Systems Engineering Commons^™

Stop Blaming My Users: Illumination Of The Technocentric Mythos Bias, Ervin H. Frenzel, Richard Lightcap

Journal of Cybersecurity Education, Research and Practice

 Abstract -This conceptual essay addresses the need for systemic and systematic transdisciplinary analytical techniques within cybersecurity and technical security. This conceptual essay is contingent upon recognition that cybersecurity is not simply technical in nature, it does not need an adversary, and more importantly it is based upon systems engineering and systems thinking.  The essay contributes a socio-technical attribution chain and field-specific ontology/taxonomy which distinguish user-triggered events from root causes, latent conditions, technical debt, validation failures, governance failures, and attribution bias before assigning responsibility to end users. It systematically defines an ontology inclusive of developer technical debt, organizational debt arising from …

Assessing Passenger Electric Vehicle Growth Strategies And Their Impacts On Electricity Demand Load And Co2 Emissions In Aceh Province To Achieve Net Zero Emission Target By 2060, Taufik Hidayat, Widodo Wahyu Purwanto

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

The electrification of the transport sector is a crucial pathway for achieving Indonesia’s Net Zero Emissions (NZE) target by 2060. This study assesses the potential impact of passenger electric vehicle (EV) penetration on electricity demand and CO2 emissions in Aceh Province through a scenario-based modelling approach. Two policy-aligned scenarios are assessed: a low-penetration (LP) scenario and a high-penetration (HP) scenario. Using the Gompertz model and the ASIF framework, total CO2 emissions were projected from 2020 to 2060. Results show that although higher EV penetration reduces direct emissions from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, total CO2 emissions increase more significantly under …

Ai-Scm Cmm: A Capability Maturity Model For Artificial Intelligence Integration In Supply Chain Management, Lordt Becklines, Omar F. El-Gayar, Patti Brooks, Insu Park

Annual Research Symposium

Artificial intelligence is increasingly deployed in supply chain management, yet many organizations struggle to align adoption efforts with process readiness, data quality, governance, and workforce capabilities, and they still lack validated supply chain specific roadmap for assessing readiness, sequencing investments, and reducing implementation risk. This study develops and evaluates a Capability Maturity Model for Artificial Intelligence Integration in Supply Chain Management to address that gap. Using a design science research approach, the study synthesizes prior literature and practitioner knowledge to define maturity dimensions, capability indicators, and staged progression levels for AI integration in supply chain contexts. The artifact and assessment …

Resilience Engineering Via Bifurcation And Ecological Network Analysis: Demonstrated In An Electric Power Case Study, Rogelio Gracia Otalvaro

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Modern systems are increasingly complex, interconnected cyber-physical systems that combine digital controls with physical infrastructure. This integration, along with the constant introduction of new technologies and actors into the network, enables reliable operation but introduces vulnerabilities to unexpected and varied disruptions and cascading failures, making resilience a critical concern. Traditional risk management and resilience assessment methods often struggle with the nonlinearity and dynamic behavior of these systems. This dissertation proposes a novel approach combining Bifurcation Analysis (BA) and Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) to enhance the understanding and improvement of system resilience. BA, a mathematical method from dynamical systems theory, is …

A Causal Model Of Performance Shaping Factors For Human Reliability Analysis In Manufacturing., Prameet Ranjan Jha

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Human reliability analysis is a critical component of probabilistic risk assessment, aimed at predicting and mitigating human errors in complex systems. This dissertation develops a novel approach to human reliability analysis in manufacturing by integrating structural equation modeling and Bayesian networks to improve the estimation of human error probabilities. Traditional human reliability assessment methods, such as the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) and the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), provide structured techniques for estimating human error probabilities. However, these methods often fail to capture the complex interdependencies among performance shaping factors (PSFs), limiting their applicability in …

Model-Based Approach To Support Safety Driven Design And Satisfy Mil-Std-882e Requirements With Stpa Coordination: A Case History In Suas Defense Acquisition, Daniel A. Shea

Theses and Dissertations

Increasingly complex defense systems that are routinely overbudget and behind schedule are driving digital engineering initiatives in the defense acquisition industry. MBSE offers a solution to counter this issue but the lack of guidance on how to implement it has led to significant experimentation. One MBSE area of interest is system safety. This research demonstrates how to conduct model-based Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to meet the unique system safety process requirements from MIL-STD882E. Based in systems theory, STPA extended for coordination enables a safety-driven design process of complex systems. This research investigated conducting STPA in the SysML-RAAML modeling language …

Fault Tree Analysis For Robust Design, Jonathan Degroff, Gene Jean-Win Hou

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

The objective of this research is to incorporate system failure into a robust design formation and solution process. The system failure referred to here will be built using fault tree analysis (FTA), which will take all lower-level failure events into consideration. Two examples are investigated here. One will directly treat the probabilities of the basis events as design variables, The other will be formulated in five different models: deterministic design optimization, the reliability index-based, the “and” gate-based, the “or” gate-based and the “inhibit” gate-based robust design. Their corresponding optimization solutions will be compared with each other. The post-optimality analysis of …

An Operational Field Study: A Comparison Of Piloting Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles And Uncrewed Aircraft Systems, David Thirtyacre, Joseph Cerreta, Pete Miller, Kimberly Luthi, Jolee Thirtyacre

Publications

and operations, the ability to cross-train personnel in both Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles and Small Uncrewed Aircraft System operations has become a focal point for efficiency and workforce optimization. This study presents a comparative analysis of the operational and human factor considerations involved in piloting mini UUV and sUASs, highlighting the key similarities and differences in control methods, environmental influences, navigation, emergency procedures, and situational awareness. A qualitative experimental field study was conducted between July 2024 and October 2024, involving real-world deployments of both systems in maritime and aerial environments. Findings indicated that while UUV and sUAS operators relied on remote …

Insider Threat Agent: A Behavioral Based Zero Trust Access Control Using Machine Learning Agent, Michael Fojude

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Hybrid work, cloud adoption, and freely available AI‑enabled attack tools have exposed critical weaknesses in perimeter‑centric security. Current breach reports attribute more than one‑third of incidents to insider misuse or credential compromise, yet many organizations still depend on static Role‑ or Attribute‑Based Access Control that neither verifies intent continuously nor adapts to subtle behavioral change. This research addresses that gap by designing and validating a behavioral based Zero Trust Access Control (ZTAC) Agent. A five‑year enterprise log Dataset was extracted and cleansed to establish a high‑fidelity baseline of normal user behavior. Feature engineering captured temporal regularity (login sequence, session duration), …

Containerization Of Seafarers In The International Shipping Industry: Contemporary Seamanship, Maritime Social Infrastructures, And Mobility Politics Of Global Logistics, Liang Wu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation discusses the mobility politics of container shipping and argues that technological development, political-economic order, and social infrastructure co-produce one another. Containerization, the use of standardized containers to carry cargo across modes of transportation that is said to have revolutionized and globalized international trade since the late 1950s, has served to expand and extend the power of international coalitions of states and corporations to control the movements of commodities (shipments) and labor (seafarers). The advent and development of containerization was driven by a sociotechnical imaginary and international social contract of seamless shipping and cargo flows. In practice, this liberal, …

The Hazard Prediction Problem, Mary E. Helander, Brendan Smith, Sylvia Charchut, Erika Swiatowy, Calvin Nau, Gregory Cavaretta, Timothy Schuler, Adam Schunk, Héctor Ortiz-Peña

Social Science - All Scholarship

This work formulates the hazard prediction problem while addressing the research question: Can machine learning create a model to automatically recognize patterns that correspond to hazard state conditions during a mission-critical operation? Supervised learning models were trained and tested on data observed from mission simulators, which allowed for safe observation of dynamic system states and undesirable casualty events. The prediction task was formulated as a binary classification problem, producing the probability of being in a hazard state at time t and providing situational awareness of a possible imminent loss. Several modeling architectures were investigated: neural networks, logistic regression, a support …

Kwad - Ksu All Weather Autonomous Drone, Nick Farinacci, Sebastian Gomez, Stewart Baker, Ed Sheridan

Symposium of Student Scholars

"KWAD" or "KSU all-Weather Autonomous Drone" project was sponsored by Ultool, LLC to the KSU Research and Service Foundation to create a lightweight drone capable of capturing HD video during all-weather operations. The conditions of all-weather operation include rainfall of one inch per hour and wind speeds of up to twenty miles per hour. In addition, a global minimum structural safety factor of two is required to ensure the system's integrity in extreme weather conditions. Potential mission profiles include autonomous aerial delivery, topological mapping in high moisture areas, security surveillance, search and rescue operations, emergency transportation of medical supplies, and …

Towards Structured Planning And Learning At The State Fisheries Agency Scale, Caleb A. Aldridge

Theses and Dissertations

Inland recreational fisheries has grown philosophically and scientifically to consider economic and sociopolitical aspects (non-biological) in addition to the biological. However, integrating biological and non-biological aspects of inland fisheries has been challenging. Thus, an opportunity exists to develop approaches and tools which operationalize planning and decision-making processes which include biological and non-biological aspects of a fishery. This dissertation expands the idea that a core set of goals and objectives is shared among and within inland fisheries agencies; that many routine operations of inland fisheries managers can be regimented or standardized; and the novel concept that current information and operations can …

Comparing Actively Managed Mutual Fund Categories To Index Funds Using Linear Regression Forecasting And Portfolio Optimization, Luke Weiner

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The global investment industry offers a wide variety of investment products especially for individual investors. One such product, index funds, which are younger than actively managed mutual funds, have typically outperformed managed funds. Despite this phenomenon, investors have displayed a tendency to continue investing in actively managed funds. Although only a small percentage of actively managed funds outperform index funds, the costs of actively managed funds are significantly higher. Also, managed fund performances are most often determined by their fund category such as growth or real estate. I wanted to answer the following question for individual investors: can we …

Quantitative Methods For Total Lifecycle Risk Likelihood And Impact Assessment In Sustainable Product Design Decision Making, Christian Enyoghasi

Theses and Dissertations--Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

Sustainable products promise significant economic, environmental, and societal benefits. Numerous methods are available for use during the new product development process to identify alternate product designs that optimize sustainability performance. Once any such design is selected and the product is launched, many uncertainties are likely to affect its performance over the total lifecycle. Such uncertainties give rise to risks that can influence the overall product sustainability performance. However, comprehensive quantitative methods to evaluate the likelihood or the impact of different risks to enable sustainable product design decision making are lacking.

This research aims to address this gap by developing a …

A Human Factors Study Of Risk Management Of Complex Agile Scrum Projects In Large Enterprises, Ravi Kalluri

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Agile Project Management methods have gained phenomenal success in the IT software world in managing projects of high complexity and uncertainty. However, Agile projects come with their unique set of risks. This paper seeks to explore the risks posed by human factors to complex Agile Scrum projects in large enterprises. Project Risk Management is crucial in determining the future performance of a complex project. Increasing project complexity makes it more and more difficult to anticipate potential events that could affect the project and to make effective decisions to reduce project risk exposure. This is even more true for Agile projects …

Requirements Analysis And Architecture For An Operational Study Of Fatigue In Usaf Mobility Aircrew, Jonathan F. Mecham

Theses and Dissertations

Aircrew fatigue in flight operations is a known hazard that has driven the creation of fatigue-reducing regulation and fatigue risk management systems industry wide. In addition, biomathematical models have been created and tested to forecast the effectiveness of aircrew under conditions of time-zone shifts and long duty days. However, limited operational studies exist to validate these models or to help understand how individual factors can affect them. Operational studies have a variety of limitations that make gathering typical data regarding fatigue or sleep difficult. This research takes systems requirement analysis approach to design a study that measures effects of circadian …

Decision Making Within An Nfl Context Using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis, Lawson Porter

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The National Football League (NFL) is the most popular sports league in the world, with millions of viewers every game and billions of dollars generated every season. Statistics are an important part of an NFL team’s business operating model and contribute greatly towards their decision making. Every season, general managers try to sign players that give the team the highest probability of winning games throughout the year. There are many factors that go into this decision, including the amount of money the team has to spend and the value that available players can bring to a team. Teams must abide …

Cybersecurity Risk Assessment Using Graph Theoretical Anomaly Detection And Machine Learning, Goksel Kucukkaya

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The cyber domain is a great business enabler providing many types of enterprises new opportunities such as scaling up services, obtaining customer insights, identifying end-user profiles, sharing data, and expanding to new communities. However, the cyber domain also comes with its own set of risks. Cybersecurity risk assessment helps enterprises explore these new opportunities and, at the same time, proportionately manage the risks by establishing cyber situational awareness and identifying potential consequences. Anomaly detection is a mechanism to enable situational awareness in the cyber domain. However, anomaly detection also requires one of the most extensive sets of data and features …

Risk Management Decision Making For Security And Trust In Hardware Supply Chains, Zachary A. Collier, Thomas L. Polmateer, James H. Lambert

CESUN Conference

Modern cyber-physical systems are enabled by electronic hardware and embedded systems. The security of these sub-components is a concern during the design and operational phases of cyber-physical system life cycles. Compromised electronics can result in mission-critical failures, unauthorized access, and other severe consequences. As systems become more complex and feature greater connectivity, system owners must make decisions regarding how to mitigate risks and ensure resilience and trust. This paper provides an overview of research efforts related to assessing and managing risks, resilience, and trust with an emphasis on electronic hardware and embedded systems. The research takes a decision-oriented perspective, drawing …

Using Interacting Multiple Model Filters To Indicate Program Risk, Amy Sunshine Smith-Carroll

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Technology development has increased exponentially. Program managers are pushed to accelerate development. There are many resources available to program managers that enable acceleration, such as: additional resources in the form of funding, people and technology. There are also negative impacts to acceleration, such as: inclusion, inexperience program managers, and communication. This research seeks to identify the limit to which a program or project can be accelerated before the program manager begins to accept an unacceptable amount of pre-determined risk.

This research will utilize estimation algorithms used by sensor systems to estimate the current and future state of objects in space. …

A Framework For Adaptive Capacity In Complex Systems, Abdulrahman Alfaqiri

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Complex systems are characterized by their high level of inter-connectivity, ambiguity, and emergence. Therefore, a failure in one element of a system (e.g. cyber layer) due to external or internal disturbances can lead to a cascade effect that may influence all elements of the system. Consequently, the complex system will not be able to perform its functional performance. Threats related to complex systems are very dynamic, fast, complex and damage can be severe. Thus, to respond to the dynamic and unpredictable nature of these threats, complex systems need to be highly adaptive to survive and thrive in the face of …

Intruder Preference And Route Selection: A Gis Data Approach, Griffin Mathews

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requested an Engineering Research and Development Center study incorporating modeling and simulation to determine the selection, amount, and optimal location of sensor suites along the U.S. Border. The study objective is to maximize the probability of detection and apprehension of illegal elements attempting to enter. A study on intruders and their preferences were conducted to create an intruder preference value map to determine the preferred intruder routes taken after crossing the border. The results of this research were integrated into another study on the selection and simulation of sensor suites.

Intruder context and preferences …

Systemic Analysis Of The Use Of Artificial Intelligence (Ai) In Regulating Terrorist Content On Social Media Ecosystem Using Functional Dependency Network Analysis (Fdna), Alaina Roman, C. Ariel Pinto

OUR Journal: ODU Undergraduate Research Journal

This research is a systemic analysis of emerging risks to the use Artificial Intelligence (AI) in regulating terrorist content on social media ecosystems using Functional Dependency Network Analysis (FDNA), a proven system-design-and-analysis tool). The research has three phases: 1) framing the problem by identifying and describing AI ecosystem elements as intended, implied and explicit objectives, discernible attributes, and performance indictors; 2) describing the idealized problem-solved scenario, which includes detailing ‘success’ states of the ecosystem; and 3) systemic risk analysis including identifying failure scenarios for each element and establishing causalities among elemental attributes leading to failure scenarios. This research contributes toward …

Measuring Risks Of Interdependencies In Enterprise Systems: An Application To Ghana’S Salt Enterprise, Yaw Mensah

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the use of Functional Dependency Network Analysis (FDNA) for modeling risks resulting from dependencies among elements of enterprise systems with application to salt processing enterprise in Ghana. FDNA was developed to model dependencies among members of enterprise systems by highlighting two dimensions of dependency: strength and criticality. Nonetheless, the concepts and analytics for these two dimensions of dependencies needed further development and generalization in the context of project management and systems development in developing countries.

Managing risks within the interdependency in enterprise systems through integration will help improve global economic growth. Coherent theory for enterprise integration must …

Modeling The Economic Machine Using Bayesian Inference And Statistical Networks, And Optimal Portfolio Construction Using Operations Research, Richard Yang

ENGS 88 Honors Thesis (AB Students)

In this paper, we propose a network-based model to attempt to connect modern macroeconomic theory with real world economic observations and trends. We find that by extending macroeconomic theory with credit leveraging/deleveraging thresholds, we are able to explain economic cycles in addition to long-term growth. Furthermore, we specifically explore the growth-inflation view of the macro economy as a basis for optimal portfolio construction and efficient asset trading. Connecting our network-based macroeconomic model and our optimal portfolio construction algorithm, we create a novel macroeconomic asset-trading framework.

Quantifying Impact Of Cyber Actions On Missions Or Business Processes: A Multilayer Propagative Approach, Unal Tatar

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Ensuring the security of cyberspace is one of the most significant challenges of the modern world because of its complexity. As the cyber environment is getting more integrated with the real world, the direct impact of cybersecurity problems on actual business frequently occur. Therefore, operational and strategic decision makers in particular need to understand the cyber environment and its potential impact on business. Cyber risk has become a top agenda item for businesses all over the world and is listed as one of the most serious global risks with significant financial implications for businesses.

Risk analysis is one of the …

An Investigation Of General Criteria For Assessing Space Flight Systems Of Diverse Mission Concept Designs, Cindy L. Daniels

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to investigate the general criteria for assessing the technical implementation risk factors of proposed space science missions at the mission concept stage. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Flight Program and Project Management Handbook (NASA, 2012), the mission concept review objectives are “To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed mission concept(s) and its fulfillment of the program's needs and objectives. To determine whether the maturity of the concept and associated planning are sufficient to begin Phase A” (p.33). Experts previously defined two technical risk factors, to assess aspects of the …

Ce 5500: Stochastic Hydrology, University Of Virginia, Julianne Quinn

All ECSTATIC Materials

This document is the syllabus for CE 5500: Stochastic Hydrology by instructor Julianne D. Quinn at the University of Virginia. The course is an elective class, open to upper-level undergraduate and graduate students.

Subjectivity In Failure Mode Effects Analysis (Fmea) Severity Classification Within A Reliability Centered Maintenance (Rcm) Context, Marc Banghart, Kari Babski-Reeves, Linkan Bian, Lesley Strawderman

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This research paper investigated subjectivity in the severity rating of failure modes within a risk analysis process. Although several risk analysis processes can be utilized, the study considered the application of Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA) or Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) due to its common use within the Aerospace Industry. The study investigated both differences in severity selection given varying amounts of experience as well as any association between severity selection and the provided input information. The main goal of the research was to investigate the impact of data quality on severity selection and to identify factors …