Gool, Louise Barton, Ralf Kiese, David Gatter, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Renee Buck, Christoph Hinz, Daniel Murphy, Cameron Weeks, Meredith Fairbanks, John Peirce, Brad Rayner, Sandy White, Paul Damon, Qifa Ma, Zed Rengel, Ed Barrett-Lennard, Meir Altman, Tracey M. Gianatti, Lindsay Bell, Ben Webb, Caroline Peek, Paul Sanford, Paul Blackwell, Glen Riethmuller, Darshan Sharma, Mike Collins, Frank D'Emden, David Hall, G. P. Manango, D. L. Steverson, Vanessa Stewart, Julie Roche, Peter Rutherford, Imma Farré, Ian Foster, Stephen Charles, Frances Hoyle, N. Milton, M. Osman, L. K. Abbott, W. R. Cookson, S. Darmawanto, Rob Sands, David Mccarthy, Paul Carmody, J. Russell, J. Eyres, G. Fosbery, A. Roe, Phil Nichols, Andrew Bathgate, Anne Wilkins

Crop Updates

This session covers forty papers from different authors:

1. Quality Assurance and industry stewardship, David Jeffries, Better Farm IQ Manager, Cooperative Bulk Handling

2. Sothis: Trifolium dasyurum (Eastern Star clover), A. Loi, B.J. Nutt and C.K. Revell, Department of Agriculture and Food

3. Poor performing patches of the paddock – to ameliorate or live with low yield? Yvette Oliver¹, Michael Robertson¹, Bill Bowden², Kit Leake³and Ashley Bonser³, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems¹, Department of Food and Agriculture², Kellerberrin Farmer³

4. What evidence is there that …

Forecasting Consumer Adoption Of Technological Innovation: Choosing The Appropriate Diffusion Models For New Products And Services Before Launch, Roger Calantone, Lance Gentry

Business and Information Technology Faculty Research & Creative Works

There are many good articles on various forecasting models. There is consensus that no single diffusion model is best for every situation. Experts in the field have asked for studies to provide empirical-based guidelines for recommending when various models should be used. This research investigates multiple diffusion models and provides recommendations for which diffusion models are appropriate for radical and really new products and services before the launch of the innovation.

Crop Updates 2006 - Katanning, David Stephens, Michael Meuleners, Meredith Fairbanks, Thomas Schulz, T. J. Flowers, T. D. Colmer, Narelle Simpson, Ron Mctaggart, Wal Anderson, Lionel Martin, Dave Allen, Brenda Shackley, Raj Malik, Kelly Winfield, Rodger Beermier, Shahahan Miyan, Abul Hashem, Shahab Pathan, Vikki Osten, Alex Douglas, Garren Knell, Steve Curtin, Wade Longmuir, Henry Brockman, Justin Hardy, Arjen Ryder, John Paul Collins, Jessica Johns, John Pepall, Allan Herbert

Crop Updates

This session covers sixteen papers from different authors

1. 2006 SEASONAL OUTLOOK, David Stephens and Michael Meuleners, Department of Agriculture

2. Review of climate model summaries reported in the Department of Agriculture’s growing season outlooks, Meredith Fairbanks, Department of Agriculture

3. Farmers commodity outlook 2006, Thomas Schulz, Department of Agriculture

4. Why is salinity such a difficult problem for plant breeders? T J Flowers, TD Colmer, University of Western Australia

5. Matching nitrogen supply to wheat demand in 2005, Narelle Simpson, Ron McTaggart, Wal Anderson, Lionel Martin and Dave Allen, Department of Agriculture

6. Wheat varieties in 2006, Brenda Shackley, …

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Crop Updates 2006 - Cadoux And Calingiri, Raj Malik, Kelly Winfield, David Stephens, Michael Meuleners, Kari-Lee Falconer, Bill Bowden, Narelle Simpson, Anne Wilkins, Nathan Hancock, Peter Newman, Glenn Adam, Andrew Blake, Caroline Peak, Stephen Davies, Chris Gazey, Bob Gilkes, Dan Evans, Tania Liaghati

Crop Updates

This session covers nine papers from different authors

1. Performance of oaten hay varieties in Western Australian environments, Raj Malik and Kellie Winfield, Department of Agriculture

2. Performance of dwarf potential milling varieties in Western Australian environments, Raj Malik and Kellie Winfield, Department of Agriculture

3. 2006 Seasonal outlook, David Stephens, Michael Meuleners and Kari-Lee Falconer, Department of Agriculture

4. Matching nitrogen supply to crop demand in high rainfall cropping, Bill Bowden, Narelle Simpson Department of Agriculture

5. An overview of the potential for a Biofuels Industry in Western Australia, Anne Wilkins and Nathan Hancock, Department of Agriculture

6. IWM performs over 5 years …

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Crop Updates 2005 - Katanning, Brian Mcalpine, David Stephens, Nicola Telcik, K. Jayasena, R. Loughman, G. Thomas, C. Beard, B. Paynter, Colin Mann, Ross Kingwell, Frances Hoyle, D. V. Murphy, N. Milton, M. Osman, L. K. Abbott, W. R. Cookson, S. Darmawanto, Bill Bowden, Blakely Paynter, K. Regan, P. White, K. Siddique, K. Adhikari, M. Harries, Ian Pritchard, Angelo Loi, Phil Nichols, Clinton Revell, David Ferris, Bill Roy, Sally Peltzer, Dave Minkey, Michael Walsh, Alexandra Douglas, Meredith Fairbanks, Ian Foster, Geraldine Pasqual, David Tennant, Belinda Barr, Heather Bray, Steve Penny, Narelle Hill, Ron Mctaggart, Wal Anderson, Ray Tugwell, Svetlana Micic, Phil Michael, Roy Butler, Keith Croker

Crop Updates

This session covers twenty five papers from different authors

KEYNOTE

How Farmers Can Work Together for a More Sustainable and Profitable Business, Brian McAlpine Farmer, Nuffield Scholar

GENERAL

1. 2005 Seasonal Outlook, David Stephens and Nicola Telcik, Department of Agriculture

2. Essentials for cereal leaf disease management, K. Jayasena, R. Loughman, G. Thomas, C. Beard, and B. Paynter, Department of Agriculture

3. Benefits to the grower of grain licensing, Colin Mann, Grain Licensing Authority SOIL & NUTRIENTS

4. The effect of higher nitrogen fertiliser prices on rotation and fertiliser strategies in cropping systems, Ross Kingwell …

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Crop Updates 2005 - Farming Systems, David Stephens, Nicola Telcik, Ross Kingwell, Wayne Pluske, Bill Bowden, Mike Collins, Frances Hoyle, D. V. Murphy, N. Milton, M. Osman, L. K. Abbott, W. R. Cookson, S. Darmawanto, Bill Crabtree, Geoff Anderson, Darren Kidson, Ross Brennan, Nick Drew, Craig Scanlan, Lisa Sherriff, Bob French, Reg Lunt, Jeff Russell, Angie Roe, Ian Maling, Matthew Adams, George Yan, Mohammad Hamza, Glen Riethmuller, Wal Anderson, Angela Loi, Phil Nichols, Clinton Revell, David Ferris, Phil Ward, Andrea Hills, Sally-Anne Penny, David Hall, Michael Robertson, Don Gaydon, Tress Walmsley, Caroline Peek, Megan Abrahams, Paul Raper, Richard O'Donnell, Trevor Lacey, Meredith Fairbanks, David Tennant, Cameron Weeks, Richard Quinlan, Alexandra Edward, Chris Carter, Doug Hamilton, Peter Tozer, Renaye Horne, Tracey Gianatti, Paul Carmody, Ian Foster, Michele John, Ross George, Imma Farré, Ian Kininmonth, Dennis Van Gool, Neil Coles, Bill Porter, Louise Barton, Richard Harper, Peter Ritson, Tony Beck, Chris Mitchell, Michael Hill, Fiona Barker-Reid, Will Gates, Ken Wilson, Rob Baigent, Ian Galbally, Mick Meyer, Ian Weeks, Traci Griffin, D. Rodriguez, M. Probust, M. Meyers, D. Chen, A. Bennett, W. Strong, R. Nussey, I Galbally, M. Howden

Crop Updates

This session covers forty four papers from different authors:

PLENARY

1. 2005 Outlook, David Stephens and Nicola Telcik, Department of Agriculture

FERTILITY AND NUTRITION

2. The effect of higher nitrogen fertiliser prices on rotation and fertiliser strategies in cropping systems, Ross Kingwell, Department of Agriculture and University of Western Australia

3. Stubble management: The short and long term implications for crop nutrition and soil fertility, Wayne Pluske, Nutrient Management Systems and Bill Bowden, Department of Agriculture

4. Stubble management: The pros and cons of different methods, Bill Bowden, Department of Agriculture, Western Australia and Mike Collins, …

Crop Updates 2003 - -Katanning, Robert F. Park, Robert Loughman, Colin Wellings, Greg Shea, Jocelyn Ball, Natasha Littlewood, Lucy Creagh, Alex Douglas, David Stephens, Ross Brennan, Mike Bolland, Narelle Hill, Phil Michael, Francoise A. Berlandier, Christiaan Valentine, Roy Latta, M. Rodger Beermier, Keith Devenish, Blakely Paynter, Kevin Young, Robin Wilson, Ian Barclay, Robyn Mclean, Jenny Garlinge, Bill Lambe, Neil Venn, Peter Clarke, Frances Hoyle, Leanne Schulz, Judith Devenish

Crop Updates

This session covers sixteen papers from different authors

1. Breeding Cereals for Rust Resistance – are we losing the battle? Robert F. Park, University of Sydney

2. Stripe rust – where to now for the WA wheat industry? Robert Loughman, Department of Agriculture, Colin Wellings, University of Sydney, Greg Shea, Department of Agriculture

3. Oaten hay production, Jocelyn Ball, Natasha Littlewood and Lucy Creagh, Department of Agriculture

4. Don’t rely on ‘Spray and Pray’ Alex Douglas, Department of Agriculture

5. Seasonal outlook: What is in store for 2003, David Stephens, Department of Agriculture

6. No-till copper, phosphorus and zinc …

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Crop Updates 2003 - Geraldton, David Stephens, James Fisher, Ian Edwards, Dennis Wise, Andrew Young, Robert Loughman, Ciara Beard, Greg Shea, Blakely Paynter, Roslyn Jettner, Kevin Young, Kevin Walden, Geoff Thomas, Robin Wilson, Iain Barclay, Robyn Mclean, Jenny Garlinge, Bill Lambe, Neil Venn, Peter Clarke, Martin Harries, Bob French, Wayne Parker, Murray Blyth, Peter Norris, Greg Lyle, Katheryn Steadman, Amanda Ellery, Sally C. Peltzer, Kari-Lee Falconer, Russell Speed, Terry Piper, Harmohinder Dhammu, Bindi Webb, Paul Blackwell, Phil Logue, Nigel Moffat, Rohan Ford, Miles Obst, Frances Hoyle, Leanne Schulz, Judith Devenish, Peter Newman, Grant Morrow, Ian Foster, Darshan Sharma, Marnie Thomas, Graham Walton, Hasan Zaheer, Paul Carmody, Mike Clarke, Paul Raper

Crop Updates

This session covers twenty eight papers from different authors

1. Seasonal Outlook: What is in store for 2003, David Stephens, Department of Agriculture

2. Examining The Management Options For Wheat Crops In The Coming Season, James Fisher, Department of Agriculture

3. GMO’s – what do they offer? Ian Edwards, Grain Bio Tech Australia Pty Ltd

4. The Big Gamble – Wheat prices for 2003, Dennis Wise, Profarmer

5. Market outlook for other grains, Andrew Young, General Manager Agricorp

6. Stripe rust – where to now for the WA wheat industry? Robert Loughman, Ciara Beard and Greg Shea, Department of Agriculture

7. Baudin …

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Crop Updates 2002 - Cereals, Peter Burgess, Gary Fawell, Dean Diepeveen, Tim Setter, Jeff Russell, Tony Seymour, Robin Wilson, Iain Barclay, Robyn Mclean, Robert Loughman, Jenny Garlinge, Bill Lambe, Neil Venn, Peter Clarke, Mohammad Amjad, Wal Anderson, Raffael Del Cima, James Bee, Darshen Sharma, Sheena Lyon, Melaine Kupsch, Pam Burges, Veronika Reck, Brenda Shackley, Ray Tugwell, Bindi Webb, Steve Penny Jr, James Fisher, Bill Bowden, Craig Scanlan, Senthold Asseng, Michael Robertson, M. A. Hamza, G. Mcconnell, W. K. Anderson, Md Shahajahan Miyan, Darshan Sharma, Daya Patabendige, Patrick Gethin, Stephen Loss, Tim O'Dea, Ryan Guthrie, Lisa Leaver, Tyrone Henning, Lionel Martin, Narelle Hill, Simon Wallwork, Laurence Carslake, Darren Hughes, Glen Mcdonald, Nichole Burges, Dominie Wright, Jenny Hawkes, Roger Jones, Kith Jayasena, Kazue Tanaka, Vanessa Johnson, Robert Loughman, Josh Jury, Sean Kelly, Shashi Sharma, Robert Park, Phil Michael, Debbie Thackray, Christopher Newman, Garren Knell, Kevin Povey, David Stephens

Crop Updates

This session covers thirty one papers from different authors:

VARIETIES AND BREEDING

1. Agronomic evaluation of wheat and barley in the central wheatbelt of Western Australia, Peter Burgess¹and Gary Fawell², ¹Agritech and ²Farmanco Management

2. Evaluating stress tolerance to terminal drought by Western Australian wheats, Dean Diepeveen and Dr Tim Setter, Department of Agriculture

3. Broadscale wheat variety comparisons featuring Wyalkatchem, Jeff Russell, Department of Agriculture

4. Australian crop accreditation system variety selector, Tony Seymour, Australian Crop Accreditation System

5. Future wheat varieties, Robin Wilson, Iain Barclay,Robyn McLean, Robert Loughman, …