Agriculture Commons^™

Herbaceous Production Lost To Tree Encroachment In United States Rangelands, Scott L. Morford, Brady W. Allred, Dirac L. Twidwell Jr, Matthew O. Jones, Jeremy D. Maestas, Caleb P. Roberts, David E. Naugle

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

1. Rangelands of the United States provide ecosystem services that benefit society and rural economies. Native tree encroachment is often overlooked as a primary threat to rangelands due to the slow pace of tree cover expansion and the positive public perception of trees. Still, tree encroachment fragments these landscapes and reduces herbaceous production, thereby threatening habitat quality for grassland wildlife and the economic sustainability of animal agriculture.

2. Recent innovations in satellite remote sensing permit the tracking of tree encroachment and the corresponding impact on herbaceous production. We analysed tree cover change and herbaceous production across the western United States …

Where To Invest Project Efforts For Greater Benefit: A Framework Formanagement Performance Mapping With Examples For Potato Seed Health, C. E. Buddenhagen, Y. Xing, J. L. Andrade-Piedra, G. A. Forbes, P. Kromann, I. Navarrete, S. Thomas-Sharma, Robin A. Choudhury, K. F. Andersen Onofre, E. Schulte-Geldermann

School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Policymakers and donors often need to identify the locations where technologies are most likely to have important effects, to increase the benefits from agricultural development or extension efforts. Higher-quality information may help to target the high-benefit locations, but often actions are needed with limited information. The value of information (VOI) in this context is formalized by evaluating the results of decision making guided by a set of specific information compared with the results of acting without considering that information. We present a framework for management performance mapping that includes evaluating the VOI for decision making about geographic priorities in regional …

Assessing Approaches For Stratifying Producer Fields Based On Biophysical Attributes For Regional Yield-Gap Analysis, Spyridon Mourtzinis, Patricio Grassini, Juan I. Rattalino Edreira, José F. Andrade, Peter M. Kyveryga, Shawn P. Conley

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Large databases containing producer field-level yield and management records can be used to identify causes of yield gaps. A relevant question is how to account for the diverse biophysical background (i.e., climate and soil) across fields and years, which can confound the effect of a given management practice on yield. Here we evaluated two approaches to group producer fields based on biophysical attributes: (i) a technology extrapolation domain spatial framework (‘TEDs’) that delineates regions with similar (long-term average) annual weather and soil water storage capacity and (ii) clusters based on field-specific soil properties and weather during each crop …

Can Bangladesh Produce Enough Cereals To Meet Future Demand?, J. Timsina, J. Wolf, N. Guilpart, L G. J. Van Bussel, P. Grassini, J. Van Wart, A. Hossain, H. Rashid, S. Islam, M. K. Van Ittersum

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Bangladesh faces huge challenges in achieving food security due to its high population, diet changes, and limited room for expanding cropland and cropping intensity. The objective of this study is to assess the degree to which Bangladesh can be self-sufficient in terms of domestic maize, rice and wheat production by the years 2030 and 2050 by closing the existing gap (Yg) between yield potential (Yp) and actual farm yield (Ya), accounting for possible changes in cropland area. Yield potential and yield gaps were calculated for the three crops using well-validated crop models and site-specific weather,management and soil data, and upscaled …

Prospects For Increasing Sugarcane And Bioethanol Production On Existing Crop Area In Brazil, Fábio R. Marin, Geraldo B. Martha Jr., Kenneth Cassman, Patricio Grassini

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

This article assesses sugarcane yield gaps (YG) in Brazil to determine the degree to which production can be increased without land expansion. In our scenario assessments, we evaluated how much of the projected sugarcane demand to 2024 (for both sugar and bioethanol) can be satisfied through YG closure. The current national average yield is 62% of yield potential estimated for rainfed conditions (i.e., a YG of 38%). Continuing the historical rate of yield gain is not sufficient to meet the projected demand without an area expansion by 5% and 45% for lowand high-demand scenarios, respectively. Closing the exploitable YG to …

Can Bangladesh Produce Enough Cereals To Meet Future Demand?, J. Timsina, J. Wolf, N. Guilpart, L.G.J. Van Bussel, P. Grassini, J. Van Wart, A. Hossain, H. Rashid, S. Islam, M.K. Van Ittersum

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Bangladesh faces huge challenges in achieving food security due to its high population, diet changes, and limited room for expanding cropland and cropping intensity. The objective of this study is to assess the degree to which Bangladesh can be self-sufficient in terms of domestic maize, rice and wheat production by the years 2030 and 2050 by closing the existing gap (Yg) between yield potential (Yp) and actual farm yield (Ya), accounting for possible changes in cropland area. Yield potential and yield gaps were calculated for the three crops using well-validated crop models and site-specific weather,management and soil data, and upscaled …

Estimating Yield Gaps At The Cropping System Level, Nicolas Guilpart, Patricio Grassini, Victor O. Sadras, Jagadish Timsina, Kenneth Cassman

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Yield gap analyses of individual crops have been used to estimate opportunities for increasing crop production at local to global scales, thus providing information crucial to food security. However, increases in crop production can also be achieved by improving cropping system yield through modification of spatial and temporal arrangement of individual crops. In this paper we define the cropping system yield potential as the output from the combination of crops that gives the highest energy yield per unit of land and time, and the cropping system yield gap as the difference between actual energy yield of an existing cropping system …

Rooting For Food Security In Sub-Saharan Africa, Nicolas Guilpart, Patricio Grassini, Justin Van Wart, Haishun Yang, Martin K. Van Ittersum, Lenny G.J. Van Bussel, Joost Wolf, Lieven Claessens, Johan G.B. Leenaars, Kenneth G. Cassman

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

There is a persistent narrative about the potential of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to be a ‘grain breadbasket’ because of large gaps between current low yields and yield potential with good management, and vast land resources with adequate rainfall. However, rigorous evaluation of the extent to which soils can support high, stable yields has been limited by lack of data on rootable soil depth of sufficient quality and spatial resolution. Here we use location-specific climate data, a robust spatial upscaling approach, and crop simulation to assess sensitivity of rainfed maize yields to root-zone water holding capacity. We find that SSA could …

Prospects For Increasing Sugarcane And Bioethanol Production On Existing Crop Area In Brazil, Fabio R. Martin, Geraldo B. Martha,Jr, Kenneth G. Cassman, Patricio Grassini

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

This article assesses sugarcane yield gaps (YG) in Brazil to determine the degree to which production can be increased without land expansion. In our scenario assessments, we evaluated how much of the projected sugarcane demand to 2024 (for both sugar and bioethanol) can be satisfied through YG closure. The current national average yield is 62% of yield potential estimated for rainfed conditions (i.e., a YG of 38%). Continuing the historical rate of yield gain is not sufficient to meet the projected demand without an area expansion by 5% and 45% for lowand high-demand scenarios, respectively. Closing the exploitable YG to …

Yield Gap Analysis Of Us Rice Production Systems Shows Opportunities For Improvement, Matthew B. Espe, Kenneth Cassman, Haishun Yang, Nicolas Guilpart, Patricio Grassini, Justin Van Wart, Merle Anders, Donn Beighley, Dustin Harrell, Steve Linscombe, Kent Mckenzie, Randall Mutters, Lloyd T. Wilson, Bruce A. Linquist

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Many assessments of crop yield gaps based on comparisons to actual yields suggest grain yields in highly intensified agricultural systems are at or near the maximum yield attainable. However, these estimates can be biased in situations where yields are below full yield potential. Rice yields in the US continue to increase annually, suggesting that rice yields are not near the potential. In the interest of directing future efforts towards areas where improvement is most easily achieved, we estimated yield potential and yield gaps in US rice production systems, which are amongst the highest yielding rice systems globally. Zones around fourteen …

Potential For Crop Production Increase In Argentina Through Closure Of Existing Yield Gaps, Fernando Aramburu Merlos, Juan Pablo Monzon, Jorge L. Mercau, Miguel Taboada, Fernando H. Andrade, Antonio J. Hall, Esteban Jobbagy, Kenneth Cassman, Patricio Grassini

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Favorable climate and soils for rainfed crop production, together with a relatively low population density,results in 70–90% of Argentina grain production being exported. No assessment to date has tried to estimate the potential for extra grain production for soybean, wheat and maize, which account for 78%of total harvested area, by yield gap closure on existing cropland area and its impact at a global scale.The objectives of this paper are (i) to estimate how much additional grain could be produced without expanding crop area by closing yield gaps in Argentina, (ii) to investigate how this production and yield gaps varies across …

How Good Is Good Enough? Data Requirements For Reliable Crop Yield Simulations And Yield-Gap Analysis, Patricio Grassini, Lenny G.J. Van Bussel, Justin Van Wart, Joost Wolf, Lieven Claessens, Haishun Yang, Hendrik Boogaard, Hugo De Groot, Martin K. Van Ittersum, Kenneth Cassman

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Numerous studies have been published during the past two decades that use simulation models to assess crop yield gaps (quantified as the difference between potential and actual farm yields), impact of climate change on future crop yields, and land-use change. However, there is a wide range in quality and spatial and temporal scale and resolution of climate and soil data underpinning these studies, as well as widely differing assumptions about cropping-system context and crop model calibration. Here we present an explicit rationale and methodology for selecting data sources for simulating crop yields and estimating yield gaps at specific locations that …

Assessment Of Rice Self-Sufficiency In 2025 In Eight African Countries, P. A.J. Van Oort, K. Saito, E. Amovin-Assagba, Lenny G.J. Van Bussel, Justin Van Wart, Hugo De Groot, Martin K. Van Ittersum, Kenneth Cassman, M. C.S. Wopereis

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Most African countries are far from self-sufficient in meeting their rice consumption; in eight countries the production: consumption ratio, ranged from 0.16 to 1.18 in 2012. We show that for the year 2025, with population growth, diet change and yield increase on existing land (intensification), countries cannot become fully self-sufficient in rice. This implies that for the future, a mixture of area expansion and imports will be needed on top of yield gap closure. Further research is needed for identification of most suitable new land for rice area expansion and areas that should be protected.

Drivers Of Spatial And Temporal Variation In Soybean Yield And Irrigation Requirements In The Western Us Corn Belt, Patricio Grassini, Jessica A. Torrion, Kenneth Cassman, Haishun Yang, James Specht

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Both rainfed and irrigated soybean production are important in Nebraska (western US Corn Belt), accounting for a respective 48 and 52% of the state’s soybean production of 7 Mt on a respective 55 and 45% share of the state soybean area of 1.9 Mha. To date, no assessment of factors that may account for regional and inter-annual variation in yield and irrigation amount has been performed. To accomplish that objective, we evaluated a database containing on-farm field yields and total irrigation amount used in those fields. These data have been collected annually from ca. 1000 soybean fields in six regions …

Estimating Crop Yield Potential At Regional To National Scales, Justin Van Wart, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Shaobing Peng, Maribeth Milner, Kenneth Cassman

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

World population will increase 35% by 2050, which may require doubling crop yields on existing farm land to minimize expansion of agriculture into remaining rainforests, wetlands, and grasslands. Whether this is possible depends on closing the gap between yield potential (Yp, yield without pest, disease, nutrient or water stresses, or Yw under water-limited rainfed conditions) and current average farm yields in both developed and developing countries. Quantifying the yield gap is therefore essential to inform policies and prioritize research to achieve food security without environmental degradation. Previous attempts to estimate Yp and Yw at a global level have been too …

Use Of Agro-Climatic Zones To Upscale Simulated Crop Yield Potential, Justin Van Wart, Lenny G.J. Van Bussel, Joost Wolf, Rachel Licker, Patricio Grassini, Andrew Nelson, Hendrik Boogaard, James Gerber, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Lieven Claessens, Martin K. Van Ittersum, Kenneth Cassman

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Yield gap analysis, which evaluates magnitude and variability of difference between crop yield potential (Yp) or water limited yield potential (Yw) and actual farm yields, provides a measure of untapped food production capacity. Reliable location-specific estimates of yield gaps, either derived from research plots or simulation models, are available only for a limited number of locations and crops due to cost and time required for field studies or for obtaining data on long-term weather, crop rotations and management practices, and soil properties. Given these constraints, we compare global agro-climatic zonation schemes for suitability to up-scale location-specific estimates of Yp and …