Animal Sciences Commons^™

Predicting Range Shifts Of African Apes Under Global Change Scenarios, Joana S. Carvalho, Bruce Graham, Gaeelle Bocksberger, Fiona Maisels, Elizabeth A. Williamson, Serge Wich, Tenekwetche Sop, Bala Amarasekaran, Benjamin Barca, Abdulai Barrie, Richard A. Bergl, Christophe Boesch, Hedwige Boesch, Terry M. Brncic, Bartelijntje Buys, Rebecca Chancellor, Emmanuel Danquah, Osiris A. Doumbe, Stephane Y. Le-Duc, Anh Galat-Luong, Jessica Ganas, Sylvain Gatti, Andrea Ghiurghi, Annemarie Goedmakers, Nicolas Granier, Dismas Hakizimana, Barbara Haurez, Josephine Head, Ilka Herbinger, Annika Hillers, Sorrel Jones, Jessica Junker, Nakedi Maputla, Eno-Nku Manasseh, Maureen S. Mccarthy, Mary Molokwu-Odozi, Bethan J. Morgan, Yoshihiro Nakashima, Paul K. N'Goran, Stuart Nixon, Louis Nkembi, Emmanuelle Normand, Laurent D. Z. Nzooh, Sarah H. Olson, Leon Payne, Charles-Albert Petre, Alex K. Piel, Lilian Pintea, Andrew J. Plumptre, Aaron S. Rundus, Adeline Serckx, Fiona A. Stewart, Jacqueline Sunderland-Groves, Nikki Tagg, Angelique Todd, Ashley Vosper, Jose F. C. Wenceslau, Erin G. Wessling, Jacob Willie, Hjalmar S. Kuehl

Anthropology & Sociology Faculty Publications

Aim: Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap. Location: Tropical Africa. Methods: We compiled occurrence data (n = 5,203) on African apes from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant climate-, habitat- and human-related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to …