Disease Modeling Commons^™

A Predictive Coding Account Of Spatial Working Memory Following Prophylactic Levetiracetam Administration Prior To Traumatic Brain Injury, Omeima Mutwali

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) symptom prevention and remediation is an important area of research that would benefit vulnerable groups, including active-duty and veteran soldiers. These patients can sustain penetrative forces in fields of combat or in training, which result in focal lesions that trigger inflammatory and degenerative processes in the brain. Both primary and secondary injuries are associated with changes to cognition, behavior and affective state. This disease poses increased risk of epileptogenesis, as well. Given these outcomes, prior research has evaluated levetiracetam (LEV) as a prophylactic treatment for seizures, cognitive deficits and negative emotionality. LEV acts as a presynaptic …

Stochastic Invasion And Extinction In Environmentally Transmitted Diseases, Mahmudul Bari Hridoy, Lauren M. Childs

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Novel Mathematical Model Of Oropouche Virus Transmission Dynamics, Darsh Gandhi, Carli Peterson, Emma Slack, Elizabeth Rubio, Amira Claxton, Christopher M. Kribs

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

The Impacts Of Metapopulation Structure On Infectious Disease Dynamics, Éowyn M. Poplawski, David Brown

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Assessing The Impact And Cost-Effectiveness Of Covid-19 Testing In Adult Social Care Homes In England, Siyu Chen

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Information Feedback Delays Within Epidemic Models And Their Effect On Model Dynamics., Maria K. Bouka, Christopher Strickland Dr

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Modeling An Infection Outbreak With Quarantine: The Sibkr Model, Mikenna Dew, Amanda Langosch, Theadora Baker-Wallerstein

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal

Influenza is a respiratory infection that places a substantial burden in the world population each year. In this project, we study and interpret a data set from a flu outbreak in a British boarding school in 1978 with mathematical modeling. First, we propose a generalization of the SIR model based on the quarantine measure in place and establish the long-time behavior of the model. By analyzing the model mathematically, we determine the analytic formulas of the basic reproduction number, the long-time limit of solutions, and the maximum number of infection population. Moreover, we estimate the parameters of the model based …

Impacts Of Climate Change On Vector-Borne Disease Burden In The United States: Exploring The Epidemiological Evidence, Leah V. Loetman

Honors Theses

Climate change models predict shifts in vector-borne diseases (VBDs) around the world, including in the United States. However, to my knowledge there has yet to be a comprehensive descriptive epidemiological study examining prevalence, geographic distribution, and trends for all tick- and mosquito-borne diseases in the United States. I compiled data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), which publishes yearly case numbers for 17 vector-borne diseases. However, these publications depend on a scattered framework of state regulations regarding disease reporting. I compiled data from the CDC to determine the current geographic distribution, prevalence, and trends of tick- and mosquito-borne …

Relative Efficacy Of Resource Constrained Forward And Backward Contact Tracing In An Open Population, Nicholas Roberts

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Marineepi: A Gui-Based Matlab Toolbox To Simulate Marine Pathogen Transmission, Gorka Bidegain, Tal Ben-Horin, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

The Graphical User Interface (GUI) MarineEpi is presented as a Matlab toolbox for easily (i) constructing disease transmission models for different marine host-pathogen systems, (ii) running simulations by specifying initial conditions and model parameters, and (iii) interpreting the resulting time series of the host and pathogen population dynamics. MarineEpi users can generate models for systems in which pathogen transmission occurs through contact with infected individuals (SI), contact with dead infected individuals (SID), contact with environmental pathogens released by infected individuals (SIP), and contact with environmental pathogens released by dead infected individuals (SIPD). MarineEpi is a freely available GUI that provides …

Species Data And Vector Modeling: Evaluating Datasets For Improved Models Of Ixodes Ricinus Tick Distribution In Europe Under A Changing Climate, Steven Jones

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

To increase capacity for monitoring and surveillance of tick-borne diseases, publicly available tick distribution and climate change datasets are required to create accurate predictive distribution models. It is difficult, however, to assess model accuracy and utility when using incomplete datasets.  The more recent development of comprehensive tick databases for Europe and availability of climate change scenarios from multiple IPCC Assessment Reports allows for improved modeling efforts. Multiple tick datasets were combined and three climate change projections were compared by predicting current and future distributions of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe using the MaxEnt species distribution model. Overall, much of Europe …

An Agent-Based Model Of Environmental Transmission Of Clostridioides Difficile In Healthcare Settings, Max Lewis, Laila Mahrat, Cara Sulyok, Brittany Stephenson

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

How Environmental Change Will Impact Mosquito-Borne Diseases, Arsal Khan

Master's Projects and Capstones

Mosquitos, the most lethal species throughout human history, are the most prevalent source of vector-borne diseases and therefore a major global health burden. Mosquito-borne disease incidence is expected to shift with environmental change. These changes can be predicted using species distribution models. With the wide variety of methods used for models, consensus for improving accuracy and comparability is needed. A comparative analysis of three recent modeling approaches revealed that integrating modeling techniques compensates for trade-offs associated with a singular approach. An area that represents a critical gap in our ability to predict mosquito behavior in response to changing climate factors, …

“Pandemias Políticas: The Effects Of Political And Social Instability On Infectious Disease Epidemiology In Latin America"”, Sarah H. Noonan

Senior Theses

This paper seeks to analyze the relationship between political and social unrest and conflict and infectious disease epidemiology in Latin America. An analysis of published literature regarding epidemiological, biomedical, political, and historical content was conducted to highlight potential connections between infectious disease epidemics and sociopolitical conflict in the region. Specific analyses of Smallpox, Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis, Chagas disease, Cholera, Dengue, and COVID-19 were conducted, in an effort to uncover potential causations and context of epidemics of these conditions. Results of this analysis depict a necessity for further research into public health and disease control mechanisms during times of conflict and …

Ecology Of Hantaviruses In Rodent Reservoirs And Their Early Innate Immune Responses In Human Model Systems, Evan Peter Williams

Theses and Dissertations (ETD)

The spillover of zoonotic RNA viruses is responsible for a great deal of the disease outbreaks in human populations. These spillover events are set to continue due to anthropogenic and environmental changes that impact the distribution of these viruses. The viruses in the family Hantaviridae are classified as one of these emerging zoonotic RNA viruses. The spillover of the viruses in this family are responsible for two severe human diseases, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS). These viruses are distributed across the globe and are responsible for a large number of human disease cases with …

Simulating Influenza Epidemics With Waning Vaccine Immunity, Chun-Miin Chen, Alia C. Stanciu

Faculty Journal Articles

In this study, we simulate an influenza epidemic that considers the effects of waning immunity by fitting epidemiological models to CDC secondary historical data aggregated on a weekly basis, and derive the transmission rates at which susceptible individuals become infected over the course of the influenza season. Using a system of differential equations, we define four groups of individuals in a population: susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered. We show that a larger number of initially infected individuals might not only bring the influenza season to an end sooner but also reduce the epidemic size. Moreover, any influenza virus that entails …

Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Due to the rise of COVID-19 cases, many mathematical models have been developed to study the disease dynamics of the virus. However, despite its role in the spread of COVID-19, many SEIR models neglect to account for human behavior. In this project, we develop a novel mathematical modeling framework for studying the impact of mixing patterns and social behavior on the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, we consider two groups, one exhibiting normal behavior who do not reduce their contacts and another exhibiting altered behavior who reduce their contacts by practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and self-isolation. The dynamics …

The Effects Of Differences In Vaccination Rates Across Socioeconomic Groups On The Size Of Measles Outbreaks, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Conference papers

Vaccination rates are often presented at the level of a country or region. However, within those areas there might be geographic or demographic pockets that have higher or lower vaccination rates. We use an agent-based model designed to simulate the spread of measles in Irish towns to examine if the effectiveness of vaccination rates to reduce disease at a population level is sensitive to the uniformity of vaccinations across socioeconomic groups. We find that when vaccinations are not applied evenly across socioeconomic groups we see more outbreaks and outbreaks with larger magnitudes.

Using A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model To Test School Closure Policies During A Measles Outbreak, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Background

In order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest …

Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

One of many risks facing HIV+ individuals is the development of kidney dysfunction and end stage kidney disease (ESKD). A differential equation-based mathematical model was developed to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the progression to kidney disease and on reducing mortality due to kidney failure. Analytical and numerical predictions of long-term HIV+ ESKD prevalence show that therapy can lead to either extremely low levels of disease prevalence or increased prevalence, depending on drug efficacy levels and mechanisms of action. Maintenance of HIV+ ESKD prevalence below one individual is possible with sufficient efficacy (e.g., 99%) against the progression from …

Use Of Lymesim 2.0 To Assess The Potential For Single And Integrated Management Methods To Control Blacklegged Ticks (Ixodes Scapularis; Acari: Ixodidae) And Transmission Of Lyme Disease Spirochetes, Shravani Chitineni, Elizabeth R. Gleim, Holly D. Gaff

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Annual Lyme disease cases continue to rise in the U.S. making it the most reported vector-borne illness in the country. The pathogen (Borrelia burgdorferi) and primary vector (Ixodes scapularis; blacklegged tick) dynamics of Lyme disease are complicated by the multitude of vertebrate hosts and varying environmental factors, making models an ideal tool for exploring disease dynamics in a time- and cost-effective way. In the current study, LYMESIM 2.0, a mechanistic model, was used to explore the effectiveness of three commonly used tick control methods: habitat-targeted acaricide (spraying), rodent-targeted acaricide (bait boxes), and white-tailed deer targeted acaricide (4-poster …

Applying Immuno-Epidemiology Principles To Violence, Anna H. Sisk, Nina H. Fefferman, Judy Day, Patricia Bamwine

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Analyzing The Control Measures For The Homeless Population And Quantifying Their Impact On The Covid-19 Epidemic In New York City, Steven Manns

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns, Risk Perception, And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Both agent-based models and equation-based models can be used to model the spread of an infectious disease. Equation-based models have been shown to capture the overall dynamics of a disease outbreak while agent-based models are able to capture heterogeneous characteristics of agents that drive the spread of an outbreak. However, agent-based models are computationally intensive. To capture the advantages of both the equation-based and agent-based models, we create a hybrid model where the disease component of the hybrid model switches between agent-based and equation-based. The switch is determined using the number of agents infected. We first test the model at …

The Covid-19 Pandemic And The Power Of Numbers, Jessica Ancker

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced a deluge of news coverage of quantitative concepts. In this viewpoint, we provide examples of effective and poor quantitative communication by the professional news media as well as social media communicators. Effective examples include a number of online animations and engaging interactive simulations. Examples of poor quantitative communication include the widespread reporting of raw numbers rather than rates, failing to address uncertainty, not providing sufficient context for numbers, and not discussing the implications of false negative and false positive diagnostic test results. Educators can draw from this body of news to develop compelling quantitative literacy …

Impact Of Dogs With Deltamethrin-Impregnated Collars On Prevalence Of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Mondal H. Zahid

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Applying Modern Immunology To The Plague Of Ancient Athens, Juhi C. Patel

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

During the 5^th century BCE, ancient Athens and Sparta were involved in a major war during which an epidemic disease broke out in Athens, claiming the lives of a substantial part of the population. Although the ancient Greek historian Thucydides provides a first-hand account of the symptoms of the plague, modern historians have not been able to definitively identify the pathogen that caused the deadly epidemic. In 1994, a burial tomb of Athens was unearthed that unveiled the likely remains of plague victims. In 2005, scientists conducted molecular testing on the dental remains and used suicide PCR to compare …

A Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases In A Region, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town …

484— Modeling Social Distancing Methods And Their Effectiveness In Combating The Spread Of Ebola, Rachel Fair

GREAT Day Posters

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a rare but severe disease that is transmitted among humans through direct-contact with, and close proximity to, infected bodily fluids. From 2014-16, West Africa experienced the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded, infecting over 28,000 people, and killing over 11,000. Although the symptoms of EVD are treatable, the disease can be extremely deadly, with an average of 50% EVD cases resulting in fatality. In areas where healthcare is scarce and vaccinations are not readily available, the practices of social distancing and self-quarantining have been shown to be highly effective in combating the spread of EVD. To …