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Hidden Mechanisms Of Climate Impacts In Western Forests: Integrating Theory And Observation For Climate Adaptation, Sara J. Germain

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Fire, insects, and disease are necessary components of forest ecosystems. Yet, climate change is intensifying these tree stressors and creating new interactions that threaten forest survival. This dissertation combined field observations with statistical predictions of changing disturbances in western forests to identify 1) how conventional models may underestimate future forest loss, and 2) how positive relationships between trees may be exploited by managers to prevent forest loss.

In Chapter II, I tested whether increasingly extreme weather with climate change increases Pacific yew extinction risk. I found that conventional modeling methods underestimated local extinction risk because trees were adapted to a …