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System Dynamics Modeling Of Medical Use, Nonmedical Use And Diversion Of Prescription Opioid Analgesics, Wayne W. Wakeland, Teresa D. Schmidt, J. David Haddox
System Dynamics Modeling Of Medical Use, Nonmedical Use And Diversion Of Prescription Opioid Analgesics, Wayne W. Wakeland, Teresa D. Schmidt, J. David Haddox
Wayne W. Wakeland
A dramatic rise in the nonmedical of pharmaceutical opioids has presented the United States with a substantial public health problem. Nonmedical use of prescription pain relievers has become increasingly prevalent in the US over the last two decades, and diversion of medicines obtained by prescription is assumed to be a major source of supply for nonmedical opioid use. Policymakers striving to protect population health by ameliorating the adverse outcomes of nonmedical use of opioid analgesics could benefit from a systems-level model which reflects the complexity of the system and incorporates the full range of available data. To address this need, …
System Dynamics Modeling Of Medical Use, Nonmedical Use And Diversion Of Prescription Opioid Analgesics, Wayne Wakeland, Alexandra Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt
System Dynamics Modeling Of Medical Use, Nonmedical Use And Diversion Of Prescription Opioid Analgesics, Wayne Wakeland, Alexandra Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt
Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
The objective of the study was to develop a system dynamics model of the medical use of pharmaceutical opioids to treat pain, and the associated diversion and nonmedical use of these drugs. The model was used to test the impact of simulated interventions in this complex system. The study relied on secondary data obtained from the literature and from other public sources for the period 1995 to 2008. In addition, an expert panel provided recommendations regarding model parameters and model structure. The behavior of the resulting systems level model compared favorably with reference behavior data (R2=.95). After the base model …