Disease Modeling Commons^™

A Mathematical Model For Managing Diphtheria Outbreaks In Nigeria Via Vaccination, Enhanced Surveillance, Effective Quarantine, And Social Distancing Measures, Hycienth Ortser Orapine, Nyiutya Cephas Ine, Dekera Jacob Washachi, Ali Audu Baidu, Lubem Matthew Kwaghkor

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

Diphtheria is a highly infectious respiratory and skin disease that poses a significant threat to global public health. In Nigeria, children and adults with low immunity remain at high risk due to recurring annual outbreaks in the last decade, with a death rate of as high as 68.8\%. This paper presents a deterministic compartmental model to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions implemented by the Nigerian government. The model's mathematical and epidemiological validity is established through proofs of non-negativity and boundedness. The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is derived, and stability analysis confirms that the diphtheria-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically …

Tumor–Immune Dynamics With Memory And Time Delay: A Fractional-Order Model With Ctla-4 Regulation, Mutaz Mohammad, Mohyeedden Sweidan, Alexander Trounev, Fathalla Rihan

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

This study develops a fractional-order tumor-immune interaction model incorporating Caputo memory effects, delayed immune activation, and CTLA-4 checkpoint regulation. The model describes the coupled dynamics of tumor cells, CD4$^{+}$ T cells, IFN-$\gamma$, and CTLA-4, and extends classical integer-order tumor-immune models by accounting for hereditary immune responses and biologically motivated latency effects. Theoretical properties, including positivity, boundedness, equilibrium structure, and fractional-order stability, are examined to establish the biological and mathematical consistency of the model. The delayed fractional system is then investigated computationally by comparing several numerical methods, including finite difference discretization, Daubechies wavelet collocation, Euler wavelet collocation, and a predictor-corrector scheme. …

Stochastic Invasion And Extinction In Environmentally Transmitted Diseases, Mahmudul Bari Hridoy, Lauren M. Childs

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Mechanistic Model Of Adhesion, Inflammation, Sleep, And Pain In Sickle Cell Patients, Milan Marsh, Rebecca Segal

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Novel Mathematical Model Of Hiv Transmission Incorporating The Effects Of Treatment And Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis: Sensitivity Analysis And Numerical Simulations, Erick Manuel Delgado Moya

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) continues to be a public health problem in many countries of the world, and Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a preventive method for HIV, which has shown great efficacy and is in use worldwide. This work presents a new mathematical model for HIV transmission incorporating PrEP use and evaluates the impact of PrEP along with its increasing use in a population. The construction of the model takes into account three forms of diagnosis: diagnosis of individuals in risky sexual contact, diagnosis after risky contact (diagnosis in the undiagnosed infected compartment), and diagnosis associated with attempting to enter …

A Novel Mathematical Model Of Oropouche Virus Transmission Dynamics, Darsh Gandhi, Carli Peterson, Emma Slack, Elizabeth Rubio, Amira Claxton, Christopher M. Kribs

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

[Lele] Measles And Mandates– What Will Happen If Florida Repeals The Mmr Vaccine Mandate?, Alice Oveson, Abba Gumel

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Heterogeneity In Malaria: A Pk-Pd Immuno-Epidemiology Model With Non-Exponential Waiting Times, Katharine Gurski

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Parameter Estimation And Simulation In Pollution-Induced Asthma Disease Model Using Physics-Informed Neural Networks, Aadi Gannavaram

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Modeling Sickle Cell Disease Using A Sleep-Pain-Inflammation Cycle, Milan Marsh

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

A Modified Sir Model Used To Investigate The Relationship Between Congenital And Adult Syphilis, Kaleesta R. Waysman

Honors Thesis

A complex SIR model integrating the relationship between adult and congenital syphilis was developed. The goal of the project was to determine the specific population(s) or control strategies that should be enforced, altered, or removed to decrease the number of children experiencing clinical sequelae due to congenital syphilis. Early clinical sequelae include hydrops fetalis, preterm birth, central nervous system infection, hepatosplenomegaly, hyperbilirubinemia, cholestasis, hemolytic anemia, snuffles, osteochondritis, and lesions or rashes in the palms and soles. Late clinical sequelae include interstitial keratitis, hearing loss, Hutchinson teeth, saber shins, Clutton joints, mulberry molars, and saddle nose. After implementing real-world data into …

Estimating Per-Infection Cost And Burden For Dengue And Zika As A Function Of Antibody-Dependent Enhancement, Christopher M. Kribs

Mathematics Faculty Publications - Archive

The complex immune interactions produced by the tetravalent dengue vaccine Dengvaxia have foregrounded the important role of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in dengue infection. Some evidence exists that ADE may extend beyond the four dengue serotypes to Zika, a closely related flavivirus transmitted by the same mosquito species as dengue, and may also account for the increased severity of some cases. Estimates of the public health impact of dengue vaccination may then need to include its effects on the transmission of Zika in addition to dengue. This study gathers primary references to build estimates of per-case economic cost and disease burden …

Mathematical Modelling Of Disease Outbreak, Favour Christian, Matthew Molloy

SURE Journal: Science Undergraduate Research Experience Journal

Establishing a model framework for more research necessitates a thorough understanding of the causes, distribution, prevalence, and evolution of infectious illnesses. The main mathematical concept used in this modelling simulation is ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The purpose of this study was to investigate the significance of the many criteria linked to a zombie virus spread. The zombie framework provides an accessible and relatively simple representation of the nature of infectious disease spread, allowing for tractable assumptions and the development of more complex situations.

The models are designed around a zombie outbreak in which the zombie virus is spread through a …

Early Ctdna Kinetics As A Dynamic Biomarker Of Cancer Treatment Response, Aaron Li, Emil Lou, Kevin Leder, Jasmine Foo

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Modeling Fast Information And Slow(Er) Disease Spreading: A Geometric Analysis, Iulia Martina Bulai, Mattia Sensi, Sara Sottile

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Information Feedback Delays Within Epidemic Models And Their Effect On Model Dynamics., Maria K. Bouka, Christopher Strickland Dr

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Modeling An Infection Outbreak With Quarantine: The Sibkr Model, Mikenna Dew, Amanda Langosch, Theadora Baker-Wallerstein

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal

Influenza is a respiratory infection that places a substantial burden in the world population each year. In this project, we study and interpret a data set from a flu outbreak in a British boarding school in 1978 with mathematical modeling. First, we propose a generalization of the SIR model based on the quarantine measure in place and establish the long-time behavior of the model. By analyzing the model mathematically, we determine the analytic formulas of the basic reproduction number, the long-time limit of solutions, and the maximum number of infection population. Moreover, we estimate the parameters of the model based …

A Tale Of Two Viruses: Why Smallpox Was Eradicated And Polio Persists, Katherine G. Mcgough, Erin N. Bodine

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

The smallpox and poliomyelitis (polio) viruses were, at a time, one of the largest threats to global public health killing millions until global eradication campaigns were put into effect. Vaccination led to the eradication of smallpox and the elimination of polio for most of the world. However, polio continues to persist at endemic levels in Pakistan and Afghanistan. We developed ODE models of smallpox and polio to explore differences in transmission dynamics and determine if the underlying biology has made poliomyelitis more difficult to eradicate. Our model analysis shows there are multiple factors which should allow polio to have a …

An Ode Model For Investigating The Sleep-Pain Relationship In Sickle Cell Disease, Quindel Jones, Angela Reynolds, Rebecca Segal, Reginald Mcgee

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks For Agent-Based Epidemiological Model Calibration, Alvan C. Arulandu, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Relative Efficacy Of Resource Constrained Forward And Backward Contact Tracing In An Open Population, Nicholas Roberts

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Modeling Immune System Dynamics During Hiv Infection And Treatment With Differential Equations, Nicole Rychagov

CODEE Journal

An inquiry-based project that discusses immune system dynamics during HIV infection using differential equations is presented. The complex interactions between healthy T-cells, latently infected T-cells, actively infected T-cells, and the HIV virus are modeled using four nonlinear differential equations. The model is adapted to simulate long term HIV dynamics, including the AIDS state, and is used to simulate the long term effects of the traditional antiretroviral therapy (ART). The model is also used to test viral rebound over time of combined application of ART and a new drug that blocks the reactivation of the viral genome in the infected cells …

Physics-Informed Neural Networks For Informed Vaccine Distribution In Heterogeneously Mixed Populations, Alvan Arulandu, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Humanizing Mathematical Biology Research And Education, Carrie Diaz Eaton, Ognyan Simeonov

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Vaccine Misinformation On Disease Spread, Anthony Delegge, Yina Wang

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Stochastic Models Of Zoonotic Avian Influenza With Multiple Hosts, Environmental Transmission, And Migration In The Natural Reservoir, Kaia Smith

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Modeling The Effects Of Media Awareness On Sars-Cov-2 Transmission In Georgia, Eric Numfor

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

An Agent-Based Model Of Covid-19 Transmission At Lewis University, Austin Kind, Brittany Stephenson Phd

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Prep Uptake And Adherence On The Spread Of Hiv In The Presence Of Casual And Long-Term Partnerships, Sylvia J. Gutowska, Katharine Gurski, Kathleen Hoffman

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

An Application Of Differential Mathematical Modeling Techniques To Study The Ongoing Rabies Epizootic In China, Christopher Turner

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Rabies remains a global public health issue with a wide variety of neurological symptoms such as confusion, slight paralysis, hypersalivation, and hydrophobia. Rabies is usually fatal once symptoms appear. Many species are reservoirs for rabies, such as foxes, racoons, and wild dogs, which in turn can transmit the disease to humans, leading to complex transmission chains. There is a long latent period of rabies, between 1 to 3 months after infection, which further complicates control efforts. Mathematical modeling is a valuable tool in the study of infectious disease outbreaks and there have been many models applied to rabies outbreaks. However, …