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International Rice Outlook: International Rice Baseline Projections 2021–2031, A. Durand-Morat, S. Bairagi

Research Reports and Research Bulletins

The war in Ukraine and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are pushing input costs to record levels. Although rice prices have increased some in the last several months, production costs have increased more than proportionally, undermining rice profitability.

We project global rice production will surpass global rice consumption for most of the coming decade, with a small deficit developing by the end of the projected period.

The projected growth in production is almost exclusively due to productivity gains since the global rice area is projected to increase only marginally by 2029–2031.

The projected growth in global rice consumption …