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Technological University Dublin

2020

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Articles 91 - 114 of 114

Full-Text Articles in Medicine and Health Sciences

Espad 2019 Ireland: Results From The European Schools Project On Alcohol And Other Drugs In Ireland, Salome Sunday, Sheila Keogan, Joan Hanafin, Luke Clancy Jan 2020

Espad 2019 Ireland: Results From The European Schools Project On Alcohol And Other Drugs In Ireland, Salome Sunday, Sheila Keogan, Joan Hanafin, Luke Clancy

Books / book chapters

The ESPAD Ireland 2019 Report is the seventh Irish data-collection wave of the European Schools Project for Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD) carried out in Ireland.Data included in the sample reported here and submitted to ESPAD Europe consists of survey results from 1967 students born in 2003, who were 15-16 years old at the time of the survey which was performed in a sample of Irish schools from March to June 2019. These serial data sets enable us to monitor trends in alcohol, tobacco, gaming, internet usage as well as a number of other behaviors including illicit drug usage such …


The Use Of Small-Sided Games As An Aerobic Fitness Assessment Supplement Within Elite Level Professional Soccer, Adam Lee Owen, Matthew Newton, Aidan Shovlin, Shane Malone Jan 2020

The Use Of Small-Sided Games As An Aerobic Fitness Assessment Supplement Within Elite Level Professional Soccer, Adam Lee Owen, Matthew Newton, Aidan Shovlin, Shane Malone

Articles

The purpose of this investigation was to quantify the association between 5 vs. 5 small sided games (SSG) running performance and physiological performance during the Yo-YoIR1 test to ascertain the utility of SSGs as a potential fitness test modality within elite professional soccer players. Twenty-three (n = 23) elite male professional soccer players (mean ± SD age 25.3 ± 3.1 yrs, mass: 76 ± 9 kg, height: 176 ± 9 cm) were assessed. Players completed an intermittent aerobic fitness test (Yo-YoIR1) and a 5 vs. 5 SSGs protocol for the purpose of the study. During all SSGs players wore GPS …


The Performance Effect Of Scheduled Carbohydrate And Caffeine Intake During Simulated Team Sport Match-Play, John Keane, Aidan Shovlin, Simon Devenney, Shane Malone, Damien Young, Giuseppe Coratella, Kieran Collins, Marcus Shortall Jan 2020

The Performance Effect Of Scheduled Carbohydrate And Caffeine Intake During Simulated Team Sport Match-Play, John Keane, Aidan Shovlin, Simon Devenney, Shane Malone, Damien Young, Giuseppe Coratella, Kieran Collins, Marcus Shortall

Articles

The aim of the current investigation was to identify the effects of scheduled carbohydrate (CHO) and caffeine (CAF) supplementation on simulated team sport match-play performance. Ten male hurling players completed three hurling match-play simulation protocols (HSP) performed 7 days apart in a double-blind, randomized design. Supplementation included CHO, CHO + CAF, and placebo (PLA). In a randomized order, participants ingested either a 6% CHO solution, a PLA solution of similar taste, or a combined intake of 6% CHO solution + 200 mg CAF capsule. At specific time points (Pre-0 min; half time (HT)-30 min; full time (FT)-60 min), participants completed …


Association Between Eccentric Knee Flexor Strength And Hamstring Injury Risk In 185 Elite Gaelic Football Players, Mark Roe, Eamonn Delahunt, Malachy Mchugh, Conor Gissane, Shane Malone, Kieran Collins, Catherine Blake Jan 2020

Association Between Eccentric Knee Flexor Strength And Hamstring Injury Risk In 185 Elite Gaelic Football Players, Mark Roe, Eamonn Delahunt, Malachy Mchugh, Conor Gissane, Shane Malone, Kieran Collins, Catherine Blake

Articles

Hamstring strains are the most common time-loss injury in elite Gaelic football affecting over 20% of players per season. Thus, there is a need to identify factors contributing to the onset of hamstring injuries in order to inform injury risk management strategies. The current study investigated whether eccentric knee flexor strength and between-limb imbalances were associated with increased risk of sustaining a timeloss hamstring injury in elite Gaelic football players. A total of 185 elite male players (26.9 ± 2.7 years, 86.4 ± 6.2 kg, 183.4 ± 5.6) were prospectively followed for 12 weeks from the day of testing. Injury …


A Review Of The Influence Of Fathers On Children's Eating Behaviours And Dietary Intake, Stephanie Rahill, Aileen Kennedy, John Kearney Jan 2020

A Review Of The Influence Of Fathers On Children's Eating Behaviours And Dietary Intake, Stephanie Rahill, Aileen Kennedy, John Kearney

Articles

The role of fathers in child rearing has changed in recent years due to an increase in maternal employment. Despite this, the majority of research has focused on maternal influences and behaviours in relation to child feeding. Therefore, the aims of the narrative review were: 1) to examine the role and responsibility of fathers in child feeding and the factors associated with paternal responsibility in child feeding; 2) to establish how paternal modelling, paternal diets, and paternal feeding practices relate to children's eating behaviours and dietary intake; and 3) to explore the role of maternal perceptions on paternal feeding roles, …


Reflections In Systemic Family Psychotherapy And Adult Mental Health Services In The South East Of Ireland; And Beyond., Sean Edward Boland, Annette Byrne, Caroline Kavanagh, Sean O'Neill, Catherine Mahon, Kate Doran, Wille Hackett Jan 2020

Reflections In Systemic Family Psychotherapy And Adult Mental Health Services In The South East Of Ireland; And Beyond., Sean Edward Boland, Annette Byrne, Caroline Kavanagh, Sean O'Neill, Catherine Mahon, Kate Doran, Wille Hackett

Staff Articles and Research Papers

Systemic Family Psychotherapy (SFP) has been involved in the Carlow Kilkenny South Tipperary Adult Mental Services since 1994: in the main this involved meeting with service users, their families, couples and friends. However, from 2012 to 2019 five SFPs retired. This occurred when decisions were made by some Mental Health Management not to replace those SFPs that retired: thereby reducing the number of SFPs in the Southeast Adult Mental Health Services (AMHS); presumably due to funding difficulties at that time. However, as the months and years went by it became oblivious that two AMHSs were not going to employ SPTs. …


Cognitive Performance In Midlife Type 2 Diabetes: Results Form The Enbind Study, A. H. Dyer, L. Mckenna, G. Gamage, N. M. Bourke, Isabelle Killane, M. Widdowson, C. P. Woods, J. Gibney, R. Reilly, D. O'Neill, S. P. Kennelly Jan 2020

Cognitive Performance In Midlife Type 2 Diabetes: Results Form The Enbind Study, A. H. Dyer, L. Mckenna, G. Gamage, N. M. Bourke, Isabelle Killane, M. Widdowson, C. P. Woods, J. Gibney, R. Reilly, D. O'Neill, S. P. Kennelly

Articles

Aims: To establish the impact of uncomplicated type 2 diabetes on cognitive and neuropsychological performance in midlife. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study of middle-aged adults with uncomplicated type 2 diabetes and a cohort of healthy control participants. General cognition was assessed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment test and neuropsychological assessment was undertaken using a detailed neuropsychological assessment battery. Results: A total of 152 participants (102 with type 2 diabetes and 50 controls) were recruited (mean age 52 ± 8 years, 51% women). Participants with midlife type 2 diabetes were more than twice as likely to make an error on …


The Effect Of Atmospheric Cold Plasma Treatment On The Antigenic Properties Of Bovine Milk Casein And Whey Proteins, Sing Wei Ng, Peng Lu, Aleksandra Rulikowska, Daniela Boehm, Graham O'Neill, Paula Bourke Jan 2020

The Effect Of Atmospheric Cold Plasma Treatment On The Antigenic Properties Of Bovine Milk Casein And Whey Proteins, Sing Wei Ng, Peng Lu, Aleksandra Rulikowska, Daniela Boehm, Graham O'Neill, Paula Bourke

Articles

Casein, β-lactoglobulin and α-lactalbumin are major milk protein allergens. In the present study, the structural modifications and antigenic response of these bovine milk allergens as induced by non-thermal treatment by atmospheric cold plasma were investigated. Spark discharge (SD) and glow discharge (GD), as previously characterized cold plasma systems, were used for protein treatments. Casein, β-lactoglobulin and α-lactalbumin were analyzed before and after plasma treatment using SDS-PAGE, FTIR, UPLC-MS/MS and ELISA. SDS-PAGE results revealed a reduction in the casein and α-lactalbumin intensity bands after SD or GD treatments; however, the β-lactoglobulin intensity band remained unchanged. FTIR studies revealed alterations in protein …


Effect Of Cold Plasma On Meat Cholesterol And Lipid Oxidation, Juan M. Pérez-Andrés, Janna Cropotova Janna Cropotova, Sabine M. Harrison, Nigel P. Brunton, Patrick J. Cullen, Turid Rustad, Brijesh K. Tiwari Jan 2020

Effect Of Cold Plasma On Meat Cholesterol And Lipid Oxidation, Juan M. Pérez-Andrés, Janna Cropotova Janna Cropotova, Sabine M. Harrison, Nigel P. Brunton, Patrick J. Cullen, Turid Rustad, Brijesh K. Tiwari

Articles

Cold atmospheric plasma (CAP) is a novel non-thermal technology with potential applications in inactivating microorganisms in food products. However, its impact on food quality is not yet fully understood. The aim of this research is to study the impact of in-package plasma technology on the stability of cholesterol and total lipid in four different types of meat (beef, pork, lamb and chicken breast). Additionally, any changes in the primary or secondary lipid oxidation, which is undesirable from a health perspective, is investigated. CAP was not found to have any impact on the cholesterol or lipid content. However, higher peroxide and …


Editorial: Human-Nature Interactions: Perspectives On Conceptual And Methodological Issues, Tadhg Macintyre, Jürgen Beckmann, Giovanna Calogiuri, Aoife Donnelly, Marc Jones, Christopher R. Madan, Noel Brick, Christopher Gidlow, Mike Rogerson, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen Jan 2020

Editorial: Human-Nature Interactions: Perspectives On Conceptual And Methodological Issues, Tadhg Macintyre, Jürgen Beckmann, Giovanna Calogiuri, Aoife Donnelly, Marc Jones, Christopher R. Madan, Noel Brick, Christopher Gidlow, Mike Rogerson, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen

Articles

Urban agglomerations expose citizens to ever-increasing risks from heat, air pollution, noise stress, and reduced nature connectedness. Concurrently, accumulating evidence suggests various health benefits by exposure to urban natural spaces (World Health Organization, 2016a; Bratman et al., 2019). Existing research suggests an array of benefits of contact with nature which are linked to physical activity (e.g., green exercise), active travel, and residential proximity to greenspace. Psychological benefits appear to be related to mood, well-being, attention and pro-environmental behavior; physiological benefits have been described in terms of increased physical activity, improved cardiovascular parameters, reduced stress hormones, and enhanced immune resources (Bowler …


Late Pregnancy Vitamin D Deficiency Is Associated With Doubled Odds Of Birth Asphyxia And Emergency Caesarean Section: A Prospective Cohort Study, Hanna Augustin Olausson, Sinead Mulcahy, Inez Schoenmakers,, Maria Bullarbo, Anna Glantz, Anna Winkvist, Linnea Bärebring Jan 2020

Late Pregnancy Vitamin D Deficiency Is Associated With Doubled Odds Of Birth Asphyxia And Emergency Caesarean Section: A Prospective Cohort Study, Hanna Augustin Olausson, Sinead Mulcahy, Inez Schoenmakers,, Maria Bullarbo, Anna Glantz, Anna Winkvist, Linnea Bärebring

Articles

The aim of this prospective cohort study was to investigate the associations between maternal vitamin D status in late pregnancy and emergency caesarean section (EMCS) and birth asphyxia, in a population based sample of women in Sweden.


Macular Pigment Optical Density Fluctuation As A Function Of Pupillary Mydriasis: Methodological Considerations For Dual-Wavelength Autofluorescence, Ekaterina Loskutova, John Butler, Gabriela Hernandez-Martinez, Daniel Ian Flitcroft, James Loughman Jan 2020

Macular Pigment Optical Density Fluctuation As A Function Of Pupillary Mydriasis: Methodological Considerations For Dual-Wavelength Autofluorescence, Ekaterina Loskutova, John Butler, Gabriela Hernandez-Martinez, Daniel Ian Flitcroft, James Loughman

Articles

Macular pigment (MP), comprising the dietary carotenoids lutein, zeaxanthin and meso-zeaxanthin, is believed to benefit eye health and vision. Numerous clinical and research devices and techniques are currently available to facilitate MP optical density (MPOD) measurement. One of those techniques, dual-wavelength fundus autofluorescence (AF) is being increasingly used for measurement of MP in the eye. There is substantial methodological variation across the published studies that have employed this technique, including in relation to the use of mydriasis, the possible influence of which does not appear to have been addressed in the literature. This prospective cross-sectional study was designed to investigate …


Smartphone Use As A Possible Risk Factor For Myopia, Saoirse Mccrann, James Loughman, John Butler, Nabin Paudel, Daniel Ian Flitcroft Jan 2020

Smartphone Use As A Possible Risk Factor For Myopia, Saoirse Mccrann, James Loughman, John Butler, Nabin Paudel, Daniel Ian Flitcroft

Articles

Clinical Relevance

This study demonstrates an association between myopia and smartphone data usage. Youths now spend more time participating in near tasks as a result of smartphone usage. This poses an additional risk factor for myopia development/progression and is an important research question in relation to potential myopia management strategies.

Background

Children are now exposed to another possible environmental risk factor for myopia-smartphones. This study investigates the amount of time students spend on their smartphones and their pattern of smartphone usage from a myopia perspective.

Methods

Primary, secondary and third-level students completed a questionnaire exploring patterns of smartphone usage and …


An Investigation Into The Application Of Raman Spectroscopy For Cervical Cancer Screening, Damien Traynor Jan 2020

An Investigation Into The Application Of Raman Spectroscopy For Cervical Cancer Screening, Damien Traynor

Doctoral

aman spectroscopy is a powerful tool that has the potential to be, used for cervical cancer screening. It is a label-free, low-cost method providing a biochemical fingerprint of a given sample. The objective of this thesis was to address issues associated with the application of Raman spectroscopy for cervical cancer screening and to demonstrate the potential for triage of HPV positive cases. The first study investigated hormonal effects due to the menstrual cycle, the use of hormone- based contraceptives (HC) and the onset of menopause on Raman spectra of cervical cells and determined if these changes would affect the ability …


Modulation Of Medical Condition Likelihood By Patient History Similarity, Jonathan Turner, Dympna O'Sullivan, Jon Bird Jan 2020

Modulation Of Medical Condition Likelihood By Patient History Similarity, Jonathan Turner, Dympna O'Sullivan, Jon Bird

Articles

Introduction: We describe an analysis that modulates the simple population prevalence derived likelihood of a particular condition occurring in an individual by matching the individual with other individuals with similar clinical histories and determining the prevalence of the condition within the matched group.

Methods: We have taken clinical event codes and dates from anonymised longitudinal primary care records for 25,979 patients with 749,053 recorded clinical events. Using a nearest neighbour approach, for each patient, the likelihood of a condition occurring was adjusted from the population prevalence to the prevalence of the condition within those patients with the closest …


Introducing A Model And A Framework To Unify The Pharmaceutical Quality System Enablers Quality Risk Management & Knowledge Management, Martin J. Lipa, Kevin O'Donnell, Anne Greene Jan 2020

Introducing A Model And A Framework To Unify The Pharmaceutical Quality System Enablers Quality Risk Management & Knowledge Management, Martin J. Lipa, Kevin O'Donnell, Anne Greene

Articles

An organization that effectively manages knowledge should be able to recognize and proactively apply new learnings to better anticipate risks. This is particularly important in the manufacture of medicinal products. Since the publication of ICH Q10 in 2010, Quality Risk Management (QRM) and Knowledge Management (KM) have been positioned as co-enablers to the Pharmaceutical Quality System. The authors of this paper present a Knowledge Management process model to foster greater practical understanding of the practice of knowledge management. This model when joined with the familiar ICH Q9 process model for QRM, should enable a company to better manage their knowledge …


Direct Plasma Deposition Of Collagen On 96-Well Polystyrene Plates For Cell Culture, Denis O'Suillivan, Liam O'Neill, Paula Bourke Jan 2020

Direct Plasma Deposition Of Collagen On 96-Well Polystyrene Plates For Cell Culture, Denis O'Suillivan, Liam O'Neill, Paula Bourke

Articles

A cold atmospheric plasma unit was used to deposit a biologic, in this case collagen, onto a surface. A collagen coating was applied to 96-well polystyrene plates at a range of powers to determine the effects of the plasma power on the coating structure and viability. Plasma characterization was carried out using voltage, current, and power measurements. Coating characterization was completed using gravimetric measurement, cell growth, water contact angle, as well as spectroscopic analysis and compared to commercial collagen-coated plates. Cell culture studies were also undertaken. The plasma coating matched the performance of the commercial plate but dramatically reduced production …


Design, Synthesis, And Biological Evaluation Of Aryl Piperazines With Potential As Antidiabetic Agents Via The Stimulation Of Glucose Uptake And Inhibition Of Nadh:Ubiquinone Oxidoreductase, R. Devine, M. Kelada, S. Leonard, D.S.D. Martin, J.M.D. Walsh, C.J. Breen, R.B. Driver, Gemma K. Kinsella, J.B.C Findlay, J.C. Stephens Jan 2020

Design, Synthesis, And Biological Evaluation Of Aryl Piperazines With Potential As Antidiabetic Agents Via The Stimulation Of Glucose Uptake And Inhibition Of Nadh:Ubiquinone Oxidoreductase, R. Devine, M. Kelada, S. Leonard, D.S.D. Martin, J.M.D. Walsh, C.J. Breen, R.B. Driver, Gemma K. Kinsella, J.B.C Findlay, J.C. Stephens

Articles

The management of blood glucose levels and the avoidance of diabetic hyperglycemia are common objectives of many therapies in the treatment of diabetes. An aryl piperazine compound 3a (RTC1) has been described as a promoter of glucose uptake, in part through a cellular mechanism that involves inhibition of NADH:ubiquinone oxidoreductase. We report herein the synthesis of 41 derivatives of 3a (RTC1) and a systematic structure-activity-relationship study where a number of compounds were shown to effectively stimulate glucose uptake in vitro and inhibit NADH:ubiquinone oxidoreductase. The hit compound 3a (RTC1) remained the most efficacious with a 2.57 fold increase in glucose …


Safety Evaluation Of Plasma-Treated Lettuce Broth Using In Vitro And In Vivo Toxicity Models, Caitlin Heslin, Daniela Boehm, Brendan F. Gilmore, Julianne Megaw, Paula Bourke Jan 2020

Safety Evaluation Of Plasma-Treated Lettuce Broth Using In Vitro And In Vivo Toxicity Models, Caitlin Heslin, Daniela Boehm, Brendan F. Gilmore, Julianne Megaw, Paula Bourke

Articles

Cold atmospheric plasma is a promising new non-thermal technology for improving the microbiological safety and shelf-life of food products, particularly fresh produce and minimally processed fruit and vegetables. Limited research has been conducted on the safety of plasma-treated foods for human or animal consumption. This study focuses on basic safety studies by investigating lettuce broth treated with a di-electric barrier discharge plasma device as a fresh produce model in terms of in vitro cytotoxic and mutagenic effects on mammalian cells and its in vivo toxicity on Galleria mellonella larvae. Low cytotoxic effects were detected in vitro and mutagenic events were …


Adaptive Background Correction Of Crystal Image Datasets: Towards Automated Process Control, Luke Kiernan, Ian Jones, Lauri Kurki, Patrick J. Cullen, Toufic El Arnaout Jan 2020

Adaptive Background Correction Of Crystal Image Datasets: Towards Automated Process Control, Luke Kiernan, Ian Jones, Lauri Kurki, Patrick J. Cullen, Toufic El Arnaout

Articles

Improving the data descriptor calculation of crystal’s physical properties requires sophisticated imaging techniques and algorithms. It has been possible to construct 2D population balance models benefiting from characteristic measurements of both crystal’s length and width, compared to the single representative sizes used in 1D models. Our aim is to ameliorate the procedure of determining shape (and not only size) factors, in an automated fashion and directly from the process, for implementation in future models. Here, approaches suitable for real-time applications were employed including engineered imaging sensors and adaptive algorithms. We described the latter in detail for varying 2D image datasets. …


Mast Cell Stabilisers, Tao Zhang, Deirdre Frances Finn, James William Barlow, John Jarlath Walsh Jan 2020

Mast Cell Stabilisers, Tao Zhang, Deirdre Frances Finn, James William Barlow, John Jarlath Walsh

Articles

Mast cells play a critical role in type 1 hypersensitivity reactions. Indeed, mast cell mediators are implicated in many different conditions including allergic rhinitis, conjunctivitis, asthma, psoriasis, mastocytosis and the progression of many different cancers. Thus, there is intense interest in the development of agents which prevent mast cell mediator release or which inhibit the actions of such mediators once released into the environment of the cell. Much progress into the design of new agents has been made since the initial discovery of the mast cell stabilising properties of khellin from Ammi visnaga and the clinical approval of cromolyn sodium. …


Antidiabetic Activities Of An Lc/Ms Fingerprinted Aqueous Extract Of Fagonia Cretica L. In Preclinical Models, Imran Nazir, Nisar Ur Rahman, Zunaira Alvi, M. Hafizur Rahman, Jandirk Jandirk Sendker, Tao Zhang, Neil Frankish, Helen Sheridan Jan 2020

Antidiabetic Activities Of An Lc/Ms Fingerprinted Aqueous Extract Of Fagonia Cretica L. In Preclinical Models, Imran Nazir, Nisar Ur Rahman, Zunaira Alvi, M. Hafizur Rahman, Jandirk Jandirk Sendker, Tao Zhang, Neil Frankish, Helen Sheridan

Articles

Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease and one of the most important public health challenges facing mankind. Fagonia cretica is a medicinal plant used widely in the Punjab in Pakistan. A recent survey has demonstrated that traditional healers and herbalists frequently use this plant to treat diabetes. In the current study, the traditional medicine was prepared as a tea, and the profile of the main metabolites present in the traditional medicine was analysed via LC/MS/MS. The extract was shown to contain a number of phenolic glycosides including quercetin-3-O-rutinoside, kaempferol-3-O-rutinoside, kaempferol-3-O-glycoside, kaempferol-3(6′-malonylglucoside), isorhamnetin-3-O-rutinoside, and isorhamnetin 3-(6″-malonylglucoside) in addition to two unidentified …


Driver Persistence, Safety And Older Adult Self-Efficacy: Addressing Driving Challenges Using Innovative Multimodal Communication Concepts, Joan Cahill, Katie Crowley, Sam Cromie, Alison Kay, Michael Gormley, Eamonn Kenny, Sonja Hermann, Ciaran Doyle, Ann Hever, Robert J. Ross Jan 2020

Driver Persistence, Safety And Older Adult Self-Efficacy: Addressing Driving Challenges Using Innovative Multimodal Communication Concepts, Joan Cahill, Katie Crowley, Sam Cromie, Alison Kay, Michael Gormley, Eamonn Kenny, Sonja Hermann, Ciaran Doyle, Ann Hever, Robert J. Ross

Conference papers

New assisted driving technology provides a solution to enabling driver persistence while also addressing older adult fitness to drive issues. The proposed driver assistance system follows a detailed literature review, an analysis of secondary data, and the specification of a solution using human machine interaction (HMI) design methods. Overall, the assisted driving concept follows from a principled/ethical perspective in relation to promoting self-efficacy and enablement for older adults. The system is conceptualized as a supportive friend or ‘co-pilot’. It is argued that the use of new car-based sensors, along with machine learning intelligence and novel multimodal HMI communication methods will …


Start Of Epidemy In A City: Short-Term Forecast Of Covid-19 With Gmdh-Based Algorithms And Official Medical Statistics, Anna Boldyreva, Mikhail Alexandrov, Olexiy Koshulko, Svetland Popova Jan 2020

Start Of Epidemy In A City: Short-Term Forecast Of Covid-19 With Gmdh-Based Algorithms And Official Medical Statistics, Anna Boldyreva, Mikhail Alexandrov, Olexiy Koshulko, Svetland Popova

Conference papers

The sudden onset and quick development of an unknown epidemic may lead to tragic consequences: panic of population due to victims and unpreparedness of authorities for effectively help to population. These circumstances define extremely high requirements to the tools for short-term operational forecast. Namely, such tools should provide reliable results when model of phenomenon is unknown (factors of disease spreading) and data are limited (time series of observations). GMDH-based algorithms just meet these requirements unlike modern differential or advanced statistical models. In this study we test different algorithms from GMDH Shell platform on the example of Covid-19 epidemic in Moscow …