Disease Modeling Commons^™

Stochastic Invasion And Extinction In Environmentally Transmitted Diseases, Mahmudul Bari Hridoy, Lauren M. Childs

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Modified Sir Model Used To Investigate The Relationship Between Congenital And Adult Syphilis, Kaleesta R. Waysman

Honors Thesis

A complex SIR model integrating the relationship between adult and congenital syphilis was developed. The goal of the project was to determine the specific population(s) or control strategies that should be enforced, altered, or removed to decrease the number of children experiencing clinical sequelae due to congenital syphilis. Early clinical sequelae include hydrops fetalis, preterm birth, central nervous system infection, hepatosplenomegaly, hyperbilirubinemia, cholestasis, hemolytic anemia, snuffles, osteochondritis, and lesions or rashes in the palms and soles. Late clinical sequelae include interstitial keratitis, hearing loss, Hutchinson teeth, saber shins, Clutton joints, mulberry molars, and saddle nose. After implementing real-world data into …

Mathematical Modelling Of Disease Outbreak, Favour Christian, Matthew Molloy

SURE Journal: Science Undergraduate Research Experience Journal

Establishing a model framework for more research necessitates a thorough understanding of the causes, distribution, prevalence, and evolution of infectious illnesses. The main mathematical concept used in this modelling simulation is ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The purpose of this study was to investigate the significance of the many criteria linked to a zombie virus spread. The zombie framework provides an accessible and relatively simple representation of the nature of infectious disease spread, allowing for tractable assumptions and the development of more complex situations.

The models are designed around a zombie outbreak in which the zombie virus is spread through a …

Modeling Fast Information And Slow(Er) Disease Spreading: A Geometric Analysis, Iulia Martina Bulai, Mattia Sensi, Sara Sottile

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Assessing The Impact And Cost-Effectiveness Of Covid-19 Testing In Adult Social Care Homes In England, Siyu Chen

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Dual-Domain Clustering Of Spatiotemporal Infectious Disease Data, Samuel R. Thornton, Erin C.S. Acquesta, Patrick D. Finley, Mansoor A. Haider

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Information Feedback Delays Within Epidemic Models And Their Effect On Model Dynamics., Maria K. Bouka, Christopher Strickland Dr

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Impacts Of Climate Change On Vector-Borne Disease Burden In The United States: Exploring The Epidemiological Evidence, Leah V. Loetman

Honors Theses

Climate change models predict shifts in vector-borne diseases (VBDs) around the world, including in the United States. However, to my knowledge there has yet to be a comprehensive descriptive epidemiological study examining prevalence, geographic distribution, and trends for all tick- and mosquito-borne diseases in the United States. I compiled data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), which publishes yearly case numbers for 17 vector-borne diseases. However, these publications depend on a scattered framework of state regulations regarding disease reporting. I compiled data from the CDC to determine the current geographic distribution, prevalence, and trends of tick- and mosquito-borne …

Relative Efficacy Of Resource Constrained Forward And Backward Contact Tracing In An Open Population, Nicholas Roberts

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Multi-Strain Epidemic Model With Infected Vaccinated And Re-Infected Recovered Population: Application To Covid-19 Pandemic, Olusegun Michael Otunuga

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Prep Uptake And Adherence On The Spread Of Hiv In The Presence Of Casual And Long-Term Partnerships, Sylvia J. Gutowska, Katharine Gurski, Kathleen Hoffman

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

“Pandemias Políticas: The Effects Of Political And Social Instability On Infectious Disease Epidemiology In Latin America"”, Sarah H. Noonan

Senior Theses

This paper seeks to analyze the relationship between political and social unrest and conflict and infectious disease epidemiology in Latin America. An analysis of published literature regarding epidemiological, biomedical, political, and historical content was conducted to highlight potential connections between infectious disease epidemics and sociopolitical conflict in the region. Specific analyses of Smallpox, Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis, Chagas disease, Cholera, Dengue, and COVID-19 were conducted, in an effort to uncover potential causations and context of epidemics of these conditions. Results of this analysis depict a necessity for further research into public health and disease control mechanisms during times of conflict and …

An Odd-Protocol For Agent-Based Model For The Spread Of Covid-19 In Ireland, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Reports

No abstract provided.

Modeling The Spread Of Covid-19 Over Varied Contact Networks, Ryan L. Solorzano

Master's Theses

When attempting to mitigate the spread of an epidemic without the use of a vaccine, many measures may be made to dampen the spread of the disease such as physically distancing and wearing masks. The implementation of an effective test and quarantine strategy on a population has the potential to make a large impact on the spread of the disease as well. Testing and quarantining strategies become difficult when a portion of the population are asymptomatic spreaders of the disease. Additionally, a study has shown that randomly testing a portion of a population for asymptomatic individuals makes a small impact …

The Effects Of Differences In Vaccination Rates Across Socioeconomic Groups On The Size Of Measles Outbreaks, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Conference papers

Vaccination rates are often presented at the level of a country or region. However, within those areas there might be geographic or demographic pockets that have higher or lower vaccination rates. We use an agent-based model designed to simulate the spread of measles in Irish towns to examine if the effectiveness of vaccination rates to reduce disease at a population level is sensitive to the uniformity of vaccinations across socioeconomic groups. We find that when vaccinations are not applied evenly across socioeconomic groups we see more outbreaks and outbreaks with larger magnitudes.

Using A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model To Test School Closure Policies During A Measles Outbreak, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Background

In order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest …

A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Both agent-based models and equation-based models can be used to model the spread of an infectious disease. Equation-based models have been shown to capture the overall dynamics of a disease outbreak while agent-based models are able to capture heterogeneous characteristics of agents that drive the spread of an outbreak. However, agent-based models are computationally intensive. To capture the advantages of both the equation-based and agent-based models, we create a hybrid model where the disease component of the hybrid model switches between agent-based and equation-based. The switch is determined using the number of agents infected. We first test the model at …

Network Modeling The Impact Of Community-Based Male-Screening On The Chlamydia Trachomatis Prevalence In Women, Zhuolin Qu

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Impact Of Dogs With Deltamethrin-Impregnated Collars On Prevalence Of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Mondal H. Zahid

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Using Network Modeling To Understand The Relationship Between Sars-Cov-1 And Sars-Cov-2, Elizabeth Brooke Haywood, Nicole A. Bruce

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases In A Region, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town …

Predictive Modeling Of Influenza In New England Using A Recurrent Deep Neural Network, Alfred Amendolara

Theses

Predicting seasonal variation in influenza epidemics is an ongoing challenge. To better predict seasonal influenza and provide early warning of pandemics, a novel approach to Influenza-Like-Illness (ILI) prediction was developed. This approach combined a deep neural network with ILI, climate, and population data. A predictive model was created using a deep neural network based on TensorFlow 2.0 Beta. The model used Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) nodes. Data was collected from the Center for Disease Control, the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the United States Census Bureau. These parameters were temperature, precipitation, wind speed, population size, vaccination rate and …

Ebola: Impact Of Hospital's Admission Policy In An Overwhelmed Scenario, Mondal H. Zahid

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Decoys And Dilution: The Impact Of Incompetent Hosts On Prevalence Of Chagas Disease, Mondal H. Zahid

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Control Policies And Sensitivity Analysis In A Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Model: A Case Study In Cusco Region, Peru., Rocio M. Caja-Rivera, Ignacio Barradas

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

The Battle Against Malaria: A Teachable Moment, Randy K. Schwartz

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Malaria has been humanity’s worst public health problem throughout recorded history. Mathematical methods are needed to understand which factors are relevant to the disease and to develop counter-measures against it. This article and the accompanying exercises provide examples of those methods for use in lower- or upper-level courses dealing with probability, statistics, or population modeling. These can be used to illustrate such concepts as correlation, causation, conditional probability, and independence. The article explains how the apparent link between sickle cell trait and resistance to malaria was first verified in Uganda using the chi-squared probability distribution. It goes on to explain …

The Influence Of Temperature Variation On Dengue Fever: A Model-Based Investigation, Michael A. Robert, Paula D. Weber, Rebecca C. Christofferson, Christopher N. Mores, Helen J. Wearing

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Optimal Insecticide-Treated Bed-Net Coverage And Malaria Treatment In A Malaria-Hiv Co-Infection Model, Eric Numfor

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Mathematical Model Of The Spread Of Dengue Fever Incorporating Mobility, Kelly A. Reagan

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Can Including Time Delay In Epidemic Models Significantly Improve Predictions Concerning Intervention Strategies?, Adrienna N. Bingham, Leah Shaw

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.