Clinical Epidemiology Commons^™

Girls' Perception Of Physical Environmental Factors And Transportation: Reliability And Association With Physical Activity And Active Transport To School, Kelly R. Evenson, Amanda Birnbaum, Ariane L. Bedimo-Rung, James Sallis, Carolyn C. Voorhees, Kimberly Ring, John P. Elder

Department of Public Health Scholarship and Creative Works

Background

Preliminary evidence suggests that the physical environment and transportation are associated with youth physical activity levels. Only a few studies have examined the association of physical environmental factors on walking and bicycling to school. Therefore, the purpose of this study was (1) to examine the test-retest reliability of a survey designed for youth to assess perceptions of physical environmental factors (e.g. safety, aesthetics, facilities near the home) and transportation, and (2) to describe the associations of these perceptions with both physical activity and active transport to school.

Methods

Test and retest surveys, administered a median of 12 days later, …

Simple Records Matching Method For Diagnostic And Clinical Datasets Of Patient’S Records, Salvo Reina, Vito M. Reina, Eugenio A. Debbia

COBRA Preprint Series

Several statistical packages, either commercials or open-source, provide many methods for multi-factorial and discriminant analysis; such a software is poorly used by physicians. Appropriate models and tests have to be used pending on the kind of experiment scheme, adequate distribution assumption are needed for variables and parameters and proper data validation have to be verified for historical records. These are but a few of many critical aspects for a robust and trustable data interpretation needed in the Evidence Based Medicine era. Clinicians always wish to be able to quickly interpreter diagnostic records to discriminate, or alternatively correlate, coherent groups of …

Perceived Smoking Environment And Smoking Initiation Among Multi-Ethnic Urban Girls, Tracy R. Nichols, Amanda Birnbaum, Sara Birnel, Gilbert J. Botvin

Department of Public Health Scholarship and Creative Works

Purpose

To examine associations between the perceived smoking environment and smoking initiation among urban multi-ethnic adolescent girls in New York City.

Methods

Self-report surveys completed in grades 7, 8, and 9 assessed girls’ (n = 858) smoking initiation, and perceived smoking environment (family smoking, friends’ smoking, smoking norms, and cigarette availability). Carbon monoxide breath samples were collected from girls using a variation of the bogus pipeline procedure.

Results

Differences were found in smoking prevalence with white girls reporting the highest prevalence of smoking at baseline and the greatest increase in smoking prevalence from seventh to eighth grade. Black girls reported …

Need For Cognition And Message Complexity In Motivating Fruit And Vegetable Intake Among Callers To The Cancer Information Service, Pamela Williams-Piehota, Judith Pizarro, Stephanie A. Navarro Silvera, Linda Mowad, Peter Salovey

Department of Public Health Scholarship and Creative Works

This field experiment examined the impact of an individual's need for cognition (NFC; the tendency to enjoy thinking deeply about issues), complex versus simple messages, and the interaction of NFC and message type on encouraging fruit and vegetable consumption. Callers to the Cancer Information Service of the National Cancer Institute (N = 517) were asked to participate in the experiment at the end of their call. Individual NFC was assessed, and participants were assigned randomly to receive a telephone message promoting fruit and vegetable consumption that was either complex and multifaceted or simple and straightforward. Similarly constructed brochures were mailed …

Are Residents' Extended Shifts Associated With Adverse Events, Mariana Szklo-Coxe

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

First paragraph:

Heated debates and controversies surrounding the regulation of medical residents’ work hours have raged for over twenty years. In the wake of Libby Zion’s untimely death in 1984 and resulting recommendations by the Bell Commission, New York State enacted legislation (Code 405.4) governing residents’ working conditions and supervision [1]. Since then, there has been growing interest in regulating residents’ work hours, culminating recently (2003–2004) in national guidelines and legislation on duty-hour restrictions both in the United States and Europe [2,3].

Molecular Epidemiology Of Antibiotic Resistant Salmonella Enterica Strains From Different Animal And Human Sources In Ireland, David George Lee

Theses

In this study, 176 isolates of Salmonella were collected from different laboratories in Ireland. All isolates were confirmed to be of the genus Salmonella by performing bacteriological and biochemical tests. Briefly, all isolates were cultured onto XLD agar after which pure cultures were verified and stocked at this institute. Definitive identification was carried out using the API 20-E system and a separate urease test was also performed on all isolates. After confirmation of the genus, all isolates were prepared for antibiotic susceptibility testing and r-types were determined using sixteen antibiotics. Depending on the antibiotic resistance profiles, isolates were selected for …

Is The Number Of Sick Persons In A Cohort Constant Over Time?, Paula Diehr, Ann Derleth, Anne Newman, Liming Cai

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Objectives: To estimate the number of persons in a cohort who are sick, over time.

Methods: We calculated the number of sick persons in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a cohort study of older adults followed up to 14 years, using eight definitions of “healthy” and “sick”. We projected the number in each health state over time for a birth cohort.

Results: The number of sick persons in CHS was approximately constant for 14 years, for all definitions of “sick”. The estimated number of sick persons in the birth cohort was approximately constant from ages 55-75, after which it decreased. …

Secular Trends In Life Expectancy By Diet Status Among Never Smoking Seventh-Day Adventists, Noha Salim Daher

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

To evaluate how life expectancy changed by age and secular time from 1960 through 1988, two cohort studies, the Adventist Mortality Study (AMS, 1960-1985, n = 27,530) and the Adventist Health Study (AHS, 1976-1988, n = 34,192) were combined. The life expectancy of omnivores was compared to vegetarians separately in never-smoking males and females for all-cause mortality, and where the cause of death was cardiovascular disease or all site-cancer. Life expectancies were calculated for subjects who had survived to ages 30, 50, 70, and 80 during six calendar periods: 1960- 1964, 1965-1969, 1970-1974, 1975-1979, 1980-1984, and 1985-1988. Ten-year calendar periods …

Evaluation Of Over-The-Counter Sales As A Syndromic Surveillance Method For Waterborne Disease In New Mexico, Camilla M. Bustamante

Health, Exercise, and Sports Sciences ETDs

This research evaluates the use of Over-the-Counter anti-diarrheal medications as a potential syndromic indicator and surveillance mechanism for waterborne disease in New Mexico. The purpose was to determine the usefulness of such data for either supplemental or stand alone use in a system for waterborne disease surveillance. The use of syndromic indicators for waterborne disease was elevated in 1993 after an outbreak of cryptosporidium was detected in Milwaukee Wisconsin by an alert pharmacist who noticed increased sales of over-the-counter medications over a period of time. In 2001, terrorist threats for anthrax exposure to U.S. populations further prompted funding and research …

Insights Into Latent Class Analysis, Margaret S. Pepe, Holly Janes

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Latent class analysis is a popular statistical technique for estimating disease prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity. It is used when a gold standard assessment of disease is not available but results of multiple imperfect tests are. We derive analytic expressions for the parameter estimates in terms of the raw data, under the conditional independence assumption. These expressions indicate explicitly how observed two- and three-way associations between test results are used to infer disease prevalence and test operating characteristics. Although reasonable if the conditional independence model holds, the estimators have no basis when it fails. We therefore caution against using …

Standardizing Markers To Evaluate And Compare Their Performances, Margaret S. Pepe, Gary M. Longton

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Introduction: Markers that purport to distinguish subjects with a condition from those without a condition must be evaluated rigorously for their classification accuracy. A single approach to statistically evaluating and comparing markers is not yet established.

Methods: We suggest a standardization that uses the marker distribution in unaffected subjects as a reference. For an affected subject with marker value Y, the standardized placement value is the proportion of unaffected subjects with marker values that exceed Y.

Results: We apply the standardization to two illustrative datasets. In patients with pancreatic cancer placement values calculated for the CA 19-9 marker are smaller …

Combining Predictors For Classification Using The Area Under The Roc Curve, Margaret S. Pepe, Tianxi Cai, Zheng Zhang, Gary M. Longton

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No single biomarker for cancer is considered adequately sensitive and specific for cancer screening. It is expected that the results of multiple markers will need to be combined in order to yield adequately accurate classification. Typically the objective function that is optimized for combining markers is the likelihood function. In this paper we consider an alternative objective function -- the area under the empirical receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We note that it yields consistent estimates of parameters in a generalized linear model for the risk score but does not require specifying the link function. Like logistic regression it yields …

Ukimwi : Hiv/Aids In Kenya, Virginia Wangui Gathua

Graduate Research Papers

This manuscript points out the deficiencies school counseling programs in Kenya for children/adolescents affected/infected by HIV/AIDS. In addition, the paper is intended to inform, guide, and encourage policy makers, program developers, and school counselors as they develop school counseling interventions for the disease. The focus of the paper is limited to children/adolescents because they bear the greatest burden of HIV/ AIDS infections. The paper also provides evidence for planning and implementation of culturally and developmentally relevant, school-based counseling interventions. The paper explores the impact of HIV/AIDS on Kenyan children/adolescents infected/affected by HIV/AIDS and points out the factors that hinder prevention …

Semiparametric Methods For The Binormal Model With Multiple Biomarkers, Debashis Ghosh

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Abstract: In diagnostic medicine, there is great interest in developing strategies for combining biomarkers in order to optimize classification accuracy. A popular model that has been used when one biomarker is available is the binormal model. Extension of the model to accommodate multiple biomarkers has not been considered in this literature. Here, we consider a multivariate binormal framework for combining biomarkers using copula functions that leads to a natural multivariate extension of the binormal model. Estimation in this model will be done using rank-based procedures. We also discuss adjustment for covariates in this class of models and provide a simple …

A Marginal Model Approach For Analysis Of Multi-Reader Multi-Test Receiver Operating Characteristic (Roc) Data, Xiao Song, Xiao-Hua Zhou

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a popular tool to characterize the capabilities of diagnostic tests with continuous or ordinal responses. One common design for assessing the accuracy of diagnostic tests is to have each patient examined by multiple readers with multiple tests; this design is most commonly used in a radiology setting, where the results of diagnostic tests depend on a radiologist's subjective interpretation. The most widely used approach for analyzing data from such a study is the Dorfman-Berbaum-Metz (DBM) method (Dorfman, Berbaum and Metz, 1992) which utilizes a standard analysis of variance (ANOVA) model for the jackknife …

Non-Parametric Estimation Of Roc Curves In The Absence Of A Gold Standard, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Pete Castelluccio, Chuan Zhou

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In evaluation of diagnostic accuracy of tests, a gold standard on the disease status is required. However, in many complex diseases, it is impossible or unethical to obtain such the gold standard. If an imperfect standard is used as if it were a gold standard, the estimated accuracy of the tests would be biased. This type of bias is called imperfect gold standard bias. In this paper we develop a maximum likelihood (ML) method for estimating ROC curves and their areas of ordinal-scale tests in the absence of a gold standard. Our simulation study shows the proposed estimates for the …

Accuracy Of Msi Testing In Predicting Germline Mutations Of Msh2 And Mlh1: A Case Study In Bayesian Meta-Analysis Of Diagnostic Tests Without A Gold Standard, Sining Chen, Patrice Watson, Giovanni Parmigiani

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Microsatellite instability (MSI) testing is a common screening procedure used to identify families that may harbor mutations of a mismatch repair gene and therefore may be at high risk for hereditary colorectal cancer. A reliable estimate of sensitivity and specificity of MSI for detecting germline mutations of mismatch repair genes is critical in genetic counseling and colorectal cancer prevention. Several studies published results of both MSI and mutation analysis on the same subjects. In this article we perform a meta-analysis of these studies and obtain estimates that can be directly used in counseling and screening. In particular we estimate the …

Combining Predictors For Classification Using The Area Under The Roc Curve, Margaret S. Pepe, Tianxi Cai, Zheng Zhang

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We compare simple logistic regression with an alternative robust procedure for constructing linear predictors to be used for the two state classification task. Theoritical advantages of the robust procedure over logistic regression are: (i) although it assumes a generalized linear model for the dichotomous outcome variable, it does not require specification of the link function; (ii) it accommodates case-control designs even when the model is not logistic; and (iii) it yields sensible results even when the generalized linear model assumption fails to hold. Surprisingly, we find that the linear predictor derived from the logistic regression likelihood is very robust in …

Model Checking Techniques For Regression Models In Cancer Screening, Debashis Ghosh

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

There has been much work on developing statistical procedures for associating tumor size with the probability of detecting a metastasis. Recently, Ghosh (2004) developed a unified statistical framework in which equivalences with censored data structures and models for tumor size and metastasis were examined. Based on this framework, we consider model checking techniques for semiparametric regression models in this paper. The procedures are for checking the additive hazards model. Goodness of fit methods are described for assessing functional form of covariates as well as the additive hazards assumption. The finite-sample properties of the methods are assessed using simulation studies.

Binary Isotonic Regression Procedures, With Application To Cancer Biomarkers, Debashis Ghosh, Moulinath Banerjee, Pinaki Biswas

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

There is a lot of interest in the development and characterization of new biomarkers for screening large populations for disease. In much of the literature on diagnostic testing, increased levels of a biomarker correlate with increased disease risk. However, parametric forms are typically used to associate these quantities. In this article, we specify a monotonic relationship between biomarker levels with disease risk. This leads to consideration of a nonparametric regression model for a single biomarker. Estimation results using isotonic regression-type estimators and asymptotic results are given. We also discuss confidence set estimation in this setting and propose three procedures for …

Semiparametic Models And Estimation Procedures For Binormal Roc Curves With Multiple Biomarkers, Debashis Ghosh

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In diagnostic medicine, there is great interest in developing strategies for combining biomarkers in order to optimize classification accuracy. A popular model that has been used for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve modelling when one biomarker is available is the binormal model. Extension of the model to accommodate multiple biomarkers has not been considered in this literature. Here, we consider a multivariate binormal framework for combining biomarkers using copula functions that leads to a natural multivariate extension of the binormal model. Estimation in this model will be done using rank-based procedures. We show that the Van der Waerden rank score …

Evaluating Markers For Selecting A Patient's Treatment, Xiao Song, Margaret S. Pepe

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Selecting the best treatment for a patient's disease may be facilitated by evaluating clinical characteristics or biomarker measurements at diagnosis. We consider how to evaluate the potential of such measurements to impact on treatment selection algorithms. For example, magnetic resonance neurographic imaging is potentially useful for deciding whether a patient should be treated surgically for carpal tunnel syndrome or if he/she should receive less invasive conservative therapy. We propose a graphical display, the selection impact (SI) curve, that shows the population response rate as a function of treatment selection criteria based on the marker. The curve can be useful for …

A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach To Multirater Correlated Roc Analysis, Tim Johnson, Valen Johnson

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In a common ROC study design, several readers are asked to rate diagnostics of the same cases processed under different modalities. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical model that facilitates the analysis of this study design by explicitly modeling the three sources of variation inherent to it. In so doing, we achieve substantial reductions in the posterior uncertainty associated with estimates of the differences in areas under the estimated ROC curves and corresponding reductions in the mean squared error (MSE) of these estimates. Based on simulation studies, both the widths of confidence intervals and MSE of estimates of differences in the …

A Bayesian Chi-Squared Test For Goodness Of Fit, Valen Johnson

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

This article describes an extension of classical x 2 goodness-of-fit tests to Bayesian model assessment. The extension, which essentially involvesevaluating Pearson's goodness-of-fit statistic at a parameter value drawn from its posterior distribution, has the important property that it is asymptoti-cally distributed as a x2 random variable on K-1 degrees of freedom, indepen-dently of the dimension of the underlying parameter vector. By averaging over the posterior distribution of this statistic, a global goodness-of-fit diagnostic is obtained. Advantages of this diagnostic{which may be interpreted as the area under an ROC curve{include ease of interpretation, computational conve-nience, and favorable power properties. The proposed …

Survival Model Predictive Accuracy And Roc Curves, Patrick Heagerty, Yingye Zheng

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The predictive accuracy of a survival model can be summarized using extensions of the proportion of variation explained by the model, or R^2, commonly used for continuous response models, or using extensions of sensitivity and specificity which are commonly used for binary response models.

In this manuscript we propose new time-dependent accuracy summaries based on time-specific versions of sensitivity and specificity calculated over risk sets. We connect the accuracy summaries to a previously proposed global concordance measure which is a variant of Kendall's tau. In addition, we show how standard Cox regression output can be used to obtain estimates of …

Semiparametric Estimation Of Time-Dependent: Roc Curves For Longitudinal Marker Data, Yingye Zheng, Patrick Heagerty

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

One approach to evaluating the strength of association between a longitudinal marker process and a key clinical event time is through predictive regression methods such as a time-dependent covariate hazard model. For example, a time-varying covariate Cox model specifies the instantaneous risk of the event as a function of the time-varying marker and additional covariates. In this manuscript we explore a second complementary approach which characterizes the distribution of the marker as a function of both the measurement time and the ultimate event time. Our goal is to flexibly extend the standard diagnostic accuracy concepts of sensitivity and specificity to …

Decreasing Barriers For Teens: Evaluation Of A New Teenage Pregnancy Prevention Strategy In School-Based Clinics, Abbey C. Sidebottom, Amanda Birnbaum, Sarah S. Nafstad

Department of Public Health Scholarship and Creative Works

Sidebottom et al seek to evaluate the effects of the change in distribution systems on students' receipt of requested contraceptives and demand for contraceptive school-based clinics (SBC). The result of the study reveals that the average number of requests per student was higher under the voucher system, possibly as a consequence of expires vouchers resulting in repeated requests. The findings also suggest that SBCs could go a step further in reducing adolescents' barriers to accessing contraceptives by adopting an on-site direct delivery system..

Adjusting For Non-Ignorable Verification Bias In Clinical Studies For Alzheimer’S Disease, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Pete Castelluccio

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

A common problem for comparing the relative accuracy of two screening tests for Alzheimer’s disease (D) in a two-stage design study is verification bias. If the verification bias can be assumed to be ignorable, Zhou and Higgs (2000) have proposed a maximum likelihood approach to compare the relative accuracy of screening tests in a two-stage design study. However, if the verification mechanism also depends on the unobserved disease status, the ignorable assumption does not hold. In this paper, we discuss how to use a profile likelihood approach to compare the relative accuracy of two screening tests for AD without assuming …

A New Confidence Interval For The Difference Between Two Binomial Proportions Of Paired Data, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Gengsheng Qin

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Motivated by a study on comparing sensitivities and specificities of two diagnostic tests in a paired design when the sample size is small, we first derived an Edgeworth expansion for the studentized difference between two binomial proportions of paired data. The Edgeworth expansion can help us understand why the usual Wald interval for the difference has poor coverage performance in the small sample size. Based on the Edgeworth expansion, we then derived a transformation based confidence interval for the difference. The new interval removes the skewness in the Edgeworth expansion; the new interval is easy to compute, and its coverage …

Identifying Target Populations For Screening Or Not Screening Using Logic Regression, Holly Janes, Margaret S. Pepe, Charles Kooperberg, Polly Newcomb

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Colorectal cancer remains a significant public health concern despite the fact that effective screening procedures exist and that the disease is treatable when detected at early stages. Numerous risk factors for colon cancer have been identified, but none are very predictive alone. We sought to determine whether there are certain combinations of risk factors that distinguish well between cases and controls, and that could be used to identify subjects at particularly high or low risk of the disease to target screening. Using data from the Seattle site of the Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (C-CFR), we fit logic regression models to …