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Full-Text Articles in International Public Health

Intensive Animal Farming Conditions Are A Major Threat To Global Health, Cynthia Schuck-Paim Aug 2020

Intensive Animal Farming Conditions Are A Major Threat To Global Health, Cynthia Schuck-Paim

Animal Sentience

Wiebers & Feigin accurately propose that reducing the risks posed by infectious disease outbreaks and other global health challenges will depend critically on transitioning away from intensive animal farming practices. Creating the right incentive structure for this transition to happen is one of the great challenges in the years to come, but a much-needed step to ensure the health and well-being of current and future generations.


Impact Of 2012 Spanish Health Care Reform On Hiv-Positive Immigrants: A Mixed Methods Approach, Megi Gogishvili Aug 2020

Impact Of 2012 Spanish Health Care Reform On Hiv-Positive Immigrants: A Mixed Methods Approach, Megi Gogishvili

Dissertations and Theses

Background: The financial crisis of 2008 hit Spain hard. As a consequence, the government took multiple austerity measures, including reforms in the healthcare system in 2012. Specifically, the government reduced the budget for health and social services by 13.7% in 2012.The reduction was further followed with structural changes via the 2012 Royal Decree Law (RDL) and Royal Decree (RD).The 2012 RDL and RD entailed broad areas of action,but most importantly the Spanish National Health System (SNS) no longer covered undocumented immigrants. The 2012 RDL and RD excluded approximately 500,000 undocumented immigrants from SNS.

The number of immigrants in Spain has …


We Are Not Alone In Trying To Be Alone, Patricia C. Lopes Jun 2020

We Are Not Alone In Trying To Be Alone, Patricia C. Lopes

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Certain diseases, like colds, tend not to stop us. A paracetamol here, an ibuprofen there, and we are on the go. That is, until we, as a species, are faced with a virus that not only spreads through social contact, but has an estimated reproductive number of 2 to 2.5 and potentially kills 3–4% of those infected (WHO, 2020). To reduce transmission probability of COVID-19, governmental agencies around the world have recommended or enforced measures to decrease social contact; early evidence suggests these measures produce the intended effect (Kucharski et al., 2020).


Impacts Of Rift Valley Fever Virus: A One Health Approach To Assess Burden And Inform Prevention And Control Options, Catherine Machalaba Jun 2020

Impacts Of Rift Valley Fever Virus: A One Health Approach To Assess Burden And Inform Prevention And Control Options, Catherine Machalaba

Dissertations and Theses

Background: Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-sensitive emerging zoonotic disease associated with large-scale livestock production losses and human disease burden in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. While recognized as a key One Health issue based on its transmission dynamics involving human, animal and environmental determinants, there has been poor coordination between sectors to reduce the risk and impact of RVF. Efforts to counter the disease remain largely reactive, presenting an ongoing threat to local and global health security. The intent of this dissertation was to improve understanding of the burden of RVF across society and to identify entry …


Reduction Of Secondary Transmission Of Sars-Cov-2 In Households By Face Mask Use, Disinfection And Social Distancing: A Cohort Study In Beijing, China, Yu Wang, Huaiyu Tian, Li Zhang, Dandan Guo, Wenting Wu, Xingxing Zhang, Ge Lin Kan, Lei Jia, Da Huo, Beiwei Liu, Xiaoli Wang, Ying Sun, Quanyi Wang, Peng Yang, C. Raina Macintyre May 2020

Reduction Of Secondary Transmission Of Sars-Cov-2 In Households By Face Mask Use, Disinfection And Social Distancing: A Cohort Study In Beijing, China, Yu Wang, Huaiyu Tian, Li Zhang, Dandan Guo, Wenting Wu, Xingxing Zhang, Ge Lin Kan, Lei Jia, Da Huo, Beiwei Liu, Xiaoli Wang, Ying Sun, Quanyi Wang, Peng Yang, C. Raina Macintyre

Environmental & Global Health Faculty Research

Introduction Transmission of COVID-19 within families and close contacts accounts for the majority of epidemic growth. Community mask wearing, hand washing and social distancing are thought to be effective but there is little evidence to inform or support community members on COVID-19 risk reduction within families. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 335 people in 124 families and with at least one laboratory confirmed COVID-19 case was conducted from 28 February to 27 March 2020, in Beijing, China. The outcome of interest was secondary transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) within the family. Characteristics and practices of …


The Covid-19 Pandemic And The Power Of Numbers, Jessica Ancker May 2020

The Covid-19 Pandemic And The Power Of Numbers, Jessica Ancker

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced a deluge of news coverage of quantitative concepts. In this viewpoint, we provide examples of effective and poor quantitative communication by the professional news media as well as social media communicators. Effective examples include a number of online animations and engaging interactive simulations. Examples of poor quantitative communication include the widespread reporting of raw numbers rather than rates, failing to address uncertainty, not providing sufficient context for numbers, and not discussing the implications of false negative and false positive diagnostic test results. Educators can draw from this body of news to develop compelling quantitative literacy …


How Misinformation And Mistrust Compound The Threat Of Epidemics, William Boyd May 2020

How Misinformation And Mistrust Compound The Threat Of Epidemics, William Boyd

Honors Theses

This thesis was conducted to study the effects of misinformation and medical mistrust on the public health field. I use the events of the Chapare Virus outbreak in Bolivia in the summer of 2019 and the public dialogue during that time period to discuss these themes. I used data from market survey's in La Paz, newspaper articles from Página Siete, and Tweets from the time period of the outbreak. My findings suggest that misinformation and medical mistrust affected public health measures, which has major implications for the way the public health field should address future public health events.


How Immune T-Cell Augmentation Can Help Prevent Covid-19: A Possible Nutritional Solution Using Ketogenic Lifestyle, Ravi K. Kamepalli Md,Fidsa,Cwsp Apr 2020

How Immune T-Cell Augmentation Can Help Prevent Covid-19: A Possible Nutritional Solution Using Ketogenic Lifestyle, Ravi K. Kamepalli Md,Fidsa,Cwsp

The University of Louisville Journal of Respiratory Infections

No abstract provided.


Vaccines In Current Culture: The Hpv Vaccine Controversy, Alyssa Johnston Apr 2020

Vaccines In Current Culture: The Hpv Vaccine Controversy, Alyssa Johnston

Senior Honors Theses

The use of vaccinations has drastically decreased mortality and morbidity rates related to infectious disease and has become an intrinsic part of modern health care. However, the fear of risks related to vaccines has been partially responsible for the decisions of many parents to delay or avoid vaccinating their children. The human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine specifically is one of the most controversial vaccines in current culture due to reports of new onset or exacerbation of autoimmune diseases, infertility, and even death following its administration. This review synthesizes information regarding the relevance and safety of the HPV vaccine, as well …


484— Modeling Social Distancing Methods And Their Effectiveness In Combating The Spread Of Ebola, Rachel Fair Apr 2020

484— Modeling Social Distancing Methods And Their Effectiveness In Combating The Spread Of Ebola, Rachel Fair

GREAT Day Posters

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a rare but severe disease that is transmitted among humans through direct-contact with, and close proximity to, infected bodily fluids. From 2014-16, West Africa experienced the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded, infecting over 28,000 people, and killing over 11,000. Although the symptoms of EVD are treatable, the disease can be extremely deadly, with an average of 50% EVD cases resulting in fatality. In areas where healthcare is scarce and vaccinations are not readily available, the practices of social distancing and self-quarantining have been shown to be highly effective in combating the spread of EVD. To …


El Rol Del Gobierno En Las Campañas Sanitarias De Vih, Covid-19 E Influenza, Sydney Reyes Apr 2020

El Rol Del Gobierno En Las Campañas Sanitarias De Vih, Covid-19 E Influenza, Sydney Reyes

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Research Question: What are the differences and similarities between the three health campaigns — the flu, HIV, and COVID-19 — that the Chilean government has spread to population?

Objectives: The primary objective of this study was to describe and compare the three public health campaigns — the flu, HIV, and COVID-19 — to examine the role that the Chilean government has in health education and heath promotion. The secondary objectives were to identify the differences in national health campaigns and regional campaigns as well as to show the interactions between health campaigns and indigenous people. Overall, the research project looked …


On The Inadequacy Of Species Distribution Models For Modelling The Spread Of Sars-Cov-2: Response To Araújo And Naimi, Joseph D. Chipperfield, Blas M. Benito, Robert B. O'Hara, Richard J. Telford, Colin J. Carlson Mar 2020

On The Inadequacy Of Species Distribution Models For Modelling The Spread Of Sars-Cov-2: Response To Araújo And Naimi, Joseph D. Chipperfield, Blas M. Benito, Robert B. O'Hara, Richard J. Telford, Colin J. Carlson

United States Public Health Resources

The ongoing pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is causing significant damage to public health and economic livelihoods, and is putting significant strains on healthcare services globally. This unfolding emergency has prompted the preparation and dissemination of the article “Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus likely to be constrained by climate” by Araújo and Naimi (2020). The authors present the results of an ensemble forecast made from a suite of species distribution models (SDMs), where they attempt to predict the suitability of the climate for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 over the coming months. They argue that climate is …


What's The Flap About Coronavirus?, V. Ramana Dhara Jan 2020

What's The Flap About Coronavirus?, V. Ramana Dhara

Journal of Health Ethics

This is a haiku about the vectors, modes of transmission and spread of SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2


Mapping Misinformation In The Coronavirus Outbreak, Ana Santos Rutschman Jan 2020

Mapping Misinformation In The Coronavirus Outbreak, Ana Santos Rutschman

All Faculty Scholarship

The coronavirus outbreak has sent ripples of fear and confusion across the world. These sentiments—and our collective responses to the outbreak—are made worse by rampant misinformation surrounding the new strain of the virus, COVID-2019. In this post, I survey some of the most pervasive areas of tentacular coronavirus-related misinformation that has proliferated online -- as well as the responses of social media companies like YouTube, Facebook, Pinterest and TikTok that may ultimately prove inadequate given the magnitude of the problem.


Covid-19: A Simple Curve Approximation Tool, Jane Courtney Jan 2020

Covid-19: A Simple Curve Approximation Tool, Jane Courtney

Articles

In the current COVID-19 pandemic, much focus is put on ‘flattening the curve’. This ‘curve’ refers to the cases versus time graph, which shows the rise of a disease to its peak before descending. The aim in a pandemic is to flatten this curve by reducing the peak and spreading out the timeline. However, the models used to predict this curve are often not clearly outlined, no model parameters are given, and models are not tested against real data. This lack of detail makes it difficult to recreate the curve from these models. What is much needed is a simple …


Mers-Cov Infection In South Korea And Strategies For Possible Future Outbreak: Narrative Review, Chulwoo Park Dec 2019

Mers-Cov Infection In South Korea And Strategies For Possible Future Outbreak: Narrative Review, Chulwoo Park

Faculty Publications

Although there were some positive viewpoints from international press and academia that the Republic of Korea (hereafter South Korea) successfully controlled the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in 2015, the domestic point of view towards the MERS response in South Korea was critical. As people in the world’s 11th largest economy, South Koreans criticized the failure of hospitals’ initial response to the MERS index case and the lack of a proper control strategy for secondary and tertiary cases. To contain the MERS outbreak, South Korea implemented mainly three MERS control and intervention strategies: quarantine and isolation system, temporary closure …


Women And Hiv: Understanding And Addressing Stigma—Evidence From The Population Council, Population Council Jan 2019

Women And Hiv: Understanding And Addressing Stigma—Evidence From The Population Council, Population Council

HIV and AIDS

Over the last 20 years, the Population Council has carried out extensive work examining the intersection of stigma and gender and its impact on HIV-related outcomes. This brief summarizes key Population Council findings from a range of studies which elucidate the experiences of stigma among women and highlights avenues for addressing stigma to mitigate women’s risk and burden of HIV.


An Assessment Of Cultural Perceptions And Recognition Of Ebola Virus Disease, And Its Correlation With Traditional Burial Practice In Rural Guinea, Chulwoo Park, Amira Roess, Sally Lahm, Mamadou Kally Bah, Mohamed Campel Camara, John Sandberg Apr 2018

An Assessment Of Cultural Perceptions And Recognition Of Ebola Virus Disease, And Its Correlation With Traditional Burial Practice In Rural Guinea, Chulwoo Park, Amira Roess, Sally Lahm, Mamadou Kally Bah, Mohamed Campel Camara, John Sandberg

GW Research Days 2016 - 2020

Background:

In the midst of the unprecedented Ebola outbreak in West Africa during 2014-2016, the humanitarian response to control the disease was hampered in part because there was a limited understanding of local traditional rituals or indigenous medicine (ethnomedicine) on the part of the responders. The Ebola outbreak claimed 11,310 lives, more than all other outbreaks combined. West African burial funeral ceremonies and surrounding rituals may have hindered interventions that included the forceful removal of the sick or dead from the community.

Objective:

Our objective was to understand transmission associated with traditional burial practices in rural Guinea. Through the lens …


Guinea-Bissau: Hiv/Aids, Matt Macarthur Jan 2018

Guinea-Bissau: Hiv/Aids, Matt Macarthur

Global Public Health

This public health brief investigates the concern of HIV/AIDS in Guinea-Bissau. Guinea-Bissau is a low-income country run by a semi-presidential government. The government has been very unstable since its formation. A variety of internal conflicts have limited the effectiveness of the government. As a result, there is little money to provide proper treatment for individuals with HIV/AIDS. It is important to get tested for this condition as soon as symptoms occur, but due to limited resources that is not always possible. Guinea-Bissau has a very high fertility rate compared to other countries worldwide, this allows for a high mother-to-child transmission …


Somalia: Rift Valley Fever, Alyson Meeks Jan 2018

Somalia: Rift Valley Fever, Alyson Meeks

Global Public Health

This walks readers through the basic demographics of Somalia, a country located in the horn of Africa. After learning about the government in Somalia and the problems that the people of the country face, this focuses on the problem of Rift Valley Fever. Rift Valley Fever is a virus that year after year strikes Somalia and surrounding countries. Weather patterns seem to help predict when Rift Valley Fever will be at the highest risk for an outbreak. This outlines the steps the current government and people are trying to take to help prevent outbreaks of RVF. But the solutions currently …


Northern Mariana Islands: Hepatitis B, Dennis Thornton Jan 2018

Northern Mariana Islands: Hepatitis B, Dennis Thornton

Global Public Health

The Northern Mariana Islands consists of a group of Islands in the Pacific Ocean that are a United States commonwealth, meaning that they are technically a part of the United States and follow our government, which is a constitutional republic. This string of islands has had a problem with Hepatitis B in the past. This is a problem for all genders, and all ages, but is most common among drug users, diabetics, and individuals who engage in sexual acts with multiple partners. This illness attacks a person's bloodstream and can be serious enough to cause liver failure and extreme pain …


Factors Associated With Viral Non-Suppression Among Adolescents Living With Hiv In Cambodia: A Cross-Sectional Study, Kolab Chhim, Gitau Mburu, Sovannary Tuot, Ratana Sopha, Vohith Khol, Pheak Chhoun, Siyan Yi Jan 2018

Factors Associated With Viral Non-Suppression Among Adolescents Living With Hiv In Cambodia: A Cross-Sectional Study, Kolab Chhim, Gitau Mburu, Sovannary Tuot, Ratana Sopha, Vohith Khol, Pheak Chhoun, Siyan Yi


Background

Adolescents living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) have worse treatment adherence, viral suppression, and mortality rates compared to adults. This study investigated factors associated with viral non-suppression among adolescents living with HIV in Cambodia.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted in August 2016 among 328 adolescents living with HIV aged 15–17 years who were randomly selected from 11 ART clinics in the capital city of Phnom Penh and 10 other provinces. Clinical and immunological data, including CD4 count and viral load, were obtained from medical records at ART clinics. Adolescents were categorized as having achieved viral suppression if …


Gender Differences In Virologic Response After Antiretroviral Therapy In Treatment-Naïve Hiv-Infected Individuals: Results From The 550 Clinic Hiv Cohort Study., Andrea Reyes-Vega, Alejandra Loban, Kavitha Srinivasan, Stephen P. Furmanek, Conner English, Mary Bishop, Cathy Spencer, Daniel Truelove, Julio A. Ramirez, Anupama Raghuram, Paula Peyrani Oct 2017

Gender Differences In Virologic Response After Antiretroviral Therapy In Treatment-Naïve Hiv-Infected Individuals: Results From The 550 Clinic Hiv Cohort Study., Andrea Reyes-Vega, Alejandra Loban, Kavitha Srinivasan, Stephen P. Furmanek, Conner English, Mary Bishop, Cathy Spencer, Daniel Truelove, Julio A. Ramirez, Anupama Raghuram, Paula Peyrani

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

Background

Controversy still exists regarding gender differences in virologic response between treatment-na•ve HIV-infected individuals. The objective of this study was to evaluate gender difference in virologic and immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy in treatment-na•ve HIV-infected individuals. Methods

This was a retrospective, observational study of treatment-na•ve HIV-infected individuals managed at the 550 clinic who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) between January 1st, 2010 and December 31, 2015. Patients with available viral load and CD4 counts before and one year after initiating ART were included in this study. Virologic suppression was defined as < 48 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL, and mmunologic recovery was defined as a CD4 count increase of at least 150 cells/mm3. Dichotomous variables were reported in number and percentages and analyzed using Chi-squared tests and Fisher’s exact (whichever was appropriate). Continuous variables were reported as median and interquartile range (IQR) and analyzed using Wilcox rank-sum tests. Multivariate analyses performed were logistic regressions with adjustment for other covariates. P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. R version 3.3.2 was used for the statistical analysis. Results

A total of 70 women and 90 men were included …


Natural History Of Hpv Infection Across The Lifespan: Role Of Viral Latency., Patti E Gravitt, Rachel L Winer Sep 2017

Natural History Of Hpv Infection Across The Lifespan: Role Of Viral Latency., Patti E Gravitt, Rachel L Winer

Global Health Faculty Publications

Large-scale epidemiologic studies have been invaluable for elaboration of the causal relationship between persistent detection of genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and the development of invasive cervical cancer. However, these studies provide limited data to adequately inform models of the individual-level natural history of HPV infection over the course of a lifetime, and particularly ignore the biological distinction between HPV-negative tests and lack of infection (i.e., the possibility of latent, undetectable HPV infection). Using data from more recent epidemiological studies, this review proposes an alternative model of the natural history of genital HPV across the life span. We argue that …


Trinidad & Tobago : Hiv Epidemic, Madison Caldwell Jan 2017

Trinidad & Tobago : Hiv Epidemic, Madison Caldwell

Global Public Health

Trinidad and Tobago are twin islands located in the Caribbean off the coast of Venezuela. In the recent years since about 1990, citizens of this country have been greatly affected by the HIV epidemic. HIV stands for human immunodeficiency virus and is spread through infected seman, blood, or vaginal fluids usually through sexual intercourse. As this virus continues to progress in the body, it will eventually turn into AIDS, which stands for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Once HIV progresses to AIDS, the outcome is ultimately fatal, hence why there is a dire need to promote awareness and methods of intervention to …


Chad : Hepatitis E, Hanna Pegarsch Jan 2017

Chad : Hepatitis E, Hanna Pegarsch

Global Public Health

Contaminated drinking water in Chad is the main source for a Hepatitis E outbreak, leading Chad citizens to develop severe illness including jaundice, liver-failure, miscarriage, and death. There are 0.4 physicians for every 10,000 people living in Chad needing healthcare. Of the citizens in Chad, only 42% have access to uncontaminated drinking water. With such a long incubation period for Hepatitis E, the citizens don’t know they are spreading the illness to the rest of their community. Even with the symptoms, the citizens don’t have the access or the capacity for treatment, making Hepatitis E an epidemic in Chad.


Changing Hearts And Minds: Results From A Multi-Country Gender And Sexual Diversity Training, Tonia Poteat, Chulwoo Park, Diego Solares, John K. Williams, R. Cameron Wolf, Noah Metheny, Andrea Vazzano, Juan Dent, Ashley Gibbs, Bareng Aletta Sanny Nonyane, Nora Toiv Jan 2017

Changing Hearts And Minds: Results From A Multi-Country Gender And Sexual Diversity Training, Tonia Poteat, Chulwoo Park, Diego Solares, John K. Williams, R. Cameron Wolf, Noah Metheny, Andrea Vazzano, Juan Dent, Ashley Gibbs, Bareng Aletta Sanny Nonyane, Nora Toiv

Faculty Publications

Engaging key populations, including gender and sexual minorities, is essential to meeting global targets for reducing new HIV infections and improving the HIV continuum of care. Negative attitudes toward gender and sexual minorities serve as a barrier to political will and effective programming for HIV health services. The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), established in 2003, provided Gender and Sexual Diversity Trainings for 2,825 participants including PEPFAR staff and program implementers, U.S. government staff, and local stakeholders in 38 countries. The outcomes of these one-day trainings were evaluated among a subset of participants using a mixed methods pre- …


Perspectives On Model Forecasts Of The 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic In West Africa: Lessons And The Way Forward, Gerardo Chowell, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani Jan 2017

Perspectives On Model Forecasts Of The 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic In West Africa: Lessons And The Way Forward, Gerardo Chowell, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani

Global Health Faculty Publications

The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here, we provide a perspective on some of the challenges and lessons drawn from these efforts, …


Progress Toward Eliminating Mother To Child Transmission Of Hiv In Kenya: Review Of Treatment Guideline Uptake And Pediatric Transmission At Four Government Hospitals Between 2010 And 2012., Sarah Finocchario-Kessler, Kristine F. Clark, Samoel Khamadi, Brad J. Gautney, Vincent Okoth, Kathy Goggin, Hitsystem Study Team Nov 2016

Progress Toward Eliminating Mother To Child Transmission Of Hiv In Kenya: Review Of Treatment Guideline Uptake And Pediatric Transmission At Four Government Hospitals Between 2010 And 2012., Sarah Finocchario-Kessler, Kristine F. Clark, Samoel Khamadi, Brad J. Gautney, Vincent Okoth, Kathy Goggin, Hitsystem Study Team

Manuscripts, Articles, Book Chapters and Other Papers

We analyzed prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) data from a retrospective cohort of n = 1365 HIV+ mothers who enrolled their HIV-exposed infants in early infant diagnosis services in four Kenyan government hospitals from 2010 to 2012. Less than 15 and 20 % of mother-infant pairs were provided with regimens that met WHO Option A and B/B+ guidelines, respectively. Annually, the gestational age at treatment initiation decreased, while uptake of Option B/B+ increased (all p's < 0.001). Pediatric HIV infection was halved (8.6-4.3 %), yet varied significantly by hospital. In multivariable analyses, HIV-exposed infants who received no PMTCT (AOR 4.6 [2.49, 8.62], p < 0.001), mixed foods (AOR 5.0 [2.77, 9.02], p < 0.001), and care at one of the four hospitals (AOR 3.0 [1.51, 5.92], p = 0.002) were more likely to be HIV-infected. While the administration and uptake of WHO PMTCT guidelines is improving, an expanded focus on retention and medication adherence will further reduce pediatric HIV transmission.


Testing Modeling Assumptions In The West Africa Ebola Outbreak, Matthew C. Ingram, Keith Burghardt, Christopher Verzijl, Junming Huang, Binyang Song, Marie-Pierre Hasne Oct 2016

Testing Modeling Assumptions In The West Africa Ebola Outbreak, Matthew C. Ingram, Keith Burghardt, Christopher Verzijl, Junming Huang, Binyang Song, Marie-Pierre Hasne

Political Science Faculty Scholarship

The Ebola virus in West Africa has infected almost 30,000 and killed over 11,000 people. Recent models of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have often made assumptions about how the disease spreads, such as uniform transmissibility and homogeneous mixing within a population. In this paper, we test whether these assumptions are necessarily correct, and offer simple solutions that may improve disease model accuracy. First, we use data and models of West African migration to show that EVD does not homogeneously mix, but spreads in a predictable manner. Next, we estimate the initial growth rate of EVD within country administrative divisions and …