Epidemiology Commons^™

Estimating Percentile-Specific Causal Effects: A Case Study Of Micronutrient Supplementation, Birth Weight, And Infant Mortality, Francesca Dominici, Scott L. Zeger, Giovanni Parmigiani, Joanne Katz, Parul Christian

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

In developing countries, higher infant mortality is partially caused by poor maternal and fetal nutrition. Clinical trials of micronutrient supplementation are aimed at reducing the risk of infant mortality by increasing birth weight. Because infant mortality is greatest among the low birth weight infants (LBW) (• 2500 grams), an effective intervention may need to increase the birth weight among the smallest babies. Although it has been demonstrated that supplementation increases the birth weight in a trial conducted in Nepal, there is inconclusive evidence that the supplementation improves their survival. It has been hypothesized that a potential benefit of the treatment …

A Hybrid Newton-Type Method For The Linear Regression In Case-Cohort Studies, Menggang Yu, Bin Nan

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Case-cohort designs are increasingly commonly used in large epidemiological cohort studies. Nan, Yu, and Kalbeisch (2004) provided the asymptotic results for censored linear regression models in case-cohort studies. In this article, we consider computational aspects of their proposed rank based estimating methods. We show that the rank based discontinuous estimating functions for case-cohort studies are monotone, a property established for cohort data in the literature, when generalized Gehan type of weights are used. Though the estimating problem can be formulated to a linear programming problem as that for cohort data, due to its easily uncontrollable large scale even for a …

Referent Selection Strategies In Case-Crossover Analyses Of Air Pollution Exposure Data: Implications For Bias, Holly Janes, Lianne Sheppard, Thomas Lumley

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The case-crossover design has been widely used to study the association between short term air pollution exposure and the risk of an acute adverse health event. The design uses cases only, and, for each individual, compares exposure just prior to the event with exposure at other control, or “referent” times. By making within-subject comparisons, time invariant confounders are controlled by design. Even more important in the air pollution setting is that, by matching referents to the index time, time varying confounders can also be controlled by design. Yet, the referent selection strategy is important for reasons other than control of …

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models For Summer Ozone Exposure And Cardio-Respiratory Mortality, Yi Huang, Francesca Dominici, Michelle L. Bell

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994.

At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by …

Dynamical Epidemic Suppression Using Stochastic Prediction And Control, Ira Schwartz, Lora Billings, Erik Bollt

Department of Mathematics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control scheme that prevents large outbreaks from occurring. The theory is applicable to a wide range of stochastic processes with underlying deterministic structure.

Data Adaptive Estimation Of The Treatment Specific Mean, Yue Wang, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

An important problem in epidemiology and medical research is the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment action at a single point in time on the mean of an outcome, possibly within strata of the target population defined by a subset of the baseline covariates. Current approaches to this problem are based on marginal structural models, i.e., parametric models for the marginal distribution of counterfactural outcomes as a function of treatment and effect modifiers. The various estimators developed in this context furthermore each depend on a high-dimensional nuisance parameter whose estimation currently also relies on parametric models. Since misspecification …

Indigenous Healing Practices And Their Effect On Tb And Hiv/Tb Patients’ Utilization And Compliance With Anti-Tb Medication, Josephine Thinwa

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

A sample of 27 Tuberculosis patients attending New Brighton Clinic in small urban community for treatment were surveyed and interviewed on their use of alternative treatments and interpretation of TB. This study specifically focused on TB patients’ use of traditional medicine in treating TB and whether this use had an effect on the patients’ willingness to utilize and adherence to anti-TB treatment from the clinic. Investigations were also done to characterize if an HIV positive status influenced TB patients’ inclination to utilize traditional medicine. Through a focus group discussion with three traditional healers, information was provided on traditional medicine and …

Descriptive And Comparative Study Of The Nutritional Knowledge And Behavior Of Mothers Of Young Children Who Have Received Targeted Nutritional Education And Those Who Have Not As A Method To Ascertain The Effectiveness Of The Little Tree Nutritional And Educational Centre In Combating Malnutrition In The Pienaarsig Township Of Nieu Bethesda, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, Amelia Peterson

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

No abstract provided.

History-Adjusted Marginal Structural Models And Statically-Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Maya L. Petersen

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Marginal structural models (MSM) provide a powerful tool for estimating the causal effect of a treatment. These models, introduced by Robins, model the marginal distributions of treatment-specific counterfactual outcomes, possibly conditional on a subset of the baseline covariates. Marginal structural models are particularly useful in the context of longitudinal data structures, in which each subject's treatment and covariate history are measured over time, and an outcome is recorded at a final time point. However, the utility of these models for some applications has been limited by their inability to incorporate modification of the causal effect of treatment by time-varying covariates. …

Estimation Of Treatment Effects In Randomized Trials With Noncompliance And A Dichotomous Outcome , Mark J. Van Der Laan, Alan E. Hubbard, Nicholas P. Jewell

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We propose a class of estimators of the treatment effect on a dichotomous outcome among the treated subjects within covariate and treatment arm strata in randomized trials with non-compliance. Recent articles by Vansteelandt and Goethebeur (2003) and Robins and Rotnitzky (2004) have presented consistent and asymptotically linear estimators of a causal odds ratio, which rely, beyond correct specification of a model for the causal odds ratio, on a correctly specified model for a potentially high dimensional nuisance parameter. In this article we propose consistent, asymptotically linear and locally efficient estimators of a causal relative risk and a new parameter -- …

Estimation Of Direct And Indirect Causal Effects In Longitudinal Studies, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Maya L. Petersen

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The causal effect of a treatment on an outcome is generally mediated by several intermediate variables. Estimation of the component of the causal effect of a treatment that is mediated by a given intermediate variable (the indirect effect of the treatment), and the component that is not mediated by that intermediate variable (the direct effect of the treatment) is often relevant to mechanistic understanding and to the design of clinical and public health interventions. Under the assumption of no-unmeasured confounders, Robins & Greenland (1992) and Pearl (2000), develop two identifiability results for direct and indirect causal effects. They define an …

Cancer Esophagus Karachi 1995-2002:Epidemiology, Risk Factors And Trends, Y. Bhurgri, N. Faridi, L. A.G. Kazi, S. K. Ali, H. Bhurgri, A. Usman, J. Malik, A. Bhurgri, R. Ahmed, S. Muzaffar, N. Kayani, Shahid Pervez, S. H. Hasan

Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine

Objective: To study the trends of cancer esophagus in Karachi South during 1995-2002 and identify risk factors.

Methods: Incident esophageal cancer cases recorded at the Karachi Cancer Registry for Karachi South, during 1st January 1995 to 31st December 2003 were reviewed. For maximum completion of data, incident cases registered from 1st January 1995 to 31st December 2002 were included for final analyses.

Results: The Age Standardized Incidence Rates (ASIRs) of cancer esophagus in Karachi South for males were 6.5/100,000 (1995-1997) and 6.4/100,000 (1998-2002). In females the observed rates were 7.0/100,000 (1995-1997) and 8.6/100,000 (1998-2002).

Conclusion: In the moderately high incidence, …

Multiple Testing Methods For Chip-Chip High Density Oligonucleotide Array Data, Sunduz Keles, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Sandrine Dudoit, Simon E. Cawley

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Cawley et al. (2004) have recently mapped the locations of binding sites for three transcription factors along human chromosomes 21 and 22 using ChIP-Chip experiments. ChIP-Chip experiments are a new approach to the genome-wide identification of transcription factor binding sites and consist of chromatin (Ch) immunoprecipitation (IP) of transcription factor-bound genomic DNA followed by high density oligonucleotide hybridization (Chip) of the IP-enriched DNA. We investigate the ChIP-Chip data structure and propose methods for inferring the location of transcription factor binding sites from these data. The proposed methods involve testing for each probe whether it is part of a bound sequence …

Combining Predictors For Classification Using The Area Under The Roc Curve, Margaret S. Pepe, Tianxi Cai, Zheng Zhang

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We compare simple logistic regression with an alternative robust procedure for constructing linear predictors to be used for the two state classification task. Theoritical advantages of the robust procedure over logistic regression are: (i) although it assumes a generalized linear model for the dichotomous outcome variable, it does not require specification of the link function; (ii) it accommodates case-control designs even when the model is not logistic; and (iii) it yields sensible results even when the generalized linear model assumption fails to hold. Surprisingly, we find that the linear predictor derived from the logistic regression likelihood is very robust in …

The Association Of Blood Type On The Five Factors Of Personality In Chinese Adolescents, Kunher Wu

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

The purpose of this study was to identify the number of personality factors in Chinese adolescents using the Chinese Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) and to determine whether blood type is associated with personality. It is widely accepted by psychologists that the five-factor model can provide an adequate representation of adult personality dimensions, but there is less agreement on the number of factors observable in adolescence. A total of 3,396 11^th graders from the city of Kaohsiung, Taiwan completed the Chinese NEO-PI-R. Principle component analysis with varimax rotation showed five factors of personality in these Taiwanese adolescents, which clearly …

Seasonal Analyses Of Air Pollution And Mortality In 100 U.S. Cities, Roger D. Peng, Francesca Dominici, Roberto Pastor-Barriuso, Scott L. Zeger, Jonathan M. Samet

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Time series models relating short-term changes in air pollution levels to daily mortality counts typically assume that the effects of air pollution on the log relative rate of mortality do not vary with time. However, these short-term effects might plausibly vary by season. Changes in the sources of air pollution and meteorology can result in changes in characteristics of the air pollution mixture across seasons. The authors develop Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical models for estimating time-varying effects of pollution on mortality in multi-site time series studies. The methods are applied to the updated National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study database …

On Corrected Score Approach For Proportional Hazards Model With Covariate Measurement Error, Xiao Song, Yijian Huang

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In the presence of covariate measurement error with the proportional hazards model, several functional modeling methods have been proposed. These include the conditional score estimator (Tsiatis and Davidian, 2001), the parametric correction estimator (Nakamura, 1992) and the nonparametric correction estimator (Huang and Wang, 2000, 2003) in the order of weaker assumptions on the error. Although they are all consistent, each suffers from potential difficulties with small samples and substantial measurement error. In this article, upon noting that the conditional score and parametric correction estimators are asymptotically equivalent in the case of normal error, we investigate their relative finite sample performance …

Causal Inference In Hybrid Intervention Trials Involving Treatment Choice, Qi Long, Rod Little, Xihong Lin

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Randomized allocation of treatments is a cornerstone of experimental design, but has drawbacks when a limited set of individuals are willing to be randomized, or the act of randomization undermines the success of the treatment. Choice-based experimental designs allow a subset of the participants to choose their treatments. We discuss here causal inferences for experimental designs where some participants are randomly allocated to treatments and others receive their treatment preference. This paper was motivated by the “Women Take Pride” (WTP) study (Janevic et al., 2001), a doubly randomized preference trail (DRPT) to assess behavioral interventions for women with heart disease. …

Individualized Predictions Of Disease Progression Following Radiation Therapy For Prostate Cancer., Jeremy Taylor, Menggang Yu, Howard M. Sandler

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Background: Following treatment for localized prostate cancer, men are monitored with serial PSA measurements. Refining the predictive value of post-treatment PSA determinations may add to clinical management and we have developed a model that predicts for an individual patient future PSA values and estimates the time to future clinical recurrence.

Methods: Data from 934 patients treated for prostate cancer between 1987 and 2000 were used to develop a comprehensive statistical model to fit the clinical recurrence events and pattern of PSA data. A logistic regression model was used for the probability of cure, non-linear hierarchical mixed models were used for …

Overlap Bias In The Case-Crossover Design, With Application To Air Pollution Exposures, Holly Janes, Lianne Sheppard, Thomas Lumley

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The case-crossover design uses cases only, and compares exposures just prior to the event times to exposures at comparable control, or “referent” times, in order to assess the effect of short-term exposure on the risk of a rare event. It has commonly been used to study the effect of air pollution on the risk of various adverse health events. Proper selection of referents is crucial, especially with air pollution exposures, which are shared, highly seasonal, and often have a long term time trend. Hence, careful referent selection is important to control for time-varying confounders, and in order to ensure that …

Sars Surveillance During Emergency Public Health Response, United States, March-July 2003, Stephanie J. Schrag, John T. Brooks, Chris Van Beneden, Umesh D. Parashar, Patricia M. Griffin, Larry J. Anderson, William J. Bellini, Robert F. Benson, Dean D. Erdman, Alexander Klimov, Thomas G. Ksiazek, Teresa C. T. Peret, Deborah F. Talkington, W. Lanier Thacker, Maria L. Tondella, Jacquelyn S. Sampson, Allen W. Hightower, Dale F. Nordenberg, Brian D. Plikaytis, Ali S. Khan, Nancy E. Rosenstein, Tracee A. Treadwell, Cynthia G. Whitney, Anthony E. Fiore, Tonji M. Durant, Joseph F. Perz, Annemarie Wasley, Daniel Feikin, Joy L. Herndon, William A. Bower, Barbara W. Klibourn, Deborah A. Levy, Victor G. Coronado, Joanna Buffington, Clare A. Dykewicz, Rima F. Khabbaz, Mary E. Chamberland

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

In response to the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the United States established national surveillance using a sensitive case definition incorporating clinical, epidemiologic, and laboratory criteria. Of 1,460 unexplained respiratory illnesses reported by state and local health departments to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from March 17 to July 30, 2003, a total of 398 (27%) met clinical and epidemiologic SARS case criteria. Of these, 72 (18%) were probable cases with radiographic evidence of pneumonia. Eight (2%) were laboratory-confirmed SARS-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) infections, 206 (52%) were SARS-CoV negative, and 184 (46%) had undetermined SARS-CoV status because of …

Surveillance For Waterborne-Disease Outbreaks Associated With Drinking Water--United States, 2001-2002, Brian G. Blackburn, Gunther F. Craun, Jonathan S. Yoder, Vincent Hill, Rebecca L. Calderon, Nora Chen, Sherline H. Lee, Deborah A. Levy, Michael J. Beach

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

PROBLEM/CONDITION: Since 1971, CDC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists have maintained a collaborative surveillance system for collecting and periodically reporting data related to occurrences and causes of waterborne-disease outbreaks (WBDOs). This surveillance system is the primary source of data concerning the scope and effects of waterborne disease outbreaks on persons in the United States.

REPORTING PERIOD COVERED: This summary includes data on WBDOs associated with drinking water that occurred during January 2001-December 2002 and on three previously unreported outbreaks that occurred during 2000.

DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: Public health departments in the states, …

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Profile Of African American College Freshmen, Theodosha S. Gilliard

MUSC Theses and Dissertations

Background: Rates of CVD are higher among African Americans compared to whites and natives of South Carolina and the Southeast compared to non-natives. Obesity, a CVD risk factor, is also known to be more prevalent in African Americans compared to whites. Ethnic differences in body image are thought to play a role in the higher rates of obesity among African Americans compared to whites. This study investigated the prevalence of CVD risk factors and body image in an at risk population, African American adolescents primarily from the state of South Carolina. Research Design and Methods: Students were given a Health …

Surveillance For Waterborne-Disease Outbreaks Associated With Recreational Water--United States, 2001-2002, Jonathan S. Yoder, Brian G. Blackburn, Gunther F. Craun, Vincent Hill, Deborah A. Levy, Nora Chen, Sherline H. Lee, Rebecca L. Calderon, Michael J. Beach

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

PROBLEM/CONDITION: Since 1971, CDC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists have maintained a collaborative surveillance system for collecting and periodically reporting data related to occurrences and causes of waterborne-disease outbreaks (WBDOs) related to drinking water; tabulation of recreational water-associated outbreaks was added to the surveillance system in 1978. This surveillance system is the primary source of data concerning the scope and effects of waterborne disease outbreaks on persons in the United States.

REPORTING PERIOD COVERED: This summary includes data on WBDOs associated with recreational water that occurred during January 2001-December 2002 and on …

Body Image And Attitudes Toward Obesity In College Students, Sarah Rebecca Goodwin

Theses and Dissertations

The current study was conducted in order to examine the impact of ethnicity on gender differences in body type preferences and perceptions and add to the literature examining racial differences in body type preferences and perceptions. The current study was an expansion of one by Gipson et al conducted at a historically Black university in 2004, in which responses and BMI measurements of 191 college students were examined for associations between BMI and gender, and body image and attitudes toward obesity. For the current study the sample of 176 college students enrolled at Virginia Commonwealth University, an ethnically diverse institution, …

Obesity And Health Status Among Urban Vs. Suburban Elderly In Philadelphia And Surrounding Counties, Ockidde Dufayne Harris

Theses and Dissertations

Obesity is a dangerous health condition affecting approximately 30% of all Americans and can be attributed to 300,000 deaths a year. Obesity has been found to disproportionately affect Blacks, Latinos, and those with lower SES. Although obesity is a problem for all age groups, its prevalence is highest among those 60-74 years of age. Studies have shown that there is an association between obesity and chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease, arthritis, cancers, and type-2 diabetes. According to the Centers for Disease Control, chronic health conditions affect 80% of all elderly persons, many times limiting function and decreasing quality of …

Epidemiologic And Environmental Investigation Of A Recreational Water Outbreak Caused By Two Genotypes Of Cryptosporidium Parvum In Ohio In 2000, Els Mathieu, Deborah A. Levy, Fran Veverka, Mary-Kay Parrish, John Sarisky, Nancy Shapiro, Stephanie Johnston, Thomas Handzel, Allen Hightower, Lihua Xiao, Yeuk-Mui Lee, Steve York, Michael Arrowood, Robin Lee, Jeffrey L. Jones

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

In August 2000, the Ohio Department of Health requested assistance to investigate a cryptosporidiosis outbreak with more than 700 clinical case-patients. An epidemiologic and environmental investigation was conducted. Stool specimens, pool water, and sand filter samples were analyzed. A community-based case-control study showed that the main risk factor was swimming in pool A (odds ratio [OR] = 42, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 12.3-144.9). This was supported by results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis, which showed the presence of both the human and bovine genotypes of Cryptosporidium parvum in case-patients and samples from the filter of pool A. A …

Did A Severe Flood In The Midwest Cause An Increase In The Incidence Of Gastrointestinal Symptoms?, Timothy J. Wade, Sukhminder K. Sandhu, Deborah A. Levy, Sherline Lee, Mark W. Lechevallier, Louis Katz, John M. Colford

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

Severe flooding occurred in the midwestern United States in 2001. Since November 2000, coincidentally, data on gastrointestinal symptoms had been collected for a drinking water intervention study in a community along the Mississippi River that was affected by the flood. After the flood had subsided, the authors asked these subjects (n = 1,110) about their contact with floodwater. The objectives of this investigation were to determine whether rates of gastrointestinal illness were elevated during the flood and whether contact with floodwater was associated with increased risk of gastrointestinal illness. An increase in the incidence of gastrointestinal symptoms during the flood …