Systems Engineering Commons^™

Using Earned Value Data To Forecast The Duration Of Department Of Defense (Dod) Space Acquisition Programs, Shedrick M. Bridgeforth

Theses and Dissertations

The accuracy of cost estimates is vital during this era of budget constraints. A key component of this accuracy is regularly updating the cost estimate at completion (EAC). A 2014 study by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) improved the accuracy of the cost estimate at completion (EAC) for space system contracts. The study found schedule duration to be a cost driver, but assumed the underlying duration estimate was accurate. This research attempts to improve the accuracy of the duration estimate from the AFCAA study; accuracy is evaluated with the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). The methods researched here …

A Comparative Study Of Learning Curve Models In Defense Airframe Cost Estimating, Justin R. Moore

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this research was to identify which learning curve model is most accurate when applied to Defense acquisition programs. Wright's original learning curve model is widely accepted and used within Defense acquisitions, but the 75+ year old model may be outdated. This study compares Wright's model against three alternative learning curve models using total lot costs for the F-15 C/D & E programs: the Stanford-B model, the DeJong learning formula, and the S-Curve model. However, the results of the study are inconclusive. Two of the three alternative models, the DeJong and S-Curve, rely on the use of an …

Creating A User-Friendly Personal Wine Collection Inventory Management System, Peter Loddengaard

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

This project set out to create a user-friendly wine collection management software. Existing systems were reviewed and discussions with collectors took place to establish the user requirements for this type of inventory management system. This led to the scope of the project being narrowed to making a wine bottle entry form that was quick and easy to use. The programming language, Ruby on Rails, was used to design this system, and learning the software was a large part of the project itself. It was established that four forms would be designed using combinations of two ergonomic factors: an “F” shaped …

Frito-Lay - Supply Chain Impact Analysis, Kerri Blosch, Vincent Phua, Jeffrey Silva

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

The snack food company Frito-Lay relies on Route Sales Representatives (RSRs) to stock and maintain shelves of snack foods in every store. Frito-Lay currently does not have a system which can accurately predict cannibalization, or the effects of a store opening or closing on other stores of the same chain in the area. The goal is to sort through 1900 stores in a given metropolitan area to see the effects of cannibalization. In order to tackle the problem, a Microsoft Access program was created to filter stores based on location or whether the store was open for the full three-year …

Process Testing And Improvement Of Tapping Machinery At Lisi Aerospace, Michael James Hester

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

This report documents my senior project for California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo. I have chosen to do a senior project with Lisi Aerospace. Lisi would like to compare the manufacturer rated cycle count of taps versus an experimental one based on our machines in house. My goal for this project would be to run an experiment on one tapping machine and report on the achievable cycle count for the taps. I plan to do this in several ways including:

• Running extra cycle counts above tap manufacturer recommendations

• Documenting machine failure modes

• Create a process document to be repeated …

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Improving Advertisement Recognition And User Interface Of Gameofwarrealtips.Com, Chad Kihm, Alexander Meyer

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

The purpose of this experiment was to determine which location of advertisement would be the most recognized on the Game of War Real Tips website and to improve the website’s user interface by using both quantitative and qualitative data. To accomplish this, two experiments were created. The first experiment was designed to determine which location of advertisement would be recognized most by users. A screen would flash for 0.5 seconds and the subjects would mark where they believed they recognized an advertisement. A statistical analysis was completed to determine whether the location of the advertisement had an effect on the …

Wine Club Shipment Package Redesign, Emily E. Prescott

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

This report shows the design, manufacturing, and testing process for the product development of a wine club shipment package for Niner Wine Estates. Niner has two different shipment sizes, 4 bottles and 6 bottles, and wishes to improve their current package by giving it a more “high-class” feel. After the new package was designed and prototyped, it went through standardized quality testing to be cleared for commercial use. This testing is intended to simulate the distribution cycle the package will experience and subject it to potential hazards such as being dropped and vehicle vibration during transportation.

After the package passed …

Management Of Rural Water Services In Nicaragua: A Systematic Network Approach To Evaluating Stakeholder Alignment, Jeffrey P. Walters, Amy N. Javemick-Will

Faculty Publications - Biomedical, Mechanical, and Civil Engineering

Water sector literature attributes a substantial cause of rural water system failure in developing countries to poor alignment between water service stakeholders. This study aimed to investigate a means for assessing stakeholder alignment by comparing the systemic interaction of stakeholder values, where the term ‘stakeholder values’ refers to aspects stakeholders believe are necessary to ensure rural water services are sustainable. The research held focus groups with key stakeholder groups involved in the management of rural water infrastructure in Terrabona, Nicaragua, to identify stakeholder values, and then used cross-impact analysis to evaluate how these values interacted to form stakeholder value networks …

Planning Rural Water Services In Nicaragua: A Systems-Based Analysis Of Impact Factors Using Graphical Modeling, Jeffrey P. Walters, Paul S. Chinowsky

Faculty Publications - Biomedical, Mechanical, and Civil Engineering

The success or failure of rural water services in the developing world is a result of numerous factors that interact in a complex set of connections that are difficult to separate and identify. This research effort presented a novel means to empirically reveal the systemic interactions of factors that influence rural water service sustainability in the municipalities of Darío and Terrabona, Nicaragua. To accomplish this, the study employed graphical modeling to build and analyze factor networks. Influential factors were first identified by qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing transcribed interviews from community water committee members. Factor influences were then inferred by graphical …

A Human-Centered Credit-Banking System For Convenient, Fair And Secure Carpooling Among Members Of An Association, H.-S. Jacob Tsao, Magdalini Eirinaki

Faculty Publications

This paper proposes an unconventional carpool-matching system concept that is different from existing systems with four innovative operational features: (F1) The proposed matching system will be used by members of an association and sponsored by the association, e.g., the employees of a company, members of a homeowner association, employees of a shopping center. This expands the scope beyond commute trips. Such associations can also voluntarily form alliances to increase the number of possible carpool partners and geographical reach. (F2) Service provided by a driver or received by a rider incurs credit or debt to a bank centrally and fairly managed …

Long-Term Functionality Of Rural Water Services In Developing Countries: A System Dynamics Approach To Understanding The Dynamic Interaction Of Causal Factors, Jeffrey P. Walters, Amy N. Javernick-Will

Faculty Publications - Biomedical, Mechanical, and Civil Engineering

Research has shown that sustainability of rural water infrastructure in developing countries is largely affected by the dynamic and systemic interactions of technical, social, financial, institutional, and environmental factors that can lead to premature water system failure. This research employs systems dynamic modeling, which uses feedback mechanisms to understand how these factors interact dynamically to influence long-term rural water system functionality. To do this, the research first identified and aggregated key factors from literature, then asked water sector experts to indicate the polarity and strength between factors through Delphi and cross impact survey questionnaires, and finally used system dynamics modeling …

Warrior Information Network- Tactical Human View Models & Analysis, Holly A. H. Handley, Cansu Kandemir, Elnaz Dario

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The Human View collects and categorizes data to provide information and analyses on the human component of a system. This organization of human system data helps to understand what the impact of the technology on human performance may be. The first phase of this project completed exploratory work on different Human View techniques in the context of the Warrior Information Network - Tactical (WIN-T) system. This included creating a high-level diagram to provide a conceptual realization of a General Purpose User (GPU) interacting with the WIN-T system, creating engineering diagrams using the System Modeling Language (SysML) to render the Human …

Alternate Models For Natural Gas Transportation System Performance Optimization, Gnana Shekaran Arumugam

Theses and Dissertations--Manufacturing Systems Engineering

The Natural Gas market in the U.S is growing rapidly with evidence that the nation has enough shale reserves to power the country for the next century. To ensure continued economic benefits through the use of this environmentally desired energy source, it becomes important to optimize the transportation network system design. Transportation through pipelines is one of the most common methods used to distribute Natural Gas from source to destination. This transportation system, consisting of pipelines, compressors and other supporting equipment, must be optimized, considering all relevant parameters to minimize cost and increase profit. The research presented here improves on …

Analyzing Stakeholders Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, Patrick T. Hester

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Stakeholder analysis was first explored as a methodology to assist business leaders with their strategic management functions. Stakeholder analysis has since expanded beyond the corporate arena. Stakeholders are a vital element in all complex systems problems; they are the customers, users, clients, suppliers, employees, regulators, and team members of a system. They fund a system, design it, build it, operate it, maintain it, and dispose of it. Each stakeholder contributes their own value-added perspective, as described by the systems principle known as complementarity. While many approaches exist for classifying and determining their attitudes, these approaches stop short of evaluating stakeholders …

Reducing Uncertainty In Technology Selection For Long Life Cycle Engineering Designs, Halil I. Ozdemir, C. Ariel Pinto, Resit Unal, Charles B. Keating, Colin Britcher, Sila Çetinkaya (Ed.), J. K. Ryan (Ed.)

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The best capabilities are usually achieved by having the latest technologies in defense systems. However, including the new, usually immature, technologies in a system design does not always easily result in achieving the capabilities at the right level, at an affordable cost, and in a timely manner. Many programs have suffered from immature technologies as cost overruns, late or no deliveries, and poor performance levels. Another impact of technology selection appears as obsolescence after the deployment of systems, or even before the deployment of the system. As the technologies of a system become obsolete, the cost of maintaining the system …

Challenges For Developing Complex System Governance, Charles B. Keating, Polinpaplinho F. Katina, Joseph M. Bradley, Sila Çetinkaya (Ed.), J. K. Ryan (Ed.)

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

This paper examines the challenges and practice implications for Complex System Governance (CSG). CSG is presented as an emerging field focused on the design, execution, and evolution of the higher order (metasystem) functions necessary to provide control, communication, coordination, and integration of a complex system. This paper is focused on three primary objectives. First, we introduce the complex system problem domain that the CSG field is being designed to address. The pervasiveness of this problem domain is demonstrated by a short examination of the water utilities sector. Second, we expound the nature of CSG and an emerging reference model …

Learning By Doing - Energy Systems Management, Nima Shahriari, Adrian V. Gheorghe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Climate change concerns have confronted energy policy makers by unprecedented challenges in the 21st century. Revolution of renewable energy technologies, as well as more efficient energy systems, has been promising in the context of global warming. However, these technologies are not maturing and chaning. Consequently planning for development of these resources requires dealing with various multidisciplinary research questions such as financial feasibility of renewable energy projects. Nevertheless, there is considerable lack of education programs offering multidisciplinary approach for addressing the current energy challenges. Based on the 21st evolving energy landscape, an interdisciplinary graduate certificate course work was designed at Old …

A Framework For Sustainable Material Selection For Multi-Generational Components, Ryan T. Bradley

Theses and Dissertations--Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

The early stages of a product’s design are a critical time for decisions that impact the entire life-cycle cost. Product designers have mastered the first generation; however, they currently do not have the ability to know the impact of their decisions on the multi-generational view. This thesis aims at closing the gap between total life-cycle information and the traditional design process in order to harbor sustainable value creation among all stakeholders involved. A framework is presented that uses a combination of a life-cycle costing methodology and an evolutionary algorithm in order to achieve a sustainability assessment for a true multi-generational …

How System Errors Affect Aircrew Resource Management (Crm), Justin Y. Adkins, Kevin Macg. Adams, Patrick T. Hester

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

System errors, both mechanical and human in nature, can have a grave effect on aircrew judgement in flight. The effects of these errors can be massively compounded during emergency situations. Crew Resource Management (CRM) is an important process aircrews can utilize to minimize risks and enhance assessments. The employment of this technique can be validated by aviation mishaps over the last three decades and how system errors increased the probability of the incident occurring. Suggestions can be made to further prevent similar accidents from occurring in the future utilizing historical aeronautical records. This paper outlines an approach by which systems …

An Agent Based Approach For Simulating Demo Enterprise Models, Mamadou Seck, Joseph Barjis

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

DEMO (design and engineering methodology for organization) is a theoretically grounded methodology for rigorous enterprise modeling. It provides relevant concepts from a construction perspective. As the methodology gains a wider audience, there is a growing interest in simulating DEMO models. Most attempts to develop a simulation approach for enterprise models in general, and the DEMO methodology in particular, are based on process oriented conceptualizations that are typically implementation in a discrete event paradigm. In this paper, we propose a conceptual framework for the translation of DEMO models into an agent based simulation. We will describe the DEMO methodology in some …

Modeling Supply Chain Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Systems, Varun Ramachandran

Doctoral Dissertations

"While strategies for emergency response to large-scale disasters have been extensively studied, little has been done to map medium- to long-term strategies capable of restoring supply chain infrastructure systems and reconnecting such systems from a local urban area to national supply chain systems. This is, in part, because no comprehensive, data-driven model of supply chain networks exists. Without such models communities cannot re-establish the level of connectivity required for timely restoration of goods and services. This dissertation builds a model of supply chain interdependent critical infrastructure (SCICI) as a complex adaptive systems problem. It defines model elements, data needs/element, the …

Computational Intelligence Based Complex Adaptive System-Of-Systems Architecture Evolution Strategy, Siddharth Agarwal

Doctoral Dissertations

The dynamic planning for a system-of-systems (SoS) is a challenging endeavor. Large scale organizations and operations constantly face challenges to incorporate new systems and upgrade existing systems over a period of time under threats, constrained budget and uncertainty. It is therefore necessary for the program managers to be able to look at the future scenarios and critically assess the impact of technology and stakeholder changes. Managers and engineers are always looking for options that signify affordable acquisition selections and lessen the cycle time for early acquisition and new technology addition. This research helps in analyzing sequential decisions in an evolving …

Quantum Inspired Algorithms For Learning And Control Of Stochastic Systems, Karthikeyan Rajagopal

Doctoral Dissertations

"Motivated by the limitations of the current reinforcement learning and optimal control techniques, this dissertation proposes quantum theory inspired algorithms for learning and control of both single-agent and multi-agent stochastic systems.

A common problem encountered in traditional reinforcement learning techniques is the exploration-exploitation trade-off. To address the above issue an action selection procedure inspired by a quantum search algorithm called Grover's iteration is developed. This procedure does not require an explicit design parameter to specify the relative frequency of explorative/exploitative actions.

The second part of this dissertation extends the powerful adaptive critic design methodology to solve finite horizon stochastic optimal …

Bus Rapid Transit (Brt) Toolbox: Brt Person Throughput-Vehicle Congestion Tradeoffs, Li Jingquan, H.-S. Jacob Tsao, Ching-Yao Chan, Kun Zhou, Wei-Bin Zhang

Faculty Publications

This report documents a research effort to understand the current practice and issues associated with Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) planning and deployment. It reviewed the design options incorporated into existing BRT deployments across California and the nation. The project team interviewed practitioners of California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) Districts and transit agencies to understand the BRT project approval decision-making process, the impacts of BRT implementation and the Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) for transit and non-transit system performance. The studies revealed that though Caltrans and transit agencies do use a similar set of MOEs for the evaluation of BRT projects, the …

A General Intuitive Design Pattern For Optimally Sequencing Treatment Combinations In 2k Factorial Experiment And A Simple Estimation Algorithm, H.-S. Jacob Tsao, Minnie Patel

Faculty Publications

The number of model parameters of a 2k factorial design grows exponentially. When the number of factors is large, numerous higher-order interactions constitute a vast majority of the model parameters while many of them do not exist or are insignificant. The classic methods of fractional factorial designs, Plackett–Burman designs, Taguchi designs, etc. seek an already developed and often cataloged design that fits exactly the problem being tackled or select a design that fits it the most. Most, if not all, of these designs were developed in absence of convenient computation tools and enjoy computational simplicity. The necessary number of treatment …

Systems Approach To Producing Electrospun Polyvinylidene Difluoride Fiber Webs With Controlled Fiber Structure And Functionality, Brian D. Bell

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Polyvinylidene difluoride (PVDF) is a functional polymeric material that can be used for a wide variety of applications. There are many new future applications that were recently suggested for electrospun PVDF fibers. Electrospinning is a process capable of producing nano to micro sized PVDF fibers in a web. It is important to control the structure of the web during electrospinning because by controlling the structure of the web it is possible for the PVDF fiber web to have increased performance in comparison to other common forms of PVDF.

While past scientific literature focused on applications of PVDF fibers, little was …

A Framework And System For A Multi-Model Decision Aid For Sustainable Farming Practices, Kasi Bharath Vegesana

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Decision support systems (DSS) for farmers address the need for modeling multiple processes and scenarios that affect farmer decision making. Existing DSS have various drawbacks that stop them from being deployed as decision support tools. This research proposes a multi-model simulation framework that can be used to analyze farm management practices at the crop level, individual farm level and at the community level to show the impact and alternatives for smallholder farming practices. A generic crop growth model is proposed, based on existing equations. We run sensitivity analysis on the model to identify important variables. The outputs from the crop …

Safety Culture Monitoring: A Management Approach For Assessing Nuclear Safety Culture Health Performance Utilizing Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis, James Harold Warren Jr.

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Nuclear power plants are among the most technologically complex of all energy facilities. This complexity reflects the precision needed in design, maintenance and operations to harness the energy of the atom safely, reliably and economically. Nuclear energy thus requires consistent, high levels of organizational performance by the highly skilled professionals who operate and maintain nuclear power plants (Nuclear Energy Institute [NEI], 2014, p. 1).

A key element for achieving consistent, high levels of performance in a nuclear organization is its safety culture. Nuclear safety culture is for an organization what character and personality is for an individual: a feature that …