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Full-Text Articles in Other Forestry and Forest Sciences
A Polygon-Based Modeling Approach To Assess Exposure Of Resources And Assets To Wildfire, Matthew P. Thompson, Joe Scott, Jeffrey D. Kaiden, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
A Polygon-Based Modeling Approach To Assess Exposure Of Resources And Assets To Wildfire, Matthew P. Thompson, Joe Scott, Jeffrey D. Kaiden, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
USDA Forest Service / UNL Faculty Publications
Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with pixel-based burn probability estimates enables quantification of HVRA exposure to wildfire in terms of expected area burned. However, statistical expectations can mask variability in HVRA area burned across all simulated fires. We present an alternative, polygon-based formulation for deriving estimates of HVRA area burned. This effort enhances investigations …
A National Approach For Integrating Wildfire Simulation Modeling Into Wildland Urban Interface Risk Assessments Within The United States, Jessica R. Haas, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
A National Approach For Integrating Wildfire Simulation Modeling Into Wildland Urban Interface Risk Assessments Within The United States, Jessica R. Haas, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
USDA Forest Service / UNL Faculty Publications
Ongoing human development into fire-prone areas contributes to increasing wildfire risk to human life. It is critically important, therefore, to have the ability to characterize wildfire risk to populated places, and to identify geographic areas with relatively high risk. A fundamental component of wildfire risk analysis is establishing the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and interaction with social and ecological values. A variety of fire modeling systems exist that can provide spatially resolved estimates of wildfire likelihood, which when coupled with maps of values-at-risk enable probabilistic exposure analysis. With this study we demonstrate the feasibility and utility of pairing burn probabilities …
A Wildfire Risk Assessment Framework For Land And Resource Management, Joe H. Scott, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin
A Wildfire Risk Assessment Framework For Land And Resource Management, Joe H. Scott, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin
USDA Forest Service / UNL Faculty Publications
Wildfires can result in significant, long-lasting impacts to ecological, social, and economic systems. It is necessary, therefore, to identify and understand the risks posed by wildland fire, and to develop cost-effective mitigation strategies accordingly. This report presents a general framework with which to assess wildfire risk and explore mitigation options, and illustrates a process for implementing the framework. Two key strengths of the framework are its flexibility— allowing for a multitude of data sources, modeling techniques, and approaches to measuring risk—and its scalability, with potential application for project, forest, regional, and national planning. The specific risk assessment process we introduce …