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2009

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Articles 61 - 90 of 124

Full-Text Articles in Other Psychiatry and Psychology

Integrated Multimodal Communications Management For Airborne Command And Control, Dianne K. Popik, Victor S. Finomore, Douglas S. Brungart Jan 2009

Integrated Multimodal Communications Management For Airborne Command And Control, Dianne K. Popik, Victor S. Finomore, Douglas S. Brungart

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Increasing the communication efficiency and accuracy associated with Command and Control (C2) operations is crucial in many aerospace applications. This communication intensive environment imposes a high workload on Air Traffic Controllers and other C2 personnel who rely heavily on a variety of communication tools to efficiently plan, direct, coordinate, and control assets during missions. The C2 task is further complicated by the suboptimal integration of the various communication media utilized in the operational environment. The fielded communication tool suites have serious limitations and are not poised to meet the needs of advancing technology. A multidisciplinary research team in the Battlespace …


Nt-Seev: A Model Of Attention Capture And Noticing On The Flight Deck, Dr. Christopher Wickens, Angelia Sebok, Julia Bzostek, Kelly Steelman-Allen, Jason Mccarley, Nadine Sarter Jan 2009

Nt-Seev: A Model Of Attention Capture And Noticing On The Flight Deck, Dr. Christopher Wickens, Angelia Sebok, Julia Bzostek, Kelly Steelman-Allen, Jason Mccarley, Nadine Sarter

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

N-SEEV is a model that predicts the noticeability of events that occur in the context of routine task-driven scanning across large scale visual environments such as the flight deck or ATC work station. The model is an extension of the SEEV (salience, effort, expectancy, value) model, incorporating the influence of attentional set and allowing the possibility of a dynamic environment. The model was validated against two empirical data sets. In a study of pilot scanning across a high fidelity automated 747 cockpit, the SEEV component of the model predicted the distribution of attention with a correlation of 0.85. In a …


Aviator 2030 - Ability Requirements In Future Atm Systems, Hinnerk Eißfeldt Jan 2009

Aviator 2030 - Ability Requirements In Future Atm Systems, Hinnerk Eißfeldt

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

‘Aviator 2030’ is a project at DLR on ability requirements for operators in future ATM systems. Several workshops have been conducted with pilots and air traffic controllers to learn how today’s aviation professionals see their jobs develop in future. Using separated workshops first, pilots and air traffic controllers were introduced to current developments within the context of Single European Sky SES, a large-scale program comparable to NextGen in the United States. Following the ‘future-workshop’ concept participants developed scenarios of future ATM from their professional background and experience. In a third workshop pilots and controllers met to exchange and discuss their …


Vigilant Warrior™: A Selection Tool For Vigilance Performance, David E. Weldon Ph.D., Clark Shingledecker Ph.D. Jan 2009

Vigilant Warrior™: A Selection Tool For Vigilance Performance, David E. Weldon Ph.D., Clark Shingledecker Ph.D.

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

In this paper, we describe an individual differences model of vigilance performance—the ability to maintain one’s focus of attention and remain alert for prolonged periods of time—and summarize our model evaluation research. Our goal was an automated test battery (Vigilant Warrior™) that could be employed to select personnel with superior abilities for assignment to critical vigilance duties. Thus, we conducted extensive laboratory research to identify an optimal set of vigilance predictors and validate them against a simulated, real-world, electronic-display, battlefieldmonitoring task with high vigilance requirements. The results confirmed that an objective, Short Vigilance Task (SVT), coupled with analytic skill and …


The Technological, Financial, And Social Realities That Are Defining The Aircraft Mechanic Of Tomorrow, Glen R. Gallway Jan 2009

The Technological, Financial, And Social Realities That Are Defining The Aircraft Mechanic Of Tomorrow, Glen R. Gallway

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Today it is becoming increasingly difficult to describe maintenance roles because an enormous number of once stable factors affecting the maintenance person and process are changing. Technology changes like software based aircraft, air/ground/satellite/airport system integration, highly complexity systems, and other technology issues are not currently part of a maintenance person’s normal skill set but are already part of aircraft maintenance needs. Many of the change issues that are considered to be “TECHNOLOGY” initiated but usually are caused by changing financial and/or social requirements that has occurred. This is a circular result in that when technology changes occur it further drives …


Coherence, Complexity, And Information Flow: Self-Organizing Processes In Psychotherapy, David Pincus Jan 2009

Coherence, Complexity, And Information Flow: Self-Organizing Processes In Psychotherapy, David Pincus

Psychology Faculty Books and Book Chapters

"This chapter is written in the spirit of optimism, suggesting that self-organization is just such a general theory that may assist in providing a deeper, scientifically grounded understanding of the complex biopsychosocial processes involved in psychotherapy. To provide some foundation to this rather grand suggestion, the following review rests on five more specific theoretical propositions stemming from self-organization theory... The analysis of these propositions begins with an integrative review of traditional theories of interpersonal process through the lens of nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS) and self-organization theory in particular. Next, the contemporary empirical and theoretical developments using NDS to understand psychotherapy …


Cue-Based Training Effects On Visual Scanpaths During Weather-Related Decision Making, Michael W. Sawyer, Scott A. Shappell Jan 2009

Cue-Based Training Effects On Visual Scanpaths During Weather-Related Decision Making, Michael W. Sawyer, Scott A. Shappell

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Flight into adverse weather remains a leading cause of fatal accidents in general aviation. The situation assessment hypothesis suggests that pilots continue into adverse weather because they fail to accurately recognize the weather conditions present. In this study 20 participants’ eye movements were tracked as they viewed various weather scenes before and after training. The results showed that after training participants made decisions using fewer visual fixations and less total gaze time. Further, the average time until first fixation on critical weather features was decreased after training. Participants were effectively taught what weather features are important, thus allowing participants to …


Effects Of Time Pressure On The Use Of An Automated Decision Support System For Strike Planning, Yves Boussemart, Birsen Donmez, M. L. Cummings, Jonathan Las Fargeas Jan 2009

Effects Of Time Pressure On The Use Of An Automated Decision Support System For Strike Planning, Yves Boussemart, Birsen Donmez, M. L. Cummings, Jonathan Las Fargeas

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

This paper describes the results of an experiment designed to examine the effects of time pressure on behavioral patterns. The main research hypothesis is that people under time pressure tend to increasingly rely on automation in order to cope with the added workload. The context is that of a missile strike planner having to create a set of matches between resources (missiles) and requirements (missions). We introduce time pressure by changing the temporal requirements towards the end of the mission. Overall performance, calls to automation and qualitative strategies are recorded and analyzed using ANOVA and other nonparametric tests. The main …


Utility And Recognition Of Lines And Linear Patterns On Electronic Displays Depicting Aeronautical Charting Information, Divya C. Chandra Jan 2009

Utility And Recognition Of Lines And Linear Patterns On Electronic Displays Depicting Aeronautical Charting Information, Divya C. Chandra

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

A study was conducted to explore the utility and recognition of lines and linear patterns on electronic displays depicting aeronautical charting information, such as electronic charts and moving map displays. The goal of this research is to support the development of more standardized and consistent lines and linear patterns for these displays. Data were collected from 273 professional and private pilots. First pilots sorted the names of 65 types of lines and linear patterns in terms of utility of the item. Next they tried to identify nine test linear patterns shown in isolation. Results of the sorting task indicated that …


Decision Factors Influencing Stimulant Use Among Fighter Aircrew During Combat Operations, Russell K. Gore M.D., Eric D. Hermes M.D. Jan 2009

Decision Factors Influencing Stimulant Use Among Fighter Aircrew During Combat Operations, Russell K. Gore M.D., Eric D. Hermes M.D.

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

During long combat missions in fighter aircraft, passive in-flight fatigue countermeasures are often not feasible. As a result, stimulant medications (Go Pills) may be used in-flight. The present study attempts to describe the individual decision factors influencing stimulant use during combat operations. Methods: 35 deployed F-15E aircrews participated in this study. Prior to the deployment, interviews were conducted to identify factors influencing the inflight decision to use stimulants. Based on this qualitative information, a novel survey instrument was developed. Results: Surveys were completed after 111 sorties. Results were summarized graphically. Conclusions: Active and anticipated in-flight fatigue were the most common …


Human-Assisted Logistics Optimization (Halo): Support For Timely Logistics Decision-Making, David E. Weldon Jan 2009

Human-Assisted Logistics Optimization (Halo): Support For Timely Logistics Decision-Making, David E. Weldon

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

The need for rapid response capabilities and effective joint operations dictates a new approach in which deployment planning is integrated into the mission-planning processes. In the research reported here, we explored new technologies to enable rapid identification of feasible transportation options and enhance shared awareness of commander’s intent and inter-command collaboration. Our solution extends state-of-the-art Tabu Search algorithms, producing effective transportation solutions in significantly less time than current models. The human guidance and collaborative components of HALO enhance performance by accommodating dynamic operational requirements. HALO benchmark tests demonstrated superiority to other optimization algorithms on Multi-Vehicle, Pickup and Delivery Problems with …


The Mystery Of Distributed Learning, Gavan Lintern Jan 2009

The Mystery Of Distributed Learning, Gavan Lintern

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

There are contrasting opinions about the value of distributed learning. Several textbooks on general training issues promote it as an effective training strategy while many researchers who have focused specifically on this topic argue that distributed practice is no more effective than non-distributed practice. It is noteworthy that most who promote distributed learning base their opinion on belief rather than on experimental research while most who argue that it is of no value base their opinions on empirical data restricted primarily to the learning of simple motor skills. Additionally, much of the distributed learning research has employed the experimentally convenient …


On Adaptive Autimation As A Solution To The Gloc Conundrum, Lloyd D. Tripp, Joel S. Warm, Gerald Matthews, Peter Y. Chiu, R. Bruce Bracken Jan 2009

On Adaptive Autimation As A Solution To The Gloc Conundrum, Lloyd D. Tripp, Joel S. Warm, Gerald Matthews, Peter Y. Chiu, R. Bruce Bracken

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Gravity-induced loss of consciousness (GLOC) is a major problem facing fighter pilots. In the throes of GLOC, pilots can travel 12 miles without control of their aircraft. The GLOC problem has proven to be difficult to resolve. Solutions involving repeated exposures to GLOC, G-suit pressure manipulation, intense sensory stimulation, and exposure to –G following the GLOC event have been unsuccessful. It is evident that a different approach is needed. One possibility might be an adaptive automation system to warn pilots of the imminence of a GLOC event. A key issue in adaptive automation is the cue to be employed in …


Example Of Work Domain Analysis Applied To Total Energy Control System, Matthijs Amelink, M.M. (René) Van Paassen, Max Mulder Jan 2009

Example Of Work Domain Analysis Applied To Total Energy Control System, Matthijs Amelink, M.M. (René) Van Paassen, Max Mulder

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Automation is often accused of adding to the complexity of a system and unnecessarily increasing operator’s workload, and the potential for human error. An approach is needed that guides designers to make the right design choices. Cognitive Systems Engineering (CSE) is a promising approach. However, this field is still young and tangible examples of automation design with an explicit CSE approach do not exist. This paper describes how the design of Total Energy Control System (TECS) that was founded in the late 1970’s can be regarded as an example avant la letter. TECS is an automated flight control system designed …


Are We Getting The Message Across? Human Factors And System Safety Education – What Impact Has It Had?, Sue Burdekin Jan 2009

Are We Getting The Message Across? Human Factors And System Safety Education – What Impact Has It Had?, Sue Burdekin

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Education in human factors and systems safety has been incorporated into aviation degree programs at university level for many years. However, there has been little research to measure empirically the impact that this education has had on safety outcomes in the field when the students have completed their degrees. A study is presently being conducted involving graduates from the University of NSW at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Australia who had obtained the degree of Bachelor of Technology in Aviation. Following their graduation, these students had been posted to various flying squadrons within the Australian Defence Force in an …


Conceptualizing Spatial Relations In Flight Training, Edwin Hutchins, Will Newsome, Christina Middleton Jan 2009

Conceptualizing Spatial Relations In Flight Training, Edwin Hutchins, Will Newsome, Christina Middleton

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

In the aviation human factors literature, situation awareness (SA) is usually described as arising from disembodied mental processes. Action has virtually no role in current theories of SA. This disembodied view is out of step with contemporary theories that take cognitive processes to be distributed, situated, and above all, embodied. This shift in theory suggests that SA ought to be an embodied phenomenon, and given the highly spatial nature of SA, it would be quite surprising to discover that the body did not play a key role in the construction, elaboration, and maintenance of SA. In this paper we examine …


Team Errors In Air Traffic Control: Analysis Based On Voluntary Reports, Renli Lu, Yan Zhou, Mu Zhou Jan 2009

Team Errors In Air Traffic Control: Analysis Based On Voluntary Reports, Renli Lu, Yan Zhou, Mu Zhou

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

By using the framework of team errors taxonomy(Sasou & Reason, 1999)and Threat and Error Management (TEM), operation errors reported in the ATC voluntary safety report system are analysed. Team errors have been proved in this research as a main risk source of ATC, a sophisticated social-technical system. Team errors contributing to 31% of the total reporting ATC errors. According to the results of sample statistics and analysis of typical cases of team errors, the main types and distributions of ATC team errors have been identified, as well as the framework and importance of sequencing of the team PSFs (Performance Shaping …


A Compatibility Analysis Of Attitude Display Formats, Motonori Yamaguchi, Robert W. Proctor Jan 2009

A Compatibility Analysis Of Attitude Display Formats, Motonori Yamaguchi, Robert W. Proctor

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

The present research investigated factors that contribute to the compatibility of attitude display formats with actions taken to control an aircraft. In three experiments, participants performed a speeded response task in which they responded by banking an aircraft according to a nonspatial aspect of lateralized stimuli. The format of attitude display was horizon-moving or aircraftmoving, and each participant used normal and reversed controls. These manipulations dissociated influences of three response factors (aircraft, display, hand) on the stimulus-response compatibility, or Simon, effect. The influences of the three factors on the Simon effect were nearly additive, and their contributions depended on the …


Manual And Cooperative Control Mission Management Methods For Wide Area Search Munitions, Thomas R. Carretta, Lamar Warfield, Michael J. Patzek Jan 2009

Manual And Cooperative Control Mission Management Methods For Wide Area Search Munitions, Thomas R. Carretta, Lamar Warfield, Michael J. Patzek

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Wide Area Search Munitions (WASM) combine the attributes of unmanned aerial vehicles with those of traditional munitions. The WASM concept envisions artificially intelligent munitions that communicate and coordinate with one another and with human operators to effectively perform their tasks. This study examined target acquisition for unaided operators with that of an automated cooperative controller for a complex task involving the prosecution of groundbased targets. Participants completed nine trials for each control mode (manual and cooperative) by number of WASMs (4, 8, and 16) combination. Target hit rate was not affected by control mode or number of WASMs. However, target …


Robot Operator Specifications Derived From The Occupational Information Network, Michael D. Coovert, Linda R. Elliott Jan 2009

Robot Operator Specifications Derived From The Occupational Information Network, Michael D. Coovert, Linda R. Elliott

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

The use of robots in aviation is widespread, for use as targets, decoys, remote sensing, reconnaissance, and increasingly for combat missions. Robots come in all forms and capabilities, from handheld micro air vehicles to hypersonic versions capable of high altitude long distance missions. At the same time, ground-based robots have proven effective for both military and civilian applications such as manufacturing and remote sensing / manipulations. Certainly, Talon and Packbot robots have proven their worth in battle conditions. Just as there is great variance in the type of robot being developed and utilized, so too is there tremendous variation operator …


Vigilant Spirit Control Station: A Research Testbed For Multi-Uas Supervisory Control Interfaces, Allen J. Rowe, Kristen K. Liggett Ph.D., Jason E. Davis Jan 2009

Vigilant Spirit Control Station: A Research Testbed For Multi-Uas Supervisory Control Interfaces, Allen J. Rowe, Kristen K. Liggett Ph.D., Jason E. Davis

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Since its inception, the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) has adapted to military life and has subsequently become an integral part of modern day warfare. Although unmanned, this technology remains dependent on human interaction for optimal function. Bridging the gap between rapidly advancing technology and the human, the Vigilant Spirit Control Station (VSCS) serves as a multi-faceted facilitator in areas ranging from research to combat missions. The result, consequentially, is an increase in the efficiency of the program by enabling a single operator to supervise multiple vehicles. Streamlining technology is tantamount to the program’s success. Developed with this in mind, VSCS …


Fractal Time Series Analysis Of Human Heartbeat Intervals In A Change Blindness Task, Sheldon M. Russell, Gregory J. Funke, Camilla C. Knott, Benjamin A. Knott Jan 2009

Fractal Time Series Analysis Of Human Heartbeat Intervals In A Change Blindness Task, Sheldon M. Russell, Gregory J. Funke, Camilla C. Knott, Benjamin A. Knott

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Fractal analysis is a set of techniques used in the study of complex systems to understand patterns of variability that are often observed in non-linear and natural systems. These techniques have been successfully applied to the study of human physiology, such as gait, heart rate variability, and respiration (West, 2004). Understanding variability in physiological measures may provide insight into human performance, individual workload, and stress. As an exploration of the possible contributions of fractal analysis to human performance, heart rate data from an existing research study was re-analyzed using methods common in fractal analysis of time series data. Results indicate …


Predicting The Unpredictable: Estimating Human Performance Parameters For Off-Nominal Events, Becky L. Hooey, Christopher D. Wickens, Ellen Salud, Angelia Sebok, Shaun Hutchins, Brian F. Gore Jan 2009

Predicting The Unpredictable: Estimating Human Performance Parameters For Off-Nominal Events, Becky L. Hooey, Christopher D. Wickens, Ellen Salud, Angelia Sebok, Shaun Hutchins, Brian F. Gore

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

A parameter meta-analysis was conducted to characterize human responses to off-nominal events. The probability of detecting an off-nominal event was influenced by characteristics of the offnominal event scenario (phase of flight, expectancy, and event location) and the presence of advanced cockpit technologies (head-up displays, highway-in-the-sky displays, datalink, and graphical route displays). The results revealed that the presence of these advanced technologies hindered event detection reflecting cognitive tunneling and pilot complacency effects.


Conflict Alerts And False Alerts In En-Route Air Traffic Control: An Empirical Study Of Causes And Consequences, Christopher D. Wickens, Stephen Rice, David Keller, Jamie Hughes, Shaun Hutchins Jan 2009

Conflict Alerts And False Alerts In En-Route Air Traffic Control: An Empirical Study Of Causes And Consequences, Christopher D. Wickens, Stephen Rice, David Keller, Jamie Hughes, Shaun Hutchins

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

We analyzed the extent to which a high false alert rate of the conflict alerting (CA) system in five ATC facilities was the cause of a “cry-wolf” effect, whereby true alerts of a pending loss of separation were associated with either controller failure to respond or a delayed response. Radar track data surrounding 497 CA’s were examined and from these we extracted information as to whether the alert was true or false, whether a trajectory change was (response) or was not (non-response) evident, whether a loss of separation occurred, and the controller response time to the CA. Results revealed an …


Assisting Air Traffic Control In Planning And Monitoring Continuous Descent Approach Procedures, A. Van Der Eijk, M. Mulder, M.M. (René) Van Paassen, A. C. In ‘T Veld Jan 2009

Assisting Air Traffic Control In Planning And Monitoring Continuous Descent Approach Procedures, A. Van Der Eijk, M. Mulder, M.M. (René) Van Paassen, A. C. In ‘T Veld

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

In advanced noise abatement procedures, the approach of an aircraft is optimized to reduce the noise on the ground. A drawback of many noise abatement procedures is that air traffic controllers are forced to increase spacing, leading to a significant reduction of runway capacity. A display, named the Time-Space Diagram, has been developed to assist controllers in metering, sequencing and merging aircraft flying noise abatement procedures such as the Continuous Descent Approach. Although initial tests were promising, it was recommended that the information could be enhanced by supporting common controller spacing techniques. The improved display was tested in an experiment, …


Usage Data From Users Of Two Synthetic Vision Systems, Dennis B. Beringer Jan 2009

Usage Data From Users Of Two Synthetic Vision Systems, Dennis B. Beringer

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Although much research has been conducted regarding display design and formatting criteria for terrain-depicting or synthetic-vision displays, little data have been collected concerning how General Aviation pilots use fielded displays. Structured interviews were conducted with a small sample (10; 33% response rate) of users of two fielded synthetic-vision (SV) displays, one with selectable Highway-In-the-Sky (HITS) guidance and one without. Questions were asked concerning pilots’ experience (both general and specific with display systems) and use of the SV systems by phase of flight. Use rates for the first system (with a selectable HITS) were high, with “always used” being reported for …


Analysis Of Ramp Damage Incidents And Implications For Future Composite Aircraft Structure, Barbara G. Kanki Ph.D., Connie L. Brasil Jan 2009

Analysis Of Ramp Damage Incidents And Implications For Future Composite Aircraft Structure, Barbara G. Kanki Ph.D., Connie L. Brasil

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

As aircraft manufacturers use increasing amounts of composite materials in primary aircraft structures, an understanding of how composite damage may occur is crucial. One likely setting for composite damage events is the ramp and gate areas where “ramp rash” is a common occurrence. Costly consequences to airlines and the potential to jeopardize safety are an everyday hazard. In order to better understand how such events unfold in today’s operations, 104 ramp damage reports that were voluntarily submitted to the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) were analyzed. Factors including environmental conditions, aircraft state, aircraft damage locations and types of ramp …


Testing A Multidimensional Nonveridical Aircraft Collision Avoidance System, Experiments 3, 4, William R. Knecht Jan 2009

Testing A Multidimensional Nonveridical Aircraft Collision Avoidance System, Experiments 3, 4, William R. Knecht

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Veridical displays represent realistic scenes. State spaces are nonveridical displays representing ndimensional information. This research tests an aircraft separation maintenance display based on a nonveridical state space. In two experiments, licensed general aviation pilots flew flight scenarios, trying to deviate as little as possible from a pre-assigned course while still maintaining standard enroute separation from traffic. Flight performance using only a veridical cockpit display of traffic information with conflict alert capability was compared to performance augmented by a 4D nonveridical state space collision avoidance system. Results suggest that nonveridical display enhances operator performance on an aircraft separation maintenance task.


Stan And The Moon Illusion: Drilling Down At One End Of The Human Systems Integration Elephant, Hector M. Acosta Ph.D. Jan 2009

Stan And The Moon Illusion: Drilling Down At One End Of The Human Systems Integration Elephant, Hector M. Acosta Ph.D.

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

Dr. Stanley Nebuchadnezzar Roscoe invested decades researching a mystery born of observations separated by over two millennia. Characteristically, he addressed this peculiar problem set based on its Total System Performance implications, inspiring students and colleagues along the way. It was during his dissertation research that Stan found that pilots attempting landings using periscopic displays needed about 20% magnification to avoid landing long and hot. He did not know “the why” of his observation or its pragmatic solution. To Stan’s great frustration, nothing in the existing literature explained the phenomena. Years later, Stan and his students hit upon a mechanism that …


The Psychology Of Aviation Surprise: An 8 Year Update Regarding The Noticing Of Black Swans, Christopher D. Wickens Jan 2009

The Psychology Of Aviation Surprise: An 8 Year Update Regarding The Noticing Of Black Swans, Christopher D. Wickens

International Symposium on Aviation Psychology - 2009

We describe the limitation that people have in noticing very unexpected, surprising “offnominal”, or black swan events, as reflected in the psychology of change blindness; and how this limitation can compromise aviation safety. We then describe a three phase program of research examining pilot response to these black swan events, using (1) a meta-analysis to reveal the miss rate in noticing black swans, (2) a model of visual attention to predict this miss rate, and (3) the same model to make predictions regarding the safety impact of NextGen technology and procedures.