Epidemiology Commons^™

A Review Of Macrolide Based Regimens For Community-Acquired Pneumonia, Forest W. Arnold, Leslie A. Beavin

The University of Louisville Journal of Respiratory Infections

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) has significant morbidity and mortality. The Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society (IDSA/ATS) guidelines recommend two antimicrobial regimens for hospitalized patients with CAP, one of which includes a macrolide, and one of which does not. Both regimens have antimicrobial properties, but macrolides also possess immunomodulatory properties. Macrolides, however, may also have potential arrhythmia adverse effects. The purpose of this review is to provide an update of studies evaluating outcomes for patients with CAP treated with or without a macrolide-based regimen. Two recent randomized controlled trials conflict with each other regarding the benefit versus noninferiority of including …

Global Stability Of Nonlinear Stochastic Sei Epidemic Model With Fluctuations In Transmission Rate Of Disease, Olusegun Michael Otunuga

Mathematics Faculty Research

We derive and analyze the dynamic of a stochastic SEI epidemic model for disease spread. Fluctuations in the transmission rate of the disease bring about stochasticity in model. We discuss the asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium by first deriving the closed form deterministic (R₀) and stochastic (R₀) basic reproductive number. Contrary to some author’s remark that different diffusion rates have no effect on the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, we showed that even if no epidemic invasion occurs with respect to the deterministic version of the SEI model (i.e., R₀ < 1), epidemic can still grow initially (if R₀ > 1) …

Association Of Body Mass Index With Dna Methylation And Gene Expression In Blood Cells And Relations To Cardiometabolic Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Approach, Michael M. Mendelson, Riccardo E. Marioni, Roby Joehanes, Chunyu Liu, Åsa K. Hedman, Stella Aslibekyan, Ellen W. Demerath, Weihua Guan, Degui Zhi, Chen Yao, Tianxiao Huan, Christine Willinger, Brian Chen, Paul Courchesne, Michael Multhaup, Marguerite R. Irvin, Ariella Cohain, Eric E. Schadt, Megan L. Grove, Jan Bressler, Kari North, Johan Sundström, Stefan Gustafsson, Sonia Shah, Allan F. Mcrae, Sarah E. Harris, Jude Gibson, Paul Redmond, Janie Corley, Lee Murphy, Donna K. Arnett

Epidemiology and Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Background

The link between DNA methylation, obesity, and adiposity-related diseases in the general population remains uncertain.

Methods and Findings

We conducted an association study of body mass index (BMI) and differential methylation for over 400,000 CpGs assayed by microarray in whole-blood-derived DNA from 3,743 participants in the Framingham Heart Study and the Lothian Birth Cohorts, with independent replication in three external cohorts of 4,055 participants. We examined variations in whole blood gene expression and conducted Mendelian randomization analyses to investigate the functional and clinical relevance of the findings. We identified novel and previously reported BMI-related differential methylation at 83 CpGs …

Recurrent Pneumonia Among Japanese Adults: Disease Burden And Risk Factors, Tomoko Ishifuji, Eiichiro Sando, Norihiro Kaneko, Motoi Suzuki, Paul E. Kilgore, Koya Ariyoshi, Konosuke Morimoto, Naoto Hosokawa, Makito Yaegashi, Masahiro Aoshima, Adult Pneumonia Study Group - Japan (Apsg-J)

Department of Pharmacy Practice

Background: In Japan and other societies with rapidly aging populations, recurrent pneumonia (RP) is a major clinical problem yet only limited information exists regarding the burden of this disease.

Methods: A prospective study of adult pneumonia was conducted to investigate the incidence of RP and potential risk factors. From February 1, 2012 to January 31, 2013, patients aged ≥ 15 years who were diagnosed with pneumonia were prospectively enrolled in a representative community hospital located in central Japan. Patients were followed for one-year to evaluate the recurrence of pneumonia and characteristics associated with RP. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed …

Exploring Sexual And Behavioral Health Inequities Among College Students: A Need For Lgb-Specific Risk Reduction, Todd M. Sabato

Journal of Health Disparities Research and Practice

Many studies have examined differences in sexual behavior based upon self-identified sexual orientation, with results often indicating that those with same-sex partners engage in greater risk behaviors than those with opposite sex partners. However, few of those studies consisted of large, national sample studies. To address that gap, the present study examined the relationship between sexual orientation and both behavioral and sexual health outcomes in a national sample of U.S. college students. The Fall 2012 through Spring 2014 American College Health Association National College Health Assessment was used to examine behavioral and sexual health related responses from self-identified heterosexual, gay, …

Overcoming Recruitment Challenges: A Pilot Study In Arab Americans, Nawar M. Shara, Sayf A. Yassin, Soleman H. Abu-Bader, Asqual Getaneh, Shaunagh Browning, Alexander Zeymo, Barbara V. Howard, Zeid Abudiab, Anas Shahrour, Jason G. Umans

Journal of Health Disparities Research and Practice

While diabetes prevalence and cardiovascular risk factors have been increasing among Arab populations worldwide, few studies of Arab Americans have been conducted because of the difficulty in recruiting Arab American participants. Cultural sensitivity and social awareness of different immigrant groups could ensure successful recruitment and retention in clinical studies. While the primary objective of our overall research project was to determine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Arab Americans, the focus of this article is to describe the methodology used to overcome challenges in recruiting and enrolling Arab Americans for a community-based study. We used novel methods, including open houses, …

Research Methods In Occupational Health Psychology, Irvin Sam Schonfeld, Chu-Hsiang Chang

Publications and Research

http://www.springerpub.com/occupational-health-psychology.html

Occupational Health Psychology (OHP) is a rapidly expanding interdisciplinary field that focuses on the science and practice of psychology in promoting and developing workplace health- and safety-related initiatives. This comprehensive text for undergraduate and graduate survey courses is the first to encompass a wide range of key issues in OHP. It draws from the domains of psychology, public health, preventive medicine,nursing, industrial engineering, law, and epidemiology to focus on the theory and practice of protecting and promoting the health, well-being, and safety of individuals in the workplace and improving the quality of work life.

The text addresses key psychosocial …

Gender Differences In Hiv Care Among Criminal Justice-Involved Persons: Baseline Data From The Care+ Corrections Study., Curt Beckwith, Breana Uhrig Castonguay, Claudia Trezza, Lauri Bazerman, Rudy Patrick, Alice Cates, Halli Olsen, Ann Kurth, Tao Liu, James Peterson, Irene Kuo

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: HIV-infected individuals recently released from incarceration have suboptimal linkage and engagement in community HIV care. We conducted a study to evaluate an information and communication technology intervention to increase linkage to community care among HIV-infected persons recently involved in the criminal justice (CJ) system. Baseline characteristics including risk behaviors and HIV care indicators are reported and stratified by gender.

METHODS: We recruited HIV-infected individuals in the District of Columbia jail and persons with a recent history of incarceration through community and street outreach. Participants completed a baseline computer-assisted personal interview regarding HIV care and antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence, substance …

Use Of National Standards To Monitor Hiv Care And Treatment In A High Prevalence City-Washington, Dc., Amanda D Castel, Arpi Terzian, Rachel Hart, Nabil Rayeed, Mariah M Kalmin, Heather Young, Alan E Greenberg

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

We sought to benchmark the quality of HIV care being received by persons living with HIV in care in Washington, DC and identify individual-level and structural-level differences. Data from the DC Cohort, an observational HIV cohort of persons receiving outpatient care in DC, were used to estimate the Institute of Medicine (IOM) and Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) quality of care measures. Differences in care by demographics and clinic type were assessed using χ2 tests and multivariable regression models. Among 8,047 participants, by HHS standards, 69% of participants were retained in care (RIC), 95% were prescribed antiretroviral therapy …

Trinidad & Tobago : Hiv Epidemic, Madison Caldwell

Global Public Health

Trinidad and Tobago are twin islands located in the Caribbean off the coast of Venezuela. In the recent years since about 1990, citizens of this country have been greatly affected by the HIV epidemic. HIV stands for human immunodeficiency virus and is spread through infected seman, blood, or vaginal fluids usually through sexual intercourse. As this virus continues to progress in the body, it will eventually turn into AIDS, which stands for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Once HIV progresses to AIDS, the outcome is ultimately fatal, hence why there is a dire need to promote awareness and methods of intervention to …

Malta : Natural Freshwater Resources, Lisamarie Pereira

Global Public Health

The aim of this paper is to discuss Malta’s struggle with limited natural freshwater resources. Malta currently uses aquifers to obtain natural freshwater. For over a decade, aquifers have been under pressure from over-abstraction. Due to this issue, Malta has not been able to obtain enough natural freshwater for agriculture and basic living. The biggest risk due to over-abstraction is retrieving a smaller volume of freshwater. In Malta’s attempted interventions, the biggest issue is the Maltese government’s misconceptions. The Maltese government believes the country has unlimited natural freshwater resources. Due to this misconception, nothing is being done to actively fix …

Nepal : Healthcare And Sanitation Issues Resulting From Frequent Natural Disasters In Nepal, Jake Lauderdale

Global Public Health

This Public Health Brief calls to attention the issues plaguing Nepal as a result of both frequent natural disasters and poor healthcare infrastructure. The geographic characteristics of Nepal are shown to be a major factor in the damage and aftermath of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Due to its status as a poor and economically weakened country, Nepal must rely heavily on outside aid in order to alleviate the pressure of frequently occurring natural disasters. Despite work being done by several Non-Governmental Organizations, Nepal has a long way to go before they are able to independently manage the outcomes of …

Chad : Hepatitis E, Hanna Pegarsch

Global Public Health

Contaminated drinking water in Chad is the main source for a Hepatitis E outbreak, leading Chad citizens to develop severe illness including jaundice, liver-failure, miscarriage, and death. There are 0.4 physicians for every 10,000 people living in Chad needing healthcare. Of the citizens in Chad, only 42% have access to uncontaminated drinking water. With such a long incubation period for Hepatitis E, the citizens don’t know they are spreading the illness to the rest of their community. Even with the symptoms, the citizens don’t have the access or the capacity for treatment, making Hepatitis E an epidemic in Chad.

Liberia : Maternal Health & Ebola, Chelsey Hernandez

Global Public Health

Throughout the world, many low-income countries suffer from poor nutrition, lack of health resources, and little to no access to other valuable resources. Previous research has demonstrated the poor state of health in Liberia as a result of these various socioeconomic factors. Although Liberia faces many public health issues, the 2014 Ebola epidemic reversed whatever progress was made. Maternal and child health in particular has severely decreased, especially in recent years. This brief focuses on the impact of the 2014 Ebola epidemic had on maternal health.

Conventional Early Infant Diagnosis In Lesotho From Specimen Collection To Results Usage To Manage Patients: Where Are The Bottlenecks?, Appolinaire Tiam, Michelle M Gill, Heather J Hoffman, Anthony Isavwa, Mafusi Mokone, Matokelo Foso, Jeffrey T Safrit, Lynne M Mofenson, Thorkild Tylleskär, Laura Guay

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

INTRODUCTION: Early infant diagnosis is an important step in identifying children infected with HIV during the perinatal period or in utero. Multiple factors contribute to delayed antiretroviral treatment initiation for HIV-infected children, including delays in the early infant HIV diagnosis cascade.

METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study to evaluate early infant diagnosis turnaround times in Lesotho. Trained staff reviewed records of HIV-exposed infants (aged-6-8 weeks) who received an HIV test during 2011. Study sites were drawn from Highlands, Foothills and Lowlands regions of Lesotho. Central laboratory database data were linked to facility and laboratory register information. Turnaround time geometric means …

Conventional Early Infant Diagnosis In Lesotho From Specimen Collection To Results Usage To Manage Patients: Where Are The Bottlenecks?, Appolinaire Tiam, Michelle M Gill, Heather J Hoffman, Anthony Isavwa, Mafusi Mokone, Matokelo Foso, Jeffrey T Safrit, Lynne M Mofenson, Thorkild Tylleskär, Laura Guay

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Introduction

Early infant diagnosis is an important step in identifying children infected with HIV during the perinatal period or in utero. Multiple factors contribute to delayed antiretroviral treatment initiation for HIV-infected children, including delays in the early infant HIV diagnosis cascade.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study to evaluate early infant diagnosis turnaround times in Lesotho. Trained staff reviewed records of HIV-exposed infants (aged-6-8 weeks) who received an HIV test during 2011. Study sites were drawn from Highlands, Foothills and Lowlands regions of Lesotho. Central laboratory database data were linked to facility and laboratory register information. Turnaround time geometric means …

Assessing Very Early Infant Diagnosis Turnaround Times: Findings From A Birth Testing Pilot In Lesotho, Michelle Gill, Heather J. Hoffman, Majoalane Mokone, Vincent Tukei, Matsepeli Nchephe, +Several Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Very early infant diagnosis (VEID) (testing within two weeks of life), combined with rapid treatment initiation, could reduce early infant mortality. Our study evaluated turnaround time (TAT) to receipt of infants’ HIV test results and ART initiation if HIV-infected, with and without birth testing availability. Data from facility records and national databases were collected for 12 facilities offering VEID, as part of an observational prospective cohort study, and 10 noncohort facilities. HIV-exposed infants born in January–June 2016 and any cohort infant diagnosed as HIV-infected at birth or six weeks were included. The median TAT from blood draw to caregiver result …

Risk Of Gastrointestinal Bleeding Among Dabigatran Users – A Self Controlled Case Series Analysis, Wenze Tang, Hsien-Yen Chang, Meijia Zhou, Sonal Singh

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

This article aims to evaluate the real world risk of gastrointestinal bleeding among users naïve to dabigatran. We adopted a self-controlled case series design. We sampled 1215 eligible adult participants who were continuous insured users between July 1, 2010 and March 31, 2012 with use of dabigatran and at least one gastrointestinal bleeding episode. We used a conditional Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios. The population consisted of 64.69% of male and 60.25% patients equal to or greater than age 65 at start of observation. After adjustment for time-variant confounders, the incidence rate of gastrointestinal bleeding was similar during …

Post-Diagnosis Body Mass Index And Mortality Among Women Diagnosed With Endometrial Cancer: Results From The Women's Health Initiative., Hannah Arem, Ruth M Pfeiffer, Steven C Moore, Melinda L Irwin, Michael J Lamonte, Gloria E Sarto, Rami Nassir, Juhua Luo, Rowan T Chlebowski, Louise A Brinton, Charles E Matthews

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Higher body mass index (BMI) measured before endometrial cancer diagnosis has been associated with greater risk of developing endometrial cancer and higher mortality, but the association between BMI measured after diagnosis and mortality risk is unclear. We identified 467 women (91 deaths) in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) with information on BMI measured after diagnosis and used Cox proportional hazards regression to generate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all-cause mortality. Comparing BMI 35+ with/m2, we observed no association with all-cause mortality (HR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.55-1.91). Our study does not support the hypothesis that higher …

Sudan : Malaria, Olivia Jilek

Global Public Health

Sudan faces a great number of public health issues, however one of the most prevalent diseases within the country is Malaria. An estimated nine million cases were reported in 2002, with the total number of deaths at 44,000, in a country that has a population of 37,345,935. The research done on Malaria in Sudan looks at the basic epidemiology of the region, how to identify the disease, and major risks factors present. Other major challenges that Sudan faces are included, as well as suggestions for preventing further illness from the disease.

Visualizing The Diffusion Of Digital Mammography In New York State, Francis P. Boscoe, Xiuling Zhang

Epidemiology & Biostatistics Faculty Scholarship

Digital mammography saw rapid adoption during the first decade of the 2000s. According to data maintained by the Food and Drug Administration, which regulates mammography machines, fewer than 1 percent of the machines in 2001 were digital. By 2014, this figure had risen to 94%. We were interested in identifying the times and locations where the technology was introduced within the state of New York as a way of illustrating the uneven introduction of this technology. While the diffusion of medical innovation has been well-studied, there have not been many instances where maps or geographic information science methods have been …

Statin Use And Risk Of Developing Diabetes: Results From The Diabetes Prevention Program, Diabetes Prevention Program(Dpp) Research Group, Marinella G. Temprosa

GW Biostatistics Center

Objective Several clinical trials of cardiovascular disease prevention with statins have reported increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) with statin therapy. However, participants in these studies were at relatively low risk for diabetes. Further, diabetes was often based on self-report and was not the primary outcome. It is unknown whether statins similarly modify diabetes risk in higher risk populations.

Research design and methods During the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study (n=3234), the long-term follow-up to a randomized clinical trial of interventions to prevent T2DM, incident diabetes was assessed by annual 75 g oral glucose tolerance testing and semiannual fasting …

Anti-Müllerian Hormone And Its Relationships With Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease And Renal Disease In A Longitudinal Cohort Study Of Women With Type 1 Diabetes, Catherine Kim, Yuanyuan Pan, Barbara Braffett, Valerie Arends, Michael Steffes, Hunter Wessells, Aruna V. Sarma

GW Biostatistics Center

Background

Reproductive age may be a risk factor for vascular disease. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is produced by viable ovarian follicles and reflects reproductive age. We examined whether AMH concentrations were associated with markers of subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) and kidney disease among women with type 1 diabetes.

Methods

We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications Study. Participants included women with type 1 diabetes and ≥1 AMH measurement (n = 390). In multivariable regression models which adjusted for repeated measures, we examined the associations between AMH with CVD risk factors, estimated glomerular filtration rate, …

Biomarkers Of Tubulointerstitial Damage And Function In Type 1 Diabetes, Ian De Boer, Xiaoyu Gao, Ionut Bebu, Andrew Hoofnagle, John Lachin, Diabetes Control And Complications Trial/Epidemiology Of Diabetes Interventions And Complications (Dcct/Edic) Research Group.

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Objective To evaluate biomarkers of renal tubulointerstitial damage and function in type 1 diabetes with and without diabetic kidney disease.

Research design and methods Cross-sectional case-control study of Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications Study participants. Cases (N=43) had incident persistent estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 with urinary albumin excretion >300 mg/24 hour. Controls (N=43) had persistent eGFR >90 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urinary albumin excretion <30 mg/24 hour. Urinary and plasma biomarkers reflecting tubular injury, inflammation, fibrosis, secretion, and synthetic function were measured from stored specimens collected at the first study visit with reduced eGFR (for case participants) or the corresponding study year (for control participants).

Results Mean (SD) age was 51 (9) and 50 (8) years for case and control participants, and mean (SD) duration of diabetes was 30 (6) and 30 (5) years, respectively. Mean (SD) eGFR was 39 …

Detecting Discordance Enrichment Among A Series Of Two-Sample Genome-Wide Expression Data Sets, Yinglei Lai, Fanni Zhang, Tapan Nayak, Reza Modarres, Norman H. Lee, Timothy A. Mccaffrey

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background

With the current microarray and RNA-seq technologies, two-sample genome-wide expression data have been widely collected in biological and medical studies. The related differential expression analysis and gene set enrichment analysis have been frequently conducted. Integrative analysis can be conducted when multiple data sets are available. In practice, discordant molecular behaviors among a series of data sets can be of biological and clinical interest.

Methods

In this study, a statistical method is proposed for detecting discordance gene set enrichment. Our method is based on a two-level multivariate normal mixture model. It is statistically efficient with linearly increased parameter space when …

Willingness Of Community-Recruited Men Who Have Sex With Men In Washington, Dc To Use Long-Acting Injectable Hiv Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis., Matthew E Levy, Rudy Patrick, Jonjelyn Gamble, Anthony Rawls, Jenevieve Opoku, Manya Magnus, Michael Kharfen, Alan E Greenberg, Irene Kuo

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Objectives

Clinical trials are currently investigating the safety and efficacy of long-acting injectable (LAI) agents as HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Using National HIV Behavioral Surveillance data, we assessed the self-reported willingness of men who have sex with men (MSM) to use LAI PrEP and their preference for LAI versus daily oral PrEP.

Methods

In 2014, venue-based sampling was used to recruit MSM aged ≥18 years in Washington, DC. Participants completed an interviewer-administered survey followed by voluntary HIV testing. This analysis included MSM who self-reported negative/unknown HIV status at study entry. Correlates of being “very likely” to use LAI PrEP and …

Prevalence, Severity And Factors Associated With Peripheral Neuropathy Among Newly Diagnosed Diabetic Patients Attending Mulago Hospital: A Cross-Sectional Study, Samden Lhatoo, Martha Sajatovic

Faculty Scholarship

Aims: To determine the prevalence and associated risk factors of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) among newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus patients in Mulago Hospital. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 248 newly diagnosed adult diabetic patients. Using the standard Neuropathy Symptom Score (NSS) and Neuropathy Disability Score (NDS) criteria, we screened them for neuropathy. Data on the socio-demographics, age, duration of symptoms and history of diabetic ulcer were analyzed using a multiple logistic regression. A p-value <0.05 was considered significant. Results: The majority of study patients (62.1%) were male. The overall prevalence of DPN was 29.4 %. Nearly sixteen percent had moderate neuropathy and only five percent had severe neuropathy. Age above 60 years was significantly associated with the presence of DPN; (OR 3.72; 95% CI 1.25 – 11.03; p=0.018). The history of ever having a foot ulcer was significantly associated with peripheral neuropathy (OR 2.59; 95% CI: 1.03 – 6.49, p = 0.042). Conclusion: DPN occurs in 1 in 4 of newly diagnosed diabetic patients in Mulago hospital. Two thirds of these patients had moderate to severe neuropathy. DPN was independently associated with increasing age. Early diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, increased diabetes knowledge and regular blood sugar screenings would play an important role in identifying this problem.

Reliability Of Medical Records In Diagnosing Inflammatory Breast Cancer In Egypt, Lynne Le, Catherine Schairer, Ahmed Hablas, Jane L. Meza, Shinobu Watanabe-Galloway, Mohamed Ramadan, Sofia D. Merajver, Ibrahim A. Seifeldin, Amr S. Soliman

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) is a rare, aggressive breast cancer diagnosed clinically by the presence of diffuse erythema, peau d'orange, and edema that arise quickly in the affected breast. This study evaluated the validity of medical records in Gharbiah, Egypt in identifying clinical signs/symptoms of IBC. For 34 IBC cases enrolled in a case-control study at the Gharbiah Cancer Society and Tanta Cancer Center, Egypt (2009-2010), we compared signs/symptoms of IBC noted in medical records to those recorded on a standardized form at the time of IBC diagnosis by clinicians participating in the case-control study. We calculated the sensitivity …

Examining The Activities, Effectiveness, And Contribution Of Local Health Departments Using A National Longitudinal Survey Of Public Health Systems, Lava R. Timsina

Theses and Dissertations--Epidemiology and Biostatistics

Health services research and public health services and systems research in the past have contributed to a strong foundation of evidence-based progress in organizing, financing, and delivering medical care and public health strategies across the United States. The purpose of this dissertation was to examine disparities in public health systems and in the delivery of population health services in communities served by these systems using nationally representative data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Local Public Health Systems (1998, 2006, 2012, and 2014).

Data from the 1998 cohort of 497 local health jurisdictions serving at least 100,000 residents, and from …

Mixture Modeling With Applications In Alzheimer's Disease, Frank Appiah

Theses and Dissertations--Epidemiology and Biostatistics

This dissertation involves an application of mixture of regression models to 114 individuals who are cognitively intact (from the Alzheimer's Disease and Neuroimaging Initiative-ADNI, data). The correct number of components in the model were estimated with the Singular BIC (SBIC), marking the first time it has been applied to such a problem. The smallest true model in conjunction with the approximation of SBIC was fixed at 1. The resulting posterior probabilities from the model were used to estimate the probability of a person transitioning and risk plots were obtained that could in principle be used by clinicians to identify patients …