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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Evolutionary Simulation Of Medical Products Export Safety Supervision Considering Regulation Of Importing Country, Xiaoli Li, Cejun Cao, Fanshun Zhang
Evolutionary Simulation Of Medical Products Export Safety Supervision Considering Regulation Of Importing Country, Xiaoli Li, Cejun Cao, Fanshun Zhang
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: In order to investigate the impacts of the regulation of importing country on export safety supervision regarding medical products in the COVID-19 epidemic situation, an evolutionary game model considering the relation between export enterprise and supervision of government is constructed. Based on MATLAB simulation, the influences of different factors including regulation level of importing country, punishment mechanism on export safety supervision of medical products are analyzed. Results show that the illegal behaviors of the export enterprises of medical products can be restrained when the regulation level of importing country reaches a certain threshold. But that would fuel the passively …
Transmission Process Prediction Of Novel Coronavirus Based On System Dynamics, Xuepeng Lu, Shang Jiao, Junhui Zhao, Lulu Lü, Zhou Li
Transmission Process Prediction Of Novel Coronavirus Based On System Dynamics, Xuepeng Lu, Shang Jiao, Junhui Zhao, Lulu Lü, Zhou Li
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: The transmission characteristics of novel coronavirus is considered and a new SE4IR2 model based on the principle of system dynamics is proposed. The US epidemic data from June to November is used to set the isolation rate and other parameters, and the SE4IR2 model is used to fit, analyze and predict the development of the epidemic trend in the next stage. The empirical part uses the data from June to November in the United States to achieve the parameters of the SE4IR2 model, obtains the parameter values in December and January through the time series prediction model, and compares …
Uncertainty Quantitative Analysis In Risk Assessment Of Returning To School In The Post-Covid-19 Era, Haibin Li, Jialiang Wang, Haiyan Li
Uncertainty Quantitative Analysis In Risk Assessment Of Returning To School In The Post-Covid-19 Era, Haibin Li, Jialiang Wang, Haiyan Li
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: After the epidemic, taking the spread of the epidemic in returning to school as an example, a quantitative risk assessment study is conducted. Taking the activity trajectory description of the whole process of susceptible individuals from infection to isolation as a clue, an epidemiological model for risk assessment is established. The number of infected persons in the risk indicators of returning to school is quantified based on the quantified model parameters. According to the value characteristics of the parameters, the number of infected persons is taken as a function of discrete random variables. The probability distribution of the infected …