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Operational Research Commons™

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2022

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Articles 31 - 60 of 107

Full-Text Articles in Operational Research

Comparing Actively Managed Mutual Fund Categories To Index Funds Using Linear Regression Forecasting And Portfolio Optimization, Luke Weiner May 2022

Comparing Actively Managed Mutual Fund Categories To Index Funds Using Linear Regression Forecasting And Portfolio Optimization, Luke Weiner

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The global investment industry offers a wide variety of investment products especially for individual investors. One such product, index funds, which are younger than actively managed mutual funds, have typically outperformed managed funds. Despite this phenomenon, investors have displayed a tendency to continue investing in actively managed funds. Although only a small percentage of actively managed funds outperform index funds, the costs of actively managed funds are significantly higher. Also, managed fund performances are most often determined by their fund category such as growth or real estate. I wanted to answer the following question for individual investors: can we …

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Forecasting Hypotension By Learning From Multivariate Mixed Responses.., Jodie Ritter May 2022

Forecasting Hypotension By Learning From Multivariate Mixed Responses.., Jodie Ritter

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Blood Pressure is the main determinant of blood flow to organs. Hypotension is defined as a systolic blood pressure less than 90 mmHg or a diastolic blood pressure less than 50 mmHg. The severity and duration of hypotension is associated with low blood flow to organs often result in organ damage and a high mortality rate. Predicting hypotension prior to surgery and during the surgery can reduce the incidence and duration resulting in better patient outcomes. This thesis uses preoperative bloodwork and vital signs as well as perioperative vital signs in 5-minute increments as inputs to forecast hypotension. Hypotension can …

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Finding Core Members Of A Hedonic Game, Daniele M. Vernon-Bido May 2022

Finding Core Members Of A Hedonic Game, Daniele M. Vernon-Bido

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a frequently used paradigm for social simulation; however, there is little evidence of its use in strategic coalition formations. There are few models that explore coalition formation and even fewer that validate their results against an expected outcome. Cooperative game theory is often used to study strategic coalition formation but solving games involving a significant number of agents is computationally intractable. However, there is a natural linkage between ABM and the study of strategic coalition formation. A foundational feature of ABM is the interaction of agents and their environment. Coalition formation is primarily the result of …

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Complex System Governance Leadership, David C. Walters May 2022

Complex System Governance Leadership, David C. Walters

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to develop a systems theory-based framework for leadership in governance of complex systems. Recognizing complexity and uncertainty as norms for the environments in which organizations exist encouraged researchers to suggest complexity theory, complex systems, and complex adaptive systems as appropriate for addressing these conditions. Complex System Governance (CSG), based in systems theory, management cybernetics, and governance, endeavors to provide for the design, execution and evolution of functions that provide control, communication, coordination, and integration at the metasystem level to support operations and continued system existence (viability). From a management cybernetics perspective, CSG leadership has …

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Factors Affecting Hotel Recommendation: Before The Covid-19 Pandemic And After The Reopening, Boran Kim May 2022

Factors Affecting Hotel Recommendation: Before The Covid-19 Pandemic And After The Reopening, Boran Kim

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

During the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous people lost their lives, and a lot of industries were affected. The hospitality industry was especially affected due to social distancing, travel restrictions, and safety issues. During that time, not only did customers' expectations change but their recommendation of hotels to friends and colleagues also changed. The current study used five factors (i.e., cleanliness, location, room, service, and value) to discover which factors were affecting hotel recommendation before the COVID-19 pandemic and after the reopening. This study used secondary data (online surveys) from one of the well-known integrated resorts located in the western United States. …

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A Study Of Scheduling Problems With Sequence Dependent Restrictions And Preferences, Nitin Srinath May 2022

A Study Of Scheduling Problems With Sequence Dependent Restrictions And Preferences, Nitin Srinath

All Dissertations

In some applications like fabric dying, semiconductor wafer processing, and flexible manufacturing, the machines being used to process jobs must be set up and serviced frequently. These setup processes and associated setup times between jobs often depend on the jobs and the sequence in which jobs are placed onto machines. That is, the scheduling of jobs on machines must account for the sequence-dependent setup times as well. These setup times can be a major factor in operational costs. In fabric dyeing processes, the sequence in which jobs are processed is also important for quality, i.e., there is a strong preference …

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The Impact Of Reliability In Conceptual Design - An Integrated Trade-Off Analysis, Tevari James Barker May 2022

The Impact Of Reliability In Conceptual Design - An Integrated Trade-Off Analysis, Tevari James Barker

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Research presented in this paper focuses on developing models to estimate the systemreliability of Unmanned Ground Vehicles using knowledge and data from similar systems. Traditional reliability approaches often require detailed knowledge of a system and are used in later design stages as well as development, operational test and evaluation, and operations. The critical role of reliability and its impact on acquisition program performance, cost, and schedule motivate the need for improved system reliability models in the early design stages. Reliability is often a stand-alone requirement and not fully included in performance and life cycle cost models. This research seeks to …

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Supervised Representation Learning For Improving Prediction Performance In Medical Decision Support Applications, Phawis Thammasorn May 2022

Supervised Representation Learning For Improving Prediction Performance In Medical Decision Support Applications, Phawis Thammasorn

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Machine learning approaches for prediction play an integral role in modern-day decision supports system. An integral part of the process is extracting interest variables or features to describe the input data. Then, the variables are utilized for training machine-learning algorithms to map from the variables to the target output. After the training, the model is validated with either validation or testing data before making predictions with a new dataset. Despite the straightforward workflow, the process relies heavily on good feature representation of data. Engineering suitable representation eases the subsequent actions and copes with many practical issues that potentially prevent the …

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Predicting The Likelihood And Scale Of Wildfires In California Using Meteorological And Vegetation Data, Matthew Walters May 2022

Predicting The Likelihood And Scale Of Wildfires In California Using Meteorological And Vegetation Data, Matthew Walters

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Wildfires have devastating ecological, environmental, economical, and public health impacts through the deterioration of water and air quality, CO2 emissions, property damage, and lung illnesses. The early detection and prevention of wildfires allow for the minimization of these risks. The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in wildfire detection and prediction has been highly researched as a tool to assist firefighters in stopping wildfires in its early stages. The three common wildfire prediction categories include image and video detection, behavior prediction, and susceptibility prediction. Data such as climate, weather, vegetation, satellite images, and historical wildfire data is most commonly used. Many …

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An Elliptical Cover Problem In Drone Delivery Network Design And Its Solution Algorithms, Yanchao Liu Apr 2022

An Elliptical Cover Problem In Drone Delivery Network Design And Its Solution Algorithms, Yanchao Liu

Industrial and Systems Engineering Faculty Research Publications

Given n demand points in a geographic area, the elliptical cover problem is to determine the location of p depots (anywhere in the area) so as to minimize the maximum distance of an economical delivery trip in which a delivery vehicle starts from the nearest depot to a demand point, visits the demand point and then returns to the second nearest depot to that demand point. We show that this problem is NP-hard, and adapt Cooper’s alternating locate-allocate heuristic to find locally optimal solutions for both the point-coverage and area-coverage scenarios. Experiments show that most locally optimal solutions perform similarly …

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The Traveling Salesman Problem: An Analysis And Comparison Of Metaheuristics And Algorithms, Mason Helmick Apr 2022

The Traveling Salesman Problem: An Analysis And Comparison Of Metaheuristics And Algorithms, Mason Helmick

Senior Honors Theses

One of the most investigated topics in operations research is the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) and the algorithms that can be used to solve it. Despite its relatively simple formulation, its computational difficulty keeps it and potential solution methods at the forefront of current research. This paper defines and analyzes numerous proposed solutions to the TSP in order to facilitate understanding of the problem. Additionally, the efficiencies of different heuristics are studied and compared to the aforementioned algorithms’ accuracy, as a quick algorithm is often formulated at the expense of an exact solution.

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Multiagent Routing Problem With Dynamic Target Arrivals Solved Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Andrew E. Mogan Mar 2022

Multiagent Routing Problem With Dynamic Target Arrivals Solved Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Andrew E. Mogan

Theses and Dissertations

This research formulates and solves the multiagent routing problem with dynamic target arrivals (MRP-DTA), a stochastic system wherein a team of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (AUAVs) executes a strike coordination and reconnaissance (SCAR) mission against a notional adversary. Dynamic target arrivals that occur during the mission present the team of AUAVs with a sequential decision-making process which we model via a Markov Decision Process (MDP). To combat the curse of dimensionality, we construct and implement a hybrid approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithmic framework that employs a parametric cost function approximation (CFA) which augments a direct lookahead (DLA) model via a …

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Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network With Prediction Smoothing And Adversarial Class Thresholds, Noah M. Miller Mar 2022

Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network With Prediction Smoothing And Adversarial Class Thresholds, Noah M. Miller

Theses and Dissertations

Using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for image classification for each frame in a video is a very common technique. Unfortunately, CNNs are very brittle and have a tendency to be over confident in their predictions. This can lead to what we will refer to as “flickering,” which is when the predictions between frames jump back and forth between classes. In this paper, new methods are proposed to combat these shortcomings. This paper utilizes a Bayesian CNN which allows for a distribution of outputs on each data point instead of just a point estimate. These distributions are then smoothed over multiple …

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Analysis Of Container Shipments For Ustranscom, John N. Campos Y Campos Mar 2022

Analysis Of Container Shipments For Ustranscom, John N. Campos Y Campos

Theses and Dissertations

USTRANSCOM (United States Transportation Command) sends containers to various overseas destinations, mainly commercial container shipping companies. Delivering the containers to the destinations on time is important to support the United States (US) Forces deployed in foreign countries. This study analyzes container shipment records for two years from 2019 to 2021 and prepares insights for USTRANSCOM. This study utilizes descriptive statistics, data visualization, and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). According to the records, almost half of the containers (41.25%) were delivered late for one day or longer. The container with the longest delay took 408 days. Major reasons for delays included …

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Team Air Combat Using Model-Based Reinforcement Learning, David A. Mottice Mar 2022

Team Air Combat Using Model-Based Reinforcement Learning, David A. Mottice

Theses and Dissertations

We formulate the first generalized air combat maneuvering problem (ACMP), called the MvN ACMP, wherein M friendly AUCAVs engage against N enemy AUCAVs, developing a Markov decision process (MDP) model to control the team of M Blue AUCAVs. The MDP model leverages a 5-degree-of-freedom aircraft state transition model and formulates a directed energy weapon capability. Instead, a model-based reinforcement learning approach is adopted wherein an approximate policy iteration algorithmic strategy is implemented to attain high-quality approximate policies relative to a high performing benchmark policy. The ADP algorithm utilizes a multi-layer neural network for the value function approximation regression mechanism. One-versus-one …

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Air Force Specialty Code Assignment Optimization, Rebecca L. Reynolds Mar 2022

Air Force Specialty Code Assignment Optimization, Rebecca L. Reynolds

Theses and Dissertations

Each year, the Air Force Personnel Center determines which career field newly commissioned officers will serve under during their time in the Air Force. The career fields are assigned while considering five priorities, dictated by Headquarters Air Force, Manpower and Personnel: target number of cadets, education requirements, average cadet percentile, cadet source of commissioning, and cadet preference. A mixed-integer linear program with elasticized constraints is developed to generate cadet assignments according to these priorities. Each elasticized constraint carries an associated reward and penalty, which is used to dictate the importance of the constraint within the model. A subsequent analysis is …

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Military Personnel Flight Customer Wait Time Reduction Model Using Simulation, Nicholas C. Anderson Mar 2022

Military Personnel Flight Customer Wait Time Reduction Model Using Simulation, Nicholas C. Anderson

Theses and Dissertations

Customers at Military Personnel Flights (MPFs) have been experiencing long wait times. These customers are typically employees of the United States Air Force and every moment spent waiting for service is a moment they are away from their actual jobs. By reducing the mean wait time of MPF customers, manhours can be saved and customer complaints may be alleviated. This research uses data collected from an MPF to build a discrete-event simulation model of an MPF. A full factorial experimental design was conducted in the model using five factors. The factors included the total number of employees, the total number …

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A Decision Support Simulation To Analyze Scheduling Alternatives For Applicant Processing At Military Entrance Processing Stations (Meps), Jonathan M. Escamilla Mar 2022

A Decision Support Simulation To Analyze Scheduling Alternatives For Applicant Processing At Military Entrance Processing Stations (Meps), Jonathan M. Escamilla

Theses and Dissertations

Applicant processing at Military Entrance Processing Stations (MEPS) is conducted via a batch arrival process by which all applicants arrive at the beginning of the processing day. Pursuit of alternate processing scenarios has never progressed beyond the pilot stage, possibly because the Command lacks a general decision support model to evaluate the impacts of proposed policies on applicant processing operations. This research creates a discrete event simulation of MEPS applicant processing operations and applies the model to three alternative applicant processing scenarios: split-shift, appointment- based, and express-lane. Results are examined and compared to benchmarks using multiple performance measurements.

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An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell Mar 2022

An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell

Theses and Dissertations

Officer retention in the Air Force has been researched many times in an attempt to better predict the personnel needs of the Air Force for the future. There has been previous work done in regards to specific AFSCs and how their retention compares to specific yet similar private sector jobs. This study considers different econometric time series statistics as a feature space and an average Air Force officer separation rate as the response variable for the multivariate time series analysis deep learning techniques. The econometric indicators used in this study are New Business Formations, New Durable Good Orders, and the …

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Screening Heuristics For The Evaluation Of Covert Network Node Insertion Scenarios, Andrew E. Pekarek Mar 2022

Screening Heuristics For The Evaluation Of Covert Network Node Insertion Scenarios, Andrew E. Pekarek

Theses and Dissertations

The majority of research on covert networks uses social network analysis (SNA) to determine critical members of the network to either kill or capture for the purpose of network destabilization. This thesis takes the opposite approach and evaluates potential scenarios for inserting an agent into a covert network for information gathering purposes or future disruption operations. Due to the substantial number of potential insertion scenarios in a large network, this research proposes three screening heuristics that leverage SNA measures to reduce the solution space before applying a simple search heuristic.

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Optimal Aircraft Maneuvering Models For Cruise Missile Engagement: A Modeling And Computational Study, Izaiah G. Laduke Mar 2022

Optimal Aircraft Maneuvering Models For Cruise Missile Engagement: A Modeling And Computational Study, Izaiah G. Laduke

Theses and Dissertations

Given the increased threat and proliferation of adversary military capabilities, this research seeks to develop reasonably accurate and computationally tractable models to optimally maneuver aircraft to intercept cruise missile attacks. The research leveraged mathematical programming to model the problem, informed by constraints representing a system of (temporal) difference equations. The research began by comparing six models having alternative representations of velocity and acceleration constraints while analyzing situations with stationary targets. The Multiple Aircraft, Multiple Stationary Target Engagement Problem with Box Constraint Bounds (MAMSTEP-BC) Model yielded superior overall performance and was further analyzed through alternative mathematical programming model enhancements to create …

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Comparison Of Lightning Warning Radii Distributions, Michael M. Maestas Mar 2022

Comparison Of Lightning Warning Radii Distributions, Michael M. Maestas

Theses and Dissertations

Previous research investigating lightning warning radii about the Cape Canaveral space launch facilities have focused on reducing these radii from either 5 nautical miles (NM) to 4 NM or from 6 NM to 5 NM depending on the structures being protected. Some of these findings have suggested the possibility of both a seasonal difference (warm versus cold) and lightning detection events (cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) or total lightning (TL)) impacting these radii and associated risk levels. Utilizing the 2017-2020 data provided by the 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick Space Force Base via the Mesoscale Eastern Range Lightning Information System (MERLIN), this …

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Inverse Optimization: Inferring Unknown Instance Parameters From Observed Decisions, Keith Batista Mar 2022

Inverse Optimization: Inferring Unknown Instance Parameters From Observed Decisions, Keith Batista

Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this research is to develop procedures that estimate selected, unknown parameters over an adversary's investment portfolio across a set of new or existing technologies. To solve for the selected unknown parameters, it is assumed that the adversary is maximizing the portfolio optimization problem and investing along the efficient frontier. The first technique is when an unknown risk attitude exists but all other parameters were known (i.e. expected return, variance, covariance). An adaptive line search technique that iteratively solved the portfolio optimization problem until the adversary's risk parameter was found. The second problem that was solved was when …

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Training Logic And Random Forest Models To Predict It Spending, Jacob P. Batt Mar 2022

Training Logic And Random Forest Models To Predict It Spending, Jacob P. Batt

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force must modernize, but the distribution of funds for technology remains as tight as ever. To this end, the Air Force Audit Agency is looking to utilize machine learning techniques to enhance their capabilities. This research explores Logistic Regression and Random Forest modeling to streamline data collection and cost classification. The final Logistic Regression model identified 4 significant attributes out of the 36 given and was 85 accurate in predicting whether a purchase amount was over or under $10,000. To expand beyond binary classification, a six-category classification Random Forest model was developed. It identified 6 significant attributes and …

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Narrative Analysis Of Open-Source Social Media Activity In The Indopacom Aor, Aaron K. Glenn Mar 2022

Narrative Analysis Of Open-Source Social Media Activity In The Indopacom Aor, Aaron K. Glenn

Theses and Dissertations

Emotion classification can be a powerful tool to derive narratives from social media data. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) can meet or exceed the performance of state-of-the-art traditional machine learning techniques using exclusively open-source data and models. Specifically, these results show that RNN variants can produce more than an 8% gain in accuracy in comparison to Logistic Regression and SVM techniques and a 15% gain over Random Forest when using FastText embeddings. This research found a statistical significance in the performance of a single layer Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model over a 2-layer stacked Bi-LSTM model. This research also found …

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Approximate Dynamic Programming For An Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Routing Problem With Obstacles And Stochastic Target Arrivals, Kassie M. Gurnell Mar 2022

Approximate Dynamic Programming For An Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Routing Problem With Obstacles And Stochastic Target Arrivals, Kassie M. Gurnell

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force is investing in artificial intelligence (AI) to speed analysis in efforts to modernize the use of autonomous unmanned combat aerial vehicles (AUCAVs) in strike coordination and reconnaissance (SCAR) missions. This research examines an AUCAVs ability to execute target strikes and provide reconnaissance in a SCAR mission. An orienteering problem is formulated as anMarkov decision process (MDP) model wherein a single AUCAV must optimize its target route to aid in eliminating time-sensitive targets and collect imagery of requested named areas of interest while evading surface-to-air missile (SAM) battery threats imposed as obstacles. The AUCAV adjusts its …

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Assessing The United States Foreign Assistance Activities Impact On Violent Conflicts, Daniel F. Feze Mar 2022

Assessing The United States Foreign Assistance Activities Impact On Violent Conflicts, Daniel F. Feze

Theses and Dissertations

The Global Fragility Act, H.R.2116 116th Cong. (2019), “directs the Department of State to establish the interagency Global Fragility Initiative to stabilize conflict-affected areas and prevent violence globally, and establishes funds to support such efforts”. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has identified deteriorating economies, weak or illegitimate political institutions, and competition over natural resources as causes of violence, extremism and instability (USAID, 2021). The agency gives priority to mitigating the causes and consequences of violent conflicts, instability and extremism and funds programs and activities to accomplish that (USAID, 2021). With this study, we aim to quantitatively assess …

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The Cyber Wargame Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, Alex Hoffendahl Mar 2022

The Cyber Wargame Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, Alex Hoffendahl

Theses and Dissertations

In the modern operational landscape, strategic decisions are made and executed, under uncertain conditions, with many potential constraints and limited information. The end goal of these decisions is to minimize and mitigate the effect of adversarial threats, which may or may not act in line with previous assumptions. Wargaming is a powerful tool that allows for the practical implementation of theoretical knowledge into real-world scenarios, enhancing decision-makers critical thinking and problem solving skills. Furthermore, including cyber-effects in a wargame leads to a broader decision scope for an entire operation. This research aims to enhance the analytical capabilities and overall usability …

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A Decision Analysis Framework To Consider Space Congestion In Orbit Selection, Anthony J. Correale Mar 2022

A Decision Analysis Framework To Consider Space Congestion In Orbit Selection, Anthony J. Correale

Theses and Dissertations

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is becoming more congested, which increases the risk to space missions. Decision makers will need to consider this increase in congestion as an increased risk within their mission engineering process. This thesis proposes a methodology to create and implement a value structure that quantitatively scores a range of orbits based on congestion factors of each orbit and how well each orbit meets mission requirements. This thesis demonstrates this methodology on a set of circular LEO orbits defined by altitude and inclination, and scores this illustrative scenario based on notional mission measures and expected number of encounters …

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Strategic Energy Master Planning For Carbon Neutrality, Marie Patterson Jan 2022

Strategic Energy Master Planning For Carbon Neutrality, Marie Patterson

CSU Journal of Sustainability and Climate Change

Universities across the United States are generating goals to be more sustainable and carbon neutral. The energy used in existing buildings on campuses amount to a large volume of greenhouse emissions and must be reduced to help achieve neutrality goals. Strategic Energy Master Plans are instrumental to support these goals through the development of recommendations to reduce energy. Calculating the energy use intensity for existing buildings, a main component of a Strategic Energy Master Plan, can help the campus understand where energy is being used the most. With this information the highest energy consuming buildings can be the focus of …

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