Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

(R1468) Global Analysis Of An Seirs Model For Covid-19 Capturing Saturated Incidence With Treatment Response, David A. Oluyori, Helen O. Adebayo, Ángel G.C. Pérez

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this work, a new SEIRS model with saturated incidence rate and piecewise linear treatment response is proposed to describe the dynamics of COVID-19. It is assumed that the treatment response is proportional to the number of infected people as long as the incidence cases are within the capacity of the healthcare system, after which the value becomes constant, when the number of confirmed cases exceeds the carrying capacity of the available medical facilities. Thus, the basic reproduction number of the model is obtained. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number …

Cubic Spline Interpolation For Data Infections Of Covid-19 Pandemic In Iraq, Jehan Mohammed Al-Ameri

Al-Qadisiyah Journal of Pure Science

In this paper, we use an empirical equation and cubic spline interpolation to fit Covid-19 data available for accumulated infections and deaths in Iraq. For Scientific visualization of data interpretation, it is useful to use interpolation methods for purposes fitting by data interpolation. The data used is from 3 January 2020 to 21 January 2021 in order to obtain graphs to analysing the rate of increasing the pandemic and then obtain predicted values for the data infections and deaths in that period of time. Stochastic fit to the data of daily infections and deaths of Covid-19 is also discussed and …

Professional Responsibility, Legal Malpractice, Cybersecurity, And Cyber-Insurance In The Covid-19 Era, Ethan S. Burger

St. Mary's Journal on Legal Malpractice & Ethics

In response to the COVID-19 outbreak, law firms conformed their activities to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and state health authority guidelines by immediately reducing the size of gatherings, encouraging social distancing, and mandating the use of protective gear. These changes necessitated the expansion of law firm remote operations, made possible by the increased adoption of technological tools to coordinate workflow and administrative tasks, communicate with clients, and engage with judicial and governmental bodies.

Law firms’ increased use of these technological tools for carrying out legal and administrative activities has implications …

Evolutionary Simulation Of Medical Products Export Safety Supervision Considering Regulation Of Importing Country, Xiaoli Li, Cejun Cao, Fanshun Zhang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In order to investigate the impacts of the regulation of importing country on export safety supervision regarding medical products in the COVID-19 epidemic situation, an evolutionary game model considering the relation between export enterprise and supervision of government is constructed. Based on MATLAB simulation, the influences of different factors including regulation level of importing country, punishment mechanism on export safety supervision of medical products are analyzed. Results show that the illegal behaviors of the export enterprises of medical products can be restrained when the regulation level of importing country reaches a certain threshold. But that would fuel the passively …

Insignificant Impacts Of Covid-19 Stay-At-Home Orders On Chicago Air Quality, Adam W.T. Steffeck

DePaul Discoveries

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, reports of air quality improvements around the world resulting from the stay-at-home orders were widespread. However, for Chicago, no significant air quality improvements occurred despite large reductions in private vehicle transportation due to the lack of commuters. The city of Chicago is a nexus for long-haul transportation by trucks and trains, which did not decrease during the pandemic. These transportation sources use mostly diesel fuel engines and emit NO_X, a precursor to tropospheric ozone, and PM_2.5, both of which are harmful air pollutants. Using open access EPA air quality …

Crocheting Mathematics Through Covid-19, Beyza C. Aslan

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

As it is often said, something good often comes out of most bad situations. The time I spent during COVID-19, at home and isolated with my two children, brought out one secret passion in me: crocheting. Not only did it help me pass the time in a sane and productive way, but also it gave me a new goal in life. It connected my math side with my artistic side. It gave me a new perspective to look at math, and helped me help others see math in a positive way.

Transmission Process Prediction Of Novel Coronavirus Based On System Dynamics, Xuepeng Lu, Shang Jiao, Junhui Zhao, Lulu Lü, Zhou Li

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The transmission characteristics of novel coronavirus is considered and a new SE4IR2 model based on the principle of system dynamics is proposed. The US epidemic data from June to November is used to set the isolation rate and other parameters, and the SE4IR2 model is used to fit, analyze and predict the development of the epidemic trend in the next stage. The empirical part uses the data from June to November in the United States to achieve the parameters of the SE4IR2 model, obtains the parameter values in December and January through the time series prediction model, and compares …

Trustworthy Maps, Amy L. Griffin

Journal of Spatial Information Science

Maps get used for decision making about the world's most pressing problems (e.g., climate change, refugee crises, biodiversity loss, rising inequality, pandemic disease). Although maps have historically been a trusted source of information, changes in society (e.g., lower levels of trust in decision makers) and in mapmaking technologies and practices (e.g., anyone can now make their own maps) mean that we need to spend some time thinking about how, when, and why people trust maps and mapmaking processes. This is critically important if we want stakeholders to engage constructively with the information we present in maps, because they are unlikely …

Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Due to the rise of COVID-19 cases, many mathematical models have been developed to study the disease dynamics of the virus. However, despite its role in the spread of COVID-19, many SEIR models neglect to account for human behavior. In this project, we develop a novel mathematical modeling framework for studying the impact of mixing patterns and social behavior on the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, we consider two groups, one exhibiting normal behavior who do not reduce their contacts and another exhibiting altered behavior who reduce their contacts by practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and self-isolation. The dynamics …

Experiences And Coping Strategies During The Covid-19 Pandemic Among Fishers And Farmers In The Island Province Of Guimaras, Philippines, Gay Margarett A. Gange, Louie Marie T. Eluriaga, Alice Joan G. Ferrer

Journal of Economics, Management and Agricultural Development

This study describes the experiences and coping strategies related with the COVID-19 threat and the community quarantine policy by the fishers and farmers in the island province of Guimaras. Both food producers faced marketrelated problems such as low demand, low prices of catch and produce, and logistical problems. While the in-kind support (e.g., food provisions) received and adaptive measures (e.g., continued with fishing or adjusted harvest schedule; use of social media or delivery services in marketing) allowed them to get by during the pandemic, there is a need to develop more resilient farming and fishing households. Short-term support can be …

Spring 2021

Scientia

From the Dean: A Decade of Purpose and Progress; Lab Notes: Alumna Wins Gordon Bell Special Prize, New Scholarships, Vaccination Site Volunteers; Women in Science Lecture, National Institutes of Health Grants, "Unequal Cities" Research; All Hands on Deck: Inspired pandemic approaches showcase interdisciplinary acumen in action; Unlocking Potential: Christopher Beasley thinks psychology is key to academic transformation for the formerly incarcerated; Puzzle Master: Bridget Tenner goes to pieces solving problems in cutting-edge mathematics

Research Focus: Pattern Recognition

In The Loop

A CDM health informatics team joins a global race to advance COVID-19 diagnostics through X-ray insights.

Confidence Intervals Of Covid-19 Vaccine Efficacy Rates, Frank Wang

Numeracy

This tutorial uses publicly available data from drug makers and the Food and Drug Administration to guide learners to estimate the confidence intervals of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy rates with a Bayesian framework. Under the classical approach, there is no probability associated with a parameter, and the meaning of confidence intervals can be misconstrued by inexperienced students. With Bayesian statistics, one can find the posterior probability distribution of an unknown parameter, and state the probability of vaccine efficacy rate, which makes the communication of uncertainty more flexible. We use a hypothetical example and a real baseball example to guide readers to …

Flattening The Curve: The Effects Of Intervention Strategies During Covid-19, Kelly A. Reagan, Rachel J. Pryor, Gonzalo M. Bearman, David M. Chan

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

COVID-19 has plagued countries worldwide due to its infectious nature. Social distancing and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) are two main strategies employed to prevent its spread. A SIR model with a time-dependent transmission rate is implemented to examine the effect of social distancing and PPE use in hospitals. These strategies’ effect on the size and timing of the peak number of infectious individuals are examined as well as the total number of individuals infected by the epidemic. The effect on the epidemic of when social distancing is relaxed is also examined. Overall, social distancing was shown to …

Facing The Pandemic Together: Forming A Collaborative Research Group, Michael C. Barg

CODEE Journal

This is an account of how a reading and writing project in an introductory differential equations course was transitioned to a professor-student research group collaborative project, in response to the global COVID-19 pandemic. Adapting on the fly to the ever-evolving pandemic, we collected data, estimated parameters in our models, and computed numerical solutions to SIR-based systems of differential equations. This is a description of what we did and how we found comfort in the project in this time of great uncertainty. The collaboration yielded successes and more questions than we had answers for, but the situation provided an opportunity of …

Estimated 2020 Co2 Emission Reductions In Virginia’S Transportation Sector From Covid-19, Eden E. Rakes, Pamela R. Grothe, Jeremy S. Hoffman

Virginia Journal of Science

The initial lockdown phase of the COVID-19 pandemic presented an unfortunate opportunity to observe how abrupt, large-scale changes in traffic volume can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study explores how carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from Virginia’s transportation sector may have been affected by the changes in activity stemming from COVID-19 to inform more carbon-neutral policies as the state recovers from the economic downfall. Emission savings were calculated by multiplying the percent change from 2019 to 2020 in traffic volume from the Virginia Department of Transportation with the business-as-usual 2020 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimate of CO₂ emissions …

Uncertainty Quantitative Analysis In Risk Assessment Of Returning To School In The Post-Covid-19 Era, Haibin Li, Jialiang Wang, Haiyan Li

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: After the epidemic, taking the spread of the epidemic in returning to school as an example, a quantitative risk assessment study is conducted. Taking the activity trajectory description of the whole process of susceptible individuals from infection to isolation as a clue, an epidemiological model for risk assessment is established. The number of infected persons in the risk indicators of returning to school is quantified based on the quantified model parameters. According to the value characteristics of the parameters, the number of infected persons is taken as a function of discrete random variables. The probability distribution of the infected …

Analysis Of The Commercial Real Estate Market In A Post Covid-19 World, Brandon Croom, Sean Kennedy, Sandesh Ojha, Justin Sparks

SMU Data Science Review

The volatility in the commercial real estate market has been greatly influenced by the new societal practices brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has added additional factors to already complex modeling to value and predict commercial real estate prices. Although multiple methodologies have been applied to commercial real estate valuation, these methods have not yet taken the COVID-19 pandemic factor into account. The main contribution of this article lies in developing an application for commercial real estate valuation which includes the COVID-19 pandemic factor. Thought this article a Hedonic model was developed to compare the impacts of …

Computing For Numeracy: How Safe Is Your Covid-19 Social Bubble?, Charles Connor

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic has led many people to form social bubbles. These social bubbles are small groups of people who interact with one another but restrict interactions with the outside world. The assumption in forming social bubbles is that risk of infection and severe outcomes, like hospitalization, are reduced. How effective are social bubbles? A Bayesian event tree is developed to calculate the probabilities of specific outcomes, like hospitalization, using example rates of infection in the greater community and example prior functions describing the effectiveness of isolation by members of the social bubble. The probabilities are solved for two contrasting …

Using Covid-19 Vaccine Efficacy Data To Teach One-Sample Hypothesis Testing, Frank Wang

Numeracy

In late November 2020, there was a flurry of media coverage of two companies’ claims of 95% efficacy rates of newly developed COVID-19 vaccines, but information about the confidence interval was not reported. This paper presents a way of teaching the concept of hypothesis testing and the construction of confidence intervals using numbers announced by the drug makers Pfizer and Moderna publicized by the media. Instead of a two-sample test or more complicated statistical models, we use the elementary one-proportion z-test to analyze the data. The method is designed to be accessible for students who have only taken a …

Using Calculus To Plan An Open-Air Concert, Timur Kalandarov

Undergraduate Journal of Mathematical Modeling: One + Two

A concert is a mass entertainment event held indoors, at concert halls, or outdoors (open-air festivals). These two formats differ greatly from each other. However, the goal of both events remains the same – to allow the audience to enjoy the musical performance. Indoor halls are designed for the best acoustics of sound. They are often circular and let sound waves travel around the inside of the building, like an echo bouncing back and forth. This makes the audience feel like they are surrounded by sound. Such places already have outlined spots for mounting music equipment with the highest efficiency. …

A Fuzzy Expert System For Predicting The Mortality Of Covid'19, Monika Mangla, Nonita Sharma, Poonam Mittal

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a widespread impact on health and economy across the globe. It is leading to a huge number of deaths per day. Few researchers have been attracted to analyzing the mortality rate of COVID-19 from various perspectives. During the research, it has become evident that these fatalities are not only caused by COVID19, but they are also affected by some other factors. The authors of this paper aim to encompass three important types of factors viz. risk factors, clinical factors, and miscellaneous factors that influence the mortality of COVID-19. This manuscript presents a rule-based model under …

Effects Of Covid-19 On Electric Energy Consumption In Turkey And Ann-Basedshort-Term Forecasting, Harun Özbay, Adem Dalcali

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

: Due to the coronavirus, millions of people worldwide carry out their work, education, shopping, culture, and entertainment activities from their homes now using the advantages of today's technology. Apart from this, patient care and follow-up are carried out with the help of electronic equipment especially in the institutions where health services are provided. It is important to provide a reliable electricity supply for humanity so that people can perform all these services. In this study, the outlook of energy in Turkey was examined. The current energy consumption and investments were examined. Then, the precautions by the government in the …

Soft $\Beta$-Rough Sets And Their Application To Determine Covid-19, Mostafa K. El Bably, Abd El Fattah A. El Atik

Turkish Journal of Mathematics

Soft rough set theory has been presented as a basic mathematical model for decision-making for many real-life data. However, soft rough sets are based on a possible fusion of rough sets and soft sets which were proposed by Feng et al. [20]. The main contribution of the present article is to introduce a modification and a generalization for Feng's approximations, namely, soft $\beta$-rough approximations, and some of their properties will be studied. A comparison between the suggested approximations and the previous one [20] will be discussed. Some examples are prepared to display the validness of these proposals. Finally, we put …

Comparison Of Clinically Approved Molecules On Sars-Cov-2 Drug Target Proteins: A Molecular Docking Study, Hasan Çubuk, Mehmet Özbi̇l

Turkish Journal of Chemistry

The new type of coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 has affected more than 22.6 million people worldwide. Since the first day the virus was spotted in Wuhan, China, numerous drug design studies have been conducted all over the globe. Most of these studies target the receptor-binding domain of spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, which is known to bind to the human ACE2 receptor and SARS-CoV-2 main protease, vital for the virus' replication. However, there might be a third target, human furin protease, which cleaves the virus' S1-S2 domains playing an active role in its entry into the host cell. In this study, we docked …

Synthesis And Molecular Docking Study Of Novel Covid-19 Inhibitors, Zuhal Gerçek, Deni̇z Ceyhan, Erol Erçağ

Turkish Journal of Chemistry

In 2020, the world tried to combat the corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic. A proven treatment method specific to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still not found. In this study, seven new antiviral compounds were designed for COVID-19 treatment. The ability of these compounds to inhibit COVID-19's RNA processing was calculated by the molecular docking study. It has been observed that the compounds can have high binding affinities especially against NSP12 (between -9.06 and -8.00 kcal/mol). The molecular dynamics simulation of NSP12-ZG 7 complex proved the stability of interaction. The synthesis of two most active molecules was performed by …

Subjective Analysis Of Social Distance Monitoring Using Yolo V3 Architecture Andcrowd Tracking System, Muhammed Murat Özbek, Mustafa Syed, İlkay Öksüz

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

The lethal infection, World Health Organization (WHO) reported coronavirus (COVID-19) as a pandemic.Lack of proper vaccine, low levels of immunity against COVID-19 has led to vulnerability of the human beings. Due tolack of efficient vaccine treatment, the only options left to fight against this pandemic are lockdown and social distance.This work offers an autonomous monitoring system on social distancing using deep learning techniques. The proposedarchitecture tracks the humans on roads and calculates their distance between each other. This surveillance detects thefurore violation of social distance utilizing CCTV cameras. The proposed framework uses YOLO v3 object-detectionmodel built on COCO dataset and …

A Deep Transfer Learning Based Model For Automatic Detection Of Covid-19from Chest X-Rays, Prateek Chhikara, Prakhar Gupta, Prabhjot Singh, Tarunpreet Bhatia

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

Deep learning in medical imaging has revolutionized the way we interpret medical data, as high computational devices' capabilities are far more than their creators. With the pandemic causing havoc for the second straight year, the findings in our paper will allow researchers worldwide to use and create state-of-the-art models to detect affected persons before it reaches the R number. The paper proposes an automated diagnostic tool using the deep learning models on chest x-rays as an input to reach a point where we surpass this pandemic (COVID-19 disease). A deep transfer learning-based model for automatic detection of COVID-19 from chest …

A Transfer Learning-Based Deep Learning Approach For Automated Covid-19diagnosis With Audio Data, Devri̇m Akgün, Abdullah Talha Kabakuş, Zehra Karapinar Şentürk, Arafat Şentürk, Enver Küçükkülahli

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused millions of deaths and changed daily life globally. Countries have declared a half or full lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19. According to medical doctors, as many people as possible should be tested to identify their status, and corresponding actions then should be taken for COVID-19 positive cases. Despite the clear necessity of these medical tests, many countries are still struggling to acquire them. This fact clearly indicates the necessity of a large-scale, cheap, fast, and accurate alternative prescreening tool that can be used for the diagnosis of COVID-19 while waiting for the medical …

Towards An Ontology-Based Approach To The "New Normality" After Covid-19:The Spanish Case During Pandemic First Wave, Evelio Gonzalez

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

The impact of the pandemic caused by COVID-19 has been immense in all fields of human activity. In most of the affected countries, the authorities have decreed a series of legal measures to try to stop the growth of the disease and the number of people affected by it. These legal measures involved, in most cases, restrictions on the free movement of people and on work and trade activities, new hygiene procedures, and social distancing. In the particular case of Spain, the rapid evolution of the pandemic led to the declaration of a so-called state of alarm and a period …