Epidemiology Commons^™

A Mathematical Model Of The Spread Of Dengue Fever Incorporating Mobility, Kelly A. Reagan

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Yellow Fever Epidemic: A New Global Health Emergency?, Lawrence O. Gostin, Daniel Lucey

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

The worst yellow fever epidemic in Angola since 1986 is rapidly spreading, including the capital, Luanda. In Angola, the epidemic began in December 2015 and the laboratory-confirmed outbreak was reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on January 21, 2016. Angola has had 2023 suspected cases and 258 deaths as of April 26, 2016. China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Kenya also have reported cases arising from infected travelers from Angola. Namibia and Zambia also share a long border with Angola, with considerable population movement between the countries. Similar to other recent epidemics, quick and effective action to stop …

Epidemiological Characteristics Of Clinically-Confirmed Cases Of Chikungunya In Teculutan, Guatemala, Annaly Aldana

Senior Honors Projects

As no vaccine currently exists for the Chikungunya virus (CHKV), mosquito control and efficient public health campaigns are crucial for the prevention of disease propagation. The purpose of this research project is to identify populations particularly at-risk for acquiring Chikungunya, and to explore the role that cultural attitudes may play in impacting mosquito-borne disease. Due to its geographical structure and climate, Guatemala is an ideal territory for the spread of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. This project was developed by collaborating with the public governmental health clinic in the municipal town of Teculután, in the department of Zacapa in Guatemala. …

Epidemiology Crucial To Cracking Elizabethkingia Crisis, Angela Tonozzi

Journal of Patient-Centered Research and Reviews

The author explains the epidemiological methods, tools and personnel required to pinpoint the source of Wisconsin’s 2016 outbreak of Elizabethkingia infections.

A Model For Hiv Disclosure Of A Parent's And/Or A Child's Illness, Gary J. Burkholder Jr, Grace Gachanja

Walden Faculty and Staff Publications

HIV prevalence in Kenya remains steady at 5.6% for adults 15 years and older, and 0.9% among children aged below 14 years. Parents and children are known to practice unprotected sex, which has implications for continued HIV spread within the country. Additionally, due to increased accessibility of antiretroviral therapy, more HIV-positive persons are living longer. Therefore, the need for HIV disclosure of a parent's and/or a child's HIV status within the country will continue for years to come. We conducted a qualitative phenomenological study to understand the entire process of disclosure from the time of initial HIV diagnosis of an …

Multilevel Analysis Of Individual, Neighborhood, And Health Care Facility Characteristics Associated With Achievement And Maintenance Of Hiv Viral Suppression Among Persons Newly Diagnosed With Hiv In New York City, Ellen W. Wiewel

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Objective

To investigate the effect of individual, health care facility, and neighborhood characteristics on achievement and maintenance of HIV viral suppression, among New York City residents aged 13 years and older diagnosed with HIV between 2006 and 2012.

Methods

I used individual-level data from the New York City HIV surveillance registry and Case Surveillance-Based Sampling, facility-level data from the surveillance registry, and neighborhood-level data from the U.S. Census and American Community Survey. The outcomes of interest were first viral suppression after diagnosis (Aims 1 and 3; ≤400 copies/mL) and virologic failure after first suppression among persons who achieved suppression (Aim …

Models For Hsv Shedding Must Account For Two Levels Of Overdispersion, Amalia Magaret

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We have frequently implemented crossover studies to evaluate new therapeutic interventions for genital herpes simplex virus infection. The outcome measured to assess the efficacy of interventions on herpes disease severity is the viral shedding rate, defined as the frequency of detection of HSV on the genital skin and mucosa. We performed a simulation study to ascertain whether our standard model, which we have used previously, was appropriately considering all the necessary features of the shedding data to provide correct inference. We simulated shedding data under our standard, validated assumptions and assessed the ability of 5 different models to reproduce the …

The Waist To Height Ratio Is A Better Anthropometric Index Of Abdominal Obesity And Its Association With The Prevalence Of Diabetes Among Asian Americans, Yu Xiao

All Master's Theses

There is limited information about diabetes prevalence among Asian Americans. Diabetes risk factors include abdominal obesity (AO), which can be assessed by measuring waist circumference (WC) or waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR). The purpose of this study was to compare the prevalence of diabetes among Asians with non-Asians in the United States and compare WC and WHtR as predictors of diabetes. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-14 was analyzed using SAS 9.2. There were 8,615 adult non-pregnant non-Asians and 1,224 Asians included in this study. Despite a lower prevalence of obesity among Asians compared to non-Asians (12% vs …

Investigating Cholera Using An Sir Model With Age-Class Structure And Optimal Control, K. Renee Fister, Holly Gaff, Elsa Schaefer, Glenna Buford, Bryce C. Norris

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

The use of systems of differential equations in mathematical modeling in conjunction with epidemiology continues to be an area of focused research. This paper briefly acquaints readers with epidemiology, cholera, and the need for effective control strategies; discusses cholera dynamics through a variation on the SIR epidemiological model in which two separate age classes exist in a population; finds the numeric value for R₀ to be approximately 1.54 using estimated parameters for Bangladesh; and employs an optimal control resulting in a suggestion that a protection control be implemented at the end of the monsoon season.

Prevalence Of Nasal Colonization By Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus In Persons Using A Homeless Shelter In Kansas City, Megan Ottomeyer, Charles D. Graham, Avery D. Legg, Elizabeth S. Cooper, Chad D. Law, Mariam Molani, Karine Matevossian, Jerry Marlin, Charlott Williams, Ramon Newman, Jason A. Wasserman, Larry W. Segars, Tracey A H Taylor

Manuscripts, Articles, Book Chapters and Other Papers

Nasal colonization of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) plays an important role in the epidemiology and pathogenesis of disease. Situations of close-quarter contact in groups are generally regarded as a risk factor for community-acquired MRSA strains due to transmission via fomites and person-to-person contact. With these criteria for risk, homeless individuals using shelter facilities, including showers and toilets, should be considered high risk for colonization and infection. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of nasal colonization of MRSA in a homeless population compared to established rates of colonization within the public and a control group of subjects …

Lifestyle Contributors To Cardiovascular Disease Risk, Adam J. Berrones

Theses and Dissertations--Kinesiology and Health Promotion

Aortic stiffness is an independent risk factor that has prognostic value regarding future cardiovascular disease (CVD) events such as myocardial infarction, strokes, and heart failure. Although death rates due to coronary heart disease have declined in recent years, the leading global killer remains CVD and prevalence is still high. Understanding lifestyle contributors associated with aortic stiffness would provide the public with insight into targeting key health-related behaviors.

The purpose of this observational study was to examine the association of physical activity, physical function, and dietary quality as independent factors contributing to aortic stiffness in apparently healthy middle aged men. Fifty-two …

Space-Time Modelling Of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Assessing Leptospirosis Risk In Sri Lanka, Cameron C F Plouffe

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

In this research, models were developed to analyze leptospirosis incidence in Sri Lanka and its relation to rainfall. Before any leptospirosis risk models were developed, rainfall data were evaluated from an agro-ecological monitoring network for producing maps of total monthly rainfall in Sri Lanka. Four spatial interpolation techniques were compared: inverse distance weighting, thin-plate splines, ordinary kriging, and Bayesian kriging. Error metrics were used to validate interpolations against independent data. Satellite data were used to assess the spatial pattern of rainfall. Results indicated that Bayesian kriging and splines performed best in low and high rainfall, respectively. Rainfall maps generated from …

Japanese Encephalitis: Assessing Disease Risk Due To Landscape Factors At Multiple Scales, Julia E. Metelka

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Japanese Encephalitis is a mosquito-borne disease and is the leading cause of viral encephalitis in Asia. In many Asian countries, the geographical distribution of JE is dependent on a variety of human-environment interactions that can be conceptualized as a complex social-ecological system. The JE transmission cycle is influenced by a few primary human-landscape factors; the abundance and the spatial configuration of rice paddy fields (which provide habitat for the vector), the distribution of pig farms (which position the virus' amplifying host), and the location of a susceptible human population. Our models integrate population dynamics, landscape characteristics, and weather variables that …

Epidemiology Of Hiv Among American Indians And Alaska Natives – United States, 2008-2011, Frances J. Walker, Jane M. Kelly, Mona Doshani, Neeraja Saduvala, Joseph Prejean

Journal of Health Disparities Research and Practice

American Indians/Alaska Natives (AI/AN) diagnosed with HIV infection have poorer survivorship and a higher percentage of Stage 3 (AIDS] diagnoses within one year of HIV diagnosis, compared to most race/ethnicity groups. National HIV surveillance data for 2008-2011 were used to determine diagnosis rates of HIV infection, persons living with HIV, and persons with a late diagnosis (Stage 3 within three months of HIV diagnosis) by selected characteristics for AI/AN and a combined other race/ethnicity group. The highest percentages of 862 AI/AN diagnosed with HIV infection were among males (75.7%), AI/AN aged 25-34 years (32.9%), persons living in large metropolitan areas …

Microrna Molecular Profiling From Matched Tumor And Bio-Fluids In Bladder Cancer, David A. Armstrong, Benjamin B. Green, John D. Seigne, Alan R. Schned, Carmen Marsit

Dartmouth Scholarship

MicroRNAs have been identified as potential cancer biomarkers due to their presence and stability in many body fluids including urine and plasma, but the relationship of the pattern of expression of these messengers across various biological media has not been addressed and could provide important information in order to translate these biomarkers for epidemiologic or clinical use. We analyzed microRNA of matched FFPE-tumor tissue, plasma, urine exosomes (n = 16) and WBCs (n = 11) from patients with bladder cancer, using Nanostring miRNA assays and droplet digital PCR for validation. Pearson correlations were used to compare expression between …

Noroviruses As A Cause Of Diarrhea In Immunocompromised Pediatric Hematopoietic Stem Cell And Solid Organ Transplant Recipients, X. Ye, J. N. Van, F. M. Munoz, P. A. Revell, Claudia A. Korinetz, R. A. Krance, R. L. Atmar, M. K. Estes, H. L. Koo

ETSU Faculty Works

Case reports describe significant norovirus gastroenteritis morbidity in immunocompromised patients. We evaluated norovirus pathogenesis in prospectively enrolled solid organ (SOT) and hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) patients with diarrhea who presented to Texas Children's Hospital and submitted stool for enteric testing. Noroviruses were detected by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Clinical outcomes of norovirus diarrhea and non-norovirus diarrhea patients, matched by transplanted organ type, were compared. Norovirus infection was identified in 25 (22%) of 116 patients, more frequently than other enteropathogens. Fifty percent of norovirus patients experienced diarrhea lasting ≥14 days, with median duration of 12.5 days (range 1–324 …

Know Your Status: Alleviating Stigma From The Hiv Positive Community Of San Luis Obispo California, Mario Alberto Viveros Espinoza

Ethnic Studies

The purpose of this project is to alleviate stigma from the HIV community in San Luis Obispo, CA by creating an outreach program, “Know Your Status,” that raises awareness of HIV education and prevention. Research on HIV stigma and on ideologies for program development and implementation shows that HIV positive individuals face both internalized and externalized stigma. Program development and implementation can be effective by assessing and addressing the specific needs of those living within the community. This project includes the data needed for program development and implementation, collected through anonymous surveys from HIV positive community members, interviews with professionals …

Cost-Effectiveness Of Coronary Artery Calcium Testing For Coronary Heart And Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction To Guide Statin Allocation: The Multi-Ethnic Study Of Atherosclerosis (Mesa), Khurram Nasir

All Publications

BACKGROUND: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) showed that the addition of coronary artery calcium (CAC) to traditional risk factors improves risk classification, particularly in intermediate risk asymptomatic patients with LDL cholesterol levels /dL. However, the cost-effectiveness of incorporating CAC into treatment decision rules has yet to be clearly delineated.OBJECTIVE: To model the cost-effectiveness of CAC for cardiovascular risk stratification in asymptomatic, intermediate risk patients not taking a statin. Treatment based on CAC was compared to (1) treatment of all intermediate-risk patients, and (2) treatment on the basis of United States guidelines.METHODS: We developed a Markov model of first coronary …

Obesity And Metabolic Phenotypes (Metabolically Healthy And Unhealthy Variants) Are Significantly Associated With Prevalence Of Elevated C-Reactive Protein And Hepatic Steatosis In A Large Healthy Brazilian Population, Sameer Shaharyar, Lara Roberson, Omar Jamal, Adnan Younus, Shozab Ali, Arthur Agatston, Khurram Nasir Baptist Health Medical Group

All Publications

BACKGROUND:Among the obese, the so-called metabolically healthy obese (MHO) phenotype is thought to confer a lower CVD risk as compared to obesity with typical associated metabolic changes. The present study aims to determine the relationship of different subtypes of obesity with inflammatory-cardiometabolic abnormalities.METHODS:We evaluated 5,519 healthy, Brazilian subjects (43 ± 10 years, 78% males), free of known cardiovascular disease. Those with (MRF) were considered metabolically healthy, and those with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2) and/or waist circumference meeting NCEP criteria for metabolic syndrome as overweight/obese (OW). High sensitivity C reactive protein (hsCRP) was measured to assess underlying inflammation and hepatic steatosis …

The Relationship Between Cancer Incidence, Stage, And Poverty In The United States, Francis P. Boscoe, Kevin A. Henry, Recinda L. Sherman, Christopher J. Johnson

Epidemiology & Biostatistics Faculty Scholarship

We extend a prior analysis on the relation between poverty and cancer incidence in a sample of 2.90 million cancers diagnosed in 16 U.S. states plus Los Angeles over the 2005-2009 period by additionally considering stage at diagnosis. Recognizing that higher relative disparities are often found among less-common cancer sites, our analysis incorporated both relative and absolute measures of disparities. Fourteen of the 21 cancer sites analyzed were found to have significant variation by stage; in each instance, diagnosis at distant stage was more likely among residents of high-poverty areas. If the incidence rates found in the lowest-poverty areas for …

The Cost-Effectiveness Of Diabetes Prevention: Results From The Diabetes Prevention Program And The Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study, William Herman

GW Biostatistics Center

Background

The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) was a randomized, controlled clinical trial. It demonstrated that among high-risk individuals with impaired glucose tolerance, diabetes incidence was reduced by 58 % with lifestyle intervention and 31 % with metformin compared to placebo. During the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study (DPPOS), all DPP participants were unmasked to their treatment assignments, the original lifestyle intervention group was offered additional lifestyle support, the metformin group continued metformin, and all three groups were offered a group-implemented lifestyle intervention. Over the 10 years of combined DPP/DPPOS follow-up, diabetes incidence was reduced by 34 % in the lifestyle …

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors In Structural Firefighters, Nicholas W. Trubee

Theses and Dissertations--Kinesiology and Health Promotion

This dissertation is composed of two manuscripts assessing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in structural firefighters. Study 1 compared traditional CVD risk factors and health-related behaviors between professional and volunteer firefighters. Online questionnaires were sent to approximately 4000 firefighters in the state of Kentucky. The results indicated that 90% of volunteer and 58% of professional firefighters were classified as moderate-to-high CVD risk. Volunteer firefighters were significantly (p < 0.001) older and more likely (p = 0.026) to be current cigarette smokers. The mean body mass index among all firefighters in the sample was 30.8 kg·m^-2. Nearly 60% of volunteer firefighters were obese. Obese firefighters were more likely (p < 0.05) to have been diagnosed as diabetic or pre-diabetes compared to overweight and normal weight firefighters. These results indicate that volunteer firefighters may be at a greater CVD risk compared to professional firefighters.

Study 2 investigated the association of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and body fat with arterial stiffness in professional firefighters. Forty-six …

Discovering A Gold Mine Of U.S. Government Information: Exploring The Hathitrust Catalog And Its Rich Veins, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

The Hathitrust Catalog provides researchers at member institutions with exponentially expanded access to historical U.S. Government information resources. This presentation describes how researchers can use this resource to conduct substantive research using government information resources on public policy issues such as Internal Revenue Service program problems, infectious diseases such as Ebola, and U.S. foreign relations with the former Soviet Union/Russian Federation.

Antiretroviral Therapy Enrollment Characteristics And Outcomes Among Hiv-Infected Adolescents And Young Adults Compared With Older Adults — Seven African Countries, 2004–2013, Andrew F. Auld, Simon G. Agolory, Ray W. Shiraishi, Fred Wabwire-Mangen, Gideon Kwesigabo, Modest Mulenga, Sebastian Hachizovu, Emeka Asadu, Moise Zanga Tuho, Virginie Ettiegne-Traore, Francisco Mbofana, Velephi Okello, Charles Azih, Julie A. Denison, Sharon Tsui, Olivier Koole, Harrison Kamiru, Harriet Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha, Charity Alfredo, Kebba Jobarteh, Solomon Odafe, Dennis Onotu, Kunomboa A. Ekra, Joseph S. Kouakou, Peter Ehrenkranz, George Bicego, Kwasi Torpey, Ya Diul Mukadi, Eric Van Praag, Joris Menten, Timothy Mastro, Carol Dukes Hamilton, Mahesh Swaminathan, E. Kainne Dokubo, Andrew L. Baughman, Thomas Spira, Robert Colebunders, David R. Bangsberg, Richard Marlink, Aaron Zee, Jonathan Kaplan, Tedd V. Ellerbrock

OHSU-PSU School of Public Health Faculty Publications and Presentations

Although scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) since 2005 has contributed to a decline of about 30% in the global annual number of human immunodeficiency (HIV)–related deaths and declines in global HIV incidence, estimated annual HIV-related deaths among adolescents have increased by about 50%, and estimated adolescent HIV incidence has been relatively stable. In 2012, an estimated 2,500 (40%) of all 6,300 daily new HIV infections occurred among persons aged 15–24 years. Difficulty enrolling adolescents and young adults in ART and high rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) after ART initiation might be contributing to mortality and HIV incidence in this …

Infectious Diseases, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Scholarship and Research

Provides information about the role of infectious diseases in the early years of U.S. History, with particular emphasis on how they impacted injuries sustained in military conflict.

A Comparison Of Five Malaria Transmission Models: Benchmark Tests And Implications For Disease Control, Dorothy I. Wallace, Ben S. Southworth, Xun Shi, Jonathan W. Chipman, Andrew K. Githeko

Dartmouth Scholarship

Background: Models for malaria transmission are usually compared based on the quantities tracked, the form taken by each term in the equations, and the qualitative properties of the systems at equilibrium. Here five models are compared in detail in order to develop a set of performance measures that further illuminate the differences among models.

Methods: Five models of malaria transmission are compared. Parameters are adjusted to correspond to similar biological quantities across models. Nine choices of parameter sets/initial conditions are tested for all five models. The relationship between malaria incidence in humans and (1) malaria incidence in vectors, (2) man-biting …

Will Hiv Vaccination Reshape Hiv Risk Behavior Networks? A Social Network Analysis Of Drug Users' Anticipated Risk Compensation, April M. Young, Daniel S. Halgin, Ralph J. Diclemente, Claire E. Sterk, Jennifer R. Havens

Epidemiology and Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Background

An HIV vaccine could substantially impact the epidemic. However, risk compensation (RC), or post-vaccination increase in risk behavior, could present a major challenge. The methodology used in previous studies of risk compensation has been almost exclusively individual-level in focus, and has not explored how increased risk behavior could affect the connectivity of risk networks. This study examined the impact of anticipated HIV vaccine-related RC on the structure of high-risk drug users' sexual and injection risk network.

Methods

A sample of 433 rural drug users in the US provided data on their risk relationships (i.e., those involving recent unprotected sex …

Trends And Disparities In Tb Among U.S.-Born Black And White Chicago Residents, 1998-2008, Susan A. Lippold, Lori Armstrong, Jennifer M. Carter, Xiomara Hardison

Journal of Health Disparities Research and Practice

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe the decline of tuberculosis (TB) cases among U.S.-born non-Hispanic (NH) black and white Chicago residents.

METHODS: Data from the National TB Surveillance System was used to analyze trends and characteristics of reported TB cases among U.S.-born NH black and U.S.-born NH white Chicago residents from 1998-2008.

RESULTS: Chicago reported a total of 3,821 TB cases over the 11-year time period. Of these, 1,916 were U.S.-born NH black and 235 were U.S.-born NH white. The proportion of cases attributable to U.S.-born NH blacks was 63% (294/469) in 1998 and 34% in 2008 (72/213). Analysis for trends from …

Vegetarian Dietary Patterns: Mortality, Colorectal Cancer, And Food Consumption, Michael John Orlich

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

Objective Vegetarian dietary patterns represent longstanding, real-world diets consumed by a minority of persons. Studies of important health outcomes of such diets, particularly for all-cause mortality and colorectal cancer risk, have yielded inconsistent results. We sought to examine these outcomes (mortality and colorectal cancer incidence) in a large North-American cohort. We also sought to further characterize potentially important differences in the food consumption patterns of these diets. Design Baseline diet was measured by a quantitative food frequency questionnaire among more than 96,000 Seventh-day Adventists in the US and Canada, enrolled from 2002-2007. Dietary patterns were defined, based on the reported …

New Malignancies After Squamous Cell Carcinoma And Melanomas: A Population-Based Study From Norway, Trude E. Robsahm, Margaret R. Karagas, Judy R. Rees, Astri Syse

Dartmouth Scholarship

Skin cancer survivors experience an increased risk for subsequent malignancies but the associated risk factors are poorly understood. This study examined the risk of a new primary cancer following an initial skin cancer and assessed risk factors associated with second primary cancers.